Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
They
may copy them. They may license a data feed that provides
lines—this is how most in-play lines are delivered to retail
sportsbooks. These lines are a bit of a black box. Because the retail
sportsbook isn’t provided all the backstory about how the line
was created (this information stays with the market maker), they
don’t really know how strong the lines are, which side may offer
a good bet, and so on. Because they’re in the dark about all this, they’re vulnerable to
any bettor who may have more information about their markets
than they do. This is not inside information about players or coaches
involved in the sporting event. It’s market information like who
bet what, when, and why into the market making sportsbook.

58

CURRENT SUMMARY:
They
may copy them. They may license a data feed that provides
lines—this is how most in-play lines are delivered to retail
sportsbooks.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
This sort of information leaks widely among serious bettors but
is less accessible to the operators of retail sportsbooks. Therefore, retail sportsbooks must balance two competing
concerns. They want to drive as much volume as they can while
still maintaining their margins. But they are in perpetual fear that
they are getting the wrong kind of volume—the volume from
bettors who know more about their markets than they do. Retail books typically walk this line by taking protective
measures. They use relatively low betting limits—doubly so for
bets taken on an app or website rather than in person over the
counter. They increase the hold in their markets as much as they
feel like they can while still driving volume. And, most
controversially, they curate their customer pool—sometimes

CURRENT SUMMARY:
This sort of information leaks widely among serious bettors but
is less accessible to the operators of retail sportsbooks. Therefore, retail sportsbooks must balance two competing
concerns.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
In other words, if they think you’re beating them, they might
restrict your betting to nominal amounts (e.g., $20) or close your
betting account entirely. While market making books heavily profile customers so they
know how best to move their lines in response to action, retail
books heavily profile customers so that they can determine which
ones they don’t want.
“Low limits?” you might ask. “But I just saw a report of a sixfigure bet placed on a college football game. That doesn’t seem
low to me!”
Large bets like these are considered on a case-by-case basis by
a retail sportsbook. They will accept the action if they are fairly
sure the customer isn’t trying to exploit vulnerabilities in the lines
(i.e., they’re fairly sure the customer will lose if they keep betting). Or if the

CURRENT SUMMARY:
In other words, if they think you’re beating them, they might
restrict your betting to nominal amounts (e.g., $20) or close your
betting account entirely. While market making books heavily profile customers so they
know how best to move their lines in response to action, retail
books heavily profile customers so that they can determine which
ones they don’t want.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
59
lose a big bet at least they can get a photo op handing the winner
an oversized check.)
But if you were to open a mobile betting account at the same
operator and try to place the same bet that you just saw wellpublicized, there’s a good chance you would run into a betting
limit like $2,000 or possibly even lower. One thing you will notice about retail sportsbooks is that they
often do not move their lines on action. If you make a limit bet
into a market maker, they will usually move the line immediately.
(How much they move depends on how they have profiled you
as a customer.)
If you make a limit bet at a retail book, however, they will often
not move the line. This is because they are committed to
shadowing the market maker’s lines rather than making their own
market. Thin

CURRENT SUMMARY:
59
lose a big bet at least they can get a photo op handing the winner
an oversized check.)
But if you were to open a mobile betting account at the same
operator and try to place the same bet that you just saw wellpublicized, there’s a good chance you would run into a betting
limit like $2,000 or possibly even lower. One thing you will notice about retail sportsbooks is that they
often do not

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Bullion,
jewelry, and so on, in small amounts like people would have in
their homes. The shopkeeper’s business model would probably be to
Google “price of gold” every five minutes and then subtract some
dollars when buying and add some dollars when selling. But let’s say this shopkeeper also wanted to use the “take a
bet, move the line” model of the market maker. Someone walks
into his shop with a bunch of heirloom jewelry and wants to sell
the gold. This is a lot of gold—about the limit of what he would
normally see in a transaction. He quotes his price of market-maker-price-minus-somedollars, and the person agrees to sell. Should he now “move the line”? For the next customer who
walks in, should he quote a price that’s lower than what Google
says just because his last customer

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Bullion,
jewelry, and so on, in small amounts like people would have in
their homes. The shopkeeper’s business model would probably be to
Google “price of gold” every five minutes and then subtract some
dollars when buying and add some dollars when selling.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure out what the user is asking for here. They've provided a chunk of text about a shopkeeper dealing with bullion and jewelry, and they want me to extract the most important


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Intuitively it doesn’t make much sense, right? And what if you found a shopkeeper who did that? Every time
they bought gold, they lowered their price for the next customer. And every time they sold gold, they raised their price for the next
customer? You could make money just by sitting outside this
fellow’s shop, and every time his price went far enough above or
below the market maker’s price, you could just buy (at a low price)
or sell (at a high price) to take advantage of it. If you ever ended up with more gold than you wanted, you’d
just sell it to the market maker at the market price. And if you
ever ended up with not enough gold so you could take advantage
of a selling opportunity, you’d just buy a working supply from the
market maker. You wouldn’t have to know anything int

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Intuitively it doesn’t make much sense, right? And what if you found a shopkeeper who did that?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You wouldn’t have to know anything interesting about gold,
nor would you have to be able to predict price movement at the
market maker whatsoever. All you’d have to do is Google “price
of gold” and every time this guy was selling for less, buy it. And
every time he’s buying for more, sell it. This simple strategy is called arbitrage, and it’s a tried and true
way to make money. When applied to sports betting it’s called
either scalping (when buying and selling the same bet—like a
moneyline bet), or middling (when buying and selling slightly
different bets like point spread bets pegged to different numbers
of points). If a retail sportsbook made a habit of moving on action,
sometimes a line would be far enough from the price of the
market making book that someone could buy the be

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You wouldn’t have to know anything interesting about gold,
nor would you have to be able to predict price movement at the
market maker whatsoever. All you’d have to do is Google “price
of gold” and every time this guy was selling for less, buy it.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
61
you make a habit of taking only those bets where they offer a
much better price than the market maker, they will tell you to get
lost. And, for the most part, retail sportsbooks try not to offer
arbitrage opportunities in the first place. Most sportsbooks rely mostly on the retail model. Certainly, if
you see them actively advertising, offering promotions, and so on,
it’s likely you’re looking at a retail book. The upsides to the retail model are that you don’t have to do
the heavy lifting of making the market yourself. You kick out
customers who can beat you, and you’re left mostly just with
customers who will lose over time because they can’t identify the
good bets from the bad. If you increase the hold, you increase your margins. Then the
trick is just to try to get more c

CURRENT SUMMARY:
61
you make a habit of taking only those bets where they offer a
much better price than the market maker, they will tell you to get
lost. And, for the most part, retail sportsbooks try not to offer
arbitrage opportunities in the first place.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this query. The user is asking for an improved knowledge card based on a sports betting excerpt. They provided the previous interaction where I struggled to understand the advice


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The downside to the retail model is that there’s a whole lot of
competition, as this is what most books are trying to do. Everyone wants the reliable customer who will click in bets and
has no real chance to win. This one will offer a deposit bonus. That one will advertise on TV. The other one will offer a loss
rebate. A fourth one will promote odds boosted markets where
the hold is reduced or removed. A fifth one, not to be outdone,
will offer a deposit bonus, advertise on TV, offer loss rebates,
promote boosted markets, and make it rain two-dollar bills
outside their main offices every Tuesday. You get the idea. Obviously this is an oversimplification of the sports betting
industry, but in broad strokes this is what you need to know about
how sportsbooks operate to identify good

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The downside to the retail model is that there’s a whole lot of
competition, as this is what most books are trying to do. Everyone wants the reliable customer who will click in bets and
has no real chance to win.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
lines at one type of sportsbook, there’s a good chance they’re
actually very accurate, and you’ll lose the hold. Whereas if you
find “off” lines somewhere else, it’s possible you’ve found the
candy store. Use this insight into how books run their businesses
and find the candy stores. Public Money

Sports betting media is obsessed with the concept of public
money. “The public is all over the Patriots,” says the guy writing
an article for a sports betting blog.
“The public loves favorites and overs,” says the fast-talking
tout on a podcast.
“Look at this detailed chart of where all the public money is
according to Sportsbook Manager Jon Johnson,” it says in the
Tweet, along with a screenshot of a detailed spreadsheet of
dozens of numbers and percentages. The converse of the “pu

CURRENT SUMMARY:
lines at one type of sportsbook, there’s a good chance they’re
actually very accurate, and you’ll lose the hold. Whereas if you
find “off” lines somewhere else, it’s possible you’ve found the
candy store.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Public Money

Sports betting media is obsessed with the concept of public
money. “The public is all over the Patriots,” says the guy writing
an article for a sports betting blog.
“The public loves favorites and overs,” says the fast-talking
tout on a podcast.
“Look at this detailed chart of where all the public money is
according to Sportsbook Manager Jon Johnson,” it says in the
Tweet, along with a screenshot of a detailed spreadsheet of
dozens of numbers and percentages. The converse of the “public money” discussion is where all
the “sharp money” is. “The sharps are all over Iona,” says the
host on the sports betting TV show.
“This is a classic Pros-versus-Joes game.”
Okay, you get the idea. If you’ve seen it, you know what I’m
talking about. Usually this information is pr

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Public Money

Sports betting media is obsessed with the concept of public
money. “The public is all over the Patriots,” says the guy writing
an article for a sports betting blog.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
then if you wait until game time, the public is going to move the
line to minus-11, and you can bet the other side and lock in a nice
middle.”
For the most part, none of this information is useful in any
meaningful way to find good bets. That’s the bottom line. If you followed the discussion in the market making and retail
book explainers before, you have enough knowledge to
understand why. The vast majority of lines get set through price discovery at a
small handful of market making books. The retail books then use
these lines to price their markets. Even if public action on one
side or another of these markets is lopsided, the retail books stay
firm with their prices so as not to offer arbitrage opportunities
with market makers. They end up just gambling on the outcome.
(Limi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
then if you wait until game time, the public is going to move the
line to minus-11, and you can bet the other side and lock in a nice
middle.”
For the most part, none of this information is useful in any
meaningful way to find good bets. That’s the bottom line.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
They end up just gambling on the outcome.
(Limited exceptions to this general rule can happen in markets
where there is massive public interest—NFL playoff games,
World Cup games, and the like. These are markets where the
public action can be large enough and one-sided enough that a
retail book can’t fade the risk of losing their side and they’re
forced to move their line at least somewhat on public action.)
Most sportsbooks use the retail book business model, and
most of the public action is booked by retail books. In summary, lines for the entire market are set predominantly
at a handful of market making books. Most of the public action
happens at retail books, which don’t tend to move their lines
much based on public action. Therefore, the huge weight of public action has rel

CURRENT SUMMARY:
They end up just gambling on the outcome. (Limited exceptions to this general rule can happen in markets
where there is massive public interest—NFL playoff games,
World Cup games, and the like.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
65
how the Dodgers line is set, since it’s set by different entities than
the ones booking all the public money. To be clear, it’s not that public money has zero effect on where
the lines are. It does matter a little. For one, market making books
get plenty of public action as well. They just also get a lot of socalled “sharp” action, and they tend to move the lines far more in
response to the sharp action than the public action. But let’s say
in a very high-profile game, the big public bettors all happen to
like the same side for some reason. In that specific case, you’d
expect the public money to influence the line, and fading the
public might give you a free bet. The Floyd Mayweather-Conor McGregor fight on August 26,

CURRENT SUMMARY:
65
how the Dodgers line is set, since it’s set by different entities than
the ones booking all the public money. To be clear, it’s not that public money has zero effect on where
the lines are.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
enormously high-profile, and public money absolutely poured in
on McGregor. Besides the fact that most bettors simply liked
McGregor more, it wasn’t so easy to bet on Mayweather even if
you tried to be objective about the fighters’ chances. Mayweather
was clearly a big favorite. (The only question being how big a
favorite he should be.) That meant to bet on him, you had to lay
a big price like -500 or more. It’s not fun to bet $500 to win
$100—not nearly as much as it is to bet $100 to win $350 like you
could on McGregor. Every sharp sports bettor I knew had placed a very large bet
on Mayweather for that fight. But that just wasn’t enough money
to stem the tide of public money on McGregor. For that event, you didn’t have to know a thing about boxing. All you had to know to find t

CURRENT SUMMARY:
enormously high-profile, and public money absolutely poured in
on McGregor. Besides the fact that most bettors simply liked
McGregor more, it wasn’t so easy to bet on Mayweather even if
you tried to be objective about the fighters’ chances.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
In most markets for most games most days, a few books take
bets from all comers, and they move their lines on action. Once
the line settles in, almost by definition it means that there is no
longer a sharp side. Because if there were still a sharp side, sharps
would bet it, and the line would move. It does you no good to be told that a few sharp bettors bet
UTEP +9 if the only bets available now are UTEP +7.5. Maybe
UTEP +9 was a “sharp side”, but that is meaningless regarding
what’s currently available. It also does you no good to know that the public is “all over”
New Mexico State -7.5. That public action has little effect on what
the market maker will make their line, and retail books will try to
shadow the market maker’s line regardless of how their customers
are splitting t

CURRENT SUMMARY:
In most markets for most games most days, a few books take
bets from all comers, and they move their lines on action. Once
the line settles in, almost by definition it means that there is no
longer a sharp side.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Also never forget that there’s a sizable hold on every market. Even when the public money influences the line, it would have to
push the line at least roughly 3% on the break-even percentage
(e.g., from 50% to 53%) until you could even consider using this
public money as a betting angle. In 99% of cases, all this public money sharp money stuff, while
maybe interesting, will not help you in any way to find good bets. The exceptions come when there is a very high-profile event
where for whatever reason most people are strongly inclined to
bet one way and not the other. In these cases, you can likely bet
the other way blindly and consider it a good bet. But that’s about
it for the whole pros versus Joes thing. In-Play Betting

So far, the betting markets I’ve talked about are pregam

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Also never forget that there’s a sizable hold on every market. Even when the public money influences the line, it would have to
push the line at least roughly 3% on the break-even percentage
(e.g., from 50% to 53%) until you could even consider using this
public money as a betting angle.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The main three markets—spread, moneyline, and total—and the
derivative markets—first half spread, moneyline, and total—they
are all offered before the game starts. Once the game begins, the
markets close. In-play markets open once the game begins. Most sportsbooks
these days offer at least some form of in-play betting. The menus
at some books can be as simple as continuations of the main three
pregame markets. Or at other books the menus can be extremely
extensive with hundreds of betting options available at all (or at
least most) times. Say you’re watching an MLB baseball game and open your
favorite sportsbook’s app. They have a couple dozen markets
available on the game—moneyline, run line, total for the game,
the same bets but for the first five innings only, the first seven

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The main three markets—spread, moneyline, and total—and the
derivative markets—first half spread, moneyline, and total—they
are all offered before the game starts. Once the game begins, the
markets close.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
who sell up-to-the-second pricing on in-play betting markets as a
service. (As a matter of disclosure, at the time of this writing, I
am in the process of launching one of these vendor companies. So this is a topic that I know a fair bit about, but also where I may
have some personal biases that come through in the discussion.)
The way it works, roughly, is a sportsbook operator decides
they would like to offer in-play betting markets to their
customers. They contract with a third-party vendor who provides
a data feed with markets and suggested prices. The sportsbook
then adds a hold to the markets—how much they add is up to
them—and they offer the bets to their customers. Some sportsbooks contract with multiple vendors and
combine the individual feeds with perhaps a twist of the

CURRENT SUMMARY:
who sell up-to-the-second pricing on in-play betting markets as a
service. (As a matter of disclosure, at the time of this writing, I
am in the process of launching one of these vendor companies.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Okay, so the operators buy a feed of pricing. But how do the
vendor companies price all these markets in real time as the game
is in progress? Exactly how any vendor does this is going to be proprietary,
and they all do it a little differently. But the basic idea is that each
vendor will have some sort of model, algorithm, or other process
that takes in information about the teams, as well as game state
information, and transforms that into prices for the markets. Here’s a simplified example. Let’s say it’s the top of the
seventh inning in an MLB game, and the home team is ahead 4-3. The pregame betting markets closed (at market maker books)
with the home team as a 62% favorite to win the game, and the
total closed at 9.5 with the over at a 52% break-even percentage. You want to m

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Okay, so the operators buy a feed of pricing. But how do the
vendor companies price all these markets in real time as the game
is in progress?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
69
one run in the top of the seventh. Then you just count what
percentage of those games the home team ended up winning, and
there’s your line. You wouldn’t want people to have to run these calculations
during the game, so this process is automated—either by using
fast database queries or by precomputing the answers. What I just described is a simplified version of how one could
make an in-play line. I don’t know how accurately this process
describes what happens at the various vendors, and this sort of
analysis is only one piece of the puzzle when I make a line. But the basic idea is there. You take information about the
strength of the teams (pregame closing lines), information about
the game state (the score, the inning and/or how much time is
remaining, and any other relevan

CURRENT SUMMARY:
69
one run in the top of the seventh. Then you just count what
percentage of those games the home team ended up winning, and
there’s your line.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this query. The user is asking me to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on a specific excerpt. The excerpt discusses how in-play betting lines are determ


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You take information about the
strength of the teams (pregame closing lines), information about
the game state (the score, the inning and/or how much time is
remaining, and any other relevant information like who has the
ball, position on the field, and so on), and combine them
intelligently to come up with a line. There are two major problems with this, and you may already
have thought of them both. The first problem is that there is an enormous amount of
information available once the game starts that wasn’t reflected in
the pregame lines. Maybe a player or two got injured during the game. Maybe the teams are playing different strategies than the
market expected before the game started. Maybe the teams are playing faster or slower. Maybe they’re fouling more or less. Maybe the w

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You take information about the
strength of the teams (pregame closing lines), information about
the game state (the score, the inning and/or how much time is
remaining, and any other relevant information like who has the
ball, position on the field, and so on), and combine them
intelligently to come up with a line. There are two major problems with this, and you may already
have thought of t

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this step by step. So, the user provided a query where they're asking me to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on an excerpt. They've also given a histor


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
extremely difficult (in some cases) or nearly impossible (in others)
to account for correctly, in real time, second-by-second, in an inplay line feed. And sportsbooks aren’t content these days with offering just
a spread and total in-play. They want to offer dozens of markets. All updated by the second. All priced in an instant. I call this wide range of betting options that sportsbooks offer
without fully understanding them “attack surface,” a concept I’m
borrowing from computer security that I think also describes
sports betting well. I’ll explain the analogy a little later in the book. The second major problem from the sportsbook’s perspective
with offering in-play is that they rely on correct, up-to-the-second
game state information. Since the game state is a key part of the
eq

CURRENT SUMMARY:
extremely difficult (in some cases) or nearly impossible (in others)
to account for correctly, in real time, second-by-second, in an inplay line feed. And sportsbooks aren’t content these days with offering just
a spread and total in-play.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Since the game state is a key part of the
equation to price the markets, if the game state data is either slow
or error-prone, the lines priced using it will also be slow or errorprone. In the UK where in-play betting is a more mature product,
sportsbooks complain about “courtsiders,” which is a very
English term for bettors who are trying to take advantage of slow
data feeds by watching events in person and getting key
information several seconds faster than the sportsbook receives
it (via their third party odds vendor which gets it via a data feed). Even if the data feed is fast, sportsbooks are potentially
vulnerable to every glitch or mistake in the data feed. “The ball is
at the Rams 35-yard line.” Five seconds later. “Whoops. That was
the Patriots 35-yard line. Sorry about

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Since the game state is a key part of the
equation to price the markets, if the game state data is either slow
or error-prone, the lines priced using it will also be slow or errorprone. In the UK where in-play betting is a more mature product,
sportsbooks complain about “courtsiders,” which is a very
English term for bettors who are trying to take advantage of slow
data feeds by watching even

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
71
Nevertheless, despite these two big problems, sportsbook
operators know their customers want to bet during games, and so
they offer a variety of markets priced in just this way. There’s one other big divide with how sportsbooks offer inplay betting. I’m not sure there are industry-approved terms for
these variants, so I call them “timeout” betting and “running
down the field” betting. Timeout in-play betting is a style that focuses on offering bets
to customers only during stoppages in play—timeouts and
commercial breaks. While the game is in progress, the bets are
unavailable. Then once play stops, the markets go up for a couple
minutes until the game starts back up again. Running down the field in-play betting is a style that always
attempts to offer bets, even while the gam

CURRENT SUMMARY:
71
Nevertheless, despite these two big problems, sportsbook
operators know their customers want to bet during games, and so
they offer a variety of markets priced in just this way. There’s one other big divide with how sportsbooks offer inplay betting.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm faced with this task of refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document, specifically based on an excerpt from a provided document. The user has given me a series of interactions


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
In-play betting is most popular so far in Europe, and soccer is
the most popular sport to bet in Europe. Therefore, as you might
imagine, running down the field betting is very popular there. Soccer has few timeouts, so if you waited for one to offer in-play
betting, you’d be waiting a very long time. And in soccer there are
many periods of time during a game where the ball is being passed
back and forth in the defensive half, and it’s unlikely a goal will
be scored in the next thirty seconds or so. As a result, running
down the field betting is a pretty good choice for soccer betting. American sports are different, though. Things happen faster. In the NBA, the average possession is now just a little over ten
seconds. In football, a team could break a big play for a
touchdown basi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
In-play betting is most popular so far in Europe, and soccer is
the most popular sport to bet in Europe. Therefore, as you might
imagine, running down the field betting is very popular there.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, let's see. The user provided a query where they want me to extract the most important information from a sports betting excerpt and create a refined knowledge card. The user has given me a speci


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Anyway, TV feeds are also delayed substantially. By the time
you see Steph Curry bury that three on TV, likely 10-to-20
seconds have passed since he did it in real life, and the other team
has probably already completed an entire possession in the
meantime. The sportsbook knows (via their third-party vendor
feed) what happened on that possession. That’s a
problem. American sports also all happen to have plenty of timeouts. The timeout model is a great fit for American sports, while the
running down the field model is fraught with problems. I’ve seen
some sportsbooks try to use the running down the field model on
American sports, but to me that’s a square peg in a round hole. I
suspect as the industry evolves that we will see the timeout model
take root as the predominant form of

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Anyway, TV feeds are also delayed substantially. By the time
you see Steph Curry bury that three on TV, likely 10-to-20
seconds have passed since he did it in real life, and the other team
has probably already completed an entire possession in the
meantime.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Bets and Books

Before I move on to the next part, where I break down where to
look to find good sports bets, I wanted to summarize the
information so far. Hopefully you found the inside-the-industry
information here interesting, but beyond that it’s critical to know
a bit about how it all works if you want to succeed at finding good
bets. There are two main business models for sportsbooks. The
market maker model and the retail model. The market maker
model is to accept bets from all bettors, profile your customers,
and move your market prices on action. This is a difficult model
to run profitably. You have to make hard decisions about exactly
how to move the prices on your markets, and also if and how
much to move related markets when a single market gets bet into. You also c

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Bets and Books

Before I move on to the next part, where I break down where to
look to find good sports bets, I wanted to summarize the
information so far. Hopefully you found the inside-the-industry
information here interesting, but beyond that it’s critical to know
a bit about how it all works if you want to succeed at finding good
bets.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The retail model is to accept bets only from recreational
customers. If you determine that someone is likely beating you,
you limit their bet sizes, or you close their account entirely. You
often don’t move your prices on action—instead you try to mark
your market prices to those at the market maker books. It’s much easier to win a good hold percentage from your
customers when you run your business this way—after all you are
actively limiting or kicking out any customer who you think might
be able to beat you. But because it’s easier to run a book this way,

74

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The retail model is to accept bets only from recreational
customers. If you determine that someone is likely beating you,
you limit their bet sizes, or you close their account entirely.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
there is plenty of competition, and marketing costs can become
difficult to keep up with. Many operators run a business model that is a bit of a hybrid
between these two extremes. Some market makers will only make
markets for a few core sports and will behave more like retail
books for the other sports. Some retail books attempt to limit or
refuse as few customers as possible. They know that the broader
a range of customers they can serve (profitably), the more money
they stand to make. And accepting customers other sportsbooks refuse is great
marketing that you don’t have to pay for. The way lines get made is that market maker books post
opening lines with low limits and begin to accept bets. They do
the best job they can to make opening lines that are reasonable,
but in the en

CURRENT SUMMARY:
there is plenty of competition, and marketing costs can become
difficult to keep up with. Many operators run a business model that is a bit of a hybrid
between these two extremes.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The way lines get made is that market maker books post
opening lines with low limits and begin to accept bets. They do
the best job they can to make opening lines that are reasonable,
but in the end it’s not resource-efficient to spend too much time
making any one line, and so inevitably whatever system they use
to make openers will be flawed, and there will be some great bets
available to the early birds. This is why market makers keep the limits low early—the early
birds get in a few pecks, but they can’t gorge themselves. Market makers move these early lines quickly on action. They
use all the information available, including any profiles they may
have of the accounts making the bets. While moving lines in
response to action is a core practice of all market making books,
ther

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The way lines get made is that market maker books post
opening lines with low limits and begin to accept bets. They do
the best job they can to make opening lines that are reasonable,
but in the end it’s not resource-efficient to spend too much time
making any one line, and so inevitably whatever system they use
to make openers will be flawed, and there will be some great bets
available to t

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
75
with mediocre talent tend not to survive. It’s not so easy to be the
house in the world of sports betting. Once the market makers’ lines have begun to stabilize for an
event, retail books will post the same markets, opening with the
lines the market makers have discovered. They may shade the
lines one way or another in anticipation of action from their
customer base. For example, if they know their customers love to
bet the Lakers, they might make any bets on the Lakers more
expensive by a few percent. But rarely will they take this idea too
far—typically they will anchor even their skewed markets to the
lines at the market makers. Retail books will then peg their lines to those at the market
makers until the market closes. If a market maker moves a line,
retail books will m

CURRENT SUMMARY:
75
with mediocre talent tend not to survive. It’s not so easy to be the
house in the world of sports betting.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If a market maker moves a line,
retail books will make the same move. This is such an entrenched
strategy these days for retail books that there are third party
companies whose entire business is to sell this line service to retail
books—they will notify retail books in real time of any movement
in any monitored market at the market maker books. Some will
even automate the entire line movement process for a retail book. This is true for the major markets—point spread (or run line
in MLB/puck line in NHL), moneyline, and total. This is less true
for any derivative markets. First half markets have become fairly
major markets as well, so it’s common for retail books to peg their
first half lines to those at market makers as well. But the more exotic a derivative, the less likely the

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If a market maker moves a line,
retail books will make the same move. This is such an entrenched
strategy these days for retail books that there are third party
companies whose entire business is to sell this line service to retail
books—they will notify retail books in real time of any movement
in any monitored market at the market maker books.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
And then there are proposition bets (props). Player props (e.g.,
points scored by a player, touchdowns scored, runs scored, hits
plus runs plus RBIs, yards, completed passes, you name it). Team
props (team totals, corner kicks, faceoffs won, team field goals
kicked, team totals by half). Game props (first team to score, first
to reach a certain score, first to score a touchdown, total
touchdowns scored, scoring by time in the game, and more). Retail books love derivatives and props because their
customers love derivatives and props. But retail books don’t have
a great way to price several dozen derivatives and props for each
game, nor do they typically maintain sophisticated trading
rooms—at least not ones large enough that could reliably trade
every single event they offer all

CURRENT SUMMARY:
And then there are proposition bets (props). Player props (e.g.,
points scored by a player, touchdowns scored, runs scored, hits
plus runs plus RBIs, yards, completed passes, you name it).

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Retail books will often open these derivative and prop markets
by copying similar markets at a market maker. But as often as not,
they will just use the opening lines and most importantly will not
peg their lines to those at another book as the market develops. Or they may not copy the markets and lines at all and just put
up a quick and dirty opening line themselves. Their approaches to trading these markets can vary widely
from specific retail book to book. I’ve seen some that will move
their lines on a market 6% (e.g., the entire amount of the hold)
from a single limit bet (and limits on these markets are often as
low as $300 or lower). I’ve seen others that seem never to move
these lines at all to a limit bet. In no case have I seen any retail
book attempt to propagate any li

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Retail books will often open these derivative and prop markets
by copying similar markets at a market maker. But as often as not,
they will just use the opening lines and most importantly will not
peg their lines to those at another book as the market develops.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this step by step. The user is asking me to refine a knowledge card based on a sports betting document. They've provided an excerpt and a current summary, and they want the card


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
77
by the quarter, any in-game totals they may deal in the future, even
total field goal bets, and other props like total yards of offense,
defensive touchdowns scored, and more.
(Make sure you understand how each of these markets is
related to an over bet on combined touchdowns scored.)
I’ve never seen any retail book (and if I’m honest, for the
example given no market maker book either) make any real
attempt to propagate a line move in this market appropriately
through to any related markets. I’ve just said to the sportsbook (by betting) that I think the
teams will score lots of touchdowns. And the sportsbook will
maybe move that one market—maybe they’ll move it a lot—but
they won’t touch the pricing on any other market where scoring
lots of touchdowns would also matter. Her

CURRENT SUMMARY:
77
by the quarter, any in-game totals they may deal in the future, even
total field goal bets, and other props like total yards of offense,
defensive touchdowns scored, and more. (Make sure you understand how each of these markets is
related to an over bet on combined touchdowns scored.)
I’ve never seen any retail book (and if I’m honest, for the
example given no market maker book either) ma

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
And they aren’t priced well with respect to one
another. Everything I just said about derivative and prop markets I can
say about in-play markets, but even more so. Trading in-play
markets is a legitimately hard and complex problem. Books want
to offer all the same props and derivatives in-play as they do in
their pregame markets. So right off the bat these in-play derivative
and prop markets will suffer from the same vulnerabilities that
the pregame ones do. But layer on top of that all the extra
information available to you if you are following the game closely. Sportsbooks often deal a dozen or more different games (in
several different sports) simultaneously. They deal dozens of
derivative and prop markets in each of these games. That
amounts to hundreds of in-play markets a

CURRENT SUMMARY:
And they aren’t priced well with respect to one
another. Everything I just said about derivative and prop markets I can
say about in-play markets, but even more so.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to work through this step by step. The user has provided a series of queries and my responses, and now they're asking me to think aloud about how I would approach refining a knowle


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Your job as a bettor is just to find the flaws. Their job is to
make sure there aren’t any flaws in the first place. You can
imagine which job is (much) easier. My business and interest in this industry is to solve this
problem once and for all for sportsbooks. I can assure you it’s a
hard problem. Until a lot of smart people put in a lot of work to
get all this right, you can be sure that in-play betting will be
extremely vulnerable. You don’t have to be a “courtsider,” trying to front run the
information feed that sportsbooks use to price their markets. (In
fact, I think any attempt to do this systematically should be
considered cheating the sportsbook and potentially a crime.)
In-play betting is a game, a fun game, where you can use your
knowledge of the sport, what you see w

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Your job as a bettor is just to find the flaws. Their job is to
make sure there aren’t any flaws in the first place.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Betting The Best Price

If you want to make a bet, you should look at the prices at all the
sportsbooks available to you and choose to bet the best price. If
one book has Broncos +6 -110 and another has Broncos +6 -105
you should bet the -105 because it has a lower break-even
percentage. This is the traditional line-shopping advice, and obviously it’s
good. Buy your bets at the lowest available price. But I have a question. Why do I want to bet Broncos +6 in
the first place? A good answer to this frequently has relatively little to do with
the Broncos (or their opponents). After all, what we’re talking
about here is one of the majorest of major markets—an NFL
point spread. By the time this line gets to you, tens of thousands
of people, a few of whom may also be smart, have look

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Betting The Best Price

If you want to make a bet, you should look at the prices at all the
sportsbooks available to you and choose to bet the best price. If
one book has Broncos +6 -110 and another has Broncos +6 -105
you should bet the -105 because it has a lower break-even
percentage.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Let’s imagine a world, for a moment, where sportsbooks didn’t
put hold on their markets. You could bet Broncos +6 +100, or
you could bet Chiefs -6 +100. That’s a 0% hold. What would be
the implications for bettors? First, there would be no penalty for dart-throwing. You could
bet completely at random, and you would not lose over time. That’s a pretty big deal. The only way to be a losing sports bettor in this alternate world
would be to have a skill or gift for picking bad bets. This is a lot
harder than it sounds—because if you have the persistent ability
to pick bad bets then theoretically you can just bet the opposite
(if there’s 0% hold) and turn that into the ability to pick good
bets. As long as you’re trying to win (and not just picking the side
you want to root for), you

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Let’s imagine a world, for a moment, where sportsbooks didn’t
put hold on their markets. You could bet Broncos +6 +100, or
you could bet Chiefs -6 +100.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Weather starting to look
bad in Cleveland? Think you figured out an NHL trend
this year leading to higher scoring? Bet every over. There’s no penalty to it. If you’re wrong, it’s break-even. If
you’re right, the bets make money. You’re almost guaranteed to
be profitable over time doing this—again as long as the way you
choose your bets isn’t “let’s bet the most popular teams where I
live.”
Of course, this is a fantasy world. Sportsbooks put holds on
their markets, and the holds tend to be big enough that your

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Weather starting to look
bad in Cleveland? Think you figured out an NHL trend
this year leading to higher scoring?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
83
twinges of insight aren’t valuable enough to turn into profitable
bets. But it’s not entirely fantasy. Because while any single
sportsbook won’t offer a 0% hold market, you can frequently
synthesize a 0% hold market by using prices at two different
sportsbooks. Here’s the simplest example. You’re looking at today’s
Diamondbacks-Rockies game. Sportsbook A has the game priced
Diamondbacks +130/Rockies -140. Sportsbook B has the game
Diamondbacks +140/Rockies -150. Each book has their “standard” MLB moneyline hold on these
markets. But between them, you can see the prices
Diamondbacks +140 (at Sportsbook B)/Rockies -140 (at
Sportsbook A). Guess what. That’s a 0% hold synthetic market (“synthetic”
because it’s synthesized from two different markets). Everything
I just said abov

CURRENT SUMMARY:
83
twinges of insight aren’t valuable enough to turn into profitable
bets. But it’s not entirely fantasy.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Do you think the Rockies bullpen has been getting
lucky lately? Bet Diamondbacks +140. You’re probably wrong about most of that stuff—or at least
mostly wrong—but when the hold is 0%, there’s essentially no
penalty for being wrong. Only upside for being right. Much more frequently than 0% hold synthetic markets, you
can find microhold synthetic markets. Say the best you can find
is Diamondbacks +138/Rockies -140 between two sportsbooks. That’s a 0.35% hold. If you bet randomly into this market, you
will lose—but very slowly. And if you have any real insight at all
when making your bets, you’ll overcome a hold that small. Occasionally, the synthetic market hold goes negative. Like say
you found Diamondbacks +142/Rockies -140. This is a -0.35%
hold for the market, meaning you could

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Do you think the Rockies bullpen has been getting
lucky lately? Bet Diamondbacks +140.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You could bet $140 on the Rockies at -140, and $99.17
on the Diamondbacks at +142, and no matter who won, you’d
pocket 83 cents. When you find a synthetic market with a negative hold like
this, it’s called a scalp. There are hundreds of people as you read
this running computer scripts that scrape worldwide sportsbook
lines all day long looking for scalp situations and then
automatically betting them when found. Because it’s risk-free
profit that even a computer can identify easily. If you aren’t a computer, however, it’s usually better to treat
these scalps as you would a 0% hold market. You choose a side
you like better for one reason or another and bet only that side. If you’re essentially throwing darts when you pick, that’s okay. You’ll still probably make that 0.35% return on

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You could bet $140 on the Rockies at -140, and $99.17
on the Diamondbacks at +142, and no matter who won, you’d
pocket 83 cents. When you find a synthetic market with a negative hold like
this, it’s called a scalp.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You’ll still probably make that 0.35% return on your bets—only
thing you give up is the risk-free part when you pick one side
instead of betting both. The key idea here is that it’s relatively hard to find winning
bets when you’re betting into a 4.5% hold. If every sportsbook
has the exact same price on a market, that’s bad for you as a
bettor. When sportsbook prices start to diverge, and you can create
synthetic markets between them with 0% hold, it’s almost trivial
to be a winning bettor if you bet consistently only into those 0%
markets. And whether the market has a 0.35% hold or a -0.35%
or a true 0% hold really doesn’t matter much. Mathematically
there’s not too much difference between the three—unless you’re
trying to live the good life 83 cents at a time with an alwaysrun

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You’ll still probably make that 0.35% return on your bets—only
thing you give up is the risk-free part when you pick one side
instead of betting both. The key idea here is that it’s relatively hard to find winning
bets when you’re betting into a 4.5% hold.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Okay let’s switch sports to NFL. Say there’s a Dolphins-Bills
game on Sunday. Both Sportsbook A and B have the point spread
at -5.5, but A has it as -110/-110, and B has it at +100/-120. So
the best price on the Dolphins is +5.5 +100 and on the Bills
is -5.5 -110. That’s a 2.3% synthetic hold, which is a lot better
than 4.5%, but is also nowhere near zero. But let’s say the Bills are starting their backup quarterback for
the first time this week due to an injury in the fourth quarter of
last week’s game, and you have a strong opinion that this
quarterback is much better than people seem to be giving him
credit for. On the other hand, you know full well that you aren’t the only
person with an opinion about the Bills quarterback, and that
because NFL football sides are a huge mark

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Okay let’s switch sports to NFL. Say there’s a Dolphins-Bills
game on Sunday.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Missing something important is a huge potential problem for
you when you bet into a hold (even a 2.3% hold). It’s much less
important if you can get the hold to zero. Because, again, once
the hold is zero, you can throw darts and break-even. So if your
opinion has any real merit at all, your Bills bet will be worth
making. You turn to the moneyline markets. Sportsbook A has the
moneyline on the game as +170/-210. Sportsbook B has it
+190/-230. Teams that are 5.5-point favorites in the NFL tend to win the
game about 68% of the time. There are various ways to know
this—you can just look at a database of games and choose point
spreads around 5.5 and see how often the favorite wins. Or you

86

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Missing something important is a huge potential problem for
you when you bet into a hold (even a 2.3% hold). It’s much less
important if you can get the hold to zero.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this step by step. The user has provided a query where they're asking for help refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given an excerpt from the document


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
can build a model. For something this simple, you can also
theoretically just look at how the market makers tend to price
these games over a period of time. Anyway, one way or another you need to be able to convert
that -5.5 point spread to a 68% break-even percentage moneyline. The -210 price on the Bills converts to a 67.7% break-even
percentage. So now you have a pair of bets—at Sportsbook B there’s
Dolphins +5.5 +100 and at Sportsbook A there’s Bills -210 on
the moneyline—that create a new synthetic market with a slightly
negative hold. Let me go through that one more time. I want a market with zero hold. We’ve got Dolphins +5.5
+100. So ideally, I want Bills -5.5 +100 somewhere as well. But I
can’t find that price anywhere, the best I can find is Bills -5.5 -110,
which isn’t

CURRENT SUMMARY:
can build a model. For something this simple, you can also
theoretically just look at how the market makers tend to price
these games over a period of time.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But if I were to convert Bills -5.5 +100 to an equivalent
moneyline, we’d get 68% break-even percentage or about -213. Not only is -213 on the moneyline available, but -210 which is
ever so slightly better is listed at Sportsbook A. I now have our zero-hold market, and I can bet our Bills
quarterback hunch by taking the -210 moneyline price. This same idea can be used with other pairs of related markets
as well. Game spreads to first half spreads. First half spreads to
first half moneylines. Game point spreads and totals to team
totals. As long as you have a fairly reliable way to
convert one market to the appropriate price in the related market,
and you can find a zero hold market across that conversion, you
can use the “feel free to bet your ideas into zero hold markets
because

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But if I were to convert Bills -5.5 +100 to an equivalent
moneyline, we’d get 68% break-even percentage or about -213. Not only is -213 on the moneyline available, but -210 which is
ever so slightly better is listed at Sportsbook A.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy to l


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
87
from my model. My model can be wrong. It can be wrong because
I built it badly. It can be wrong because it has some inherent error
in it. It can also be wrong because the game is changing and for
whatever reason NFL teams are now materially more or less likely
than in the past to win by between 1 and 5 points. Fortunately, it doesn’t have to be dead-on to make money with
this idea. If I think the hold is -0.35%, but it’s actually 0.35%,
that’s not great, but it’s still probably fine to bet my Bills backup
quarterback idea into. Of course if my conversions are so bad that they can be 3%
off the “right” answer, then it’s not going to work out. I need to
develop ways to convert between related markets that are very
good but not necessarily perfect. Once I have that, then my
cha

CURRENT SUMMARY:
87
from my model. My model can be wrong.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Incidentally, this is all people are doing when you hear that
they’re “middling” a game. They’ve found a pair of related bets
(at different point spreads) that create a negative hold synthetic
market. Like I said with scalping above, it’s often better once
you’ve identified such a pair to bet just one of the two bets—the
one you happen to like better for whatever reason. Betting both
of them cuts your risk profile way down, but it also tends to cut
your long-term profit as well. The more real insight you have into
the sport and the game you’re looking at, the truer this is.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Incidentally, this is all people are doing when you hear that
they’re “middling” a game. They’ve found a pair of related bets
(at different point spreads) that create a negative hold synthetic
market.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Then you see the main college football market maker go to
14.5, then straight to 16. Who is betting the Sooners? Whoever it is, the market maker sure thinks they
know their stuff in college football, and that’s good enough. Other sportsbooks start following the price move, but there’s
one you see that hasn’t touched their line. You log in real fast and bet Oklahoma -14 before they can
move their line. That’s chasing steam. You’re basically watching the market for
any significant price movement, and then looking for sportsbooks
who are slow to move their lines so you can pick off the old
number before they get around to changing it. This is just a subcase of the more general idea from above—
betting into zero or negative hold markets. For a brief period, you
have found a pair of bet

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Then you see the main college football market maker go to
14.5, then straight to 16. Who is betting the Sooners?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
For a brief period, you
have found a pair of bets, Oklahoma -14 and Kansas State +16,
that have a whopping -1.2% hold synthetic market. (I estimated
the hold by using my college football push rate chart. You can
find charts like these online if you do some searching.)
The sportsbooks have—for just a moment—decided to offer
you the hold instead of keeping it for themselves. This is a perfect example of a situation where you could
middle the market by betting both sides and lock in a profit—but
you probably shouldn’t. Because you aren’t flipping a
coin to decide which of these bets is the good one and which is
the bad one. The bad bet is the Kansas State +16 bet. Because that’s the price that the preeminent market maker is
offering—a price they got to through the price discovery p

CURRENT SUMMARY:
For a brief period, you
have found a pair of bets, Oklahoma -14 and Kansas State +16,
that have a whopping -1.2% hold synthetic market. (I estimated
the hold by using my college football push rate chart.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
89
The -14 price, on the other hand, is only on offer because a
retail book who normally copies the market maker’s moves
happened to be asleep at the wheel for the past couple minutes. Steam chasing wins. It wins because you’re betting into a zerohold market with an informational advantage. You may not know
a thing about either the Sooners or the Wildcats. But you know
you can bet on either one with zero hold (in this case negative
hold). And you also know which sportsbook is likely to have the
sharper line, because you know how each sportsbook makes their
lines. And that’s all you need to know to make a little money. Sportsbooks, as a rule, hate steam chasers. You can see why. Think about how you’d feel if you ran a sportsbook and every
time you took a bathroom break, some guy wo

CURRENT SUMMARY:
89
The -14 price, on the other hand, is only on offer because a
retail book who normally copies the market maker’s moves
happened to be asleep at the wheel for the past couple minutes. Steam chasing wins.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You’ve probably heard of line shopping. “Figure out what you
want to bet and then go find the sportsbook that has the best
price.”
But, honestly, that advice is really kind of backwards. Better
advice in most cases would look like, “Find games where you can
create zero hold synthetic markets between sportsbooks and
using related markets. Once you find games like that, figure out
which side you like better and bet that at the best price.”

90

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You’ve probably heard of line shopping. “Figure out what you
want to bet and then go find the sportsbook that has the best
price.”
But, honestly, that advice is really kind of backwards.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
This is not how most people think about sports betting. For
most people, the hunch about the game comes first, and the price
shopping comes second. Most people don’t think, “Well let me
go look at every sportsbook’s lines and try to find the ones where
the world is cutting me a break and focus on betting just those.”
Most people also lose. Beating The Odds

I mentioned the term “attack surface” before and said that I
would explain my analogy to computer security. Here’s the first
part of that analogy. It would be very hard to write a book to teach you to break
into computer systems—at least the way most people would think
about it.
“Hey. Teach me to hack the Pentagon.”
“Sure thing, reader. Go to this URL and you download this
script and then you run the script and it execute

CURRENT SUMMARY:
This is not how most people think about sports betting. For
most people, the hunch about the game comes first, and the price
shopping comes second.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Go to this URL and you download this
script and then you run the script and it executes Pentagon
Hacking Exploit Number 492 and then…”
That’s not how it works, right? Because in some crazy world
where you could go to a URL and download a script that actually
hacks the Pentagon, the moment I wrote it down in a book and
anyone at the Pentagon read it, they would patch the system. The directions in the book would be obsolete long before they
released me from my detention in a featureless interrogation
room. Long before. Anyway, it’s much the same with sports betting. The more
specific the directions I try to give you in the book about how to
win, the quicker those tactics will become obsolete. Sportsbook
employees will no doubt read this book too, and if I say, “Hey in
the NBA bet

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Go to this URL and you download this
script and then you run the script and it executes Pentagon
Hacking Exploit Number 492 and then…”
That’s not how it works, right? Because in some crazy world
where you could go to a URL and download a script that actually
hacks the Pentagon, the moment I wrote it down in a book and
anyone at the Pentagon read it, they would patch the system.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
they’ll start opening those lines lower, and the angle will be
obsolete. My approach here won’t be to give you specific recipes. I’m
going to help you develop a process for finding good bets. The core principle in that process is this. Attack sportsbooks
where they are vulnerable. Avoid betting into their strengths. Simple and intuitive. Avoid strength. Attack weakness. In many ways, besides the entertainment value, the entire
point of the first part of the book was to help you understand
where sportsbooks are strong and where they are weak. Of the
zillions of lines that sportsbooks offer every day, some of those
lines are made through a very robust process where a market
maker books millions of dollars of action on both sides. And some are pulled directly out of someone’s ass. You

CURRENT SUMMARY:
they’ll start opening those lines lower, and the angle will be
obsolete. My approach here won’t be to give you specific recipes.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
93
Advantage #1. Many traders, risk managers, and other
employees monitoring prices. Sportsbooks hire employees called “traders.” Exactly what
these folks do on a minute by minute basis depends on the
business model of the sportsbook, but their job is to make sure
that all the lines offered by the book are where they are supposed
to be. They watch the market—what lines other sportsbooks
have. They monitor incoming bets. They move lines. They may
decide whether to accept or reject bets on a customer-bycustomer basis. The bigger the sportsbook, the more of these people they will
have on staff. The largest sportsbooks in the world have hundreds
of these employees. Their entire job is to use everything at their
disposal to make sure you never get a good bet. Small sportsbooks employ

CURRENT SUMMARY:
93
Advantage #1. Many traders, risk managers, and other
employees monitoring prices.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Small sportsbooks employ relatively few traders, but often
they still have to monitor between them hundreds of markets. This naturally means that things will slip through the cracks, and
you will be more likely to find good bets and even flat-out
mistakes. Small books are also acutely aware of this shortcoming, and so
will usually have defensive policies in place. They’ll place strict
limits on how much you can bet on any one market (particularly
when you’re betting online). If it’s permitted by regulations, they
may be quick to cancel bets if they feel you’ve taken advantage of
an error. And if they see you as a customer who tries to nail them
on every mistake they make, they’ll probably show you the door. Large books will have many more traders, and so will make
fewer mistakes.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Small sportsbooks employ relatively few traders, but often
they still have to monitor between them hundreds of markets. This naturally means that things will slip through the cracks, and
you will be more likely to find good bets and even flat-out
mistakes.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Nevertheless, sportsbooks have a team of people trying to
beat you, and you are but one person. Has to count as an
advantage in their column. Advantage #2: Mathematical models to make derivative
and in-game prices. In general, derivative and in-game bets will be more vulnerable
than the main side and total markets. One reason is that derivative
and in-play markets aren’t forged in the fires of a liquid betting
market like the major pregame markets are. Popular derivatives
like first halves are exposed to market making, but more exotic
ones like quarters, single innings, props, and so on typically aren’t. But that doesn’t mean that all these prices are completely
random. They’re made by mathematical models (often supplied
by third party vendors to the sportsbooks). The math can be

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Nevertheless, sportsbooks have a team of people trying to
beat you, and you are but one person. Has to count as an
advantage in their column.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
This is a
very beatable market as of the writing of this book. But just
because it’s beatable doesn’t mean any old thought you have will
turn into a good bet. Say the Pats are 10-point favorites pregame, and then they
open the game scoring two touchdowns in the first quarter. You
see a Pats -20 -115 bet and think, “Many they’re rolling and they’re
the Pats and all they have to do is win the rest of the game by less
than a touchdown? Gimme that!”
Well, be very careful with that. The lines you were offered by
the book were made by a mathematical model, while you’re using
basically seat of the pants intuition. The math that goes into the in-play lines is far from perfect. But it’s there and it’s improving year-by-year. Even if your
intuition is good enough to beat their math today

CURRENT SUMMARY:
This is a
very beatable market as of the writing of this book. But just
because it’s beatable doesn’t mean any old thought you have will
turn into a good bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
95
If you want to beat this stuff, at some point you’ll have to fight
math with math. Advantage #3: Betting Information. Theoretically, the information advantage that sportsbooks
have should make it nearly impossible to beat them. I say theoretically, because information is only as good as the
person or software trying to use it. If the sportsbook employee or
software doesn’t make good use of this information, it’s no
advantage. But if that person really gets into it and tries to beat
every customer—particularly the high volume, high stakes
customers—the information at their disposal can be too much to
overcome. If you play poker, think about if you were playing heads-up
no-limit hold ’em online. Your opponent gets a heads-up display
(HUD) with up to the second summaries of your

CURRENT SUMMARY:
95
If you want to beat this stuff, at some point you’ll have to fight
math with math. Advantage #3: Betting Information.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas