# MODEL PERFORMANCE

Public grading ledger for benchmark-graded team forecasts and closing-line tracked player props.

What this page is: Team forecasts are graded against a benchmark number, while prop metrics only use rows with closing-line data. What it is not: a normalized flat-stake ROI ledger yet. We are not publishing ROI until price and stake history line up cleanly across both tracks.

179

Benchmark Games

30 day sample

49.7%

Benchmark Win Rate

Benchmark-graded team forecasts

0

Awaiting Grade

resolved team forecasts missing benchmark grade

HIDDEN

ROI Status

stake and price ledger not normalized

Rain Man Prop Intel: 59.7% HR | -0.11 CLV (493)
Tracking since Mar 2026
Benchmark-graded team forecasts

## Performance View

Uses only rm_forecast_accuracy_v2 rows with real benchmark grades in the selected event window.

ROI is intentionally hidden until stake sizing and price history are normalized across the public game and prop ledgers.

## Performance by Confidence Tier · Team Forecasts

⚡⚡⚡⚡A+
Win Rate 69.2%
Record 9W - 4L
Sample 13 forecasts
Small sample. Treat this tier as directional, not stable.
⚡⚡⚡A
Win Rate 42.9%
Record 6W - 8L
Sample 14 forecasts
Small sample. Treat this tier as directional, not stable.
⚡⚡B+
Win Rate 48.4%
Record 61W - 66L
Sample 127 forecasts
⚡B
Win Rate 50%
Record 13W - 12L
Sample 25 forecasts

## By League · Team Forecasts

NHL
Graded 59
Win Rate 54.2%
A+ Rate 100%
NBA
Graded 53
Win Rate 49.1%
A+ Rate 50%
MLB
Graded 52
Win Rate 52%
A+ Rate 50%
NCAAB
Graded 14
Win Rate 28.6%
A+ Rate 0%
Bundesliga
Graded 1
Win Rate 0%

## Recently Graded Team Forecasts

Date | League | Matchup | Forecast | Closing Market | Tier | Result | Outcome
--- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---
Mar 30 | MLB | HOU vs BOS | HOU +1.5 / ML -108 | HOU +1.5 (-154) / ML +110 | B+ | HOU 8 - BOS 1 | W
Mar 30 | NHL | COL vs CGY | COL -1.5 / ML -340 | COL -1.5 (-141) / ML -380 | A+ | COL 9 - CGY 2 | W
Mar 30 | MLB | ATL vs OAK | ATL -1.5 / ML -145 | ATL -1.5 (+150) / ML -133 | B | ATL 4 - OAK 0 | W
Mar 30 | MLB | MIL vs TB | MIL -1.5 / ML -145 | MIL -1.5 (+135) / ML -161 | B | MIL 2 - TB 3 | L
Mar 30 | MLB | STL vs NYM | STL +1.5 / ML +135 | STL +1.5 (-131) / ML +125 | B+ | STL 2 - NYM 4 | L
Mar 30 | MLB | CHC vs LAA | CHC -1.5 / ML -175 | CHC -1.5 (+104) / ML -190 | B+ | CHC 7 - LAA 2 | W
Mar 31 | MLB | LAD vs CLE | LAD -1.5 / ML -210 | LAD -1.5 (+108) / ML -190 | A+ | LAD 2 - CLE 4 | L
Mar 31 | NHL | ANA vs TOR | TOR +1.5 / ML +150 | TOR +1.5 (-154) / ML +155 | A+ | ANA 4 - TOR 5 | W
Mar 30 | NBA | MEM vs PHX | MEM +12.5 / ML +450 | MEM +12.5 (-110) / ML +500 | A | MEM 105 - PHX 131 | L
Mar 30 | NBA | ATL vs BOS | BOS +2.5 / ML +105 | BOS +2.5 (-110) / ML +119 | B+ | ATL 112 - BOS 102 | L
Mar 30 | NBA | MIA vs PHI | MIA +2.5 / ML +105 | MIA +2.5 (-113) / ML +115 | A | MIA 119 - PHI 109 | W
Mar 30 | NHL | NYI vs PIT | PIT +1.5 / ML +105 | PIT +1.5 (-230) / ML +110 | A+ | NYI 3 - PIT 8 | W
Mar 30 | MLB | TOR vs COL | TOR -1.5 / ML -260 | TOR -1.5 (-133) / ML -300 | B+ | TOR 5 - COL 14 | L
Mar 31 | NBA | UTA vs CLE | UTA +16.5 / ML +1050 | UTA +16.5 (-110) / ML +900 | B+ | UTA 113 - CLE 122 | W
Mar 31 | NHL | VGK vs VAN | VGK -1.5 / ML -310 | VGK -1.5 (-145) / ML -357 | A+ | VGK 4 - VAN 2 | W
Mar 31 | NBA | LAL vs WAS | WAS +15.5 / ML +600 | WAS +15.5 (-108) / ML +800 | A | LAL 120 - WAS 101 | L
Mar 31 | MLB | SEA vs NYY | SEA +1.5 / ML -118 | SEA +1.5 (-175) / ML +100 | B+ | SEA 2 - NYY 1 | W
Mar 30 | MLB | MIA vs CWS | MIA -1.5 / ML -130 | MIA -1.5 (+150) / ML -149 | B | MIA 4 - CWS 9 | L
Mar 30 | NBA | DAL vs MIN | DAL +8.5 / ML +195 | DAL +8.5 (-110) / ML +275 | A | DAL 94 - MIN 124 | L
Mar 30 | MLB | BAL vs TEX | BAL -1.5 / ML -135 | BAL -1.5 (+155) / ML -130 | B+ | BAL 2 - TEX 5 | L
Mar 31 | MLB | SD vs SF | SD +1.5 / ML -125 | SD +1.5 (-200) / ML -118 | A+ | SD 2 - SF 3 | W
Mar 30 | MLB | PHI vs WSH | WSH +1.5 / ML +135 | WSH +1.5 (-141) / ML +145 | B | PHI 2 - WSH 13 | W
Mar 30 | MLB | CIN vs PIT | PIT +1.5 / ML +120 | PIT +1.5 (-189) / ML +112 | B | CIN 2 - PIT 0 | L
Mar 30 | MLB | KC vs MIN | KC -1.5 / ML -140 | KC -1.5 (-119) / ML -278 | B+ | KC 3 - MIN 1 | W
Mar 31 | NHL | SJ vs STL | STL +1.5 / ML -150 | STL +1.5 (-285) | A+ | SJ 5 - STL 4 | W
Mar 30 | NBA | SAS vs CHI | CHI +17.5 / ML +900 | CHI +17.5 (-109) / ML +1050 | A | SAS 129 - CHI 114 | W
Mar 31 | NBA | OKC vs DET | OKC -11.5 / ML -750 | OKC -11.5 (-111) / ML -609 | A+ | OKC 114 - DET 110 | L
Mar 29 | NHL | NJ vs CHI | NJ -1.5 / ML -175 | NJ -1.5 (+152) / ML -165 | B+ | NJ 5 - CHI 3 | W
Mar 29 | NCAAB | DUKE vs CONN | DUKE -5.5 / ML -280 | DUKE -5.5 (-110) / ML -245 | B+ | DUKE 72 - CONN 73 | L
Mar 29 | NHL | PHI vs DAL | DAL -1.5 / ML -170 | DAL -1.5 (+148) / ML -172 | B+ | PHI 2 - DAL 1 | L
Mar 29 | NHL | CAR vs MTL | CAR -1.5 / ML -175 | CAR -1.5 (+140) / ML -170 | B+ | CAR 1 - MTL 3 | L
Mar 29 | NHL | CBJ vs BOS | BOS +1.5 / ML +120 | BOS +1.5 (-190) / ML +135 | B+ | CBJ 3 - BOS 4 | W
Mar 29 | NHL | TB vs NSH | TB -1.5 / ML -195 | TB -1.5 (+138) / ML -176 | B+ | TB 3 - NSH 2 | L
Mar 29 | MLB | SEA vs CLE | CLE +1.5 / ML +128 | CLE +1.5 (-175) / ML +123 | B+ | SEA 8 - CLE 0 | L
Mar 13 | Bundesliga | BMG vs STP | STP +1.5 / ML +340 | STP +1.5 (-312) | A | BMG 2 - STP 0 | L
Mar 29 | NBA | DEN vs GSW | GSW +11.5 / ML +420 | GSW +11.5 (-109) / ML +460 | B+ | DEN 116 - GSW 93 | L
Mar 29 | NBA | NOP vs HOU | HOU -6 / ML -280 | HOU -6 (-109) / ML -239 | B+ | NOP 102 - HOU 134 | W
Mar 29 | NHL | NYR vs FLA | FLA +1.5 / ML +118 | FLA +1.5 (-192) | B+ | NYR 3 - FLA 1 | L
Mar 29 | NBA | OKC vs NYK | NYK +8 / ML +250 | NYK +8 (-110) / ML +280 | B+ | OKC 89 - NYK 79 | L
Mar 29 | NCAAB | MICH vs TENN | TENN +9 / ML +295 | TENN +7.5 (-111) / ML +240 | B+ | MICH 95 - TENN 62 | L
Mar 28 | MLB | HOU vs LAA | LAA +2 / ML +130 | LAA +1.5 (-175) / ML -223 | B+ | HOU 11 - LAA 9 | L
Mar 29 | MLB | HOU vs LAA | LAA +1.5 / ML +162 | LAA +1.5 (-133) | B+ | HOU 9 - LAA 7 | L
Mar 28 | NHL | COL vs WPG | COL -1.5 / ML -265 | COL -1.5 (+610) / ML -235 | B+ | COL 2 - WPG 4 | L
Mar 29 | NBA | POR vs WAS | WAS +16.5 / ML +625 | WAS +16.5 (-110) / ML +900 | A | POR 123 - WAS 88 | L
Mar 28 | NHL | STL vs TOR | STL PK / ML -135 | STL PK (-126) / ML -145 | B+ | STL 5 - TOR 1 | W
Mar 28 | MLB | ATL vs KC | KC +2 / ML +140 | KC +1.5 (-167) / ML -170 | B | ATL 6 - KC 2 | L
Mar 29 | MLB | ATL vs KC | ATL -0.3 / ML -145 | ATL -1.5 (+160) | B+ | ATL 1 - KC 4 | L
Mar 29 | MLB | MIL vs CWS | MIL -0.2 / ML -190 | MIL -1.5 (+120) | B+ | MIL 9 - CWS 7 | W
Mar 28 | MLB | MIL vs CWS | CWS +2.5 / ML +190 | CWS +1.5 (-133) / ML -257 | B+ | MIL 6 - CWS 1 | L
Mar 29 | NBA | MIL vs LAC | MIL +17.5 / ML +750 | MIL +17.5 (-110) / ML +800 | B+ | MIL 113 - LAC 127 | W

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## Rain Man's Methodology

### Rain Man's Prop Intel

Rain Man's direction-agnostic prop intelligence — analyzing player performance data, matchup dynamics, and market movement across all major sports.

### Rain Man's Composite

Rain Man's multi-signal composite — blending prop intelligence, AI analysis, sharp interest tracking, and closing line value projections into a unified confidence score.

### CLV Verification

Every pick is tracked against closing lines to verify genuine edge. Positive CLV means we consistently beat the market — the gold standard of forecasting accuracy.

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