Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
It’s easy to see that if you have an edge, it’s with the over. A $100 bet on the over has a 53 percent chance of winning $100 and a 47 percent
chance of losing $100. That’s $6 profit per $100 bet, or 6.0 percent return on investment. Whether that is a good bet is up to you. You could work out the math on the under if you want, though if the expected value of the over is positive you know the expected value of the
under is negative. A bet of $120 on the under has a 47 percent chance of winning $100 and a 53 percent chance of losing $120. That’s a loss of
$16.60 on an investment of $120, or a loss of 13.8 percent. So it’s bet the over or don’t bet on this prop. Problem 10
Stardust has a prop on Maryland free throw attempts versus Duke three-point attempts. The spread is 6.5. Thus you can bet

CURRENT SUMMARY:
It’s easy to see that if you have an edge, it’s with the over. A $100 bet on the over has a 53 percent chance of winning $100 and a 47 percent
chance of losing $100.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has provided several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Thus you can bet on Maryland free
throw attempts plus 6.5 versus Duke three-point attempts, or on Duke three-point attempts minus 6.5 versus Maryland free-throw attempts. Duke
has been allowing 18.0 free-throw attempts per game, and has been attempting 26.6 three pointers per game. Using those numbers as the
expectations for the upcoming game, is Duke -6.5 a good bet at -110? First you need to add 6.5 to Maryland’s free-throw attempts or subtract 6.5 from Duke’s three-point attempts. You don’t need to do both, but I
will do both here. If Maryland has 24.5 and Duke has 26.6, you have a set of numbers that is beyond the range of appendix C. If Maryland has 18.0 and Duke
has 20.1, you still are beyond the range of appendix C. When your numbers are too large for appendix C, you look at table 7

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Thus you can bet on Maryland free
throw attempts plus 6.5 versus Duke three-point attempts, or on Duke three-point attempts minus 6.5 versus Maryland free-throw attempts. Duke
has been allowing 18.0 free-throw attempts per game, and has been attempting 26.6 three pointers per game.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific kno


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
When the difference between your two numbers is 2.1, you have a 6535 situation, or maybe 66-34. Duke has about a 65 percent chance of winning, and Maryland has about a 35 percent chance of winning. Betting $110 on Duke gives you a 65 percent chance of winning $100 and a 35 percent chance of losing $110. That’s an expected win of
$26.50 on an investment of $110, an expected return of 24 percent. Problem 11
Several sportsbooks have a prop on free throws made: Duke -1.5 or Maryland +1.5. The line on Duke -1.5 is -120. Duke has been allowing

CURRENT SUMMARY:
When the difference between your two numbers is 2.1, you have a 6535 situation, or maybe 66-34. Duke has about a 65 percent chance of winning, and Maryland has about a 35 percent chance of winning.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Saturday’s game, Duke’s expectation is to make 15.4 free throws and Maryland’s is to make 12.4 free throws. Is Duke -1.5 free throws a good bet at -120? You have to make the adjustment of 1.5, and it does not matter whether you do it to Duke or to Maryland. You can look at 13.9 versus 12.4 in
appendix C, or you can look at 15.4 versus 13.9. Either of those requires interpolation. Or you can look at 15.5 and 14.0, which yields 36-57-7. You need to split the ties between the two sides, since there cannot be a tie on the final result. Splitting the ties gives you 39-61. That’s the same
thing you would have gotten had you used table 7 instead of appendix C. The 39-61 means Maryland has a 39 percent chance of having most free throws with the 1.5 it is given, and Duke has a 61 percent chance of

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Saturday’s game, Duke’s expectation is to make 15.4 free throws and Maryland’s is to make 12.4 free throws. Is Duke -1.5 free throws a good bet at -120?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
One popular prop is total wins that a team will accumulate during the coming season. The sportsbook posts numbers for totals wins, and the
customers can bet over or under. This chapter will not teach you how to figure out the number of games any team will win. But this chapter will enable you to evaluate any
season-win prop that you think looks attractive. Time Value of Money
When you bet totals, you must consider the time value of money. You will be making your bets before the season starts, and if you have
winning tickets you will be cashing them in after the season ends. Your NFL season bets will tie up your money for four months. Bets on season totals in baseball, basketball, and hockey will mean holding
tickets for six months before being able to cash winners. You won’t be able to cas

CURRENT SUMMARY:
One popular prop is total wins that a team will accumulate during the coming season. The sportsbook posts numbers for totals wins, and the
customers can bet over or under.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has provided several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Suppose, for example, you bet on an NFL team to have more than 5.5 wins, and your team
starts off the season with six straight wins. You have a certain winner, but you will have to wait until the season ends before cashing your ticket. The reason is if anything happens that results in the season not being completed, all tickets, including yours, will be refunded. Thus your team
winning its sixth game has not really given you a certain winner, just an almost-certain winner. Suppose you buy an NFL season-wins ticket in August and it wins. You finally get to cash it in early January. The sportsbook has had the
use of your money for more than four months. Baseball is even worse; you buy your ticket in March, cash it in October, and in the process give the
sportsbook use of your money for more

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Suppose, for example, you bet on an NFL team to have more than 5.5 wins, and your team
starts off the season with six straight wins. You have a certain winner, but you will have to wait until the season ends before cashing your ticket.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this. I'm supposed to help create a knowledge card based on the given excerpt. The user has provided a specific structure, so I need to follow that exactly.

First, I'll read thr


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The way to handle that is to expect a higher win rate from tickets that must be held for extended time periods. Ten percent return is great for
letting a sportsbook hold your money for a day; but a ten percent return may not be generous enough if your money will be tied up for many
months. Expect the same return for the use of your money from long-term bets as you would expect from other long-term uses of your money. You
expect compensation for three things. You expect compensation for the time value of your money. You expect compensation for the loss of
liquidity waiting for the investment to mature. You expect compensation for the risk you are taking. A CD is a use of your money that involves loss of liquidity for the term of the CD, but zero risk. What return would be sufficient to enti

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The way to handle that is to expect a higher win rate from tickets that must be held for extended time periods. Ten percent return is great for
letting a sportsbook hold your money for a day; but a ten percent return may not be generous enough if your money will be tied up for many
months.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific kno


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
What return would be sufficient to entice you to
invest funds in a CD? Expect the same from a sports bet as far as compensation for the time value of your money and the loss of liquidity, and
expect more expected return on a sports bet to compensate you for the risk involved because you may lose the bet. Theoretically you should not expect too much return for the risk involved in futures bets because that risk is diversifiable. If you get heavily
involved in sports futures, making bets on a variety of teams, your overall risk will be considerably lower than if you were to bet that total amount
of money on only one team. Would you make a long-term investment that promises a certain 10 percent per year but must be held at least six months before you can cash
it in? Perhaps you would. If not,

CURRENT SUMMARY:
What return would be sufficient to entice you to
invest funds in a CD? Expect the same from a sports bet as far as compensation for the time value of your money and the loss of liquidity, and
expect more expected return on a sports bet to compensate you for the risk involved because you may lose the bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has provided several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
There must be some number that
would entice you to make a riskless investment that you could not cash for six months. Decide for yourself what that number is. Then add in an
amount of your choosing to compensate you for the risk involved in futures bets. The result will be an expected return per year that you can use to
evaluate all long-term bets. Make only those bets that meet your own personal requirement for expected return. Suppose you require 30 percent per year, just to pick a number out of the air. That means a bet that could be cashed in six months at the
earliest would need to have an expected return of at least 15 percent. A bet that could be cashed in four months at the earliest would need to have
an expected return of at least 10 percent. If you find a season-win bet that prom

CURRENT SUMMARY:
There must be some number that
would entice you to make a riskless investment that you could not cash for six months. Decide for yourself what that number is.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific kno


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Requirements by Sport
The NFL regular season lasts four months. Thus NFL season-win bets are four-month investments. Other major bettable sports have six-month seasons. When you bet season totals for baseball, basketball, or ice hockey, you are making sixmonth investments. An Example: Math Boy
Math Boy says on BJ21.com:
I think this is the major deterrent for gamblers who are building their bankroll. I had found a large, solid book that was offering -400 that
the electoral college would not be abolished by 1/1/2002. Since this takes a constitutional amendment and it was early March of 2001, I
figured this was about as sure a thing as it gets. But I passed it up because right now I want to double my current capital by the end of the
year. In a few years, I would probably jump on that bet. I

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Requirements by Sport
The NFL regular season lasts four months. Thus NFL season-win bets are four-month investments.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has provided several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Probably it was not quite a sure thing, so the
actual expectation probably was less than 25 percent. But Math Boy thought it was a sure thing, and made the investment decision as if the
expected return were 25 percent. Making the investment would have meant tying up his money for ten months. For him, 25 percent was not
sufficient for ten months use of his money; he decided to pass up the opportunity to bet against the electoral college’s being abolished by 1
January 2002. Likely you would have made that bet, but of course for only a small part of your bankroll. Middles on Season Wins

Before the start of the 2001 baseball season, this question was posted on BJ21.com: “There are a number of two- and three-game middles. How much are they worth?” That’s the question addressed in this section.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Probably it was not quite a sure thing, so the
actual expectation probably was less than 25 percent. But Math Boy thought it was a sure thing, and made the investment decision as if the
expected return were 25 percent.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to tackle this. So, the user is asking me to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt and current summary. They've given me specific inst


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Average Teams
Table 8 gives the values of middles for various number of wins for seasons of various lengths. The row is a season length. Currently seasons consist of 16 games in NFL football, 162 in major-league baseball, and 82 in the NBA and the
NHL. There also are rows for other possible season lengths. Interpolating between rows is fine. All the tables in this chapter are based on the binomial distribution. I used Excel to develop them. You can reproduce any number in any of
these tables yourself by using Excel or any similar program that will calculate binomial probabilities for you. Table 8 assumes that a team has a 50 percent chance of winning each game. Of course no team has exactly 50 percent chance of winning
every single game of the year. Each game individually will be associate

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Average Teams
Table 8 gives the values of middles for various number of wins for seasons of various lengths. The row is a season length.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Some
games will be 60-40, some will be 53-47, and so on. But if over the course of a season a team is expected to win around half of its games, table 8
does a good job of describing the likelihood of middles winning. The first column is number of games in the season. Skip the second column for a minute. The third column is the probability of winning a
middle of exactly one game. Here is an example of the application of table 8 to baseball. Look at table 8 to find the probability that an average major-league baseball team will achieve a one-game middle over the course of 162
games. You should find 6.3. That number is in percent, 6.3 percent. If you have found two bets on season wins, and those two bets give you a
middle of one game, you have a 6.3 percent chance of hitting that middle. For

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Some
games will be 60-40, some will be 53-47, and so on. But if over the course of a season a team is expected to win around half of its games, table 8
does a good job of describing the likelihood of middles winning.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you have found two bets on season wins, and those two bets give you a
middle of one game, you have a 6.3 percent chance of hitting that middle. For example, if you have a bet on a team to win fewer than 81.5 games
and also a bet on that same team to win more than 80.5 games, the probability that the team will win exactly 81 games out of 162 is 6.3 percent. Those percentages also apply to a baseball team that is expected to win something slightly different from 81 games. For example, if you
have a bet on a team to win fewer than 85.5 games and also a bet on that same team to win more than 84.5 games, the probably that the team will
win exactly 85 games is about 6.3 percent. The second column in table 8, the column you skipped temporarily, has values equal to half the numbers in the third

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you have found two bets on season wins, and those two bets give you a
middle of one game, you have a 6.3 percent chance of hitting that middle. For example, if you have a bet on a team to win fewer than 81.5 games
and also a bet on that same team to win more than 80.5 games, the probability that the team will win exactly 81 games out of 162 is 6.3 percent.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That’s the same as half a win, and half of 6.3 rounds off to 3.1 or 3.2. The 1.0 column applies to any one-game middle; it does not have to be a middle that contains an integer. For example, a baseball middle
composed of over 80 and under 81 would yield a win if the final win total is either 80 or 81. Each of those is half of 6.3 percent, so the two halves
total 6.3 percent. The final four columns of table 8 show the probability of achieving a middle when you are lucky enough to construct one containing 1.5 to 3
wins. Take for example a combination of over 80.5 wins and under 83.5 wins out of 162 played. The chance of hitting that middle is 18.4 percent
according to table 8. Extra-Strong or Extra-Weak Teams
Middles are more valuable when they involve extra-strong or extra-weak teams than w

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That’s the same as half a win, and half of 6.3 rounds off to 3.1 or 3.2. The 1.0 column applies to any one-game middle; it does not have to be a middle that contains an integer.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Table 9 assumes a team has a 60 percent chance of winning each game, and table 10 assumes a team has a 75 percent chance of winning
each game. A baseball team that is expected to win 75 percent of its games, or 121.5 wins out of 162, would be a truly great baseball team indeed! If you
ever encounter a baseball team that is expected to win say 120 games, and you can construct a one-game middle on season wins, you can look
at table 10 to find that the probability of winning both your bets is 7.2 percent. Compare that to the 6.3 percent number from table 8. The
comparable number of table 9 is 6.4 percent. The numbers that apply to bad teams are the same as the numbers shown in tables 9 and 10. On a one-game middle on a baseball team that
is so bad that it is expected to win only 40 games, you

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Table 9 assumes a team has a 60 percent chance of winning each game, and table 10 assumes a team has a 75 percent chance of winning
each game. A baseball team that is expected to win 75 percent of its games, or 121.5 wins out of 162, would be a truly great baseball team indeed!

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
P is the number you get from table 8, 9, or 10. The probability of not winning the middle is 100 - P. Let Vig1 and Vig2 be the vig on the two bets. Examples: If the terms are -110, the vig is 10; if the terms are -130, the vig is 30; if the terms are
+110, the vig is -10. Your expected profit EP is the possible win times the probability of that win plus the expected loss times the probability of that loss, or, for
$100 bets:
EP = 200P - (Vig1 + Vig2)*(100 - P)/2
To find the return on investment (ROI), divide the expected profit above by the investment 200 + Vig1 + Vig2. ROI = EP/(200 + Vig1 + Vig2)

ROI = [200P - (Vig1 + Vig2)*(100 - P)/2]/
(200 + Vig1 + Vig2)
Example: One-Point NFL Middle
The NFL season is sixteen games. According to table 8, if you can construct a one-game middle, you ha

CURRENT SUMMARY:
P is the number you get from table 8, 9, or 10. The probability of not winning the middle is 100 - P.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Is 19.6 percent chance of a middle enough return for you to tie up your money for four months? Unfortunately, it’s more complicated than simply deciding whether 19.6 percent is sufficient return on a four-month investment. You also have
to consider the terms on which the bets are offered. Suppose that the over requires you to put up $110 to try to win $100, and the under requires you to put up $115 to try to win $100. Thus to
construct the middle, you will invest $225 for each $200 you are hoping to win if the middle hits. (You do not have to buy the two bets in the ratio
of $115 to $110; the final percentage answer will be approximately the same even if you buy a slightly different ratio of the two bets.)
You have a 19.6 percent chance of winning both bets, and if you win both bets you wi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Is 19.6 percent chance of a middle enough return for you to tie up your money for four months? Unfortunately, it’s more complicated than simply deciding whether 19.6 percent is sufficient return on a four-month investment.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific kno


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You have 100 - 19.6 = 80.4 percent chance of winning one bet and losing the other. That’s 40.2 percent for winning the over and losing the
under, and 40.2 percent for losing the over and winning the under. (Again the split does not have to be exactly 40.2 to 40.2; the final percentage
answer will be about the same as long as the total is 80.4 percent.)
You have 40.2 percent chance of losing the $15 vig on one bet (115 lost on one bet minus 100 won on the other bet), 40.2 percent chance of
losing the $10 vig on the other bet (110 lost on one bet minus 100 won on the other bet), and 19.6 chance of winning both bets for $200. That’s
$39.20 minus $6.03 minus $4.02 for a net expected gain of $29.15, on an investment of $225. Laying out $225 to earn $29.15 is 13 percent return
on investment. Tha

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You have 100 - 19.6 = 80.4 percent chance of winning one bet and losing the other. That’s 40.2 percent for winning the over and losing the
under, and 40.2 percent for losing the over and winning the under.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific kno


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
I can tell you that if you make bets at -110 and -115 to lock up a one-game NFL middle, you will be earning an
average of 13 percent on a four-month investment. You have to decide for yourself whether 13 percent is sufficient return for tying your money up
on a risky bet for four months. Single Bets on Season Wins
This section presents an analysis of single bets on season wins. Again, I cannot teach you how to figure out how many games any team will
win. But I can help you put numbers on any good season-win bets that you find. Table 11 is for use in the situation where you think a team is going to win a different number of wins than specified in a proposition. The
columns are labeled “excess or shortfall of predicted wins.” If your prediction is for a team to win more than the number of wi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
I can tell you that if you make bets at -110 and -115 to lock up a one-game NFL middle, you will be earning an
average of 13 percent on a four-month investment. You have to decide for yourself whether 13 percent is sufficient return for tying your money up
on a risky bet for four months.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to work through this step by step. The user has provided a new excerpt from a sports betting document and wants me to create an improved knowledge card based on it. The user also p


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The
columns are labeled “excess or shortfall of predicted wins.” If your prediction is for a team to win more than the number of wins stated in the prop,
choose the column corresponding to the number of excess wins. If your prediction is for a team to fall short of the number of wins stated in the
prop, choose the column corresponding to the shortfall of wins. Each row of table 11 is for a different number of games to be played in a season. Included are rows for the NFL (16 games), major-league
baseball (162 games) NBA and NHL (82 games), and other rows in case you want to analyze a bet involving a different number of games in a
season. In order to use table 11, you must have your own estimate of how many games a team is likely to win in excess of or less than the number
specified in the p

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The
columns are labeled “excess or shortfall of predicted wins.” If your prediction is for a team to win more than the number of wins stated in the prop,
choose the column corresponding to the number of excess wins. If your prediction is for a team to fall short of the number of wins stated in the
prop, choose the column corresponding to the shortfall of wins.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has provided several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That is, you must start with an expectation that a team is going to win a certain number of games, and that expectation must
be different from the number specified in the prop. The columns of table 11 cover excess bets from half a game to three games. If your expectation
is that a team is going to win a number of games differing by more than three from the prop, you do not need me to tell you that you have found a
wonderful bet. Example: MLB, One Game Over
Here’s a sample use of table 11. Suppose you think a particular baseball team should be expected to win 82 games, and you have found a

prop allowing you to bet that the team will win more than 80.5 games. Table 11 enables you to find your expected win, and then you can decide
for yourself whether that expected win is high enough for you

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That is, you must start with an expectation that a team is going to win a certain number of games, and that expectation must
be different from the number specified in the prop. The columns of table 11 cover excess bets from half a game to three games.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Find the row of table 11 that corresponds to a 162-game season. Then find the column headed by 1.5, for the excess wins you are predicting. You should see 59.3. That number means 59.3 percent, and is the probability that your bet will win. Now you need to know the terms of the bet. Is it -110 or -120 or what? Let’s assume -115 just to have a number for working out the arithmetic. If the terms are -115, you wager $115 to try to win $100. There is a 59.3 percent chance you will win your bet, and a 40.7 percent chance you will
lose. 59.3 percent times $100 minus 40.7 percent times $115 yields $12.495 of expected win on the $115 investment. That’s 10.9 percent return,
which ought to be rounded off, so call it 11 percent return. Now the question you must ask yourself: “Is 11 percent return suff

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Find the row of table 11 that corresponds to a 162-game season. Then find the column headed by 1.5, for the excess wins you are predicting.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific kno


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That’s 10.9 percent return,
which ought to be rounded off, so call it 11 percent return. Now the question you must ask yourself: “Is 11 percent return sufficient for me to tie up my money for six months?” If you say yes, and if you
are confident about the accuracy of your prediction, and if you trust the sportsbook to still be in business six months hence when it comes time to
cash your ticket, then make the bet. Another Use of Table 11
You also can use table 11 to figure out what is the minimum number of games the prop must differ from your prediction to make the bet
worthwhile. For example, suppose your minimum requirement is 10 percent return on bets on NFL total wins, and 15 percent on other sports. (The
difference in requirements is due to the different season lengths.)
For bets at ev

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That’s 10.9 percent return,
which ought to be rounded off, so call it 11 percent return. Now the question you must ask yourself: “Is 11 percent return sufficient for me to tie up my money for six months?” If you say yes, and if you
are confident about the accuracy of your prediction, and if you trust the sportsbook to still be in business six months hence when it comes time to
cash your ticket, th

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific kno


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
For example, suppose your minimum requirement is 10 percent return on bets on NFL total wins, and 15 percent on other sports. (The
difference in requirements is due to the different season lengths.)
For bets at even money, you earn 10 percent at a win probability of 55.0 percent, and you earn 15 percent at a win probability of 57.5 percent. That tells you that half a game is enough to justify an NFL bet, but at other sports you need a full game in your favor. For bets at -110, you earn 10 percent at a win probability of 57.6 percent, and you earn 15 percent at a win probability of 60.2 percent. Half a
game is still enough for an NFL bet, but now the NBA and NHL require 1.5 games and baseball requires two games. For bets at -120, you earn 10 percent at a win probability of 60.0 percent, and

CURRENT SUMMARY:
For example, suppose your minimum requirement is 10 percent return on bets on NFL total wins, and 15 percent on other sports. (The
difference in requirements is due to the different season lengths.)
For bets at even money, you earn 10 percent at a win probability of 55.0 percent, and you earn 15 percent at a win probability of 57.5 percent.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
At
those terms half a game is barely enough for an NFL bet, and the NBA and NHL require 1.5 games, but baseball requires two games. Another Place to Find the Math
Season-wins math is also available on the Sports: Prop Tool on the Links page of BJ21.com. Sample Problems
Problem 1
There are a number of two- and three-game middles available on major-league baseball season wins. How much are they worth? Assume
that all bets are offered at -110. Problem 2
What are the middles for other sports that are about equally attractive as a three-game middle at baseball? Solutions to Sample Problems
Problem 1
There are a number of two- and three-game middles available on major-league baseball season wins. How much are they worth? Assume
that all bets are offered at-110. The major-league baseball season i

CURRENT SUMMARY:
At
those terms half a game is barely enough for an NFL bet, and the NBA and NHL require 1.5 games, but baseball requires two games. Another Place to Find the Math
Season-wins math is also available on the Sports: Prop Tool on the Links page of BJ21.com.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific kno


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Table 8 yields probability of middles hitting as 6.3 percent for one game, 12.4 percent for
two games, and 18.4 percent for three games. Constructing a middle involves making two bets at $110 each, for a total investment of $220. If the middle won, the amount won would be
$200. Other bet sizes could be used, providing the ratio of wins to investment is 200/220. A $220 middle containing one game would win $200 6.3 percent of the time and would lose $10 the other 93.7 percent of the time. That’s an
average win of $3.23 on a $220 investment, a return of 1.6 percent. A $220 middle containing two games would win $200 12.4 percent of the time and would lose $10 the other 87.6 percent of the time. That’s
an average win of $16.04 on a $220 investment, a return of 7.3 percent. A $220 middle contain

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Table 8 yields probability of middles hitting as 6.3 percent for one game, 12.4 percent for
two games, and 18.4 percent for three games. Constructing a middle involves making two bets at $110 each, for a total investment of $220.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific kno


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River
Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Trademarks: Wiley, For Dummies, the Dummies Man logo, Dummies.com, Making Everything Easier, and related
trade dress are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley & Sons, Inc., and may not be used without written
permission. Instant Pot is a registered trademark of Instant Brands, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of
their respective owners. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. LIMIT OF LIABILITY/DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY: THE CONTENTS OF THIS WORK ARE INTENDED TO FURTHER
GENERAL SCIENTIFIC

CURRENT SUMMARY:
the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River
Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Trademarks: Wiley, For Dummies, the Dummies Man logo, Dummies.com, Making Everything Easier, and related
trade dress are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. LIMIT OF LIABILITY/DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY: THE CONTENTS OF THIS WORK ARE INTENDED TO FURTHER
GENERAL SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, UNDERSTANDING, AND DISCUSSION ONLY AND ARE NOT INTENDED AND
SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS RECOMMENDING OR PROMOTING A SPECIFIC METHOD, DIAGNOSIS, OR
TREATMENT BY PHYSICIANS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PATIENT. THE PUBLISHER AND THE AUTHOR MAKE NO
REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENTS
OF THIS WORK AND SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION ANY
IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN VIEW OF ONGOING RESEARCH, EQUIPMENT
MODIFICATIONS, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL REGULATIONS, AND THE CONSTA

CURRENT SUMMARY:
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. LIMIT OF LIABILITY/DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY: THE CONTENTS OF THIS WORK ARE INTENDED TO FURTHER
GENERAL SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, UNDERSTANDING, AND DISCUSSION ONLY AND ARE NOT INTENDED AND
SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS RECOMMENDING OR PROMOTING A SPECIFIC METHOD, DIAGNOSIS, OR
TREATMENT BY PHYSICIANS FOR ANY P

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
THE PUBLISHER AND THE AUTHOR MAKE NO
REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENTS
OF THIS WORK AND SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION ANY
IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN VIEW OF ONGOING RESEARCH, EQUIPMENT
MODIFICATIONS, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL REGULATIONS, AND THE CONSTANT FLOW OF INFORMATION,
THE READER IS URGED TO REVIEW AND EVALUATE THE INFORMATION PROVIDED IN THE PACKAGE INSERT OR
INSTRUCTIONS FOR EACH MEDICINE, EQUIPMENT, OR DEVICE FOR, AMONG OTHER THINGS, ANY CHANGES IN
THE INSTRUCTIONS OR INDICATION OF USAGE AND FOR ADDED WARNINGS AND PRECAUTIONS. READERS
SHOULD CONSULT WITH A SPECIALIST WHERE APPROPRIATE. NEITHER THE PUBLISHER NOR THE AUTHOR

CURRENT SUMMARY:
THE PUBLISHER AND THE AUTHOR MAKE NO
REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENTS
OF THIS WORK AND SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION ANY
IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN VIEW OF ONGOING RESEARCH, EQUIPMENT
MODIFICATIONS, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL REGULATIONS, AND THE CONSTANT FLOW OF INFORMAT

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific kno


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
For general information on our other products and services, please contact our Customer Care Department within
the U.S. at 877-762-2974, outside the U.S. at 317-572-3993, or fax 317-572-4002. For technical support, please visit
https://hub.wiley.com/community/support/dummies. Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand. Some material included with
standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand. If this book refers to
media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at
http://booksupport.wiley.com. For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com. Library of Congress Control Number: 2020904219
ISBN 978-1-119-65438-4 (pbk); ISBN 978-

CURRENT SUMMARY:
For general information on our other products and services, please contact our Customer Care Department within
the U.S. at 877-762-2974, outside the U.S.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Contents at a Glance
Foreword. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . xv
Introduction. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 1
Part 1: Sports Betting Basics. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 7
CHAPTER 1: Betting Sports for Fun and Profit. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 9
CHAPTER 2:	 The Basic Bets. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Contents at a Glance
Foreword. xv
Introduction.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help the user understand a sports betting document by refining a knowledge card. The user has provided an excerpt and a current summary, and I need to extract the most import


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Contents at a Glance
Foreword. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . xv
Introduction. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 1
Part 1: Sports Betting Basics. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 7
CHAPTER 1: Betting Sports for Fun and Profit. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 9
CHAPTER 2:	 The Basic Bets. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Contents at a Glance
Foreword. xv
Introduction.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Contents at a Glance
Foreword. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . xv
Introduction. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 1
Part 1: Sports Betting Basics. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 7
CHAPTER 1: Betting Sports for Fun and Profit. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 9
CHAPTER 2:	 The Basic Bets. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Contents at a Glance
Foreword. xv
Introduction.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
What’s the Difference?. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  208
Totally rated. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  208
Power rating strengths. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  210
Power rating weaknesses. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  210
Developing a Power Rating of Your Own. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  211
Plagiarism is the sincerest form of flattery. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  212
Your first power rating. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .

CURRENT SUMMARY:
What’s the Difference?. 208
Totally rated.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Other common baseball bets . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  341
Baseball Scoring Patterns. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Runs per game. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Runs per inning. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Assessing hot and cold streaks. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  345
Starting Pitching and MLB Odds. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  346
BET on

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Other common baseball bets . 341
Baseball Scoring Patterns.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific kno


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Other common baseball bets . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  341
Baseball Scoring Patterns. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Runs per game. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Runs per inning. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Assessing hot and cold streaks. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  345
Starting Pitching and MLB Odds. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  346
BET on

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Other common baseball bets . 341
Baseball Scoring Patterns.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting thing. The user has given me several excerpts and summaries, and I need to extract the most important information and present it in a specific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Other common baseball bets . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  341
Baseball Scoring Patterns. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Runs per game. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Runs per inning. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Assessing hot and cold streaks. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  345
Starting Pitching and MLB Odds. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  346
BET on

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Other common baseball bets . 341
Baseball Scoring Patterns.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to figure out how to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They provided a new excerpt and a current summary, and I need to extract the most impor


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Tetlock and Dan Gardner. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Confidence by Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Superbookie by Art Manteris . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Failure by Stuart Firestein. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
Scorecasting by Tobias Moskowitz. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
How to Lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
Sharper by Poker Joe. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 402
Confidence by Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic .

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I need to figure out how to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They provided a new excerpt and a current summary, and I have to extract the most important


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Tetlock and Dan Gardner. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Confidence by Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Superbookie by Art Manteris . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Failure by Stuart Firestein. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
Scorecasting by Tobias Moskowitz. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
How to Lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
Sharper by Poker Joe. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 402
Confidence by Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic .

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to figure out how to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They provided a new excerpt and a current summary, and I need to extract the most impor


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But good bettors
also spend time looking backward, trying to figure out what clues they
missed in yesterday’s lost bet. When you spot those missed clues, your brain will
whisper, “You’re a dummy!” Try not to listen to that pesky brain. If you’re about to step tentatively into the sometime mystifying world of sports
wagering, you must first understand one truism: No matter how long you work at
it, sports betting will always provide moments where you’ll feel like a dummy. Being wrong — sometimes badly, terribly, even embarrassingly wrong — is part of
the deal. And sometimes your luck will be so bad, you won’t even be granted the dignity of
merely being wrong! Often the bettor is done in by factors he or she has no control
over, like injuries, weather, or — in the case of football — y

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But good bettors
also spend time looking backward, trying to figure out what clues they
missed in yesterday’s lost bet. When you spot those missed clues, your brain will
whisper, “You’re a dummy!” Try not to listen to that pesky brain.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to figure out how to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They provided a new excerpt and a current summary, and I need to extract the most importan


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Often the bettor is done in by factors he or she has no control
over, like injuries, weather, or — in the case of football — yellow handkerchiefs
thrown by your fellow human beings at the worst possible times. Suffering bad
beats (when the team you bet on gets an unlucky break, or somehow snatches
defeat from the jaws of victory) is also a part of this hobby. You must accept them
and move on as quickly as possible hoping that it all “evens out in the end.” (That
sentiment, while true, has never made anyone feel one bit better.)
Sports betting also involves work. Are you ready for it? Anybody can make a bet on
a “hunch” and win a few bucks and have some laughs, but this isn’t something
you can dabble at if you expect to be consistently good at it. You’ll need to study
the sports be

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Often the bettor is done in by factors he or she has no control
over, like injuries, weather, or — in the case of football — yellow handkerchiefs
thrown by your fellow human beings at the worst possible times. Suffering bad
beats (when the team you bet on gets an unlucky break, or somehow snatches
defeat from the jaws of victory) is also a part of this hobby.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They provided a new excerpt and a current summary, and I need to extract the most important information a


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You’ll need to study
the sports betting marketplace, get comfortable with betting strategies and odds,
find ways to research teams and players, and learn to keep good records. It takes
time, patience, and no small amount of courage. (Did I mention those bad beats?)
So why do so many of us participate? Sports betting is fun. Not just game-of-
Parcheesi-fun or go-to-the-movies fun. I’m talking about genuine exhilaration. Betting takes what you already love about sports to the next level. When you pick
a winner, it can feel like you’ve solved a seemingly impossible riddle or uncovered
a secret that nobody else knows. When you win a bet that all of your friends said
you were crazy to make, it’s a flavor of elation you won’t soon forget.

xvi      Sports Betting For Dummies
So put aside

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You’ll need to study
the sports betting marketplace, get comfortable with betting strategies and odds,
find ways to research teams and players, and learn to keep good records. It takes
time, patience, and no small amount of courage.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, let's see. The user provided a query where they want to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They included an excerpt and a current summary. The goal is to extract the most imp


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Good luck, and I’ll see
you at the betting window. . . . Norm Hitzges is a Texas Radio Hall of Fame member in his 45th straight year on the air in the
Dallas/Fort Worth area. Norm is a veteran horse and sports handicapper and industry insider
whose picks are offered every Friday as his acclaimed “Picks of the Pole” segment on KTCK (1310
AM / 96.7 FM, “SportsRadio 1310 The Ticket”). Norm also donates considerable time and energy
to charitable work for many organizations, including the Austin Street Center and Texans Can
Academy. Introduction      1
Introduction
L
et’s get one thing straight: Sports betting is an intellectual challenge with a
tangible life-affirming, pocket-book-enhancing result at the end of each
event (if all goes well). It’s a test of your puzzle-solving skills. C

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Good luck, and I’ll see
you at the betting window. Norm Hitzges is a Texas Radio Hall of Fame member in his 45th straight year on the air in the
Dallas/Fort Worth area.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure out how to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They provided a new excerpt and a current summary, and I need to extract the most importan


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Can you find
the hidden angle or discover some insight about the two teams on the field that
the rest of the world missed? In the old days, you’d have to travel to Nevada or have “a guy” if you wanted to
bet on a sporting event. As the internet evolved, those with enough patience and
tolerance for risk could pursue bets through offshore casinos. Thankfully, in this
modern age, there are now a handful of states and Canadian provinces that permit
sports betting. So if you’re traveling to one of those regions, or if you’re like me
and you maintain an account with an online bookmaker, this is the book for you. About This Book
If you’ve ever placed a friendly wager on a sporting event, then you understand
the potential for fun. This book is going to explain the how the gambling market

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Can you find
the hidden angle or discover some insight about the two teams on the field that
the rest of the world missed? In the old days, you’d have to travel to Nevada or have “a guy” if you wanted to
bet on a sporting event.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to figure out how to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the new excerpt they've provided. Let me start by carefully reading through the


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
I’ll talk about the most common bets, the point spreads, the
over/unders, the moneylines, the props, and the futures. I’ll discuss how the
sports betting market is constituted, and how you can participate. In addition to the structure of the bet, I’ll show you the step-by-step process for
opening an account with an online bookmaker, and I’ll show you how to read the
menu of bets available at a casino or online bookmaker. I’ll then show you how to
recognize good bets and walk you through the process of placing a wager. My goal
is to help you understand what you’re up against, how you lose, and hopefully,
how you win. Then I’ll go sport by sport and talk about what it means to handicap
a game, pick a winner, and bring home the bacon over the long run. Las Vegas sports books have had

CURRENT SUMMARY:
I’ll talk about the most common bets, the point spreads, the
over/unders, the moneylines, the props, and the futures. I’ll discuss how the
sports betting market is constituted, and how you can participate.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt. First, I'll read through the excerpt carefully to understand its content and identify key points.

The excerpt starts


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But most of all, in Sports Betting For Dummies, I’m interested in putting you in a
position to have fun. This is a hobby that can make you sing a song of joy and weep
uncontrollably in the same day. Does that happen in your book club? Does stamp
collecting invoke such highs and lows? Does golf? (Okay, maybe golf does.)
Many gambling books are built on assertions and platitudes, with little backing
data. The point of this book is to not only provide you actionable strategies but to
also build a foundation for you to find your own. I will help you learn how to interpret the betting market and how to assess betting propositions logically and
quantitatively. I’ll help you recognize when a tout is giving you a line of b.s. (can’t
curse in Dummies books), of which there is far too much of

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But most of all, in Sports Betting For Dummies, I’m interested in putting you in a
position to have fun. This is a hobby that can make you sing a song of joy and weep
uncontrollably in the same day.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this query step by step. The user is asking me to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on a specific excerpt. They've provided the excerpt and the current


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Sure, this book has “principles” and “rules of thumb” in spades. You’ll learn lots
of lessons and can be proud of yourself for that. But I also want to provide you
with actionable intelligence. I’m holding nothing back: If I know a profitable
approach to betting (like betting the home favorite the day after a double-header),
I’m going to tell you about it. If I’ve learned bets to avoid, I’m going to tell you
about them. I’m not only going to teach you to fish; I’m going to serve you some
delicious sushi. Gambling has its own private language, and sports betting has a sub-species of
gamble-speak. This, more than the underlying concepts, can often be the biggest
barrier to transitioning from a fan to a financially interested fan. So first and
foremost, I’m going to demystify the la

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Sure, this book has “principles” and “rules of thumb” in spades. You’ll learn lots
of lessons and can be proud of yourself for that.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt they've provided. Let me take a closer look at what's in the excerpt and figur


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
So first and
foremost, I’m going to demystify the language and basic concepts around sports
betting. Just so you know in advance, I’ll set certain things apart in this book in specific
ways so you know just what to do with the content:
»
» When there’s a new word, important phrase, or a term of art you should
remember, I’ll italicize it and define it.
»
» There will be a chapter devoted to statistics and probability, and where a
stand-alone equation is necessary, I’ll explain each part to you.
»
» Although it’s not a requirement, there will also be references to Microsoft
Excel functions and Excel VBA code. Most of it is in Chapter 16.
»
» Different parts of the world have different ways of presenting odds to
gamblers. I plan on using American odds notation. Introduction      3
Bef

CURRENT SUMMARY:
So first and
foremost, I’m going to demystify the language and basic concepts around sports
betting. Just so you know in advance, I’ll set certain things apart in this book in specific
ways so you know just what to do with the content:
»
» When there’s a new word, important phrase, or a term of art you should
remember, I’ll italicize it and define it.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me start by carefully reading through the excerpt to understand its conte


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Introduction      3
Before You Go Any Further
The goal of the book is to instill you with the most useful 400 (or so) pages of
information on sports betting. I’m going to promote beginners into functional
sports betting dabblers. And I’m going to make knowledgeable gamblers out of
dabblers. And if you think you’re already more than just a dabbler, the book
will  introduce you to the full variety of popular sports and handicapping
methodologies. Having said that, it’s not possible to cover every single opportunity to risk money
on the outcome of a sporting event. There are so many sports and so many
different kinds of bets out there. My goal is to focus on the sports you love, on the
most accessible analysis methods, and on topics that I believe are the most
underserved in librari

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Introduction      3
Before You Go Any Further
The goal of the book is to instill you with the most useful 400 (or so) pages of
information on sports betting. I’m going to promote beginners into functional
sports betting dabblers.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt they've provided. Let me start by carefully reading through the excerpt to und


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
My goal is to focus on the sports you love, on the
most accessible analysis methods, and on topics that I believe are the most
underserved in libraries and bookstores today. If your “thing” is water polo or
frog-jumping, or a sport or bet not covered in this book, I wish you much success,
and I admit I won’t have much to add. So here are the topics that will either be lightly covered or downright ignored:
»
» Pari-mutuel betting (horse and dog racing, jai alai)
»
» Season-long fantasy sports
»
» Prediction markets (like betting on the Oscars or election results)
»
» Office pools (I will talk about placing bets on the Super Bowl and March
Madness, but the focus will be on wagering, not winning goofy office
contests.)
»
» E-sports
»
» Daily fantasy sports
The sports I’ve selected for t

CURRENT SUMMARY:
My goal is to focus on the sports you love, on the
most accessible analysis methods, and on topics that I believe are the most
underserved in libraries and bookstores today. If your “thing” is water polo or
frog-jumping, or a sport or bet not covered in this book, I wish you much success,
and I admit I won’t have much to add.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me start by carefully reading through the excerpt to understand its conte


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
So here are the topics that will either be lightly covered or downright ignored:
»
» Pari-mutuel betting (horse and dog racing, jai alai)
»
» Season-long fantasy sports
»
» Prediction markets (like betting on the Oscars or election results)
»
» Office pools (I will talk about placing bets on the Super Bowl and March
Madness, but the focus will be on wagering, not winning goofy office
contests.)
»
» E-sports
»
» Daily fantasy sports
The sports I’ve selected for this book are the ones most appealing to American and
fans and bettors. If you’re not a resident of North America, there is plenty in this
book to help grow your understanding of sports betting in general and your
approach to assessing and placing bets. But beware that if you have a specific
sport you want to see addressed and

CURRENT SUMMARY:
So here are the topics that will either be lightly covered or downright ignored:
»
» Pari-mutuel betting (horse and dog racing, jai alai)
»
» Season-long fantasy sports
»
» Prediction markets (like betting on the Oscars or election results)
»
» Office pools (I will talk about placing bets on the Super Bowl and March
Madness, but the focus will be on wagering, not winning goofy office
contests.)

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me start by carefully reading through the excerpt to understand its conte


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But beware that if you have a specific
sport you want to see addressed and it’s not a sport that’s terribly popular in
North America, do yourself a favor and check the table of contents before embarking on this journey. I have no doubt that soccer, hockey, cricket, darts, handball,
billiards, and bicycle racing are enthralling sports to watch and bet on, and I
believe there are applicable lessons herein, but I’m sorry to say that I will not be
specifically addressing those endeavors.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But beware that if you have a specific
sport you want to see addressed and it’s not a sport that’s terribly popular in
North America, do yourself a favor and check the table of contents before embarking on this journey. I have no doubt that soccer, hockey, cricket, darts, handball,
billiards, and bicycle racing are enthralling sports to watch and bet on, and I
believe there are applicable less

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me start by carefully reading through the excerpt to understand its conte


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Foolish Assumptions
I can picture you, dear reader, reading this book. It was actually quite easy: When
you ordered the book, your Alexa contacted my Alexa and told me everything
about you. Here’s what she told me, and here’s the starting point for the book:
»
» You’re probably a dude. Research says when it comes to gambling activities,
women prefer games based on luck, and men prefer games where skill is
involved. It’s a control thing. Given how much luck is involved in winning
sports bets, you ladies should really give this hobby another look-see. This is a
fun hobby, and if you’re a person of the female persuasion, I’d like to offer a
non-threatening platonic high-five welcoming you aboard. We could use more
gender equality in terms of the bettors and so-called celebrity experts

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Foolish Assumptions
I can picture you, dear reader, reading this book. It was actually quite easy: When
you ordered the book, your Alexa contacted my Alexa and told me everything
about you.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt they've provided. Let me start by carefully reading through the excerpt to und


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
We could use more
gender equality in terms of the bettors and so-called celebrity experts.
»
» There’s a distinct possibility that you are an avid fan of at least one major
team sport; you might own a jersey with a spoiled millionaire’s name on the
back. If the team’s any good, when their games are on TV, you cancel all plans,
turn on your email “out of office” notification, and ask your significant other to
find something else to do.
»
» Let’s not kid each other. If you’re a North American, you love either college
or pro football. You might gripe about somebody taking a knee during the
anthem, but you’re not gonna stop watching. And you likely have a secondary
sport like baseball or golf that you’ll watch as well. This book will devote a lot
of pages to winning football bets beca

CURRENT SUMMARY:
We could use more
gender equality in terms of the bettors and so-called celebrity experts. »
» There’s a distinct possibility that you are an avid fan of at least one major
team sport; you might own a jersey with a spoiled millionaire’s name on the
back.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt they've provided. Let me start by carefully reading through the excerpt to und


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That’s a good skill set to bring to the table. My guess is you get a
little frustrated with the over-random nature of fantasy sports, which makes
sports betting appealing to you.
»
» I’d be willing to, er, bet, that you don’t have a moral objection to gambling. You
might even have a friend who regularly places bets, and you’d like to be able
to converse intelligently about sports betting with him or her.
»
» For sports you’re less enthusiastic about, maybe it’s tennis or baseball, you
know, or at least suspect, that your level of fan intensity will rise exponentially
if you have a dollar riding on the outcome. You’ve discovered the secret joy of
sports betting (which is that a $1 wager can turn basket-weaving into the last
episode of The Sopranos).
»
» If you have some familiarity

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That’s a good skill set to bring to the table. My guess is you get a
little frustrated with the over-random nature of fantasy sports, which makes
sports betting appealing to you.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break it down step by step to make sure I understand what's needed.

Firs


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You’ve discovered the secret joy of
sports betting (which is that a $1 wager can turn basket-weaving into the last
episode of The Sopranos).
»
» If you have some familiarity with the art and science of sports betting, you
know there’s more to learn, and you want to learn enough to keep your
head above water. You don’t mind losing a few bucks, but you’d rather win
a few bucks. Introduction      5
»
» If you are a regular sports bettor, you are looking for ways to bump up your
winning percentage, or maybe you just want to expand your horizons and dig
into more detail about sports you might not normally watch or bet on. Icons Used in This Book
The icons are like little signposts to help readers recognize when critical information is about to come their way. If you see this icon, I’m gi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You’ve discovered the secret joy of
sports betting (which is that a $1 wager can turn basket-weaving into the last
episode of The Sopranos). »
» If you have some familiarity with the art and science of sports betting, you
know there’s more to learn, and you want to learn enough to keep your
head above water.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure out how to approach this. The user is asking me to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt they've provided. I need to extract t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
There are all kinds of pitfalls when it comes to gambling in general and with
sports betting in particular. If they can be summarized neatly and succinctly, I’ll
put this icon next to them so that you can avoid having something explode in
your face. This book is full of facts and concepts that you’ll want to commit to memory, so
you’ll see this icon next to those paragraphs. Beyond the Book
This book comes with a free online Cheat Sheet that gives you some simple
reminders of sports betting tenets, definitions, and even some standard odds you
should keep in mind when you bet. To get this Cheat Sheet, simply go to www.dummies.com and enter “Sports Betting
For Dummies Cheat Sheet” in the Search box. Where to Go from Here
If you’re starting from scratch, and you don’t know how sports b

CURRENT SUMMARY:
There are all kinds of pitfalls when it comes to gambling in general and with
sports betting in particular. If they can be summarized neatly and succinctly, I’ll
put this icon next to them so that you can avoid having something explode in
your face.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided an excerpt and a current summary, and they want it in a specific format. Let me break th


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Get off to a fast start with sports betting by learning the
essentials: how it works, why it’s so popular, and what
the law says about it. Get a feel for the mechanics of a sports bet and learn
some key terminology you’ll need to know to move
forward. Assess yourself as a sports bettor and set some realistic
goals for yourself. If you need a refresher, read up on the most popular bet
types so you can bet like a pro in no time. Dip your toe into the basics of betting math and
probability. Get to know the organizations that post the odds and
take your bets, and discover how to make your first
sports bet. CHAPTER 1  Betting Sports for Fun and Profit      9
Chapter 1
Betting Sports for
Fun and Profit
I

n some ways, sports betting is quite simple. You think one team is better than

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Get off to a fast start with sports betting by learning the
essentials: how it works, why it’s so popular, and what
the law says about it. Get a feel for the mechanics of a sports bet and learn
some key terminology you’ll need to know to move
forward.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt they've provided. Let me start by understanding what they need.

The user has give


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But hidden beneath that easy-to-understand crust is the mantle of harder-to-
grasp unpleasant truths. Lots of people lose lots of money at this endeavor. There
are a million ways to bet. Your brain can sometimes be your worst enemy when it
comes to betting. Once you start betting, it’s hard to tell if you’re any good at it. And there’s the one undeniable truth that is so easy to forget: Teams do wacky,
unpredictable things to confound every sensible prediction and make bettors pull
their hair out. That last truth is the first one I want to discuss. Because teams behaving in
strange, unpredictable ways is something I experienced personally many years
ago, and one game in particular started a fascination with this hobby that hasn’t
abated. It took place in October 1989. While the wor

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But hidden beneath that easy-to-understand crust is the mantle of harder-to-
grasp unpleasant truths. Lots of people lose lots of money at this endeavor.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to work through this step by step. The user has provided an excerpt from a sports betting document and wants me to extract the most important information and present it in a specif


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Eight Days in October
Naturally it was Friday the 13th. I looked it up recently: Friday, October 13, 1989. I was a senior in high school and a proud member of the Grapevine High School
varsity football team in Texas. I was the complete package: slow, weak, undersized, with almost a complete lack of athletic talent. Lucky for everyone involved,
the coaches were wise enough to keep me far from the field on gameday. But that
gave me a great vantage point for what was about to happen. A surprise win
Memory is tricky, but here’s my version of the events: The Grapevine Mustangs
were 3–3 with 4 games left in the season and an outside chance at a playoff berth. Coach Snead, who would go on to win two state championships, had been telling
us all week that we were better than our record indicat

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Eight Days in October
Naturally it was Friday the 13th. I looked it up recently: Friday, October 13, 1989.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure out how to approach this. The user is asking me to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt they've provided. I need to extract t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
These guys were King
Kong. They kicked our asses every year. In 1989, they were undefeated, well
coached, confident, and clearly outmatched us at every position. Their quarterback was even dating the homecoming queen from our high school. Our goal was
to avoid complete embarrassment. Winning wasn’t a thought in our minds. But it was Friday the 13th, after all. Strange things happened. On the opening drive
of the game, the Trinity quarterback faked a handoff to the dive back, reversepivoted on the bootleg and ran smack into not one of our players but the referee,
fumbling away the football. That lucky break was followed by another, and before
we knew it, we were ahead. Then the guys actually started to play well — really
well. We uncharacteristically caught every ball and made every

CURRENT SUMMARY:
These guys were King
Kong. They kicked our asses every year.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt they've provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I n