Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
For a bet quoted as EV, the probability of winning would have to be 50 percent for the bet to break even in the long run. For Super Bowls the Imperial Palace in Las Vegas generally offers a prop on who will receive the kickoff. Typically the prop is offered with
both teams at EV. It’s easy enough to see that there is no house edge for the Imperial Palace on that bet. You could bet $100 on one team and
match it with $100 on the other team, and whichever team receives the opening kickoff will bring back your entire $200. The Imperial Palace runs
this one prop as a loss leader, the same as a grocery store offering an item at cost to get you to shop there instead of at a competitor’s store. Enough people who visit Imperial Palace to make the no-vig bet also make other bets that do have a house

CURRENT SUMMARY:
For a bet quoted as EV, the probability of winning would have to be 50 percent for the bet to break even in the long run. For Super Bowls the Imperial Palace in Las Vegas generally offers a prop on who will receive the kickoff.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, k


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Table 1 gives the break-even rates associated with various bet terms. You can interpolate to find values not explicitly stated in the table. For example, try to find -110. You won’t find it; it’s not in table 1. However you can find -111 associated with the break-even win rate 52.5
percent, and you can find -108 associated with the break-even win rate of 52.0 percent. So you know that -110 must have a break-even win rate of
between 52.0 and 52.5 percent, and interpolation would lead you to choose 52.3 or 52.4 percent. Table 1 allows you to find the break-even win rate that corresponds to the terms on any sportsbook bet that is expressed as how much to bet
to win $100 or how much a $100 bet will win. Suppose you see a prop offered at -130. Table 1 tells you that the event must happen 56.5 p

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Table 1 gives the break-even rates associated with various bet terms. You can interpolate to find values not explicitly stated in the table.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, key


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Table 1 tells you that the event must happen 56.5 percent of the time for you to break even, and the
event must be more likely than that for you to have the expectation of showing a profit on the bet. If that event happens less than 56.5 percent of
the time, then the bet has a negative expected value. Suppose you see a prop offered at +115. Table 1 tells you that the event must happen 46.5 percent of the time for you to break even, and if
the event is more likely than that to happen, then you have the expectation of showing a profit on the bet. You can reproduce any of the terms in table 1 yourself. Let BE be the break-even percentage. For each negative term:
term = - 100 * BE / (100 - BE)
For each positive term:
term = 100 * (100 - BE) / BE
Sometimes the terms of a bet will be expressed a

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Table 1 tells you that the event must happen 56.5 percent of the time for you to break even, and the
event must be more likely than that for you to have the expectation of showing a profit on the bet. If that event happens less than 56.5 percent of
the time, then the bet has a negative expected value.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, k


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
For each negative term:
term = - 100 * BE / (100 - BE)
For each positive term:
term = 100 * (100 - BE) / BE
Sometimes the terms of a bet will be expressed as a ratio instead of as an amount to win $100. Table 2 lists the commonly used ratios and
gives the equivalent break-even win rates and amounts to win $100
For example, if a sportsbook is offering a bet at 4:1, it could have said +400 instead because +400 means the same thing as 4:1. That bet has
a positive expected value for the customer if the event has greater than a 20.0 percent chance of happening. Expected Value
The term expected value is used throughout this book. This term has a precise meaning. Expected value means the arithmetic mean or
“average” result if the game were to be played over and over a large number of times. Here’

CURRENT SUMMARY:
For each negative term:
term = - 100 * BE / (100 - BE)
For each positive term:
term = 100 * (100 - BE) / BE
Sometimes the terms of a bet will be expressed as a ratio instead of as an amount to win $100. Table 2 lists the commonly used ratios and
gives the equivalent break-even win rates and amounts to win $100
For example, if a sportsbook is offering a bet at 4:1, it could have said +400 instead b

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I need to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user wants a summary, key points, and themes in a specific format. Let me break it down


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Suppose you find someone foolish enough to pay you $105 for each head flipped with a coin, if you would pay him
$100 for each tail. I am assuming this is a fair coin and you are not going to end up with an earful of cider. What is the EV (acronym for expected
value) of the game? Fifty percent of the time you will win $105 and fifty percent of the time you will lose $100, so on average you will win $2.50. The calculation is .5 x $105 - .5 x $100. You could describe the situation by saying you have an EV of $2.50 per flip. You are not going to run into fools who will play this win-$100-lose-$105 game with you, but you might encounter something similar in the
way of sports bets. You might encounter bets that will pay you $105 or cost you $100 that you think you have a fifty percent chance of

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Suppose you find someone foolish enough to pay you $105 for each head flipped with a coin, if you would pay him
$100 for each tail. I am assuming this is a fair coin and you are not going to end up with an earful of cider.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, k


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If
you really do have a fifty percent chance of winning, then your expected win on the bet is $2.50. You can call it “expected win” or you can call it “expected value.” The important thing is that the “expected” part means the mean result if the
game were to be played over and over. Expected value can also be expressed as a percentage of the wager. $2.50 of expected win on a bet of $100 is 2.5 percent return on the
wager. Expected Value: Money Line Example
Here is another numerical example. Suppose a sportsbook is offering a game at -130, and you think you have a 60 percent chance of
winning that bet. What is your expected win, in percent? Solution: If you risk $130 and the bet wins, your ticket is worth $230. You think that has a 60 percent chance of happening. The expected
value of that

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If
you really do have a fifty percent chance of winning, then your expected win on the bet is $2.50. You can call it “expected win” or you can call it “expected value.” The important thing is that the “expected” part means the mean result if the
game were to be played over and over.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user wants a specific format with a summary, key points, and themes. They prov


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That’s
an average win of $8. Winning $8 on an investment of $130 is earning 8/130 or 6.15 percent on your investment. Expected Value with Multiple Possible Outcomes
Sometimes there are more possible outcomes than just win and lose. The most common alternate outcome is getting your money back on a
push. For example, suppose you bet on Chicago -3 on an NFL game. If Chicago wins the game by more than three points, you win your bet. If
Chicago loses or if Chicago wins by only one or two points, you lose your bet. If Chicago wins by exactly three, you get your money back but do
not win or lose anything. The general way to find expected value is to list all the possible outcomes and their chances of happening, multiply each outcome by its
associated chance of happening, and sum. As a check to ma

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That’s
an average win of $8. Winning $8 on an investment of $130 is earning 8/130 or 6.15 percent on your investment.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, k


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
As a check to make sure you have accounted for all possible outcomes, add up your chances of various things happening and be sure they
sum to 100 percent. Example Calculating Expected Win
For example, suppose you think Chicago winning by more than three is going to happen with probability .55. That is, if this game could
somehow be played over an over and over, Chicago would win 55 percent of the time. Suppose you think that Chicago winning by exactly three
has a 10 percent chance of happening. That leaves 35 percent as the chance that Chicago will not cover the spread. Check: 55 percent plus 10 percent plus 35 percent equals 100 percent. Suppose you can wager at the standard term of -110. Let’s work out the math for a wager of $110. You have 55 percent chance of winning
$100, 10 percent c

CURRENT SUMMARY:
As a check to make sure you have accounted for all possible outcomes, add up your chances of various things happening and be sure they
sum to 100 percent. Example Calculating Expected Win
For example, suppose you think Chicago winning by more than three is going to happen with probability .55.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, k


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You have 55 percent chance of winning
$100, 10 percent chance of breaking even, and 35 percent chance of losing $110. EVW = .55 x $100 + .10 x $0 + .35 x (-$110)
Multiplying each outcome by its probability gives $55 on a win plus $0 on a push minus $38.50 on a loss for a total win of $16.50. Dividing that $16.50 average win by the $110 investment yields fifteen percent. The expected win on that Chicago bet is fifteen percent if
your chances of winning, pushing, and losing are accurate. The number of dollars invested does not matter. Use a bet size different from $110 and you will get the same fifteen percent answer for
expected win rate. Example Calculating Expected Ticket Price
An alternate way to get the same answer is to figure out what is the expected value of the ticket you will be ca

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You have 55 percent chance of winning
$100, 10 percent chance of breaking even, and 35 percent chance of losing $110. EVW = .55 x $100 + .10 x $0 + .35 x (-$110)
Multiplying each outcome by its probability gives $55 on a win plus $0 on a push minus $38.50 on a loss for a total win of $16.50.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, k


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A ticket that costs you
$110 might turn into $210 or it might stay at $110 or it might turn into zero. For the Chicago example, the chances of each of those were assumed
to be 55 percent, 10 percent, and 35 percent. Multiplying each possible ticket value times its probability gives:
EVT = .55 x $210 + .10 x $110 + .35 x $0
= $115.50 + $110 + $0
The total is $126.50. That’s the expected postgame ticket price. Expecting to turn a $110 bet into a $126.50 ticket means an expected win of
$16.50, which is the same answer as in the calculation of expected amount of win. Sample Problems
Problem 1
A sportsbook offers special prices on Thursday night: -105 for bets on sides, instead of the normal -110. What is the vig at -105, from the
standpoint of someone who has a 50-50 chance of winning a bet? P

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A ticket that costs you
$110 might turn into $210 or it might stay at $110 or it might turn into zero. For the Chicago example, the chances of each of those were assumed
to be 55 percent, 10 percent, and 35 percent.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, k


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Problem 3
If you can pick winners with 57 percent accuracy, what is your expected win rate if you make bets at -110? Problem 4
Suppose you are offered -800 on a bet that a game will not go into overtime, and suppose you evaluate the chance of overtime at five
percent. What is your edge on this bet? Problem 5
A sportsbook offers +185 on a particular prop. What percent of the time do you need to win that prop to break even? Problem 6
Suppose I can receive +185 on something that I think will happen around forty percent of the time. What would my win rate be? Problem 7
A sportsbook offers -400 on something that I think will win 75 percent of the time. Is that a good bet? Problem 8
A sportsbook offers a prop with -115 on one side and -115 on the other side. How does this compare with the normal

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Problem 3
If you can pick winners with 57 percent accuracy, what is your expected win rate if you make bets at -110? Problem 4
Suppose you are offered -800 on a bet that a game will not go into overtime, and suppose you evaluate the chance of overtime at five
percent.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, key poi


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
I think the break-even point is a line of -350. What is my edge if I am right about the -350? Problem 10
If I think the break-even point is a line of -350 on the Braves with Greg Maddux, and I want to invest my money only on bets on which I think
my edge is at least 10 percent, what is the worst line I should take? Solutions to Sample Problems
Problem 1
A sportsbook offers special prices on Thursday night:-105 for bets on sides, instead of the normal -110. What is the vig at -105, from the
standpoint of someone who has a 50-50 chance of winning a bet? If you make a wager of $105, you have a 50 percent chance of winning $100 and a 50 percent chance of losing $105. That’s $50 minus
$52.50. Your average loss is $2.50 on an investment of $105, or a loss rate of 2.38 percent. Here is another wa

CURRENT SUMMARY:
I think the break-even point is a line of -350. What is my edge if I am right about the -350?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, k


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you want to work out the arithmetic instead of grabbing the answer from table 1, it’s 105/205 x 100 or 51.22 percent. Problem 3
If you can pick winners with 57 percent accuracy, what is your expected win rate if you make bets at -110? Working with a bet of $110, you have 57 percent chance of cashing a ticket for $210, so the average ticket you buy will be cashed for
$119.70. Dividing by the $110 purchase price gives 8.8 percent return on investment. Problem 4
Suppose you are offered -800 on a bet that a game will not go into overtime, and suppose you evaluate the chance of overtime at five
percent. What is your edge on this bet? You have five percent chance of turning $800 into zero and 95 percent chance of turning $800 into $900. Multiplying .95 times $900 yields
$855. Thus an average

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you want to work out the arithmetic instead of grabbing the answer from table 1, it’s 105/205 x 100 or 51.22 percent. Problem 3
If you can pick winners with 57 percent accuracy, what is your expected win rate if you make bets at -110?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, key


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Problem 5
A sportsbook offers +185 on a particular prop. What percent of the time do you need to win that prop to break even? Table 1 gives the answer. +182 is associated with 35.5 percent chance of occurring, and +186 is associated with 35.0 percent chance of
occurring. Interpolation yields +185 being associated with 35.1 percent chance of occurring. So if you think the event has more than 35.1 percent
chance of happening, you have a positive EV on that bet. Problem 6
Suppose I can receive +185 on something that I think will happen around forty percent of the time. What would my win rate be? A bet of $100 will win $185 about 40 percent of the time, and will lose about 60 percent of the time. Thus the average $100 turns into $114,
which is 40 percent of $285. If your forty percent is accur

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Problem 5
A sportsbook offers +185 on a particular prop. What percent of the time do you need to win that prop to break even?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to work through this. So, the user has provided an excerpt from a sports betting document and wants me to refine a knowledge card based on it. They've also given some examples of h


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
No, it is not a good bet. Table 1 says you need to win 80.0 percent of the time to break even on bets you make at -400. You need to have
more than 80.0 percent chance of winning to have an edge. Your estimate of winning 75 percent of the time means the book has an edge over
you on that bet. Problem 8
A sportsbook offers a prop with -115 on one side and -115 on the other side. How does this compare with the normal -110 with regards to the
book’s expected win, in percent? At -110 you need 52.4 percent predictive accuracy to break even. At -115, table 1 says you need 53.5 percent predictive accuracy to break
even. At -110 on both teams, a sportsbook with balanced action earns $10 per $220 of action, or 4.5 percent. At -115 for both teams, a sportsbook with balanced action earns $15 per $230 o

CURRENT SUMMARY:
No, it is not a good bet. Table 1 says you need to win 80.0 percent of the time to break even on bets you make at -400.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, key


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
should round off the $295.64 to three digits, getting $296. If your -350 is right, the average $280 you invest in the Braves with Maddux will turn into $296. Dividing 296 by 280 yields 105.7 percent. You
have about a 5.7 percent edge on this bet. Problem 10
If I think the break-even point is a line of -350 on the Braves with Greg Maddux, and I want to invest my money only on bets on which I think
my edge is at least 10 percent, what is the worst line I should take? Table 1 again is the place to start. The win rate associated with a line of -350 is 77.8 percent winners. That 77.8 percent must cover both your wager and the 10 percent of your wager that you expect to gain. Thus that 77.8 percent must cover

CURRENT SUMMARY:
should round off the $295.64 to three digits, getting $296. If your -350 is right, the average $280 you invest in the Braves with Maddux will turn into $296.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, k


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Dividing 77.8 percent by 1.10 (which is 110 percent) yields 70.7 percent. That’s the break-even win rate you need in order to have an
expected result of getting your money back plus 10 percent. Table 1 also is the place to finish. For a break-even win rate of 70.7 percent, table 1 says you need bet terms between -239 and -245. Interpolation gives -241. In summary, if you think the line should be -350 and you want to earn 10 percent on your investment, you should hold out for a line of -241 or
better.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Dividing 77.8 percent by 1.10 (which is 110 percent) yields 70.7 percent. That’s the break-even win rate you need in order to have an
expected result of getting your money back plus 10 percent.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, k


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Betting lines on sports events are similar to the prices of common stocks. Both are set by the actions of buyers and sellers in a market. Finding profitable sports bets is similar to outperforming the stock market. (Outperforming means obtaining returns in excess of what the
market generally offers for the level of risk involved.)
To earn excess profits in the stock market, you must either have information that is not available to the general public, or you must have a
superior ability to process the information that is public. If you are trading stocks based on the same information that is available to other investors, and you do not have superior ability to figure out
how that information will cause stock prices to change, you are spinning your wheels. You will have some winners and you

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Betting lines on sports events are similar to the prices of common stocks. Both are set by the actions of buyers and sellers in a market.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, key


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The stock market has an upward drift over time. A stock price is more likely to go up than down (though sometimes that is hard to believe). If you stay invested in the stock market long enough, and if you avoid churning your portfolio so much that transaction fees eat up all your
profits, you will make money in the stock market. That is true even if your method of selecting stocks is attaching a copy of the Wall Street Journal
to your wall and throwing darts at it. There is no upward drift in bets on sports events. If you attach a list of all possible sports bets to your wall and throw darts at it to select the
games you will bet, you will lose over time. In order to make money betting on sports, you must either have information that is not being used by the betting public, or you must hav

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The stock market has an upward drift over time. A stock price is more likely to go up than down (though sometimes that is hard to believe).

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples and wants a specific format with a summary, k


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Best Simple Strategy
A lively topic of discussion on BJ21.com has been: What is the best simple strategy for betting sports? Suppose a person who knows nothing about sports is given a free bet on a game, and gets to select the team. Which is generally the better
choice, the favorite or the dog? Home team or visiting team? An easy answer is to bet a dog. The historical data show that betting dogs is superior to betting favorites. See for example the chapter in this
book on NFL results against the spread. Most bettors look for reasons to bet on a team, rather than for reasons to bet against a team. Most bettors
seem to back favorites. Bookmaker James Jeffries in his The Book on Bookies describes the betting preferences of his customers. Jeffries says
that his customers are all so solidly in

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Best Simple Strategy
A lively topic of discussion on BJ21.com has been: What is the best simple strategy for betting sports? Suppose a person who knows nothing about sports is given a free bet on a game, and gets to select the team.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They provided several examples and want a specific format with a summary, key points, and themes. The user's st


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A better answer might be to bet a home dog. In the NFL since 1985, all the excess wins enjoyed by dogs have gone to home dogs. Traveling
dogs have not accomplished excess wins, at least not in the NFL between 1985 and 2000. Over that sixteen year period, home dogs have
covered 52.7 percent of the time. Caution: That sample size is too small for the result to have any statistical significance. But if a person must
make a sports bet, my advice is to take a dog playing at home. A better answer yet would be to bet the biggest home dog you can find. (This probably is not a profitable strategy; it simply is a way for
someone who is going to bet no matter what to lose the least expected value.)
Early Lines
Suppose somebody asks: “What is the line on the Packers-Lions game?” What that person means

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A better answer might be to bet a home dog. In the NFL since 1985, all the excess wins enjoyed by dogs have gone to home dogs.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me a specific format to follow, which includes a summary, key points


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A better answer yet would be to bet the biggest home dog you can find. (This probably is not a profitable strategy; it simply is a way for
someone who is going to bet no matter what to lose the least expected value.)
Early Lines
Suppose somebody asks: “What is the line on the Packers-Lions game?” What that person means is what are the terms that sportsbooks are
offering for wagers on the game. The answer usually is expressed as a team and a number, for example: “Packers -3.”
The line can be positive or it can be negative. If the Packers are three-point favorites over the Lions, then the line could be expressed as
Packers -3 or Lions +3. If the two teams are so evenly matched that the game looks like a toss-up, the line is said to be even and is written on the boards in
sportsbooks as PK. I

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A better answer yet would be to bet the biggest home dog you can find. (This probably is not a profitable strategy; it simply is a way for
someone who is going to bet no matter what to lose the least expected value.)
Early Lines
Suppose somebody asks: “What is the line on the Packers-Lions game?” What that person means is what are the terms that sportsbooks are
offering for wagers on the game.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, I need to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The user has provided a specific excerpt from the document and the current summary. My task is to create an improve


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If the odds are not given, the default is whatever are the normal odds offered by the sportsbook for that type of bet. The standard default odds
in the sportsbooks of Nevada are -110, meaning the bettor wagers $110 in an attempt to win $100. The -110 is not cut into stone. It is a number that has been used by Nevada sportsbook for years, and has proven to be low enough to attract
bets from customers and yet high enough for the books to make enough money to survive. Various Las Vegas books sometimes offer special
odds to try to attract big bets; if you are making football bets in Las Vegas, ask around and you might learn about places where you can bet NFL
sides for -105 for limited hours on selected days. If the odds on a bet are other than the usual, which in Nevada means other than -110,

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If the odds are not given, the default is whatever are the normal odds offered by the sportsbook for that type of bet. The standard default odds
in the sportsbooks of Nevada are -110, meaning the bettor wagers $110 in an attempt to win $100.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

First, there's something about


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You might for
example find Rams -3 -115, which means you must wager $115 to try to win $100 if you want to bet on the Rams -3. If the Rams are -3 -115 and
they are playing the Saints, the line on the Saints will be +3 -105. This situation means the Rams are slightly stronger than three points better than
the Saints, but not so much stronger as to justify a line of Rams -3.5. Not all lines are the same. A lot of thought goes into the lines that are posted for major events, of which the Super Bowl is the most major of
all. At the other extreme, not much time is spent on constructing lines for exotic bets. Exotic Bets
First look at exotics, which are the same thing as prop bets. Here is an example. Prior to the start of the 2001 baseball season, the Imperial
Palace in Las Vegas offered an ext

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You might for
example find Rams -3 -115, which means you must wager $115 to try to win $100 if you want to bet on the Rams -3. If the Rams are -3 -115 and
they are playing the Saints, the line on the Saints will be +3 -105.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

First, there's something about


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
McGwire held the all-time record for most homers in a season with 70. McGwire and Sosa were co-favorites to hit the most homers in
2001; each was listed at 4:1. But in a head-to-head matchup between the two men, the prop sheet listed McGwire as +110 and Sosa as -140. Sosa was born on 11/12/68, making him 32 at the start of the 2001 season. McGwire was born on 10/01/63, making him 37 at the start of the
season. McGwire had a history of physical ailments that kept him out of the lineup for weeks or months at a time; Sosa had been sturdy, seldom
missing a game. I thought that Sosa was going to get 50 or so homers almost for sure, while McGwire had a small chance of having a huge year
but a large chance of missing a lot of games due to injury. Thus I thought that Sosa to hit more homers than M

CURRENT SUMMARY:
McGwire held the all-time record for most homers in a season with 70. McGwire and Sosa were co-favorites to hit the most homers in
2001; each was listed at 4:1.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's break this down. The user provided a detailed conversation history where they were refining a sports betting knowledge card based on various excerpts. Each time, they were extracting th


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The max bet was a payoff of $500. The clerk accepted my max bet of $725,
and then immediately walked over to where the bet was listed on the board and changed the numbers to McGwire +120, Sosa -160. I came back a couple of hours later, and Sosa was still -160. I made another max bet, giving the clerk $800. After accepting my bet, the clerk
walked over to the listing and changed it to McGwire +140, Sosa -180. I came back the next day, and the numbers were unchanged: McGwire +140, Sosa -180. That says something about how much attention that
prop was getting from other bettors. One day it was McGwire +115, Sosa -145; my bets caused it to change to McGwire +140, Sosa -180; and the
next day those numbers were still up on the board. There was no new information that affected the bet in that one

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The max bet was a payoff of $500. The clerk accepted my max bet of $725,
and then immediately walked over to where the bet was listed on the board and changed the numbers to McGwire +120, Sosa -160.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

First, there's something about


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You would think that raising the payoff on McGwire from +115 to +140 would bring in some money
on McGwire. But if the change attracted any McGwire money, the amount was not enough to cause the odds to change. My bets undoubtedly
were a major part of the total wagered on that prop over those 24 hours. Perhaps my bets were the only bets on either side of the prop during
those 24 hours. How much thought went into the original line of McGwire +110, Sosa -140? Probably not much. The line on Sosa was changed to -160 and
then to -180 purely because of my bets. The line did not move because the people behind the counter rethought the prop and suddenly agreed
with me that Sosa was much more likely than McGwire to stay healthy. Had I made max bets on McGwire instead of Sosa, the line probably
would

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You would think that raising the payoff on McGwire from +115 to +140 would bring in some money
on McGwire. But if the change attracted any McGwire money, the amount was not enough to cause the odds to change.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to figure out how to approach this user's query. They've given me a conversation history where they're asking me to act as an expert knowledge assistant to refine a sports betti


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The Imperial Palace has limited time for thinking up exotic bets, and must do it cheaply in order to make a profit overall. That means the
Imperial Palace can’t justify spending excessive time researching each prop bet. Individual customers undoubtedly devote more time to analyzing some of the Imperial Palace’s exotic offerings than the Imperial Palace
spends creating them. I did not spend any time analyzing McGwire vs. Sosa; I liked that bet as soon as I saw it. But there have been a number of
other Imperial Palace props that I’m sure I spent more time analyzing than the person or people who created them. There are two reasons why the Imperial Palace does not have to worry if the lines on some of its exotic bets are soft. One reason is the max
bet. Even if Imperial Palace makes a big mist

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The Imperial Palace has limited time for thinking up exotic bets, and must do it cheaply in order to make a profit overall. That means the
Imperial Palace can’t justify spending excessive time researching each prop bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's break this down. The user has provided a detailed conversation history where they're asking me to act as an expert knowledge assistant to refine a sports betting knowledge card. They've


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Even if Imperial Palace makes a big mistake on an exotic, a customer who finds the mistake can take advantage of it for only a small number
of dollars, $500 at the time of this writing. After accepting a max bet on a prop, the sportsbook can change the bet to make that side less attractive
and the other side more attractive. I could have continued to bet more and more money on Sosa to outhomer McGwire, but each successive bet
would have been at worse odds. The other reason is the large spread between the two sides of the proposition. The sportsbook occasionally puts
up a prop that ends up costing it money, but any such losses are small compared to what the book makes on the props that get action on both
sides, and props that get an imbalance of action on the losing side. So for props, one

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Even if Imperial Palace makes a big mistake on an exotic, a customer who finds the mistake can take advantage of it for only a small number
of dollars, $500 at the time of this writing. After accepting a max bet on a prop, the sportsbook can change the bet to make that side less attractive
and the other side more attractive.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

First, there's something abo


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
So for props, one reality is that if you examine enough of them, you are going to find some that promise a huge expected return. But another
reality of prop bets is that you won’t be able to make a huge number of dollars on them, due to your not being able to wager a huge number of
dollars without drastically affecting the odds. Thus you will have a large percentage edge but will win a small number of dollars. For example, I
put a few more max bets on Sosa, but each bet was to win only $500. I’d have loved to have won $20,000 betting Sosa to outhomer McGwire
during the 2001 baseball season, but there was no way I could have gotten that much money down. Either the Imperial Palace would have
moved the line against me after each max bet until further bets were no longer worthwhile, or the pro

CURRENT SUMMARY:
So for props, one reality is that if you examine enough of them, you are going to find some that promise a huge expected return. But another
reality of prop bets is that you won’t be able to make a huge number of dollars on them, due to your not being able to wager a huge number of
dollars without drastically affecting the odds.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

First, there's something abo


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Either the Imperial Palace would have
moved the line against me after each max bet until further bets were no longer worthwhile, or the prop would have been removed from the board,
or the welcome mat for further bets would have been yanked from beneath my feet. Super Bowl
Whereas an obscure prop bet might be the brainchild of a single person investing a few minutes of time, the early line for the spread on the
Super Bowl is the product of several people’s investing much thought. The initial spread for the Super Bowl is a much more solid number than the
early odds on a prop. From the time the early line is posted, a huge volume of dollars flows into bets on the Super Bowl. If the initial line on the Super Bowl is not
splitting the early money as evenly as another number would, the line is c

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Either the Imperial Palace would have
moved the line against me after each max bet until further bets were no longer worthwhile, or the prop would have been removed from the board,
or the welcome mat for further bets would have been yanked from beneath my feet. Super Bowl
Whereas an obscure prop bet might be the brainchild of a single person investing a few minutes of time, the early line for the

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this. So, I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

First, t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A sportsbook does not mind if an obscure prop gets
one-sided action, but the Super Bowl brings in too much money to make one-sided action palatable. Super Bowls are different from other sporting events in that most of the dollars wagered against the spread on the Super Bowl come from
unsophisticated bettors. To sharps, the Super Bowl is just another bet. There is no mathematical justification for a sharp’s betting more money on one team in the
Super Bowl than he or she would bet on any other game. When linesmakers try to balance the action on a Super Bowl, it’s unsophisticated action they are trying to split, half on each team. It’s
logically possible that all the sharps are betting on the same side of a Super Bowl, and the sportsbooks don’t mind if they do. Bettors shop around for Super B

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A sportsbook does not mind if an obscure prop gets
one-sided action, but the Super Bowl brings in too much money to make one-sided action palatable. Super Bowls are different from other sporting events in that most of the dollars wagered against the spread on the Super Bowl come from
unsophisticated bettors.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure this out. I'm supposed to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on an excerpt. The user has given me the excerpt, a current summary, and wants


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Bettors shop around for Super Bowl lines, quickly bringing the various sportsbooks into agreement on their line for that game. Unlike the situation with prop bets at Imperial Palace, the bets of any one individual on the Super Bowl do not cause the line to change. One
person’s bets are simply too small compared to the total being wagered by all bettors. If you want to bet $20,000 on one side to win the Super
Bowl, you can do so easily without moving the line. However, there is a downside to betting on which team will win the Super Bowl. The downside is the line on the Super Bowl is much more
efficient than the lines on prop bets. That means that all the information that you might consider before making your bet has already been
considered by other bettors, and has already been factored int

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Bettors shop around for Super Bowl lines, quickly bringing the various sportsbooks into agreement on their line for that game. Unlike the situation with prop bets at Imperial Palace, the bets of any one individual on the Super Bowl do not cause the line to change.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about the Sup


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Thus betting on the Super Bowl is quite different from betting on exotics. In the Super Bowl you can bet huge, whereas on exotics the amount
you can bet is limited. In the Super Bowl it’s difficult to get an edge, whereas on selected exotics it can be easy to get an edge. Other Games
Exotics and the Super Bowl define the extremes. Bets on other games fall between those extremes. Creating early lines for the first week of a new season requires a considerable investment of time on the part of linesmakers, because there is
much information to consider. Every new season brings new players, new coaches, changes in the rules, etc. Creating the early lines for subsequent games is much faster. The process involves extrapolating each team’s performances in the season to
date, with allowances for in

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Thus betting on the Super Bowl is quite different from betting on exotics. In the Super Bowl you can bet huge, whereas on exotics the amount
you can bet is limited.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about the


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
There is a company whose business is consulting on lines for sportsbooks: Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC). The handicapping
experts employed by LVSC create lines that can be purchased by sportsbooks. An early line is an expert opinion, but it is an expert opinion rendered by a group of people who must create lines on dozens or hundreds of
games in a short period of time. Thus there is opportunity for bettors to find soft spots. Why Lines Change
Sharps Bet Early
Early lines on most games are solid, but a few are soft, meaning sharp bettors can find an edge. Sportsbooks like to find those soft spots
quickly, and move the numbers to remove the softness. The way that is done is to hold early bettors to lower limits. The sportsbook is quicker to
move the lines in response to early bets than

CURRENT SUMMARY:
There is a company whose business is consulting on lines for sportsbooks: Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC). The handicapping
experts employed by LVSC create lines that can be purchased by sportsbooks.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about a co


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The sportsbook is quicker to
move the lines in response to early bets than to bets that come in closer to game time. For an interesting account of the process of sharps working the softness out of a line back in the days when Stardust hung the first lines, see
Chad Millman’s The Odds, pages 83-87. How much adjustment will the sharps cause? If an early line is +8 and they think it should be +4, they are going to bet it off of +8 but they are
not going to make the final bet that causes the line to move from +4.5 to +4, because they must wager $110 to try to win $100, and the cost of the
vig is greater than the expected value of the half point. They may not make the bet that would move it from +5 to +4.5 either, because they might
not see that bet as being profitable enough. They will stop ma

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The sportsbook is quicker to
move the lines in response to early bets than to bets that come in closer to game time. For an interesting account of the process of sharps working the softness out of a line back in the days when Stardust hung the first lines, see
Chad Millman’s The Odds, pages 83-87.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how spo


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Balanced Action? Ideally, from the viewpoint of the sportsbook, the line should never move up or down, it should attract huge action on both teams, and by the
time the game starts there should be approximately the same number of dollars bet on each team. At least that’s what most people think. It’s not
true. Better than that, from the viewpoint of the sportsbook, is when are a whole lot more dollars bet on one team than on the other, and the team
with all the action on it is the one that loses. While competing in the Stardust football tournament in the fall of 2000, I had the opportunity to ask Robert Walker, race and sportsbook
director at MGM Mirage, whether his company’s action is balanced on football games. I mentioned that it seemed to me that on about half the
games, most people who

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Balanced Action? Ideally, from the viewpoint of the sportsbook, the line should never move up or down, it should attract huge action on both teams, and by the
time the game starts there should be approximately the same number of dollars bet on each team.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about balance


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
I said it therefore appeared to me that sportsbooks might be taking lopsided
action on about half of all NFL games. Walker answered that what I hypothesized was indeed the case. He said he does not mind lopsided
action as long as his sportsbook makes money overall on those games. Then I asked him why he did not make more line moves to try to balance the action. His answer was that to move the line to try to balance the
action would result in less profit for the sportsbook. Balanced action is seldom achieved. It’s a myth that balancing the action is the purpose of the line, except in the case of the Super Bowl. Games With Less Public Interest
Sharps are willing to bet on any game, and the amount of money they are willing to bet depends on their perceived edge. The amount of
money wagered on

CURRENT SUMMARY:
I said it therefore appeared to me that sportsbooks might be taking lopsided
action on about half of all NFL games. Walker answered that what I hypothesized was indeed the case.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about a co


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The amount of
money wagered on a game by unsophisticated bettors, sometimes called squares or the public, varies from game to game and sport to sport. Some sports attract lesser amounts of unsophisticated action: NBA regular-season games, hockey, baseball, and regular-season college
basketball games. If there is any big action on such games, it most likely comes from sharps. Lopsided action can mean somebody knows more
about the game than do the linesmakers. Games that are not televised generally attract a lower volume of bets from unsophisticated bettors. If enough sharps agree that a team is good value, the amount of money they are capable of betting is huge. Therefore, on games that attract
less money from unsophisticated bettors, sportsbooks must be quick to move the line in response t

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The amount of
money wagered on a game by unsophisticated bettors, sometimes called squares or the public, varies from game to game and sport to sport. Some sports attract lesser amounts of unsophisticated action: NBA regular-season games, hockey, baseball, and regular-season college
basketball games.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about the amo


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Therefore, on games that attract
less money from unsophisticated bettors, sportsbooks must be quick to move the line in response to lopsided action. Games with lesser amounts of bets from unsophisticated bettors are the ones on which sportsbooks like to have balanced action, because a
big imbalance of action on such a game might mean the sportsbook does not have an edge. Games With More Public Interest
Games that are televised attract more public money than do games that are not televised. Playoff games attract more public money than do
regular-season games. The Super Bowl attracts the highest percentage of unsophisticated money, of course. The next highest percentage of unsophisticated money
is on other high-profile games, such as the World Series, the NBA playoffs, and regular-season NFL

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Therefore, on games that attract
less money from unsophisticated bettors, sportsbooks must be quick to move the line in response to lopsided action. Games with lesser amounts of bets from unsophisticated bettors are the ones on which sportsbooks like to have balanced action, because a
big imbalance of action on such a game might mean the sportsbook does not have an edge.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
College football and the NCAA
basketball playoffs attract the next-highest proportion of unsophisticated money. After that come NBA regular-season games, hockey, baseball,
and regular-season college basketball games. On games on which the bulk of wagers come from unsophisticated bettors, the sportsbook might actually welcome lopsided action, if the
manager of the sportsbook thinks that the side with the most action is the side most likely to lose. Sportsbook managers think like sharps; they are
happy to have their books take risk as long as higher risk is accompanied by enough expected profit. Maximum Profits for Sportsbook
One way the theoretical hold percentage can be achieved is if the line stays constant from the time it is first hung until game time, and both
sides get equal action. A

CURRENT SUMMARY:
College football and the NCAA
basketball playoffs attract the next-highest proportion of unsophisticated money. After that come NBA regular-season games, hockey, baseball,
and regular-season college basketball games.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how col


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Another way the theoretical hold percentage can be achieved is if the opening line handicaps the game perfectly, with each side having an
equal chance of winning the game. When this happens the theoretical hold percentage may not be achieved on any single game, but it has the
expectation of being achieved on average over many games. Sportsbook managers strive to achieve better than the theoretical hold percentage. They try to set lines so that the excess action is on the
side that is less likely to win. It’s easier to do this on games with a higher proportion of money being bet by unsophisticated bettors. Suppose that a sportsbook manager thinks there is a 50 percent chance that Baltimore will win Sunday’s game by more than 7.5 points. And
further suppose that the manager thinks that hangi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Another way the theoretical hold percentage can be achieved is if the opening line handicaps the game perfectly, with each side having an
equal chance of winning the game. When this happens the theoretical hold percentage may not be achieved on any single game, but it has the
expectation of being achieved on average over many games.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
And
further suppose that the manager thinks that hanging a line of Baltimore -7.5 would attract an imbalance of action on Baltimore, but that a line of
Baltimore -10 would split the action evenly between Baltimore and its opponent. A line of Baltimore -7.5 would allow the sportsbook to achieve its theoretical hold percentage, as would a line of Baltimore -10. At a line of Baltimore -7, most of the action would come in on Baltimore, and Baltimore would be the side that is most likely to cover, so the

sportsbook would not have an edge. At a line of Baltimore -10.5, most of the action would come in on Baltimore’s opponent, and that would be the side most likely to cover, so the
sportsbook would not have an edge. Any line between Baltimore -8 and Baltimore -9.5 will attract more money on the

CURRENT SUMMARY:
And
further suppose that the manager thinks that hanging a line of Baltimore -7.5 would attract an imbalance of action on Baltimore, but that a line of
Baltimore -10 would split the action evenly between Baltimore and its opponent. A line of Baltimore -7.5 would allow the sportsbook to achieve its theoretical hold percentage, as would a line of Baltimore -10.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how spo


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Any line between Baltimore -8 and Baltimore -9.5 will attract more money on the side that is less likely to cover the spread, and give the
sportsbook the expectation of achieving better than the theoretical hold percentage. The manager wants to make money for the business, and the more money the better. The point of maximum dollars of profit could come at
Baltimore -7.5, or it could come at Baltimore -10, but more likely it would come at a number between -7.5 and -10. Within the range of -7.5 and 9.5, the sportsbook would knowingly be accepting an imbalance of action on Baltimore. Sure the sportsbook takes extra risk by intentionally accepting an imbalance of action on Baltimore. But the sportsbook diversifies by also
accepting bets on many other games, each of which is independent. Theref

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Any line between Baltimore -8 and Baltimore -9.5 will attract more money on the side that is less likely to cover the spread, and give the
sportsbook the expectation of achieving better than the theoretical hold percentage. The manager wants to make money for the business, and the more money the better.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Therefore the risk due to an imbalance in action on any one game is
unimportant unless the action on that game is huge, as is the case with the Super Bowl. In the real world of course, the sportsbook manager does not know for certain the spread at which Baltimore has a 50 percent chance of
covering. But between his expertise and the expertise he has access to, the manager comes up with a good estimate of that spread. Likewise in the real world, the sportsbook manager does not know for certain the spread at which action would be split evenly between both
teams. He does not need to know it. Suppose the manager thinks Baltimore has around a 50 percent chance of covering a spread of eight points. Further suppose the manager
thinks that an excess of money will be coming in on Baltimore if he ha

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Therefore the risk due to an imbalance in action on any one game is
unimportant unless the action on that game is huge, as is the case with the Super Bowl. In the real world of course, the sportsbook manager does not know for certain the spread at which Baltimore has a 50 percent chance of
covering.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
He’s not trying to balance the action on the game, and he’s not even trying to attract bets against Baltimore. What he is trying to do is
gain a little extra advantage from all those squares who will bet Baltimore no matter what the spread. If he hangs Baltimore -8.5 instead of
Baltimore -8, then one possible game outcome that would have been a push for Baltimore bettors becomes a win for the sportsbook. The result will be a line that might attract sharp money to the unpopular team. The manager does not really want sharp action, but will put up
with a little bit of it in order to get an extra-big edge over a larger amount of action on the popular team. If the manager can set a line that will attract some but not a lot of sharp action on the unpopular team, the resulting spread will win mor

CURRENT SUMMARY:
He’s not trying to balance the action on the game, and he’s not even trying to attract bets against Baltimore. What he is trying to do is
gain a little extra advantage from all those squares who will bet Baltimore no matter what the spread.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If the manager can set a line that will attract some but not a lot of sharp action on the unpopular team, the resulting spread will win more
money for the business than if the line split the action evenly. After hanging a line that takes extra advantage of squares but might attract sharp action to the other team, the sportsbook manager needs
only to keep tabs on the bets of people known to be good handicappers. Squares prefer to bet favorites more often than not. So the manager is more likely to hang a line that penalizes betting on favorites. There is a Limit
Of course there must be a limit to the dollar amount of lopsidedness of action the manager will tolerate. The manager does not know with
certainty what line handicaps the game perfectly; there is always a chance that a customer has a

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If the manager can set a line that will attract some but not a lot of sharp action on the unpopular team, the resulting spread will win more
money for the business than if the line split the action evenly. After hanging a line that takes extra advantage of squares but might attract sharp action to the other team, the sportsbook manager needs
only to keep tabs on the bets of people known to be good

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how spo


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The manager does not know with
certainty what line handicaps the game perfectly; there is always a chance that a customer has a superior line on an individual game. A manager
who hangs a line that is too far out of whack with what is offered at another sportsbook is taking a chance, because profits to arbitragers who bet
both sides show up as losses for one or both sportsbooks. Any manager who feels too exposed on an individual game will move the line. The Bottom Line
The line on a game is the number that the sportsbook manager thinks has the highest expected win for the business, consistent with the risk
the manager is willing to accept. What that means, where possible, is setting the lines in such a way as to earn a higher percentage on the bets of
those people who are going to bet on th

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The manager does not know with
certainty what line handicaps the game perfectly; there is always a chance that a customer has a superior line on an individual game. A manager
who hangs a line that is too far out of whack with what is offered at another sportsbook is taking a chance, because profits to arbitragers who bet
both sides show up as losses for one or both sportsbooks.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Dollars flow into sportsbooks from sharps and from squares, and squares generally prefer to bet favorites. Thus the line generally is set so
that the dog is slightly better value for the customer than is the favorite. The sportsbook can earn more dollars of expected win from squares by raising the cost of betting favorites. But if dogs become too attractive
to sharps, they will bet and win some of the money that sportsbooks are winning from squares backing favorites. Maximum profit for the sportsbook comes at spreads that take advantage of squares without attracting too many bets from sharps. Getting an Edge
As in picking winners in the stock market, picking winners at sports bets requires information not public, or a superior ability to process public
information. You probably do not have

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Dollars flow into sportsbooks from sharps and from squares, and squares generally prefer to bet favorites. Thus the line generally is set so
that the dog is slightly better value for the customer than is the favorite.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Breaking news
b. Superior use of existing data
c. Motivation
The more money being bet on a game by other people, the bigger the bet you can make without moving the line. The more money being bet
on a game, the more likely the information available to you is already factored into the line. Breaking News
To profit from news, generally you must hear the news quickly and you must act on it quickly. Here are some examples. Example: Food Poisoning
Suppose Arizona State is a three-point favorite over Wake Forest in the upcoming Aloha Bowl. Further suppose that the night before the
game, ten members of the Arizona State team come down with food poisoning. Obviously that will impact Arizona State’s chances of winning the

game. The way that news gets factored into the spread is by the actions of be

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Breaking news
b. Superior use of existing data
c.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how spo


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you hear the news and then find a sportsbook that still lists
Wake Forest +3, you can be part of the process of moving the line to where it should be. If, by the time you try to bet, the line is Wake Forest +1,
you are too late; the food poisoning has already been factored into the line. Example: Injury to a Key Player
Cleveland was +9 in a game coming up at Pittsburgh on 22 October 2000. During practice a few days before the game, Cleveland’s
quarterback Tim Couch was injured. Couch was a major part of Cleveland’s offense. Bettors who first heard about the injury were the ones who
moved the line to Cleveland +13. Cleveland really missed its quarterback, losing 22-0. Example: Stadium vote in Phoenix
On 5 November 2000, the Arizona Cardinals were a 10-point underdog to the Washington Red

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you hear the news and then find a sportsbook that still lists
Wake Forest +3, you can be part of the process of moving the line to where it should be. If, by the time you try to bet, the line is Wake Forest +1,
you are too late; the food poisoning has already been factored into the line.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Two days later, on Tuesday the 7th,
Phoenix voters would vote on whether to construct a new football stadium. After Arizona won outright 16-15, accounts of the game credited the
upcoming election as motivating Arizona to play an inspired game against Washington. The players got what they wanted: The stadium vote
passed. The line of Arizona +10 seemed to totally ignore the upcoming stadium vote. It was as if football bettors read only the sports page and the
weather reports, ignoring the rest of the newspaper. I had Arizona +10 because I like double-digit NFL home dogs; had I known about the
upcoming election, I would have made a bigger bet on Arizona. Examples: XFL
The XFL played its first season in early 2001. On 13 February 2001, the announcement “XFL promises to speed up its games after

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Two days later, on Tuesday the 7th,
Phoenix voters would vote on whether to construct a new football stadium. After Arizona won outright 16-15, accounts of the game credited the
upcoming election as motivating Arizona to play an inspired game against Washington.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how spo


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The change was to take place immediately, meaning it would impact the games scheduled for the upcoming
weekend. Sportsbooks did not react to the news, and did not immediately reduce their totals. When the news item was brought to the attention of
green chippers on BJ21.com, all who were inclined to bet sports quickly jumped on the unders. Unders won, as the average number of plays run
during an XFL game declined by ten percent, bringing the scores down too.
“XFL promises to speed up its games after overtime contest”
Tuesday, February 13, 2001
NEW YORK (AP) — If ratings for the XFL keep sinking, its operators might consider pitting angry NBC executives against one another
— no pads allowed. The XFL promised Tuesday to speed up its games after Saturday’s double-overtime contest caused a 45-m

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The change was to take place immediately, meaning it would impact the games scheduled for the upcoming
weekend. Sportsbooks did not react to the news, and did not immediately reduce their totals.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this. So, I'm supposed to help refine a knowledge card based on a sports betting document. The user has provided a specific excerpt, and they want me to extract the most importan


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The XFL promised Tuesday to speed up its games after Saturday’s double-overtime contest caused a 45-minute delay starting
“Saturday Night Live,” reportedly infuriating the show’s founding producer, Lorne Michaels.
... Ebersol wasn’t talking Tuesday, but his spokeswoman, Cameron Blanchard, said the XFL will cut its pregame introductions by at least
five minutes, shorten the halftime breaks and try to keep the clock moving. For example, the time clock will start when the ball is placed on the line of scrimmage following incomplete passes and changes of
possession, instead of waiting until the ball is snapped.
— David Bauder, AP Television Writer
Two weeks later came the announcement: “Bump and run gets the boot.” That change also was to start immediately. Sportsbooks did not
react to that ne

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The XFL promised Tuesday to speed up its games after Saturday’s double-overtime contest caused a 45-minute delay starting
“Saturday Night Live,” reportedly infuriating the show’s founding producer, Lorne Michaels. Ebersol wasn’t talking Tuesday, but his spokeswoman, Cameron Blanchard, said the XFL will cut its pregame introductions by at least
five minutes, shorten the halftime breaks and try to k

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about the


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Sportsbooks did not
react to that news either, and did not immediately increase their totals. That news announcement was also brought to the attention of the
BJ21.com community, with the result that they quickly bet overs, and they were rewarded when scoring rose ten percent.
“Bump and run gets the boot”
Wednesday, February 28, 2001
LAS VEGAS - Faced with few touchdowns and low TV ratings, the XFL will make a significant rule change this week. The XFL will no longer allow defenses to play bump-and-run past five yards. This is the same rule used by the NFL. Prior to the rule change, XFL defenders could make contact against receivers the entire way down field. The official announcement on
this rule change should occur Thursday, according to two league sources.
— Stephen Nover, Senior Sports

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Sportsbooks did not
react to that news either, and did not immediately increase their totals. That news announcement was also brought to the attention of the
BJ21.com community, with the result that they quickly bet overs, and they were rewarded when scoring rose ten percent.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Prior to the rule change, XFL defenders could make contact against receivers the entire way down field. The official announcement on
this rule change should occur Thursday, according to two league sources.
— Stephen Nover, Senior Sports Analyst, VegasInsider.com
Superior Use of Existing Data
If you like a team for reasons that were considered by the linesmakers and the sharps who bet into the early line, then you probably do not
have a good bet. Those people looked at won-loss records, yards gained on the ground and yards gained in the air, yards given up by the
defense, turnovers, injuries, past opponents, and future opponents. The linesmakers know what day of the week the game is being played, and
who is the home team. They know which teams are in which divisions. They know what happened

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Prior to the rule change, XFL defenders could make contact against receivers the entire way down field. The official announcement on
this rule change should occur Thursday, according to two league sources.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you are
selecting a team based on those factors, be aware that the linesmakers have already considered the same data on which you are basing your
analysis. If you watched a game and think you saw something that would give you a good bet in a future game, be aware that at least some of the
linesmakers who create the early line and some of the sharps who bet into it also watched the same game you did. Overcompensation in the lines is common, particularly when one team is coming off a big loss or big win that was televised. The public
sometimes overvalues a team’s most recent performance. There are people who can make money by analyzing the same data that are available to others. For example, if you are a former
professional baseball player who knows baseball inside and out, you know how t

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you are
selecting a team based on those factors, be aware that the linesmakers have already considered the same data on which you are basing your
analysis. If you watched a game and think you saw something that would give you a good bet in a future game, be aware that at least some of the
linesmakers who create the early line and some of the sharps who bet into it also watched the same game you

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
There are people who can make money by analyzing the same data that are available to others. For example, if you are a former
professional baseball player who knows baseball inside and out, you know how to evaluate baseball players, you know ballparks, you know
baseball strategy, and you know how the different variables interact with one another, then it’s entirely possible that you can find good baseball
bets while looking at the same information that is available to everyone else. Many serious bettors create “power ratings.” Power ratings are numbers, one number per team, that are used to estimate what the spreads

should be. The idea is to give each team a number to represent its strength, and then for each game to subtract the power rating of one team from
the power rating of the other

CURRENT SUMMARY:
There are people who can make money by analyzing the same data that are available to others. For example, if you are a former
professional baseball player who knows baseball inside and out, you know how to evaluate baseball players, you know ballparks, you know
baseball strategy, and you know how the different variables interact with one another, then it’s entirely possible that you can find good

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Power ratings created by other people are available in
numerous places on the Internet and in newspapers. One interesting source of information is TwoMinuteWarning.com It looks at the NFL from a lot of angles. I have no financial interest in
TwoMinuteWarning.com; I merely enjoy visiting it. TwoMinuteWarning.com uses mathematical models to analyze data from past games. The data from past games reflect a team’s average
performance over those games. TwoMinuteWarning.com predicts how much one team should beat another if both teams play up to their ability as
displayed in past games. If you want to find bets based on doing your own analysis of existing data, I suggest staying away from the National Football League. NFL
past results must be the most overanalyzed data in the world. Pick some obsc

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Power ratings created by other people are available in
numerous places on the Internet and in newspapers. One interesting source of information is TwoMinuteWarning.com It looks at the NFL from a lot of angles.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Pick some obscure college conference, and learn everything there is to learn about
all the basketball teams in that conference, or about all the football teams in that conference. Then bet only games involving those teams. If you want to make bets based on analysis of existing data, my suggestion is to keep a separate record of those bets so that at any time you
can review your past performance to be sure you really are picking winners based on analysis of existing data. Personally, I have never spent much time handicapping sports because I am too busy handicapping the stock market. As for your comments that one needs non-public info or better processing of public info, you forgot one other reality. Smaller cap stocks
are generally not well followed and often you can make money in them eve

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Pick some obscure college conference, and learn everything there is to learn about
all the basketball teams in that conference, or about all the football teams in that conference. Then bet only games involving those teams.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. I've read a few excerpts, and I want to make sure I get the key points right. Let's see what we have here.

The excerpt talks about how