Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
sportsbooks often spend a whole lot on TV, online, and other
advertising. They also often run promotions, most of which boil
down to giving away money to anyone willing to be their
customer even for a brief period of time. But again, anyone can spend on marketing. If a new
sportsbook that’s overfat on venture capital investment decides
they’re going to give $1,000 to anyone willing to become a new
customer—well, it’s going to be expensive to retain your existing
customers in the face of a competing deal like that. What tends to
happen is there is often a marketing arms race, with several retail
sportsbooks attempting to one-up each other to build the value
of their brands and poach customers from competitors. (These
marketing arms races can be quite lucrative to a smart customer

CURRENT SUMMARY:
sportsbooks often spend a whole lot on TV, online, and other
advertising. They also often run promotions, most of which boil
down to giving away money to anyone willing to be their
customer even for a brief period of time.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this. The user provided a query where they want to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They included an excerpt, a current summary, and an improved version of


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If a new
sportsbook that’s overfat on venture capital investment decides
they’re going to give $1,000 to anyone willing to become a new
customer—well, it’s going to be expensive to retain your existing
customers in the face of a competing deal like that. What tends to
happen is there is often a marketing arms race, with several retail
sportsbooks attempting to one-up each other to build the value
of their brands and poach customers from competitors. (These
marketing arms races can be quite lucrative to a smart customer—
more on this later.)
One relatively less risky, less expensive way to try to
differentiate your retail sportsbook from the competitors is to
expand your betting menu. “Okay, so our lines aren’t better, our
hold isn’t less, our software is kinda average, and we w

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If a new
sportsbook that’s overfat on venture capital investment decides
they’re going to give $1,000 to anyone willing to become a new
customer—well, it’s going to be expensive to retain your existing
customers in the face of a competing deal like that. What tends to
happen is there is often a marketing arms race, with several retail
sportsbooks attempting to one-up each other to build the

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Want to
bet pregame? You can bet on a zillion derivative and prop
markets. You can even make up your own bet and pitch it to us,
and we’ll give you a line you can bet. You can bet in-play. And
not just on the boring old side and total. You can bet derivatives
and props in game also. We’ve got this quasi-fantasy football
betting game you can play too.”
This expanded menu idea offers two tantalizing benefits to
folks that run these sportsbooks. First, as I mentioned, it offers
the promise of “differentiation,” where customers might choose
their sportsbook simply to bet on interesting things they can’t find
at a competitor. Second, the theory is that this will increase each
customer’s betting volume. Instead of making just one or two

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Want to
bet pregame? You can bet on a zillion derivative and prop
markets.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
131
bets on any given game, a customer might make four or five or
ten or sit there eyes glazed throughout the entire game clicking
ball or strike bets in on every pitch of an MLB game. (Can you
tell I’m skeptical of that one?)
The theoretical profit a sportsbook makes from their
customers is equal to their edge times their volume. Their edge
will vary based on how “sharp” the customer is, but it ranges from
about the full amount of the hold (or a little more for some
particularly hopeless customers) to a negative number (that’s
you—hopefully) for the sportsbook. Messing with the hold can have serious unintended
consequences for a sportsbook, but if they can somehow
encourage their customers to bet a higher volume, they will
theoretically win more per customer. So more volume i

CURRENT SUMMARY:
131
bets on any given game, a customer might make four or five or
ten or sit there eyes glazed throughout the entire game clicking
ball or strike bets in on every pitch of an MLB game. (Can you
tell I’m skeptical of that one?)
The theoretical profit a sportsbook makes from their
customers is equal to their edge times their volume.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A goal
of modern retail sportsbooks is always to offer as many bets as
possible to all their customers. There’s a huge, largely unrealized risk with this drive to offer
more, more, more different bets to customers. Attack surface. To offer a bet to a customer, the sportsbook must price the
bet. This is no problem at all for the major markets. To offer NFL
point spread bets to their customers on Sunday morning, a retail
book merely has to use the price from a market maker book, and
they can be sure (for the reasons I explained in the preceding
chapters) that these prices are robust and extremely difficult for
any of their customers to beat. But what if a retail book wants to offer a bet that no market
maker offers a market on? Say Notre Dame is a seven-point
favorite, but the spo

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A goal
of modern retail sportsbooks is always to offer as many bets as
possible to all their customers. There’s a huge, largely unrealized risk with this drive to offer
more, more, more different bets to customers.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
want you to be able to bet that both the Notre Dame quarterback
will throw more than 2.5 touchdowns and that Notre Dame will
win by 21 or more? What if they want you to be able to bet 150 different things
just like this? What if they want you to be able to bet half of these in-game
as well? What if they want you to be able to bet all 150 of these on any
of 20 high-profile games on a college football Saturday? For some of these extra markets that other sportsbooks offer,
they can anchor to the lines at other books. But part of the whole
point of this exercise is to differentiate—to have something no
one else has. How do they line those? They can either contract with a third-party company to price
the markets, or they can try to do it in-house. Either way, there are hundreds or thou

CURRENT SUMMARY:
want you to be able to bet that both the Notre Dame quarterback
will throw more than 2.5 touchdowns and that Notre Dame will
win by 21 or more? What if they want you to be able to bet 150 different things
just like this?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
In most cases, when it
comes down to it, all these lines are made one of two ways. An
“expert” basically guesses at a reasonable price. Or maybe they
do a little back of the envelope math using the market spread and
total as input variables. So that’s how they make the lines for all these bets in the first
place. Then they have an equally hard problem every time the
market moves. Say Notre Dame moves from -7 to -9.5 at a market
maker, and the total moves from 63.5 to 65.5. How much should
the -21 price change? How about those quarterback touchdown
bets? Clearly if Notre Dame is a bigger favorite and the total also
goes up, it implies Notre Dame scores more points. Scoring more
points implies scoring more touchdowns. It also implies that they
cover 21 more often. But by how much

CURRENT SUMMARY:
In most cases, when it
comes down to it, all these lines are made one of two ways. An
“expert” basically guesses at a reasonable price.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
133
That’s a hard problem, and for most sportsbooks, an unsolved
one. This problem is magnified when the book wants to offer
multiway markets. Say they want to let you bet on the exact
number of touchdowns the Notre Dame quarterback will throw. You have seven different choices from exactly 0 touchdowns to
6+ touchdowns, and each one has a price. When the underlying
point spread moves from -7 to -9.5, that entire distribution of
touchdowns also should move. But how much does exactly 5 touchdowns move? Exactly 1
touchdown? Now say the line moves from -7 to -9.5 and then a customer
wants to put a max bet on 6+ touchdowns. Do you move the
line? What do you do to the other lines like 0 or 1 or

CURRENT SUMMARY:
133
That’s a hard problem, and for most sportsbooks, an unsolved
one. This problem is magnified when the book wants to offer
multiway markets.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Sportsbooks put bigger holds on these multiway markets to
protect themselves to some extent from the inherent difficulty in
getting this entire distribution of possibilities priced correctly. But
that hold is only somewhat protective. This is just a fundamentally
difficult problem, and modern sportsbooks simply don’t invest in
getting this kind of math correct in all the hundreds of markets
they want to offer. This is your main advantage as a bettor. These prices are all
logically related to one another. Obviously if Notre Dame goes
from -7 to -9.5 and the total goes from 63.5 to 65.5, that implies
more touchdowns. How many more you can estimate with a little
back of the envelope math. You find a sportsbook that doesn’t
accurately reprice every one of these derivative markets (h

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Sportsbooks put bigger holds on these multiway markets to
protect themselves to some extent from the inherent difficulty in
getting this entire distribution of possibilities priced correctly. But
that hold is only somewhat protective.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You understand odds. You know how sportsbooks make
their lines—the good, the bad, and the ugly. You know some
important market concepts like zero hold synthetic markets,
market agreement and resistance, market strength and weakness,
and pricing related markets. Now you’re saying, “Okay, it’s time
to win!”
I’ll do my best. I have to walk a fine line. I want to be as specific as I can,
because vague advice sucks. But if I’m too specific, I’ll kill every
opportunity I write about. I think I split that difference pretty well
in this part. I think the advice is specific enough to easily inspire
you to find your own opportunities. But it’s just vague enough
that your inspiration will probably be a little different from
another reader’s inspiration. That’s the sweet spot. Well, that’s

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You understand odds. You know how sportsbooks make
their lines—the good, the bad, and the ugly.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Should You Try To Win
60% Or 54%? Before I get to some ways to try to beat this game, let’s think
about what your goal should be. Should you try to win 60% of
your 50-50 bets? Seems like a stupid question. Who doesn’t want to win more often? But which percentage wins you more overall money? When I was in grade school, I dreamed of making money
betting sports. I’d sit in class and calculate how many bets it would
take me to get rich depending on the chances to win each bet.
“Okay, if I win 55% of my bets and make 100 bets of $100 each
(all at -110 of course), I’ll win $550. But wait, what if I win 2 out
of every 3 bets? How hard could that be anyway? I’ll be rich in no
time!”
I had a lot to learn. But it wasn’t just that winning 67% of bets
was unobtainable. An even more importan

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Should You Try To Win
60% Or 54%? Before I get to some ways to try to beat this game, let’s think
about what your goal should be.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The short answer is that if you can identify bets that win 67%,
you can also identify bets that win 60% and 55% and 53%. And
there will be many, many more of the lower edge ones. Who
wants to pass on a 55% bet? No one trying to make money. Do you want to bet five 67% bets, or five 67% bets plus fifty
55% bets? Including the 55% bets clearly makes you more money,
but it also lowers your overall winning percentage.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The short answer is that if you can identify bets that win 67%,
you can also identify bets that win 60% and 55% and 53%. And
there will be many, many more of the lower edge ones.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
139
So what percentage should you go for? Make every bet that
you think will show a profit. Every bet that you’re fairly confident
has an edge. Whatever your winning percentage is at that point,
it’s the right one. As for the guy on the internet claiming he wins
60% of his bets, ask him why he doesn’t bet the 55% winners. Derivatives

Earlier I discussed what makes two betting markets related, and I
went through an example of how to price one market versus the
other. The same logic from that chapter can be used to price any
point spread versus any other spread (or a moneyline, which is
the same as a point spread bet with a line of zero). Pricing -1
versus the moneyline is simple, because you only care about how
often the game will tie or land on 1. But you could use the same

CURRENT SUMMARY:
139
So what percentage should you go for? Make every bet that
you think will show a profit.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you wanted to do -28, for example, you’d try to estimate five
percentages. The chance the dog wins the game, the chance the
game ends in a tie, the chance the favorite wins by less than 28,
the chance the favorite wins by exactly 28, and the chance the
favorite wins by more than 28. If you can come up with good
estimates for those five percentage chances, you can estimate how
those two bets should be priced relative to one another. Nowadays, books want to offer more than just three markets
on each game. They want you to be able to bet on just the first
half. Or just the second half. Or just the first quarter. Or just the
first inning. Or they want you to be able to bet on alternative spreads and
totals. Say you want to bet a favorite, but you don’t want to lay a
big minus on

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you wanted to do -28, for example, you’d try to estimate five
percentages. The chance the dog wins the game, the chance the
game ends in a tie, the chance the favorite wins by less than 28,
the chance the favorite wins by exactly 28, and the chance the
favorite wins by more than 28.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
141
bet -7.5 -110. You want to lay even more points than that—
say -13.5—but get a plus money payoff on your bet. That’s an
alternative spread. The same logic applies to totals. It should be obvious that all of these are related markets. If a
team is a favorite for the game, they’ll usually also be a favorite in
the first half, first quarter, or the first inning as well. If you wanted
to bet which team will score first, the game favorite will usually
be a favorite there as well. If -7.5 is the current market spread on a game set by a market
maker, then the price for -10.5 can reasonably be estimated using
the method I described previously. All these markets that sportsbooks offer that are
clearly related to the big three markets are called derivatives. The
idea being that the pri

CURRENT SUMMARY:
141
bet -7.5 -110. You want to lay even more points than that—
say -13.5—but get a plus money payoff on your bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The
idea being that the pricing for these markets can be derived from
the pricing for the main markets. The key words in that last paragraph are “can be.” How books
price these derivatives varies, but you can be fairly certain that
nobody at your favorite retail sportsbook is making the numbers
for every game, every day with a database and a push rate chart. In fairness, pricing these derivative markets is a very difficult
job even for the market maker books. The market makers work
by taking bets and moving lines. But what happens if they take a
bet on one market, but they don’t take an equivalent bet on a
clearly related market? Say they have an NFL spread at -5.5 and a moneyline at 68.5%
(-217 in American odds). Then they take a few limit bets on the
favorite at -5.5, but no b

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The
idea being that the pricing for these markets can be derived from
the pricing for the main markets. The key words in that last paragraph are “can be.” How books
price these derivatives varies, but you can be fairly certain that
nobody at your favorite retail sportsbook is making the numbers
for every game, every day with a database and a push rate chart.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
percentage by moving to say -5.5 -120 or by moving the spread
to -6. But what about the moneyline? Should they leave it where it is because it took no action? Should they move it an equivalent amount as the spread even
though it took no action? Should they move it some in-between amount? It’s a tricky question to answer. On one hand, the relationship
between the two markets is obvious. On the other hand, there
may be a good reason the sharp bettors took the point spread bets
but not the moneyline bets. Remember, our method for determining the relationship
between these two bets. It was very simple. I just looked at games
over the last ten years and figured out how many landed on the
key numbers. But what if that method isn’t good enough? What if there was
a recent rule change that

CURRENT SUMMARY:
percentage by moving to say -5.5 -120 or by moving the spread
to -6. But what about the moneyline?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Or what if there was some other reason specific
to this game (as opposed to just looking at an average of all NFL
games) for the difference? There’s no clear correct answer here—and this is one of many,
many reasons that it’s actually very hard to be a good sportsbook.
🏈🏈
Derivatives like first inning bets, first period bets, first quarter
bets, and the like are often weak because their prices are not tied
tightly to the major markets. The openers are often not particularly strong, made using
years-old charts or rules of thumb. Sports change year-over-year,
sometimes by a lot, and often these changes affect what
percentage of the entire game’s scoring happens in any particular

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Or what if there was some other reason specific
to this game (as opposed to just looking at an average of all NFL
games) for the difference? There’s no clear correct answer here—and this is one of many,
many reasons that it’s actually very hard to be a good sportsbook.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
143
quarter or period. But these changes aren’t reflected in how the
derivative’s opening lines are set. Maybe you know a basketball team intentionally loses the
opening tipoff every game for some strategic reason. (The
Minnesota Lynx in the WNBA have used this strategy.)
Some NBA teams win tipoffs more often than others—some
much more often. Winning the tipoff makes a team a bigger
favorite to win a first quarter bet, and who wins that first tipoff
also determines the team that starts with the ball in each
subsequent quarter. Or in a football game, you know one team is likely to elect to
receive the kickoff if they win the coinflip, but the other is likely
to defer (thus ensuring that one team is almost certain to start
with the ball). If you want to attack derivatives, it pay

CURRENT SUMMARY:
143
quarter or period. But these changes aren’t reflected in how the
derivative’s opening lines are set.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you want to attack derivatives, it pays to build a simple
model to price them. If you want to bet NFL first quarters, for
instance, you should look at games with a similar game point
spread and total and then look at the first quarter results for those
games when evaluating bets. Keeping in mind, of course, that the
game changes over time, and that, for example, a total of 48
points today might mean relatively more second and fourth
quarter scoring and less first quarter scoring than a total of 48
points from ten years ago. Be aware some derivatives—particularly first half markets in
major sports like NFL and NBA—are priced almost as sharply as
the major markets. Market makers take action and move the line,
and retail books follow. If a first half line looks “off” to you, it’

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you want to attack derivatives, it pays to build a simple
model to price them. If you want to bet NFL first quarters, for
instance, you should look at games with a similar game point
spread and total and then look at the first quarter results for those
games when evaluating bets.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
normally prices their derivatives well, but you find one that seems
out of line, it might be there for a good reason. A Derivative Example

Sportsbooks have started to offer a first inning bet on MLB
games. “Will there be a score in the first inning?” is the most
common bet offered. The price might look like Yes
+140/No -160. Say it’s Tuesday, and there are 15 games this evening. It’s
11am, and the book is putting this market up for every game. Here’s one way they might do it. They may have a chart that maps
the game total into an opening price for this derivative. If the total
is 7.5 -105 to the over, the opening price is this. If the total is

CURRENT SUMMARY:
normally prices their derivatives well, but you find one that seems
out of line, it might be there for a good reason. A Derivative Example

Sportsbooks have started to offer a first inning bet on MLB
games.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
They look at the total in each game at 11am, throw up an
opener, and they’re in business. Fast-forward to 6pm. Lineups have come out for most of the
games. The weather report has shifted in one or two cities. Some
totals have moved. You look at the Rays-Yankees game. The Rays are using an
“opener”—a starting pitcher who is scheduled to pitch only one
or two innings. This opener pitcher isn’t particularly good—he’d
be near the back of the Rays bullpen if they used him normally. The Rays plan to put in one of their better “starters” in the
second or third inning and then let him pitch for five innings or
so.

146

CURRENT SUMMARY:
They look at the total in each game at 11am, throw up an
opener, and they’re in business. Fast-forward to 6pm.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Because everyone betting the main market at the market
maker knows the good starter is likely to pitch most of the early
innings, the total isn’t too high—sitting around 8.5 -110. The opener (who is pitching the first inning) is a right-hander,
and the Yankees stacked the top of their lineup with powerhitting lefties to try to take advantage of the platoon advantage
and the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, the book hasn’t moved the line on the “Will there
be a score in the first inning?” derivative bet since they posted it
at 11am. Clearly the method used to set this line is no good in this case. The chart they used to make the line was probably made six years
ago, and they haven’t touched it since. Six years ago, no one had
ever heard of using an “opener,”

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Because everyone betting the main market at the market
maker knows the good starter is likely to pitch most of the early
innings, the total isn’t too high—sitting around 8.5 -110. The opener (who is pitching the first inning) is a right-hander,
and the Yankees stacked the top of their lineup with powerhitting lefties to try to take advantage of the platoon advantage
and the short porch in righ

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Now most of the teams bat their best hitter second, and
almost always their best four hitters 1-2-3-4. There are two effects going on. In general, because the game
has changed, but the sportsbook hasn’t kept up, their entire chart
is wrong—teams will be scoring in the first inning now more
often than before because the best hitters almost always come up
in the first inning these days. Second, this particular Rays-Yankees game is an outlier—the
chart assumes the good “starter” will pitch the first inning, but
the Rays are pitching a worse pitcher for the first inning only. The
chart assumes that the platoon advantage for the hitters in the
first inning will be typical for most games, but in this game the
Yankees have stacked the top of their lineup with righty-mashing
lefty hitte

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Now most of the teams bat their best hitter second, and
almost always their best four hitters 1-2-3-4. There are two effects going on.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
147
first inning is wrong for this game. Everything points in the same
direction—more chance of a run than what they are estimating. Logic says that betting on the yes is likely to be a good bet. But before you pull the trigger, consider two factors. First, the hold. Let’s say for a moment you were offered this
bet in a no-hold market—maybe a bet with your friend. Will there
be a run in the first inning, Yes +150/No -150. Betting yes is a slam dunk in that case. Several arrows point in
the same direction and given that you would break-even if you
chose which side to bet by flipping a coin, it’s clearly more likely
than not that you would have a good bet going with the arrows.3
As you add hold to the market, however, it becomes less
certain yes is a good bet. There’s now a chance t

CURRENT SUMMARY:
147
first inning is wrong for this game. Everything points in the same
direction—more chance of a run than what they are estimating.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
There’s now a chance that neither side
is a good bet. And I haven’t made any attempt to quantify how
much more often the Yankees in Yankee Stadium with the
platoon advantage against a weak opener on the Rays will score
in a game with a total of 8.5 -110. Maybe it’s only a couple percent more often? You can do some quick baseball math to come up with an
estimate, but absent the math, you really don’t know. In the example, the market was priced Yes +140/No -160 so
the hold is only about 3%. That gives the book roughly 1.5%
leeway each side to get their price correct. If it’s a reasonable guess
that the factors you are accounting for move the needle by at least

CURRENT SUMMARY:
There’s now a chance that neither side
is a good bet. And I haven’t made any attempt to quantify how
much more often the Yankees in Yankee Stadium with the
platoon advantage against a weak opener on the Rays will score
in a game with a total of 8.5 -110.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
took all the above into consideration and then intentionally chose a breakeven percentage that makes yes bad knowing that you’ll choose it anyway. That’s a little next level for this book—though to some extent sportsbooks
do shade lines intentionally in some markets if they expect a deluge of
action on one side or another. A first inning market on just-another-MLBgame however is unlikely to be that sort of situation.

148

CURRENT SUMMARY:
took all the above into consideration and then intentionally chose a breakeven percentage that makes yes bad knowing that you’ll choose it anyway. That’s a little next level for this book—though to some extent sportsbooks
do shade lines intentionally in some markets if they expect a deluge of
action on one side or another.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
1.5% (preferably 2% at least), then you can probably feel pretty
safe betting yes into this hold and your bet is probably good. Books know that they are vulnerable in these sorts of
derivative markets, however, so one tactic they often use to
protect themselves is to jack up the hold. They might try to price
the market Yes +130/No -170, which is closer to a 6% hold. There’s no way I would bet this into a 6% hold without doing
some real math to try to figure out my estimate for what the right
price should be. It’s just way too easy for me to have gotten the
logic of the bet completely correct, but for the effects I identified
not to matter enough to overcome that 6% hold. Second, make sure you know where the line you’re looking at
came from. Here’s the best-case scenario for you. L

CURRENT SUMMARY:
1.5% (preferably 2% at least), then you can probably feel pretty
safe betting yes into this hold and your bet is probably good. Books know that they are vulnerable in these sorts of
derivative markets, however, so one tactic they often use to
protect themselves is to jack up the hold.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Let’s say the sportsbook
you’re looking at has been expanding their menu options rapidly
as they try to compete with more established outfits. They just
hired a guy named Spencer out of college, and he’s in charge of
putting up the derivative markets for MLB. They gave him a few
charts that one of the traders had saved on a hard drive from an
old job at another sportsbook. Spencer is a football guy and actually has never watched a
baseball game in his life. He’s never heard of opener pitchers,
platoon advantages, short porches, or anything else. On top of that, this sportsbook has a “true price” approach to
trading their markets. That is, they don’t move their lines when
you bet them. They aren’t afraid of a little risk, and they definitely
don’t want to give back any of their a

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Let’s say the sportsbook
you’re looking at has been expanding their menu options rapidly
as they try to compete with more established outfits. They just
hired a guy named Spencer out of college, and he’s in charge of
putting up the derivative markets for MLB.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
149
You know it won’t move. You know the guy making the line really
can’t do anything to make it sharper. You know the hold is low
enough that when multiple factors point in one direction, the
factors will move the needle enough to make the bet good. Here’s how that best-case scenario can break down. The book can update their method for making the lines with
new data, or contract out to a third-party specializing in pricing
derivative and prop markets. The book can start moving the line on action. That won’t
make the opening line any better, but it will give the market that
“picked through” effect. If you get there first, great. If you don’t,
you miss out. If you aren’t sure if you got there first or not—even
worse, because now you don’t know if you are still betting into a
good

CURRENT SUMMARY:
149
You know it won’t move. You know the guy making the line really
can’t do anything to make it sharper.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Spencer can be smart and motivated. Just because he didn’t
know anything about baseball on April 1st two months after
being hired doesn’t mean he still won’t know anything by August. Maybe he’s a sharp dude and throws himself into the job. He
watches you beating his market and tries to reverse engineer your
strategy. He starts reading Fangraphs and learns about the factors
in baseball that affect scoring. Halfway through the season he’s
two steps ahead of you and baiting you to bet bad numbers
against him. How do you tell what’s going on? Is it freshly hired Spencer
putting up garbage every day? Or is it out-for-blood Spencer
laughing at you as you keep betting your same tired angles into
his market? You have to pay attention. You have to watch the market day
after day, every da

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Spencer can be smart and motivated. Just because he didn’t
know anything about baseball on April 1st two months after
being hired doesn’t mean he still won’t know anything by August.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
clear pattern for how they make the lines that stays consistent day
after day? What is that pattern? Do they ever alter the pattern? If so, can you figure out what
triggered it? What happens when you bet into the market? Do they move
the lines? Can you tell if other bettors are in the same
market by looking at which lines move and by how much from
the openers? If there are other bettors playing this market, are
they betting the same games you would bet, or different ones? Is
there some logic to what they’re betting, or are they just betting
the Dodgers every game? (Or is there logic to betting the Dodgers
every game?)
Okay, so let’s distill all this into a process for finding good bets
in derivatives.
1. Find a derivative market offered by a retail
sportsbook. These can be mar

CURRENT SUMMARY:
clear pattern for how they make the lines that stays consistent day
after day? What is that pattern?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
These can be markets like quarter markets, period
markets in hockey, first inning markets in baseball. Or
alternative spread and total markets like a -14.5 market on a
game where the main market 50-50 point spread is at -5.
2. Watch the market for a while. Does the book offer the
market on all games or just a few high-profile games? What time
of day does the book post the derivative markets? (It’s common
for books to post the main markets for a game and then wait a
while before posting derivative markets.) How does the book
price the openers for the derivative? Ideally, you want the
market posted for every game, at a consistent time every day,
and either with the same opener every time or with a very simple
system for determining the opener (e.g., varies predictably with
the m

CURRENT SUMMARY:
These can be markets like quarter markets, period
markets in hockey, first inning markets in baseball. Or
alternative spread and total markets like a -14.5 market on a
game where the main market 50-50 point spread is at -5.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
151
“differentiator” market that’s only offered by one or a few
books? Fewer books is better, because then the book can’t use
prices at other books to anchor theirs. Does the book move the
price if you bet it? If not, great. If so, watch the market over
time to see how often it moves. This will give you an idea of
how many other bettors are “picking through” this market to
find the good prices. Obviously, the less pick-through, the
better.
4. Look at the hold. You will find many more good bets in
a market with a 4% hold than one with a 6% hold. A higher
hold cuts substantially into the profitability of all your bets, and
it also dramatically reduces your margin for error. “I think this
is good,” might be good enough if you’re betting into a soft 4%
market. But at 6% or higher

CURRENT SUMMARY:
151
“differentiator” market that’s only offered by one or a few
books? Fewer books is better, because then the book can’t use
prices at other books to anchor theirs.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Identify outlier situations. These are the situations
where whatever method the book uses to prices the market will
fail. In the above example, several factors acted together to
increase first inning scoring versus the average game. Other
possible outlier factors can include weather (particularly an
atypical weather pattern affecting one part of the game more
than others), travel, coaching tendencies, and more.
6. Track your bets. Do more research. Once you think
you’ve found something good, go ahead and bet it. If you’re
wrong, you’re wrong, and you’ll lose. Unless you completely
screwed up, however, even your ideas that don’t work won’t
lose the full hold—you might lose 0.5% or 1% instead of the
4% or 6% hold because your bets will be consistently in the right
direction. Jus

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Identify outlier situations. These are the situations
where whatever method the book uses to prices the market will
fail.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy to l


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
This process is designed to find low-hanging fruit in
overlooked markets. You’re looking for stuff the book puts up as
an afterthought. Stuff the book uses to “fill out its menu.” Stuff
the book puts up only so they can brag about having more
markets on every game than the next guy. Stuff the book spends
two minutes pricing and then moves on. If people on ESPN are talking about these bets or this market,
or if you can tell it gets a lot of action because the lines move all
day long, it’s not what you’re looking for. Those markets can be
beaten also, but the more attention a market gets, the harder it is
to beat. (Though the bigger the reward if you do figure out how
to beat it.)
If you live in a state like New Jersey with a dozen competing
sportsbooks, and you apply this proces

CURRENT SUMMARY:
This process is designed to find low-hanging fruit in
overlooked markets. You’re looking for stuff the book puts up as
an afterthought.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Props

Props create a massive attack surface for a sportsbook. Instead of
keeping just two or three markets on a game that they can easily
peg to a market maker, they’re keeping two dozen (or more)
markets on the game, and they can’t easily peg these lines to a
broader market. Props are great because the openers are often (mis)priced
based on a market line and total when the prop is made—and
then they’re never updated. If there’s an injury or a change in
weather or some other relevant information that hits about a
game, the main markets will move, but often the props will just
stay put. Props also create opportunities for sportsbooks to make major
mistakes. They can copy the pricing on a prop from another
sportsbook, for instance, but accidentally word it differently. Somethi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Props

Props create a massive attack surface for a sportsbook. Instead of
keeping just two or three markets on a game that they can easily
peg to a market maker, they’re keeping two dozen (or more)
markets on the game, and they can’t easily peg these lines to a
broader market.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Obviously, these are two very different bets, but a sloppy
sportsbook could copy a price but transpose the words and give
bettors a major opportunity. Furthermore, with player props, information and breaking
news that barely registers in the main market prices can drastically
affect the value of a prop—and likely no one at the sportsbook
will notice until they start getting bet. For example, say two high-strikeout power hitters who were
expected to be in the lineup at 11am end up on the bench and
replaced with two high-contact, low-strikeout hitters. And you
can still bet under on the opposing starting pitcher’s strikeout
prop at the same price from the morning. Or a cornerback who was expected to shadow a specific
receiver is suddenly announced out with an injury from Thursday

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Obviously, these are two very different bets, but a sloppy
sportsbook could copy a price but transpose the words and give
bettors a major opportunity. Furthermore, with player props, information and breaking
news that barely registers in the main market prices can drastically
affect the value of a prop—and likely no one at the sportsbook
will notice until they start getting bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this query. The user is asking me to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The excerpt discusses issues with sportsbooks, specifica


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
And you can still bet that receiver’s yard and reception
totals at the early week price. Given enough props on the menu, darn near every news item
can have a material effect on at least one of them. That’s just way
too much for any sportsbook to keep up with. If you can stay on
top of the news and learn to apply logic to the related bets, you
can easily find edges. Having said all that, while player props have been very
beatable up until now, I expect them to get a lot of attention in
the coming years. Already there are fantasy sports analysts who
have pivoted to analyzing player prop bets. It’s likely that the
number of people betting these seriously will explode. Explosion
means more availability and higher limits—but it also means more
market efficiency. Market maker books wi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
And you can still bet that receiver’s yard and reception
totals at the early week price. Given enough props on the menu, darn near every news item
can have a material effect on at least one of them.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
155
So go to town on them now, but be quick to recognize if those
player prop markets start to get stronger over time. Game props are team- or game-level bets. Will there be a
defensive touchdown in the game? Which team will be first to
score 30 points? Will there be a goal in the first 10 minutes of the
game? These props, like player props, are likely to proliferate in
coming years. But I don’t think they will generate quite the
increased attention from bettors that player props will, and as
such, there’s a good chance they remain juicy targets for a while. The great thing about these bets is that you can often deduce
logically when these bets are good. Typically, the pricing of game props is (or at least should be)
directly related to the main spread and total of the game. Some

CURRENT SUMMARY:
155
So go to town on them now, but be quick to recognize if those
player prop markets start to get stronger over time. Game props are team- or game-level bets.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Some
props vary more with the spread and total than others. A common game prop that doesn’t vary much is this NFL
prop

“Will the final score of the game be odd or even?”

At first thought, you might assume this bet should be roughly
50-50. But it’s not—it’s slightly skewed toward odd being the
favorite. The main reason is that a tie is an even score, and ties
are uncommon.
“Ah. If the lack of tie games represents the biggest reason odd
is a favorite over even, then odd should be a bigger favorite in
games with low spreads and a smaller favorite in games with large
spreads.”
This is correct, and it’s a perfect example of the type of logic
you can use to beat these sorts of props. Unfortunately, in this case, this effect doesn’t move the needle
much. Games just don’t end tie

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Some
props vary more with the spread and total than others. A common game prop that doesn’t vary much is this NFL
prop

“Will the final score of the game be odd or even?”

At first thought, you might assume this bet should be roughly
50-50.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this. So, the user provided a query where they're extracting information from a sports betting document. The excerpt talks about player props and how their prices are influenced


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
those, a good portion end with one team scoring a touchdown
for 6 points and an even final score. This proposition varies from about 54% games ending odd at
a PK spread to about 52% games ending odd if the home team is
a 17-point favorite. This 2% swing is less than the hold on the
bet. I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve found a
good pregame odd/even NFL bet. One popular NFL game prop that does vary enough to create
good bets is

“Will one team score three consecutive times at any point in
the game?”

If you aren’t familiar with this prop, it’s a widely cited example
of a bet that’s counterintuitive to casual bettors. It sounds like
scoring three times in a row is hard—but the reality is that when
you have all game long to do it once, it ends up being a good
fa

CURRENT SUMMARY:
those, a good portion end with one team scoring a touchdown
for 6 points and an even final score. This proposition varies from about 54% games ending odd at
a PK spread to about 52% games ending odd if the home team is
a 17-point favorite.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's try to figure this out. The user provided a query where they want to extract the most important information from a sports betting document's excerpt. The previous interactions involved


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But exactly how much a favorite depends on both the point
spread and the total of the game. Logic suggests that this prop is
more likely to win when one team will have trouble scoring. And
that’s exactly the effect—in games where one team is a big
favorite, this happens more often. And of those games with a
nice-sized favorite, it happens more often when the game has a
lower total. Basically, when one team has a particularly low expected team
total is when the fair value on this prop really starts to move. The chart below shows what I make the break-even
percentages on this prop using my NFL model. The columns
represent different possible point spreads—it doesn’t matter
whether the home or road team is the favorite. The rows
represent possible totals.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But exactly how much a favorite depends on both the point
spread and the total of the game. Logic suggests that this prop is
more likely to win when one team will have trouble scoring.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
157

0
3
7
10
14
17
37
62%
62%
65%
68%
73%
*
41
62%
62%
65%
68%
73%
76%
45
62%
62%
65%
68%
73%
76%
49
62%
62%
65%
68%
72%
75%
53
62%
62%
65%
68%
72%
75%
57
62%
62%
65%
67%
71%
73%
61
61%
62%
65%
67%
70%
72%

You can see that the fair value on this prop can range from as
little as 61% when the teams are evenly matched to about 76%
when you’ve got an excellent team likely to beat up on a team
with a hopeless offense. Because the fair value of the yes can
move potentially up to about 15%, but the hold on this prop is
usually only 4 or 5%, it’s very possible to find good bets. I’ve
personally bet this prop many times. Other NFL game and team props with fair values that vary
enough with the spread and total to find good bets are

CURRENT SUMMARY:
157

0
3
7
10
14
17
37
62%
62%
65%
68%
73%
*
41
62%
62%
65%
68%
73%
76%
45
62%
62%
65%
68%
73%
76%
49
62%
62%
65%
68%
72%
75%
53
62%
62%
65%
68%
72%
75%
57
62%
62%
65%
67%
71%
73%
61
61%
62%
65%
67%
70%
72%

You can see that the fair value on this prop can range from as
little as 61% when the teams are evenly matched to about 76%
when y

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
I’ve
personally bet this prop many times. Other NFL game and team props with fair values that vary
enough with the spread and total to find good bets are

“Total field goals”
“Total touchdowns”
“Will the team that scores first win the game?”
“Will the game ever be tied after 0-0?”
“Will the first score be a TD or FG/SAF?”
“Will there be a score in the last two minutes of the first half?”

And so on. Each of these props has a fair price that varies
considerably with the pregame point spread and total. And for
the most part, sportsbooks don’t do a great job of capturing this
relationship when they open these prop markets.

158

CURRENT SUMMARY:
I’ve
personally bet this prop many times. Other NFL game and team props with fair values that vary
enough with the spread and total to find good bets are

“Total field goals”
“Total touchdowns”
“Will the team that scores first win the game?”
“Will the game ever be tied after 0-0?”
“Will the first score be a TD or FG/SAF?”
“Will there be a score in the last two minutes of the first half?”

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Props are a great way to get started finding winning sports
bets. They’re often weakly priced and not tied to a larger market. If you want a process for attacking these bets, try this one.
1. Find a prop where it seems the fair value price should
change considerably in games with different spreads and totals.
2. Watch the prop for different games as it’s priced over
time and try to reverse engineer the pricing.
3. If the prop is offered at multiple books, compare this
pricing at several different places.
4. Watch it to see if others are betting the prop and
determine how the book moves the pricing when you bet the
prop.
5. Once you understand what is in the price and what isn’t,
bet the prop whenever the price doesn’t seem to account
correctly for the spread and total. Taking

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Props are a great way to get started finding winning sports
bets. They’re often weakly priced and not tied to a larger market.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Taking Advantage of
Parlays

Okay. Last time I mentioned parlays I was explaining how they
aren’t really sucker bets and how the main thing they do is not
increase the hold, but instead blow up betting volume. Now I’ll
talk about how you can use parlays to your advantage. Betting more money is a double-edged sword. If you don’t
have an edge on the bets you choose, then betting more money
causes you to lose more money. “See, sucker bet,” says the guy
with all the helpful advice. If you do have an edge on the bets you choose, then betting
more causes you to win more money. Remarkably, many people
seem confused about this aspect of parlays. Possibly because so
few bettors win. For the bettors who do win though, parlays can
be a devastating weapon. There are three main use cases

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Taking Advantage of
Parlays

Okay. Last time I mentioned parlays I was explaining how they
aren’t really sucker bets and how the main thing they do is not
increase the hold, but instead blow up betting volume.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
say, “I let you bet on more stuff than that other sportsbook!” in
their advertising. You’re the only one of their customers crazy
enough to actually bet it. The sportsbook grabs the opening lines each day from Asia
and never gives them a second look because no one bets them. You’ve figured out that when the weather is hot, it’s easy to
hit home runs, and when the weather is cold, it’s hard to hit them. You just look at the weather report each day in Korea, and when
it’s hot you bet over and cold you bet under. To protect themselves from getting beaten on these totals that
they aren’t paying attention to, the sportsbook limits you to $50
bets. But they also let you bet them as three-leg parlays again with a
$50 limit. Say there are four games, and you want to bet over in all four
g

CURRENT SUMMARY:
say, “I let you bet on more stuff than that other sportsbook!” in
their advertising. You’re the only one of their customers crazy
enough to actually bet it.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Without parlays, you’d get $200 down, the $50 limit on
each game. But say they let you bet the four games as a round robin by
threes, which just means you’re betting separate three game
parlays for every combination of three games of the four. That
gives you four, three-game parlays: 1-2-3, 1-2-4, 1-3-4, and 2-3-4. You bet $50 on each parlay, for a total of $200 again. Same, same, right? No, of course not. Because hidden within
the parlays is a lot of extra betting volume. A three-leg parlay of
50-50 bets will nearly triple your actual betting volume. By
parlaying the games instead of straight-betting them, you end up
getting nearly $600 of volume, or nearly $150 down per game—
into a market with an ostensible straight betting limit of $50. Now imagine instead of four Korean baseba

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Without parlays, you’d get $200 down, the $50 limit on
each game. But say they let you bet the four games as a round robin by
threes, which just means you’re betting separate three game
parlays for every combination of three games of the four.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you start betting seriously, you’ll find that managing your
sportsbook account balances can turn into a major headache. The
big problem is that money sitting in a sportsbook account isn’t as
good as money outside the account. There’s only one thing you
can do with money in a sportsbook account—bet it. And only at
that one sportsbook. Say you had a really good run at one book, and a bad run at
another. Happens all the time. Combine the two and you’re doing
fine, you’re just imbalanced. Then you see some great bets you want to make. Only
problem is that they’re at the book you lost all your money at.
“No problem,” you say, “I’ll just withdraw from the first book
and deposit at the second.”
Logistically there’s usually a lot more to this than just that. The
withdrawal can take

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you start betting seriously, you’ll find that managing your
sportsbook account balances can turn into a major headache. The
big problem is that money sitting in a sportsbook account isn’t as
good as money outside the account.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
This is where a lot of the black art of parlays lives. A key
assumption of the parlay payout structure is that each leg of the
parlay is independent. That is, if leg one wins, that result has zero
influence on whether leg two wins as well. Any time you make two bets on the same event, that
assumption of independence to one extent or another is violated. No sportsbook will allow you to do this but think about what
would happen if you bet on the Raptors to win the first half, and
you parlayed that with the Raptors to win the game. For the sake
of simplicity, let’s say both lines are +100, so the parlay pays
+300. Assume you bet $10 on this parlay. At the end of the first half,
say the Raptors are behind. You’ve lost the bet. Oh well, it
happens. Now say the Raptors are leading at t

CURRENT SUMMARY:
This is where a lot of the black art of parlays lives. A key
assumption of the parlay payout structure is that each leg of the
parlay is independent.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
163
favorite to win. Your $20 bet (at twice your original stake, no less)
is now a fantastic bet. That’s how correlated parlays work. You’re betting on two
related events, and if one leg wins, the other leg is more likely to
win as well. But you’re still getting paid by the same parlay math
that assumes one doesn’t affect the other. All sportsbooks know about this phenomenon. All
sportsbooks have some rules about what bets on the same event
you can and can’t parlay. But some sportsbooks have looser rules
than others. At one end of the spectrum are the paranoid books. They
prohibit all parlays where two of the legs involve the same event. So no Bills and over parlay on Sunday morning. At the other end of the spectrum are the fast and loose books. Some of these let you get away with

CURRENT SUMMARY:
163
favorite to win. Your $20 bet (at twice your original stake, no less)
is now a fantastic bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A well-known example of an extremely correlated parlay
that some books have let people bet is the big favorite college
football parlay. Every season the big college football teams schedule at least
one game with a much weaker opponent. In these games, the lines
might look something like

Clemson -42, total 45

Obviously taken together, these lines predict a game where
Clemson scores around six touchdowns and the other team may
or may not score. But really both bets are a bet on the same thing—how many
touchdowns does Clemson score? If they score seven, then both
Clemson and over are likely to win. If they score five, then both
are likely to lose.

164

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A well-known example of an extremely correlated parlay
that some books have let people bet is the big favorite college
football parlay. Every season the big college football teams schedule at least
one game with a much weaker opponent.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You bet two parlays. Clemson and the over, and then the dog
and the under. Let’s say you bet $100 on each, and you get +260
on your two-leg parlay. If either bet wins, you’ll finish with $360,
so you’re effectively betting $200 to win $160 or -125 on the
combined bets. The break-even percentage for a -125 bet is 55.6%. But your
combined bets will win far more often than that due to how
closely correlated the side and total are in a game like this one. Another well-known—but much weaker—correlation comes
up in baseball. If the home team wins a baseball game, they usually
don’t play the bottom of the ninth, so you only get 17 half innings. If the road team wins, though, then they play all 18 half innings. Fewer half innings mean less scoring. Therefore, the road team winning is corre

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You bet two parlays. Clemson and the over, and then the dog
and the under.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to work through this step by step. The user is asking me to refine a knowledge card about sports betting, specifically focusing on parlays. They've provided an excerpt and the curr


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Therefore, the road team winning is correlated with the over,
while the home team winning is correlated with the under. This correlation exists for nearly every baseball game, but it’s
not strong enough to bet it blindly and expect to win. (If someone
lets you bet that college football one, bet it until you burn it out. That correlation is so strong you don’t have to know a thing about
the game or teams to win on it.)
But let’s say for some reason you wanted to bet the road team
and the over anyway, on their own merit. Parlaying them would
give you an even better bet, because you could also benefit from
the correlation. Good correlation situations that sportsbooks will accept are
worth a lot, so I’m not just going to list every correlation I know
about here. All that would do is

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Therefore, the road team winning is correlated with the over,
while the home team winning is correlated with the under. This correlation exists for nearly every baseball game, but it’s
not strong enough to bet it blindly and expect to win.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Earlier in the book I mentioned something called a parlay card. Parlay cards are kind of a hybrid promotional tool/profit center
for sportsbooks. Sportsbooks produce parlay cards for several
sports, but they’re easiest to describe using football as an example. Say it’s Week 3 of the college football season. On Sunday, the
market maker books posted the early lines on the games for this
coming week, and the crazy button mashers hammered on those
lines for a bit. On Monday, a retail sportsbook copied all those
hashed out lines and printed them on a card—yes with actual ink
on cardstock. Maybe they’re printed overnight Monday and ready
to put out for customers Tuesday morning in the sportsbook. At any point from Tuesday until Saturday morning, you can
bet one of these parlay cards. In

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Earlier in the book I mentioned something called a parlay card. Parlay cards are kind of a hybrid promotional tool/profit center
for sportsbooks.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
In most ways it works like a normal
parlay. You pick as few or as many teams as you like on the point
spread (usually there’s a minimum of at least maybe three picks
and a maximum of perhaps 15 or so). If all your point spread bets
win, you get paid at the odds listed on the back of the card. There are two massive drawbacks to parlay cards versus
betting off the board parlays. The first is that all parlay cards short
pay the parlay odds—often by a lot. The second is that there are
often extra rules that tilt in the house’s favor. A common one is
“ties lose.” In a normal parlay, if you bet a team -3 and they win

166

CURRENT SUMMARY:
In most ways it works like a normal
parlay. You pick as few or as many teams as you like on the point
spread (usually there’s a minimum of at least maybe three picks
and a maximum of perhaps 15 or so).

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's break this down. The user is asking for an improved knowledge card based on a sports betting excerpt. They want it in a specific format with a summary and key points. The user has provi


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
by exactly 3, that game pushes, and the parlay bet is simply treated
as whatever it would be if you hadn’t bet that game. On a ties-lose parlay card, your whole bet loses when that
happens. Listing all the little rules wrinkles that sportsbooks put
on parlay cards is beyond the scope of this book—just realize that
there’s usually at least one gotcha rule on a parlay card that you
won’t like.
“Okay, great,” you say, “bad odds and bad rules. Sounds
awesome.” Yes, if you bet these things more or less randomly like
most people do, they’re brutal. Ahh, but I haven’t gotten to the saving grace. The cards are
printed on Tuesday, but you can bet them all the way through
Saturday morning. That means you can bet into Tuesday’s lines
on Saturday morning with Saturday’s market information.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
by exactly 3, that game pushes, and the parlay bet is simply treated
as whatever it would be if you hadn’t bet that game. On a ties-lose parlay card, your whole bet loses when that
happens.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You just look at the games with
lines that have moved the most between Tuesday and Saturday. Say you find Army +9.5 on a parlay card (listed as +10 on the
card, but joke’s on you, ties lose), and they’re +4 at current market
maker prices. You do some related market push rate analysis to
figure out what a fair break-even percentage for +9.5 is if +4 is
fair at 50%. You compare this to the break-even percentage given
then odds listed on the parlay card. (Which will unfortunately be
more than 52.4% because the card short pays you.)
If you think +9.5 wins more often than the break-even
percentage of the card, then Army +9.5 goes on your parlay card. You go down the list of every game on the card that’s moved
substantially and do this analysis. Then you have a list of maybe
six-or-so

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You just look at the games with
lines that have moved the most between Tuesday and Saturday. Say you find Army +9.5 on a parlay card (listed as +10 on the
card, but joke’s on you, ties lose), and they’re +4 at current market
maker prices.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
167
I know of people who bet parlay cards like this for a
substantial portion of their income. It’s not glamorous, but it does
work.
🏈🏈
Prop parlay cards are becoming increasingly popular. This is the
same idea as the parlay card I just described, except instead of
point spreads for fifty-odd college football games, the cards list a
prop menu for a few selected high-profile games. Maybe the
parlay card lists an array of props that pertain to this week’s NFL
Sunday and Monday Night Football games. Same caveats apply—these cards short pay and have some
nasty rules. Same upside also applies—often the lines are stale
(i.e., not updated with market or other information), and because
all the options pertain to just one or two events, there’s often
plenty of correlation in there to

CURRENT SUMMARY:
167
I know of people who bet parlay cards like this for a
substantial portion of their income. It’s not glamorous, but it does
work.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
These things are very
beatable. Finally, while the traditional parlay card requires you to walk
into a sportsbook and bubble in your selections on an actual card
with a #2 pencil, I’ve seen this product get a digital makeover at
some sportsbooks—you can bet the exact same thing on your
phone app.
🏈🏈
Just as legs of a parlay can be correlated, they can also be anticorrelated. Winning one leg makes it less likely you win another
leg. Unlike the correlated parlays that work in your favor,
sportsbooks have no problem letting you bet anti-correlated
parlays.

168

CURRENT SUMMARY:
These things are very
beatable. Finally, while the traditional parlay card requires you to walk
into a sportsbook and bubble in your selections on an actual card
with a #2 pencil, I’ve seen this product get a digital makeover at
some sportsbooks—you can bet the exact same thing on your
phone app.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
An anti-correlated parlay that I see people bet all the time is to
bet both sides of an NFL teaser. Say the line on the BroncosChargers game is Chargers -7.5. With some justification like, “I
think the Chargers will win, but not blow the Broncos out,” they
will tease the Chargers to -1.5 and also tease the Broncos to +13.5
and put both bets on the same ticket. This may be the single worst sports bet that people actually
make on a regular basis. The bets are anti-correlated. If you know
that Chargers cover -1.5, that makes the Broncos covering +13.5
less likely, because you are removing all the situations from
consideration where the Broncos win the game outright. The same logic goes the other direction. I’m not saying it’s
impossible for the Chargers to win and the game to land be

CURRENT SUMMARY:
An anti-correlated parlay that I see people bet all the time is to
bet both sides of an NFL teaser. Say the line on the BroncosChargers game is Chargers -7.5.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
just saying that getting paid only -110 (or whatever your two-leg
teaser pays) on that bet is horrendous. In a typical NFL game with a favorite of around -7.5, my
model says the game should land between those numbers
somewhere around 37 to 40% of the time. So you’re betting on
let’s call it a 40% event at a break-even percentage of 52.4%. Not
good.
🏈🏈
If you think you’ve identified a trend in a sport that is so far
uncaptured in the market, you can often exploit it more
thoroughly with parlays. A few years back, home run totals began
to spike in MLB games. At first it seemed like an anomaly. Then
the spike kept on going. Eventually MLB acknowledged that the
balls were manufactured a bit livelier during this period. If you had been on top of this trend from the beginning, a
goo

CURRENT SUMMARY:
just saying that getting paid only -110 (or whatever your two-leg
teaser pays) on that bet is horrendous. In a typical NFL game with a favorite of around -7.5, my
model says the game should land between those numbers
somewhere around 37 to 40% of the time.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas