Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
In the NHL, a place to look for modeling errors is during the
second period. Scoring rates are higher in the second period
versus the first and third because in the second period the teams
attack the nets on the same side as their benches. This means that
line changes happen further up the ice for each team and create
better attacking situations. A good model should pick this effect
up, but a weak model might use a constant scoring rate for the
rest of the game, without realizing the dip that comes at the end
of the second period. Also in the NHL, goalie-pulling strategy differs from team to
team, and again, it’s unlikely any in-play model will capture that
accurately on a team-by-team basis. The algorithm will likely
expect each team to pull their goalie according to a league a

CURRENT SUMMARY:
In the NHL, a place to look for modeling errors is during the
second period. Scoring rates are higher in the second period
versus the first and third because in the second period the teams
attack the nets on the same side as their benches.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The algorithm will likely
expect each team to pull their goalie according to a league average
strategy—or worse, according to whatever was league average
five years ago. If you can track which teams are extreme with their goalie
pulling—say pulling very early in most situations and also pulling
reliably down two goals—then you can wait for a goalie-pulling
situation to begin to materialize for any of those teams and hit the
over. Going back to basketball, there’s another trend in the NBA
that is breaking in-game models. In recent seasons, both the
average team’s pace and their scoring efficiency have increased. Those increases have pushed total scoring sky high. In the fourth quarter, typically the leading team will move at a
slower pace (trying to run out the clock), while the t

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The algorithm will likely
expect each team to pull their goalie according to a league average
strategy—or worse, according to whatever was league average
five years ago. If you can track which teams are extreme with their goalie
pulling—say pulling very early in most situations and also pulling
reliably down two goals—then you can wait for a goalie-pulling
situation to begin to materialize f

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
In the fourth quarter, typically the leading team will move at a
slower pace (trying to run out the clock), while the trailing team
will start playing faster. In the past, these effects somewhat
evened out, the trailing team saving about the same amount of
time on each possession that the leading team was wasting. But now that overall game pace has gotten so much faster on
average, this has skewed the fourth quarter effect. Nowadays, the
leading teams can slow things down (relative to the first half pace)

CURRENT SUMMARY:
In the fourth quarter, typically the leading team will move at a
slower pace (trying to run out the clock), while the trailing team
will start playing faster. In the past, these effects somewhat
evened out, the trailing team saving about the same amount of
time on each possession that the leading team was wasting.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
205
by a lot more, while the trailing teams can barely go faster since
the entire game is already played at breakneck speed. Therefore the effects tend not to cancel anymore, and the
fourth quarter plays slower on average than the other quarters
when one team is clearly in the lead and the other is clearly
trailing. The overall effect is that if a game has a total of 220, say, more
of those points will be scored in the first half versus the second
than in the past. This effect is mostly priced into first half markets
already (thanks to liquid first half markets using price discovery),
but it’s not priced well into the split between third and fourth
quarter totals (those are your weak markets). It’s also not priced well into some in-game models. When this
situation is beginning t

CURRENT SUMMARY:
205
by a lot more, while the trailing teams can barely go faster since
the entire game is already played at breakneck speed. Therefore the effects tend not to cancel anymore, and the
fourth quarter plays slower on average than the other quarters
when one team is clearly in the lead and the other is clearly
trailing.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Halftime is a special case of in-play betting. On one hand,
halftime is just another timeout—a particularly long one. On the
other hand, many sportsbooks don’t treat it that way at all. They
turn off their in-play betting feed and instead make their own
halftime market—or at least try to follow a market maker’s
halftime market. The good thing about halftime is that it’s long enough for the
price discovery process to work. The way halftimes tend to work
today in sports like pro and college football and basketball is a
few seconds after the game goes to halftime, a market maker

206

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Halftime is a special case of in-play betting. On one hand,
halftime is just another timeout—a particularly long one.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
posts an opening line. There’s a frenzy of betting, and those lines
get knocked into place. About a minute later, most retail sportsbooks follow, opening
the lines from the market maker that have already been subject to
some price discovery. Then, for the rest of the halftime, people are betting the line
at the market maker, and it’s moving in reaction. The frenzied
bettors at halftime will tend to know a lot of the angles I just
listed, and so if the pace has been fast or slow, they’ll bet the game
over or under at halftime. If a key player is in foul trouble, they’ll
bet the other team on the point spread, and the halftime market
will move. There are similar bread-and-butter angles in football that pro
bettors know and jam in on halftimes. Watching these halftime markets move w

CURRENT SUMMARY:
posts an opening line. There’s a frenzy of betting, and those lines
get knocked into place.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Watching these halftime markets move will give you a hint
about how to bet the rest of the game once the second half starts
and the in-game line feed is back in control. It’s not uncommon, at least in 2019, to see a discontinuity
between the lines that closed halftime and the in-play lines that
open the second half. Say a basketball game has been going
incredibly slowly, and during halftime the second half total got
bet down two full points from where it opened. The moment the
second half gets underway, you might see the in-play total pop
those two points back to near where halftime opened. That would
be because the algorithm used to make the in-play lines doesn’t
know anything about the halftime betting action. If you see this, it’s basically a free under bet—and it also
sugges

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Watching these halftime markets move will give you a hint
about how to bet the rest of the game once the second half starts
and the in-game line feed is back in control. It’s not uncommon, at least in 2019, to see a discontinuity
between the lines that closed halftime and the in-play lines that
open the second half.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
This point is so important it deserves its own section. If you are
betting in-game, bet only during timeouts. Never, ever bet when
the game is underway. In the United States, as of 2019, if you’re watching a game on
TV, your feed will be substantially delayed from the live action. Most people underestimate how long this delay is. Typical these
days is about 18 seconds. It can be delayed even longer on some
TV providers or if you are streaming the game over the internet
(on a stream that’s not specifically designed to be low latency). Sportsbooks, for the most part, use lines that are based on
low-latency data feeds. That is, whoever is making the lines knows
what’s happened in the game with only perhaps a one second
delay. Then it’s 17 more seconds of delay until you see it on TV.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
This point is so important it deserves its own section. If you are
betting in-game, bet only during timeouts.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Here’s what happens when you try to make that Spurs
moneyline bet while the game is in progress. First, the line you’re
betting into has been made using the result of the next possession
that you haven’t seen yet baked into it. Then after you click
“Submit” on your in-play bet, the sportsbook puts it in a queue
and literally just sits on it for eight seconds (or however long they
have set the delay). Your experience as the bettor here is that you will see the little
cursor spinning on your web or mobile betting app. You might
otherwise think this is “network latency” or some such, but it’s
not. It’s the sportsbook just waiting you out for eight seconds. They’re waiting to see if they get another line update from
their odds provider during those eight seconds. If they get an
upda

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Here’s what happens when you try to make that Spurs
moneyline bet while the game is in progress. First, the line you’re
betting into has been made using the result of the next possession
that you haven’t seen yet baked into it.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If they get an update, but the line moves substantially, then it
depends on which way it moves what happens next. If the line
moves your way (i.e., if something good for the bet you tried to
make has happened in the game), then the sportsbook will either
decline your bet outright or offer it to you at the new (worse)
odds. If the line moves against you (i.e., if something bad for the bet
happens during those eight seconds), then the sportsbook either
gives you the bet (thank you very much), or sometimes will give
you the bet at the new, better price (and tell you what great folks
they are for giving you a better price). Sportsbooks claim they need these delays to protect from
people sitting at the game and jamming in bets live before they
can get their updated lines. With the fa

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If they get an update, but the line moves substantially, then it
depends on which way it moves what happens next. If the line
moves your way (i.e., if something good for the bet you tried to
make has happened in the game), then the sportsbook will either
decline your bet outright or offer it to you at the new (worse)
odds.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
209
the game to get bets in before the line feed picks up the
information. And furthermore, there’s no rule that says a sportsbook has to
offer bets during a period where they could get beaten simply by
someone attending the game. If you’re the sportsbook, you just
take the lines down during the time you would be vulnerable to
that, and you put it back up during lulls in the action. Seems
simple enough to me. Anyway, these arguments notwithstanding, it’s “standard
practice” these days for operators to tack on four, six, eight
seconds of delay after you make an in-play bet. That’s eight more
seconds that they’re watching the game and waiting to decide if
they want your bet or not. That sound fair to you? Most sportsbooks are not trying to be unfair with this practice. They’re try

CURRENT SUMMARY:
209
the game to get bets in before the line feed picks up the
information. And furthermore, there’s no rule that says a sportsbook has to
offer bets during a period where they could get beaten simply by
someone attending the game.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
They’re trying to offer a good in-play betting experience to their
customers while also protecting themselves from the angle
shooters out there. The problem is, from the bettor’s perspective, it doesn’t really
matter what the sportsbook’s intent is. It’s literally impossible to
win at in-play betting when you’re betting into 6.5% hold lines
(like -115 on each side) while also subjecting yourself to the TV
delay plus the added sportsbook delay. In fact, just the added sportsbook delay is enough. You can’t
beat it, so don’t try. It’s not a fair bet. The solution is to prefer sportsbooks that don’t use a delay at
all. And to bet only during timeouts where both the sportsbook
and you have the same knowledge about what’s happened in the
game. It’s that simple. Bet during timeouts only

CURRENT SUMMARY:
They’re trying to offer a good in-play betting experience to their
customers while also protecting themselves from the angle
shooters out there. The problem is, from the bettor’s perspective, it doesn’t really
matter what the sportsbook’s intent is.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A common theory I hear for in-play betting is that people wait
until they can bet a “better price” than they could pregame. Like
say they want to bet a team that is a -300 favorite pregame. Instead
of laying -300, they wait for the game to start, and they hope it
starts off poorly for the favorite. Maybe the dog scores an early
touchdown or goes on a quick run.
 “I’ll bet Duke on the first price -180 or better I see in game.”
This is not a winning strategy—you’re probably better off just
betting the -300 pregame or betting a point spread or alternate
spread to get the minus number down. The reason it doesn’t win is because the in-game algorithm
prices the markets according to their (usually reasonable) estimate
of how likely the bet is to win. If Duke drops from a 75% breakeven

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A common theory I hear for in-play betting is that people wait
until they can bet a “better price” than they could pregame. Like
say they want to bet a team that is a -300 favorite pregame.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
On top of that, you usually have to play into a bigger hold if
you want to bet in-game. Maybe you could grab Duke pregame at
a 4% hold, but if you want to bet them in game, it’s 6.5%. The way to win at in-game betting is to spot the situations
where the line feed has made an error making the line and bet
those. Don’t bet price targets, middles with your pregame bet, or
bets with any other reasoning besides that you think the line is
wrong. Here’s a little summary chart by sport of places to look for
mistakes in the in-game feeds. This is by no means an exhaustive
list—just a little inspiration. Recall the categories from above.
1. Mistaken game state
2. Failing to account for an important game-specific factor
3. Fundamental modeling error

CURRENT SUMMARY:
On top of that, you usually have to play into a bigger hold if
you want to bet in-game. Maybe you could grab Duke pregame at
a 4% hold, but if you want to bet them in game, it’s 6.5%.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
211
Sport
Angle
Category
NHL
Goalie pulling strategy
2, 3
Power play status
1
More goals in 2nd period
3
Forechecking aggressiveness
2
Team strategies during a blowout
2
MLB
Starter vs bullpen quality
2, 3
Who will pitch next inning?
2
Will the pitcher get pinch hit for?
2
Quality of remaining bench players
2
How long will current pitcher pitch?
2
NCAAB Players in foul trouble
2
Pace of play
2
End of game fouling strategy
2
Injuries
2
Going into timeout…
Was foul a block or charge? A shooting foul? Was basket a 2 or 3?
1
Intentional fouling strategy
2
Pace of play
2
NBA
Key player rotations
2
Too many points in the 4th quarter
3
Substitutions during blowout
2
NCAAF Quarterback injuries
2
Correct down and distance
1
Aggressiveness during b

CURRENT SUMMARY:
211
Sport
Angle
Category
NHL
Goalie pulling strategy
2, 3
Power play status
1
More goals in 2nd period
3
Forechecking aggressiveness
2
Team strategies during a blowout
2
MLB
Starter vs bullpen quality
2, 3
Who will pitch next inning? 2
Will the pitcher get pinch hit for?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A shooting foul? Was basket a 2 or 3?
1
Intentional fouling strategy
2
Pace of play
2
NBA
Key player rotations
2
Too many points in the 4th quarter
3
Substitutions during blowout
2
NCAAF Quarterback injuries
2
Correct down and distance
1
Aggressiveness during blowouts
2
Substitutions during blowouts
2
NFL
Not enough points in 2nd half
3
Aggressiveness on 4th down
2
Aggressiveness during blowouts
2

Taking Advantage of
Sportsbook Marketing

A dirty secret of professional gambling is that a very substantial
proportion of the win comes directly and indirectly from the
casino or betting operator’s marketing budget. Back in the early 2000s, it was very easy to make a six-figure
living playing poker full-time. Because poker was the “hot
new thing” (Buffalo Bi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A shooting foul? Was basket a 2 or 3?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Because poker was the “hot
new thing” (Buffalo Bill probably would have laughed at that
one), and online poker operators were spraying around massive
marketing budgets. Advertisements everywhere encouraged
brand new players to deposit money and promptly lose it to the
pros. Sites offered very generous deposit and reload bonuses, and
professionals developed protocols to maximize these. And sites
also ran affiliate marketing programs—these were designed to
encourage professional marketers to use novel ways to reach new
players. But this spawned “rakeback” where already established
professional players would sign up for new accounts under one
of these affiliates in exchange for being kicked back most of the
money that was intended for the marketer. Poker players were making money

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Because poker was the “hot
new thing” (Buffalo Bill probably would have laughed at that
one), and online poker operators were spraying around massive
marketing budgets. Advertisements everywhere encouraged
brand new players to deposit money and promptly lose it to the
pros.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to work through this query step by step. The user is asking me to extract the most important information from a sports betting excerpt. The excerpt provided is about online poker m


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
213
poker became a whole lot harder very quickly. You had to
actually, like, study the game and stuff. Daily fantasy sports followed a similar arc, though the glory
days flamed out faster. But it was the same thing. The main sites
had massive marketing budgets. (Remember those ads that were
everywhere?) “Professional fantasy players” mostly had
optimized their ability to soak up those sweet capital investment
dollars while the marketing firehose was spraying away. When the marketing budgets dried up, so did a lot of the
“fantasy pros.” To be expected. The beauty of poker and daily fantasy sports is that you play
against other players, so when a clueless person sees an ad and
deposits, you get a direct crack at their money. In sports betting,
unfortunately, you never get direct a

CURRENT SUMMARY:
213
poker became a whole lot harder very quickly. You had to
actually, like, study the game and stuff.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The main thing to look out for are deposit bonuses. The
sportsbook says they will double your first deposit up to some
limit—say $500. Usually these offers come with a substantial
string attached. You have to bet some multiple of the bonus—
maybe 10× or 20×—before you can withdraw the bonus. Let’s say you deposit $500. The sportsbook awards you a $500
bonus. You’re required to bet 20× the bonus, or $10,000 in this
case, before you can withdraw.

214

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The main thing to look out for are deposit bonuses. The
sportsbook says they will double your first deposit up to some
limit—say $500.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this. The user has provided a query where they're asking me to extract the most important information from a sports betting excerpt. They've also included a previous interaction


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you have the ability to find winning sportsbook bets, then
great. Just make your winning bets up to the $10,000 requirement
and either cash out or don’t. If you don’t have that ability yet, however, you can still profit
from the bonus. The key idea here is a bit counterintuitive,
however. You should try to go broke. Yes, you read that right. You want to bet in a way that maximizes the chance you bust
the account. Because if there’s no bonus anymore because you
lost it all, then there’s no more betting requirement. Okay, I know this sounds absurd, but this is the actual
perverse math of these bonus things. Here’s how it works. Let’s say all you know how to do is bet into 4% holds with no
skill. So you expect to lose 4% of your total betting handle. If you
have to bet $10,000, th

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you have the ability to find winning sportsbook bets, then
great. Just make your winning bets up to the $10,000 requirement
and either cash out or don’t.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to make sense of this advice about sports betting and deposit bonuses. The user provided an excerpt that talks about how sportsbooks offer bonuses and the strategy to maximize prof


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Now let’s say you take my advice and go nuts with it. You bet
the entire $1,000 on a +200 underdog. Betting the entire amount
on a single event is the key idea. This is how you maximize the
chance that you zero out the account. Choosing an underdog
gives you a little extra chance to zero, which makes it a bit better. Let’s say this team you bet on at +200 actually has an 31%
chance to win the game. Then 69% of the time when you’re trying
to clear the bonus, you will lose the first game, bust the account,
and have bet only $1,000 and your “theoretical” loss is $70.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Now let’s say you take my advice and go nuts with it. You bet
the entire $1,000 on a +200 underdog.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to figure out this advice about betting on sports and using deposit bonuses. The user provided an excerpt where they talk about betting the entire $1,000 on a +200 underdog to maxi


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
= -70 – 65.1 – 23.06
= -$158.16

By going for broke twice, you’ve cut your theoretical loss to
the sportsbook from $400 to just $158.16. This is because those
times you went broke (0.69 + 0.31 × 0.69=0.904) you lost way
less than the $400 in theoretical hold the sportsbook asked for in
exchange for your $500 bonus. Only 9.6% of the time did you
lose the $400 to the house. I know this still likely seems like voodoo math, so I will break
it down a different way as well. Let’s presume that the sportsbook allows you to bet through
your requirement by negative scalping yourself. Like they let you
bet the Ravens -160 and the Steelers +135 in the same game to
lock in a roughly 4% loss with no risk. In the first case where you didn’t use my crazy strategy, you
end up with about $600

CURRENT SUMMARY:
= -70 – 65.1 – 23.06
= -$158.16

By going for broke twice, you’ve cut your theoretical loss to
the sportsbook from $400 to just $158.16. This is because those
times you went broke (0.69 + 0.31 × 0.69=0.904) you lost way
less than the $400 in theoretical hold the sportsbook asked for in
exchange for your $500 bonus.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to unpack this sports betting strategy. So, the excerpt talks about going broke twice to reduce the theoretical loss to the sportsbook from $400 to about $158.16. That's a signific


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Your original $500, the added
$500, and then the $400 loss from betting both sides of a few
games until you met your requirements. In the second case, 90.4% of the time you end up with $0. That’s how often you lose either the first or second big bet. The
other 9.6% of the time you end up with $8,760—the $9,000 you
have after winning the longshot games minus the $240 loss from
negative scalping to meet your requirement.

216

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Your original $500, the added
$500, and then the $400 loss from betting both sides of a few
games until you met your requirements. In the second case, 90.4% of the time you end up with $0.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting strategy that's being discussed here. The user provided a pretty detailed excerpt, so I need to break it down step by step.

First, they mentio


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Your average bankroll then is 9.6% of $8760 or $840.96. (This
is $1,000 minus the theoretical loss of $158.16 I calculated above,
modulo a couple rounding errors.)
Do it the lame way, you come away with $600. Do it my way,
you come away with $840.96 on average. You make more money
on average with these bonuses if you try to bust your entire
deposit. The key observation is that they give you the $500 up front. You only have to give them the $10,000 of action (which costs
you at least $400 in expected losses) if you don’t lose the money
first. The more often you go broke, the less often you have to
give them their expected losses, and paradoxically the more you
will make on average. Obviously you have to be very willing to lose your initial $500
deposit to make this strategy attra

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Your average bankroll then is 9.6% of $8760 or $840.96. (This
is $1,000 minus the theoretical loss of $158.16 I calculated above,
modulo a couple rounding errors.)
Do it the lame way, you come away with $600.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting strategy from the provided excerpt. It seems a bit complex, but I'll break it down step by step.

First, the user mentions that the average ban


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But if you can afford to burn through some $500 deposits, my
strategy is much better. Not only do you make a lot more money
over the long-term doing it my way, but sportsbooks will like it a
lot better as well. They want you to gamble with the bonus
money. They don’t want to see you grind it away and cash out at
a small profit. If you plow that deposit and bonus straight into a
wild longshot and lose, you’ve got a better chance at getting
another marketing offer from them soon. Whereas if you just grind out your $100 and cash out, you may
end up on the marketing blacklist. Finally, notice that I effectively bet a parlay when I did this—
but I did it by manually parlaying the two bets. Don’t roll this up
into a single parlay ticket, because then you will get credit only for
your o

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But if you can afford to burn through some $500 deposits, my
strategy is much better. Not only do you make a lot more money
over the long-term doing it my way, but sportsbooks will like it a
lot better as well.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting strategy. The excerpt talks about burning through a $500 deposit and how it's better than just grinding it out for a small profit. It mentions


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Sportsbooks are finding new and innovative ways to spray cash
around as they compete for market share. For the most part the
strategy on these is easy. Get in front of the hose and open wide. If they’re boosting the odds on a bet, bet the maximum
allowed on it. If they’re giving you your money back if a moneyline bet loses
that was leading at halftime, bet moneylines there instead of point
spreads. If they’re offering a zero-hold market on a game, decide which
side you like better and bet it. That sort of thing. This is all free money. Get it while the
getting is good, because it won’t last.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Sportsbooks are finding new and innovative ways to spray cash
around as they compete for market share. For the most part the
strategy on these is easy.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to parse this sports betting excerpt. So, the user is talking about how sportsbooks are coming up with new ways to distribute cash to attract bettors. It seems like they're trying


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If a sportsbook offers you free play or betting credit instead of
cash in your account, then you want to bet that free play on a
massive longshot. It’s because the sportsbook keeps the free play
credit after you bet it, and you only keep the winnings. Say you have three options for a free $100 bet, a -200 play, an
+100 play, and a +200 play. Let’s say the -200 bet wins 70% of
the time, the +100 bet wins 50% of the time, and the +200 pay

218

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If a sportsbook offers you free play or betting credit instead of
cash in your account, then you want to bet that free play on a
massive longshot. It’s because the sportsbook keeps the free play
credit after you bet it, and you only keep the winnings.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this problem step by step. I'm trying to understand the sports betting strategy presented in the given excerpt. The user has provided a knowledge card and wants it refined based


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
wins 30% of the time. That is, if this weren’t free play, the -200
would be a good bet, the +100 bet would be break-even, and the
+200 would be a losing bet. If you bet the -200 bet, 70% of the time you’ll end up with $50
for an average of $35
If you bet the +100 bet, 50% of the time you’ll end up with
$100 for an average of $50
If you bet the +200 bet, 30% of the time you’ll end up with
$200 for an average of $60
The “sportsbook keeps the free play credit” part of the free
play means you will always make more if you bet a longshot so
bet the biggest longshot they’ll let you bet with it.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
wins 30% of the time. That is, if this weren’t free play, the -200
would be a good bet, the +100 bet would be break-even, and the
+200 would be a losing bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting strategy from the provided excerpt. It seems a bit complex, but I'll take it step by step.

First, the user mentions that if a sportsbook offers f


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
This is a subtler point and not one you can directly take advantage
of, but be aware of it. In 2019, sports betting in the US is the hot
new thing. Investors can’t wait to throw their money at the
industry. Upstart sportsbook operators are madly trying to get
deals to move into new states. This frothiness is temporary. It
won’t last. While things are still frothy, sportsbook operators are likely to
be more tolerant of winners. When the CEO of the sportsbook
is worried about how to spend the $100 million in capital she just
raised and how to secure entry into eight new states, she’s
probably not going to sweat that you’re crushing her on correlated
football parlays. Eventually, reality will set in. This is a tough business. Investment dollars will dry up. Operators will consolidat

CURRENT SUMMARY:
This is a subtler point and not one you can directly take advantage
of, but be aware of it. In 2019, sports betting in the US is the hot
new thing.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting excerpt. It mentions that 2019 was a big year for sports betting in the US, with investors rushing in and new sportsbook operators trying to ge


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
219
when the mood shifts to cost-cutting, winning bettors will be
prime targets. Not much you can do about this. It’s the natural course of
things. Just be aware of it, realize the good times may be here
now, but they won’t last, and get what you can while you can. Chopping The Hold

One of the most powerful ways I know to think about whether a
sports bet is winning or not is to think about the hold. Sportsbooks win against their customers because they tack a hold
onto their markets. If I can chop that hold down to zero and then
turn it negative, then I’m the one who will win. I could beat Mongolian netball markets with a negative hold. You start with the 4% hold that the sportsbook has tacked on
the market. Then you use every trick you know to try to chop
away at that hold. If

CURRENT SUMMARY:
219
when the mood shifts to cost-cutting, winning bettors will be
prime targets. Not much you can do about this.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to understand this sports betting excerpt. It talks about something called "chopping the hold," which I think has to do with sportsbooks taking a percentage of bets, right? The use


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Remember the
story about the guy on the Internet claiming to hit 60% of bets. Never mind that it’s a bullshit claim, you wouldn’t want to hit
60% anyway. Because to hit 60% you’d have to intentionally pass
on 58% and 56% and 54% bets. Why the heck would you want
to pass on bets that win? There are a lot more 54% bets floating
around out there than there are 60% bets. The main reason to pass on a “marginal” bet is when if you’re
wrong about it, you end up eating most of the hold. An example
would be if you found an obscure prop bet that is offered at only
one sportsbook. They have an 8% hold on the market. You have
a model, and your model says that you have a 0.5% edge on one
side of the prop. Don’t bet that. Yeah, the prop likely isn’t priced very well. But
in the best case when

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Remember the
story about the guy on the Internet claiming to hit 60% of bets. Never mind that it’s a bullshit claim, you wouldn’t want to hit
60% anyway.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting excerpt. It talks about a guy claiming to hit 60% of his bets, which the user deems as a "bullshit claim." I guess that means hitting 60% isn't


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
221
you have a 0.5% edge. But if you’ve made a substantial mistake
pricing the bet, then you could be betting essentially at random,
which means eating the 8% hold. Those are the marginal bets to
pass on. The more market information you have, though, and the surer
you are that you’re at worst betting into a small hold, the more
you should err on the side of betting your ideas. The first step is to open accounts at lots of sportsbooks and
compare market pricing between them. You’re trying to create
synthetic markets with low hold. If you compare only identical
markets (like a 6.5 full game point spread only versus another 6.5
full game point spread), that’s like trying to buy a vacuum cleaner
but limiting your shopping search only to brick and mortar retail
stores. If you expand

CURRENT SUMMARY:
221
you have a 0.5% edge. But if you’ve made a substantial mistake
pricing the bet, then you could be betting essentially at random,
which means eating the 8% hold.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting excerpt. It starts at line 221 and talks about having a 0.5% edge on a bet, but if there's a substantial mistake in pricing, you could end up esse


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you compare only identical
markets (like a 6.5 full game point spread only versus another 6.5
full game point spread), that’s like trying to buy a vacuum cleaner
but limiting your shopping search only to brick and mortar retail
stores. If you expand your comparison shopping to related markets
(like comparing a 6.5 full game point spread to a 6-point spread
or a moneyline), that’s like adding in some major internet retailers
to your search for the best priced vacuum. If you expand further your comparison shopping to derivative
markets (like comparing a full game point spread to a first half or
first quarter point spread or moneyline), that’s like trawling
Craigslist and hitting the garage sale circuit bright and early
Sunday morning trying to find bargains. The more you expand

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you compare only identical
markets (like a 6.5 full game point spread only versus another 6.5
full game point spread), that’s like trying to buy a vacuum cleaner
but limiting your shopping search only to brick and mortar retail
stores. If you expand your comparison shopping to related markets
(like comparing a 6.5 full game point spread to a 6-point spread
or a moneyline), that’s like add

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm looking at this user's query where they're asking to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The excerpt they provided talks about comparing markets in sports betting, u


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The more you expand your shopping search, the better deals
you will find—though at the cost of time and effort. If you want to be able to comparison shop properly, you’ll
need to be able to convert prices between different point spreads
and across derivatives. If -6.5 is -110, what is the equivalent price
for -6? This sort of conversion is easy to do. You need some league
data and then you need to build a push-rate chart like I described

222

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The more you expand your shopping search, the better deals
you will find—though at the cost of time and effort. If you want to be able to comparison shop properly, you’ll
need to be able to convert prices between different point spreads
and across derivatives.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting excerpt. It starts at line 222 and talks about expanding your comparison shopping to find better deals, but it also mentions that this comes at


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
earlier in the book. And with the same dataset you can build full
game to first half and first quarter conversion charts as well. You don’t have to do this work, but if you don’t, you’re going
to be stuck shopping the brick and mortar stores, and you’ll find
many fewer good bets. So you’re trying to chop that 4% hold down to nothing. For
most bets you find, most of the chopping will happen in this
step—finding the synthetic low-hold market. Say you get a 4%
hold market down to 1% by creating a market between a first half
total at a retail sportsbook and a full game total at a market maker
sportsbook. The retail sportsbook has a higher price on the total,
so if you’re betting under, you’re betting it there. If you’re betting
over, it will be at the market maker. How do you get rid

CURRENT SUMMARY:
earlier in the book. And with the same dataset you can build full
game to first half and first quarter conversion charts as well.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this sports betting excerpt. It starts by talking about chopping the hold, which refers to reducing the sportsbook's profit margin on bets. The user mentions that by


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Say it’s
moderately windy. Perhaps it’s not windy enough that all the
sports-talk folks are making a big deal about it. It’s just a little
windy. But you know that high winds push scoring down, so lowmedium winds should also push scoring down, but by a smaller
amount. Is that worth 1%? It’s worth something though—and if you notice
something like that in a game, it should make you more inclined
to bet with the angle and less inclined to bet against it. Maybe you think it’s worth about 0.25%. So now we’re
down to 0.75% hold if we want to bet under. Was there any price movement at a market maker? Say the
total for this game recently moved lower at the market maker
you’re looking at. This is a steam situation—the price moved, but
the retail sportsbook hasn’t adjusted or moved their f

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Say it’s
moderately windy. Perhaps it’s not windy enough that all the
sports-talk folks are making a big deal about it.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting excerpt. It starts by saying, "Say it’s moderately windy. Perhaps it’s not windy enough that all the sports-talk folks are making a big deal ab


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
223
Sports betting is a multiplayer game. If other folks who are
moving markets would likely be on your side of a bet, that’s a
good sign. Maybe it’s worth 0.5% here. Whoever bet under didn’t keep
betting it to move the market even lower, but there’s a chance
they would have bet it if they could have gotten your (better)
price. Okay, you’ve got the hold down to 0.25%. Still not zero, but
close. Maybe you sit on the bet for a bit to see if you can find one
more arrow pointing in your direction to tip the scales. Say the market maker moves down a couple more ticks on
their total. Okay, go bet. Say some injury news breaks—one of the better offensive
players who was listed questionable is announced out. Okay, go
bet. Say the weather report changes and a little more wind is now
pred

CURRENT SUMMARY:
223
Sports betting is a multiplayer game. If other folks who are
moving markets would likely be on your side of a bet, that’s a
good sign.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting excerpt. It starts at line 223 and talks about sports betting being a multiplayer game. The user mentions that if other people who are moving m


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Okay, go bet. Say you can find what is clearly a good bet on a first half side
at the same retail book that has the total you almost like—and
you know that the side will be mildly correlated with the under. Bet the parlay. Or, on the flipside, the market maker moves up a couple ticks
on the total. Some injury news breaks the other way—that good offensive
player who had been listed as questionable is confirmed to play. Everything is in constant flux. Lines are moving. Synthetic
markets with low hold are appearing and disappearing. News is
coming in. Weather reports are changing. You’re looking for
moments in time when the sports betting universe is cutting you
a break. When it’s saying, “Sure, go ahead and bet either side, and

224

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Okay, go bet. Say you can find what is clearly a good bet on a first half side
at the same retail book that has the total you almost like—and
you know that the side will be mildly correlated with the under.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting excerpt. It starts at line 224 and talks about making bets in a dynamic environment where lines are constantly moving. The user mentions that i


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
we aren’t going to charge you any hold this time.” When it’s
saying, “Sure I see that sharp price at the market maker that’s been
hammered into place with millions of dollars of action, but I’m
going to offer you a closely related bet that I’ve priced myself and
it’s 5% off the market maker’s price. Happy Birthday.”
I like this model of trying to chop the hold down to below
zero on your bets because it keeps you out of trouble. You get
the hold down to 0.25% and then you get a little overzealous on
one of your angles and bet when you probably shouldn’t have. Okay, big deal—you’re betting into a 0.25% hold market. You
just can’t get it very wrong when you do that. You only get in trouble when you try to be a hero into full
hold markets. This is the fundamental process for finding

CURRENT SUMMARY:
we aren’t going to charge you any hold this time.” When it’s
saying, “Sure I see that sharp price at the market maker that’s been
hammered into place with millions of dollars of action, but I’m
going to offer you a closely related bet that I’ve priced myself and
it’s 5% off the market maker’s price. Happy Birthday.”
I like this model of trying to chop the hold down to below
zero on your bets

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting excerpt. It starts by saying that the sportsbook isn’t going to charge the customer any hold this time. Then it mentions that when the sportsbo


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Data modeling. It’s very hard to build a model that crushes
major markets if you try to take them head-on. It’s much easier
to build a model that’s useful for tipping the scales when you get
close—like in the 0.25% hold example from above. Say you had
a simple model using widely available data to project totals for
this sport, and your model liked the under by a little bit. That by
itself could be worth another maybe 0.5% to 1% on the hold,
tipping it into negative territory and giving you an easy bet. If you decide you want to take sports betting seriously, you’ll
have to start working with data and building some models. Subjective handicapping. We didn’t cover it yet in the book,
but it’s a real thing that can help you win. What did the
quarterback look like last game? Does tha

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Data modeling. It’s very hard to build a model that crushes
major markets if you try to take them head-on.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting excerpt. It starts by talking about data modeling and mentions that it's very hard to build a model that crushes major markets if you try to ta


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
225
seem like they’re mailing in the rest of the season, or have they
just had a series of tough results? On its own, subjective handicapping isn’t enough to win
anymore. But in-depth knowledge of a sport moves the needle. Putting in hours watching games on replay matters. Insights you
get from doing this can be worth maybe 1 or 2% on the hold if
your opinion is strong and reliable enough. So, again, you don’t want to blast away into 4% hold on your
pet theory about the backup quarterback who is starting the next
game. But if you can get the hold down to 1% by line shopping,
comparing related markets and derivatives, by using steam or
other weak angles, then your opinion about the quarterback might
then be enough to tip the balance.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
225
seem like they’re mailing in the rest of the season, or have they
just had a series of tough results? On its own, subjective handicapping isn’t enough to win
anymore.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting excerpt. It starts at line 225 and talks about how it seems like the rest of the season is going to be a breeze for a team, or maybe they've ju


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The more pieces you can bring together, the more likely you are
to have found a good bet. All the ideas in this book work together. Any one idea on its own might not be enough to unearth a good
bet, but several ideas working together can do it. Think in terms of break-even percentages. How often does
your bet have to win to be profitable? (That’s the basic breakeven percentage calculation from the beginning of the book.)
How often does the market think your bet will win? That’s a
different question that requires you to draw inferences from
prices you see at market maker books, recent line movement at
those books, conversions between related and derivative markets,
and more. If the market thinks your bet will win in the ballpark of the
break-even percentage you’re being offered, is

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The more pieces you can bring together, the more likely you are
to have found a good bet. All the ideas in this book work together.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to figure out how to approach this task. The user has provided a series of interactions where they're extracting information from a sports betting document excerpt. Each time, they


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
might know just a little bit better than the market how often this
bet will win? Do you have a little extra information? Are you
analyzing widely available information just a little better? Are you
betting into a weak sportsbook or weak market where your
information advantage will be more reliable? Or are you thinking
of betting into a stronger book or market where you may not
always come out on the right side of the information equation? If the market thinks you’re close, and you think you have an
extra edge to put you over the top, then go ahead and bet. The
worst you can be is wrong. How Do I Know If I’m
Winning? This is the question at the heart of it all. Am I winning? Am I
beating the system? Is what I’m doing good enough? It can be fiendishly hard to figure out the answer.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
might know just a little bit better than the market how often this
bet will win? Do you have a little extra information?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting excerpt. It starts by talking about having just a little bit of extra information that makes you know how often a bet will win, compared to the


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you’re winning money, it’s tempting to assume you’re the
smartest person in the world, and the good times will keep on
rolling. If you’re losing money, it can be intensely frustrating,
especially if you’re convinced what you’re doing should be
winning. Throughout the book I’ve talked about winning and losing like
it’s some foregone conclusion. Do this and it will win. Do that
and it will lose. The reality is a lot messier than that. Whenever I say, “win,” I
mean, “win on average,” or really, “will win eventually if you keep
on doing it over and over again and don’t give up and nothing
important changes in the interim.”
I didn’t really talk about things like risk, variance, and bankroll
in depth because it’s a huge topic worthy of its own book. But the
main idea is that in th

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you’re winning money, it’s tempting to assume you’re the
smartest person in the world, and the good times will keep on
rolling. If you’re losing money, it can be intensely frustrating,
especially if you’re convinced what you’re doing should be
winning.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting excerpt. It starts by saying that if you're winning money, it's tempting to think you're the smartest person in the world, and the good times will


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Thus, the question. How do I know if I’m winning? First, you have to start betting. There’s no such thing as
figuring out if you’re going to win without getting your beak wet. Sports betting is a multiplayer game, and if you’re not betting,
you’re not playing. Tracking make-believe bets is not the same as
betting. That’s step one. Get in there and bet. Start with low stakes if
you like. But if you’re betting real money then you’re playing the
game. Step two is to keep records. Record what you bet, how much
you bet, the result of the bet. Step three is to do it for a while until you get a nice record of
settled bets. Are you winning or not? At some point this record
begins to speak for itself. If you’re ahead after, say, a thousand
bets, that’s a good sign. But even then, record is

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Thus, the question. How do I know if I’m winning?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I need to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The user has provided a specific excerpt and the current summary, and they want it improved in a certain format.


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
No doubt you will have improved your process over
those thousand bets. But also, the sportsbooks you bet into will
likely also have gotten smarter during that time as well. So here’s my best answer to the original question. Sports betting is a multiplayer game. You know you’re winning
at sports betting the same way you know you’re winning at poker. You have to evaluate your opponents. You’ve got to be able to
spot the sucker. Each bet you make has a break-even percentage. To be
profitable, your bet has to have a higher winning percentage than
that number. The market, by definition, thinks it doesn’t. Why are
you right and your opponents wrong? Who’s the sucker? In my experience, every winning bet fits into one of two
categories. Either you’re winning because you have more
informat

CURRENT SUMMARY:
No doubt you will have improved your process over
those thousand bets. But also, the sportsbooks you bet into will
likely also have gotten smarter during that time as well.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I need to help refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt from a sports betting document. The user has been going through several iterations, each time trying to extract the mos


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
229
can’t point to which one of these applies to each bet, it’s probably
not a winning bet. Do you have more information than your opponents? This is
information that is not included in the line you are betting into
and can range from market to weather to injury information. Chasing steam is an example of having more market
information. You know the line moved at the market makers. You
notice that Sportsbook ABC hasn’t moved yet. You have more
information about the line than the employee at Sportsbook ABC
has. That’s your advantage. In this case it’s obvious you have more information—you can
see the line at the market maker, you can see the line at
Sportsbook ABC, and you can see that the line moved at the
market maker and that five other sportsbooks followed the move
and ABC j

CURRENT SUMMARY:
229
can’t point to which one of these applies to each bet, it’s probably
not a winning bet. Do you have more information than your opponents?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I need to help refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt from a sports betting document. The user has been going through several iterations, each time trying to extract the most i


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
It can be trickier to tell if you have weather or injury
information that others don’t, but keep in mind you don’t need
to have the entire market scooped. You just need one sucker. Say you’re watching an NBA game, and you see a player
writhing on the ground after a hard foul. The game goes to
commercial. You rewind your DVR, and it appears to you that
the player simply had the wind knocked out of him and perhaps
is playing it up a little for the refs. Sportsbooks come out with their in-play lines. Most
sportsbooks have something around Warriors -7 -104. But one
sportsbook has Warriors -7 -120 and Rockets +7 +100. Your
experience tells you the line should be Golden State -6.5, but you
suspect you’re seeing higher numbers across the board due to the
indelible image of the Rockets’

CURRENT SUMMARY:
It can be trickier to tell if you have weather or injury
information that others don’t, but keep in mind you don’t need
to have the entire market scooped. You just need one sucker.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, let's see. I need to help refine a knowledge card based on the latest excerpt from a sports betting document. The user has been going through several iterations, each time trying to extract the


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
It’s probably a good idea to bet the Rockets +7 +100,
and the reason you’re betting is because you think you have more
information than that one sportsbook. You watched the DVR
replay. They likely didn’t. The other category of bets is when you have the same
information your opponents have, but you use it better. Better
analysis, better insight, better ideas. That’s really all an angle is,
after all. You’re looking at information that’s freely available to
everyone. Travel schedules. Or things like tipoff or
coinflip strategy. And you’re putting the pieces together better
than other people are. Using statistical models to bet also fits in
this category. If your perceived edge comes from using information better,
make sure you can specifically point out how. What are you doing
be

CURRENT SUMMARY:
It’s probably a good idea to bet the Rockets +7 +100,
and the reason you’re betting is because you think you have more
information than that one sportsbook. You watched the DVR
replay.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I need to help refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt from a sports betting document. The user has been going through several iterations, each time trying to extract the most i


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Have
you sorted the data in a unique way? If your big idea is, “I can download a bunch of data and run a
regression on it better than everyone else,” well, you’re probably
fooling yourself. Instead, if your idea is, “I know more about how
travel schedules affect hockey teams than other people do,” you
might be right. The “better than other people do” part of it is, of course, the
key part. You need to figure out what you’re good at, and then
you need to get an idea for where the other players are in the same
space. Say you’ve done some research, and you now know that a
difficult travel schedule has a bigger effect on the travelling team
during one specific period of a hockey game. Do the people who
open the single-period derivative markets seem to know about
this? You can look

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Have
you sorted the data in a unique way? If your big idea is, “I can download a bunch of data and run a
regression on it better than everyone else,” well, you’re probably
fooling yourself.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card based on a sports betting document. The user has been giving me excerpts and wants me to extract the most important information each time, then f


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
231
line movement (or lack thereof), you may be able to get a good
idea of what people do and don’t seem to know. Maybe they seem
to understand in general that travel matters, but they don’t have
one of the nuances of it figured out. So they underbet the travel
angle in some games and overbet it in others. It’s like poker.5 If you sit at the table long enough and watch
the actions of your opponents, you can sometimes reverse
engineer their thought processes. You can make predictions
about how they will react to future situations. You can get a sense
for what they know and what they don’t. You know you have an
edge at poker when you can clearly explain the mistakes your
opponents are making, and you can formulate a counterstrategy
to exploit those mistakes. Sports betting is the

CURRENT SUMMARY:
231
line movement (or lack thereof), you may be able to get a good
idea of what people do and don’t seem to know. Maybe they seem
to understand in general that travel matters, but they don’t have
one of the nuances of it figured out.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, I need to help the user by refining their knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt and a previous summary. My task is to extract the most important infor


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Every one of your
relevant opponents is a smart, informed person with experience
playing the game. They don’t know everything, but they also
aren’t dumb. Don’t pretend you are playing against the “Joes” of
the world. “Oh, the public can’t get enough of the huge favorites
and there’s value everywhere on dogs!”
No that’s not how it works. There are plenty of Joes out there,
but they aren’t playing your game. They’re betting into retail
sportsbooks, and the retail sportsbook business model is designed
to profit from their mistakes without sharing any of those profits
with you. No easy money for you. Your opponents are sportsbook employees and other smart
bettors. They read the sports analytics websites. They look at data.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Every one of your
relevant opponents is a smart, informed person with experience
playing the game. They don’t know everything, but they also
aren’t dumb.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The user has provided several excerpts, and I need to extract the most important information from each. Let me sta


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
They do research. They follow Twitter for breaking news. It’s not
easy to beat them at their game. The good news is that the more sports betting expands, the
more attack surface there will be. There will be more props and
derivatives and in-play bets on offer, and these bets will appear
on betting menus before anyone at the sportsbooks have really
nailed the math on them. Bigger menus mean more ways for a
sportsbook to overlook something—perhaps allowing parlays on
bets that are correlated. Bigger menus also mean more ways to
turn angles or other insights into profitable bets. Sports betting expansion will also bring bigger marketing
budgets. Deposit bonuses and odds boosts and loss rebates and
other promotions can be a great source of winnings on top of
what you can win just by

CURRENT SUMMARY:
They do research. They follow Twitter for breaking news.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The user has provided several excerpts, and I need to extract the most important information from each. Let me sta


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
One day it may be impossible to win. All-knowing AI
algorithms may make precise line moves on all incoming
information and then may perfectly adjust all bet menu pricing on
the fly as new information comes in. Maybe one day. But that’s not today. The sports betting of today is a big frothy
mess. There are some things the market does very well. Price
discovery on major markets is a powerful force, and it’s hard to
take the biggest markets head-on and win. But there are also many weaknesses lurking just under the
surface. If you can create information advantages for yourself,
and you can identify those advantages with a clear head and turn
them into bets, then, if just for a little while, you’ll be able to open
a new account at a brand new sportsbook and say, “I found the
sucker.”

CURRENT SUMMARY:
One day it may be impossible to win. All-knowing AI
algorithms may make precise line moves on all incoming
information and then may perfectly adjust all bet menu pricing on
the fly as new information comes in.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The user has provided several excerpts, and I need to extract the most important information from each. Let me sta


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you can create information advantages for yourself,
and you can identify those advantages with a clear head and turn
them into bets, then, if just for a little while, you’ll be able to open
a new account at a brand new sportsbook and say, “I found the
sucker.”

Acknowledgments
A big thank you to Andrej Semnic (semnitz on 99designs.com)
for a fantastic cover design. Thank you to the folks who took time out of their days to read,
edit, and give feedback on the book like Rufus Peabody, Brian
Wyman, Chris Fargis, Adam Zerner, Jake Williams, Rex Beyers,
Harlan Redlick, Dan Singer, Steve Fenic,  Steven McLoughlin,
Matthew Trenhaile, Joe Brennan Jr., Matthew Flynn,  Jack
Andrews,  Jamie Poster,  Matt Brown, Brett Collson, Dave
Clark, Eric Rodawig, Leo Meyers, and Robert Walker. Fina

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you can create information advantages for yourself,
and you can identify those advantages with a clear head and turn
them into bets, then, if just for a little while, you’ll be able to open
a new account at a brand new sportsbook and say, “I found the
sucker.”

Acknowledgments
A big thank you to Andrej Semnic (semnitz on 99designs.com)
for a fantastic cover design. Thank you to the folks w

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The user has provided several excerpts, and I need to extract the most important information from each. Let me sta


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Finally, thank you to Diana Davidow and Elaine Vigneault
who are indispensable every day and without whom this book and
likely many other things would not be possible. Appendix A
This chart converts various odds formats to break-even
percentages. Decimal
Odds
Fractional
Odds
American
Odds
Break-even
Percentage
100
99/1
+9900
1%
50
49/1
+4900
2%
33.33
97/3
+3233
3%
25
24/1
+2400
4%
20
19/1
+1900
5%
16.67
47/3
+1567
6%
14.29
13.3/1
+1329
7%
12.5
23/2
+1150
8%
11.11
10.1/1
+1011
9%
10
9/1
+900
10%
9.09
8.1/1
+809
11%
8.33
22/3
+733
12%
7.69
6.7/1
+669
13%
7.14
6.1/1
+614
14%
6.67
17/3
+567
15%
6.25
21/4
+525
16%
5.88
4.9/1
+488
17%
5.56
4.6/1
+456
18%
5.26
4.3/1
+426
19%
5
4/1
+400
20%

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Finally, thank you to Diana Davidow and Elaine Vigneault
who are indispensable every day and without whom this book and
likely many other things would not be possible. Appendix A
This chart converts various odds formats to break-even
percentages.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The user has provided several excerpts, and I need to extract the most important information from each. Let me start


Question: Hello

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The user has provided several excerpts, and I need to extract the most important information from each. Let me sta


Question: User: hi

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The user has provided several excerpts, and I need to extract the most important information from each. Let me sta


Question: User: hi

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The user has provided several excerpts, and I need to extract the most important information from each. Let me sta


Question:
System: [{'type': 'text', 'text': "You are Claude Code, Anthropic's official CLI for Claude."}, {'type': 'text', 'text': "Analyze if this message indicates a new conversation topic. If it does, extract a 2-3 word title that captures the new topic. Format your response as a JSON object with two fields: 'isNewTopic' (boolean) and 'title' (string, or null if isNewTopic is false). Only include these fields, no other text. ONLY generate the JSON object, no other text (eg. no markdown)."}]

[{'type': 'text', 'text': 'implement this feature'}]

Alright, I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided several excerpts, and I need to extract the most important information from each. Let me st