Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
169
overs until the rest of the market caught up. Because the overs
would all be caused by the same phenomenon league-wide, there
would be a greater than normal chance that if one of your bets
was good, that they were all good. That fact, plus the naturally
increased betting volume you get from betting parlays, would
make the round robins the most efficient way to exploit such a
trend. There’s a knock-on effect on a strategy like this one. For every
extra percentage your overs win, you benefit twice—you win your
bet more often and you get more average volume (because the
first and second double-up bets win more often). That is, you get
both more edge and more volume. This is useful in situations like these because you often don’t
really know what your edge may be. Maybe the ove

CURRENT SUMMARY:
169
overs until the rest of the market caught up. Because the overs
would all be caused by the same phenomenon league-wide, there
would be a greater than normal chance that if one of your bets
was good, that they were all good.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Or maybe you’re just wrong about the whole thing and overs will
win 50% like normal. You can’t ever know for sure, because the
whole point is there’s no data supporting your angle—the data
supports the market prices where they are, and it’s only the brandnew trend that makes you think the market is off. Because of the knock-on effect, every extra percentage of
winning gives you disproportionately more upside when you
parlay the bets—whereas if you were to just bet this angle straight,
you’d get only a linear benefit from increasing win percentages. One way or another the edge (if it exists at all) will be gone
soon, so bang in the parlays and hope it’s a monster.
🏈🏈
Sportsbooks are often very restrictive about allowing you to
parlay derivatives and props—and for good reason. Corr

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Or maybe you’re just wrong about the whole thing and overs will
win 50% like normal. You can’t ever know for sure, because the
whole point is there’s no data supporting your angle—the data
supports the market prices where they are, and it’s only the brandnew trend that makes you think the market is off.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to understand what's going on here. So, the user is asking me to act as an expert researcher and provide a detailed analysis of a sports betting document. They've given me a series


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
between full game spreads and totals are usually fairly weak (the
college football example notwithstanding). You can create much
stronger correlations if you are allowed to parlay things like halves
and quarters bets, alternate spreads and alternate totals, game and
player props, team totals, and the like. When you open a sportsbook account, one of the most
valuable things you can do first is to explore their software and
see exactly which markets they will and won’t allow you to parlay.
🏈🏈
The clearest example of how parlays are primarily a method to
increase betting volume rather than “hold” hits social media
seemingly every week. Someone bets a mega-leg $10 parlay and
now has a sweat on the final leg for $50,000 or something. Media
folks start tweeting photos of the ticket a

CURRENT SUMMARY:
between full game spreads and totals are usually fairly weak (the
college football example notwithstanding). You can create much
stronger correlations if you are allowed to parlay things like halves
and quarters bets, alternate spreads and alternate totals, game and
player props, team totals, and the like.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Well, yeah. That’s because the guy is a $10 bettor, but through
the magic of parlay math, has managed to place a $25,000 bet on
the outcome of a single game. A $25,000 bet he doesn’t want,
never wanted, and now is trying to figure out how to take mostly
off the table. Parlays blow up betting volume. If that’s not what you want,
don’t bet them. If it is, though, then they can be an indispensable
tool. Multiway Markets And
Futures

Multiway markets are those with more than two options. I’m
lumping futures in here also, because futures are usually multiway
markets. There are two main features of multiway markets that pull in
different directions for how attractive they are. The first feature is that these markets are usually set to hold a
substantially higher percentage than a tw

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Well, yeah. That’s because the guy is a $10 bettor, but through
the magic of parlay math, has managed to place a $25,000 bet on
the outcome of a single game.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That’s a whole lot of hold. So you should never bet into a
multiway market, right? End of chapter. No doubt you can see all the words further down the page, so
obviously there’s more to it. You’re only really exposed to that
big hold percentage if you bet in the dumbest way possible. For
example, say you build a bet chooser program that randomly
chooses bets from a multiway market with a frequency weighted
to the odds of the bet. It chooses the 2-to-1 option about a third
of the time and the 99-to-1 option about 1/100th of the time. That would be very dumb. If you did that, you’d lose that massive hold percentage over
time. So don’t do that. I know the random bet chooser thing was

172

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That’s a whole lot of hold. So you should never bet into a
multiway market, right?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
your plan going in, so feel free to thank me for warning you away
from that minefield. Okay, the hold is bad. But the saving grace is that multiway
markets are very hard for sportsbooks to price correctly. Also,
there’s usually not really a market maker for these markets that
gets copied. You’ve got books putting out their own multiway
and futures markets and then moving them on their own action. And that’s where the opportunities come in. Let’s take NCAA Football Championship futures as an
example. You’re a sportsbook and you want to offer these to your
customers. There are maybe a dozen teams that have a real shot
to win. And then another dozen or two that, if everything goes
perfect for them, can make the playoff and therefore theoretically
could win. You want to offer this ma

CURRENT SUMMARY:
your plan going in, so feel free to thank me for warning you away
from that minefield. Okay, the hold is bad.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That gives you plenty of margin for error on these
prices. From past years you know which teams are popular with your
customers, and since college allegiances basically stay the same
year after year, you can probably predict reasonably well the
action you’re likely to get on these futures. You start with the teams you know will get lots of action, and
you make sure they’re priced to give you a healthy edge on all of
them. How’s +200. Ohio State? +400. Oklahoma?
+600. Now you’ve got the rest of the teams with a shot to win,
but no particular fan base that’s likely to bet them hard. You draw
a little distribution curve of percentage winning chances for the
remaining teams that sums to give you the hold you want for the
market. Let’s say for simplicity you want these percentages to

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That gives you plenty of margin for error on these
prices. From past years you know which teams are popular with your
customers, and since college allegiances basically stay the same
year after year, you can probably predict reasonably well the
action you’re likely to get on these futures.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
173
popular teams outside of this 100%, adding all the teams’ breakeven percentages together at the end will give you well over 100%. This is what gives the book a hold in the market.)
You have to distribute this 100% over the remaining one
hundred-something teams. Maybe you lump sixty no-hoper teams
together, call them The Field, and price them at 4%. Then you
draw a curve with the other 96% and distribute it to the rest of
the teams. The best team out of this maybe gets 8%, then then
next team 7%, then the next team 6%, and a couple 5s and a lot
of 4s and 3s and 2s and 1s and add it all up and you’re done. This is simple enough. And it works for the sportsbook,
because they know what teams they’re going to get bet, and
they’ve made sure they like the prices they’re offering on

CURRENT SUMMARY:
173
popular teams outside of this 100%, adding all the teams’ breakeven percentages together at the end will give you well over 100%. This is what gives the book a hold in the market.)
You have to distribute this 100% over the remaining one
hundred-something teams.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But lurking in there are those maybe two dozen teams with an
outside shot to win, but that the book really didn’t spend much
effort trying to get the price correct for. Maybe they slipped up and accidentally put a 1% on one of
those teams. Or even a 0.5%. That might be worth a bet. Or maybe one of the teams the book knows will get a lot of
action is way overrated. Like say Oklahoma is a perennial betting
favorite, but they’re primed for a down year. You know TCU
looks particularly good and is more likely to win that conference. But they got pushed into the back end of the curve and received
only a 3% price. Here is the core multiway market idea. The math of the hold
makes it impossible to find lots of good bets in one of these
markets. But the difficulty in pricing all those optio

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But lurking in there are those maybe two dozen teams with an
outside shot to win, but that the book really didn’t spend much
effort trying to get the price correct for. Maybe they slipped up and accidentally put a 1% on one of
those teams.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
a single week of results has a massive impact on the chances of
every team. Say TCU plays a key game in Week 3 of the season and wins
handily. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has played easy opponents so far. Because TCU passed a key obstacle already on their path to win
the conference (and therefore make the playoffs), theoretically
their futures price should go up considerably. But this may escape
notice because Oklahoma hasn’t lost yet. Or even if the employees at the sportsbook are savvy to TCU
and give them a bump, it’s very difficult for them to keep track of
all hundred-plus teams and every single week accurately assess the
impact of the last week of results on each team’s championship
chances. And then there’s the problem of what to do when someone
bets and you need to move a line. S

CURRENT SUMMARY:
a single week of results has a massive impact on the chances of
every team. Say TCU plays a key game in Week 3 of the season and wins
handily.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's break this down step by step. The user is asking me to act as an expert researcher by refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on a provided excerpt. They want the


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That’s a big move. How do you move
the rest of the teams in response? Well, one thing you can do is just not move the rest of the
teams. That doesn’t open any new vulnerabilities, but it increases
the hold on the market. This solution is easy for the sportsbook,
sucks for their customers, and degenerates into absurdity if
maintained all season long. By playoff time every team would
be -300. To keep a reasonable futures market, if you want to add 11%
to Oklahoma’s break-even chances, you’ve got to take that 11%
from other teams. You have to make some teams cheaper and
give them better odds. But which teams to give better odds? It’s tricky to do it “right.”
You can’t just subtract the same amount from every other team—

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That’s a big move. How do you move
the rest of the teams in response?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm faced with a query about refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The user has provided an excerpt from the document, and I need to extract the most important information,


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
175
that’s too simplistic and if you do it that way, over time you’re
guaranteed to start offering some very good bets. To get it right you have to unwind the logic of it. If Oklahoma
is more likely to win the championship, that means they’re more
likely to win the remaining games on their schedule. So the
opposing teams on the schedule are obvious targets for lowering. Other teams in the conference even if not on the schedule are
also likely targets. Another target might be a top team in a different conference
that might match up poorly against Oklahoma in a theoretical
playoff game. That’s starting to get in the weeds, though. The bottom line is that it is not remotely obvious exactly how
to distribute these 11% among the remaining teams once you give
it to Oklahoma. Sportsbook

CURRENT SUMMARY:
175
that’s too simplistic and if you do it that way, over time you’re
guaranteed to start offering some very good bets. To get it right you have to unwind the logic of it.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Of course the sportsbook doesn’t have to do this perfectly to
make money on the futures. They just have to maintain the prices
well on the teams most of their customers are betting. The market
hold gives them enough cushion on the rest so they won’t get
burned badly on a few bad numbers. This same logic applies to nearly every multiway and futures
market. The overall hold on the market will be very high. The
most popular choices will often be very bad bets. It’s difficult for
the sportsbook to keep the odds on all 50+ options correctly
priced as the season progresses, or as new information comes in. For the most part they don’t even try because they don’t have to. If they get a few key teams right, they’ll make their money. That means that you can break down these markets logically

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Of course the sportsbook doesn’t have to do this perfectly to
make money on the futures. They just have to maintain the prices
well on the teams most of their customers are betting.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The first thing you should do when you look at multiway markets
is to reframe them as a series of normal two-way markets. If
Oklahoma is listed at +600, then the other side of the two-way
Oklahoma market would be Anyone-But-Oklahoma at -600. This theoretical Anyone-But bet will usually be ridiculously
good. But sometimes it won’t be, and those are the options to pay
more attention to. Some ambitious sportsbooks will offer the two-way market,
especially on the handful of most likely options in the field. Alabama
+200/Anyone-But-Alabama
-280. Oklahoma
+600/Anyone-But-Oklahoma -800. Doing this helps them to
price the entire multiway market more accurately, because now
they can get punished if they offer Anyone-But bets that are too
generous.
🏈🏈
“The Field” is a key option in man

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The first thing you should do when you look at multiway markets
is to reframe them as a series of normal two-way markets. If
Oklahoma is listed at +600, then the other side of the two-way
Oklahoma market would be Anyone-But-Oklahoma at -600.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
First,
before you even think about betting into a multiway market, make
sure either every possible outcome is a listed option, or there is a
The Field option listed. If there are unlisted possible winners with
no Field, the effective hold on the market often becomes
enormous due to the chance that the book wins every single bet. When there is a Field option, it’s often either a terrible bet or
an amazing bet. The tail of a distribution (i.e., the large number
of low and very low probability outcomes) is notoriously difficult

CURRENT SUMMARY:
First,
before you even think about betting into a multiway market, make
sure either every possible outcome is a listed option, or there is a
The Field option listed. If there are unlisted possible winners with
no Field, the effective hold on the market often becomes
enormous due to the chance that the book wins every single bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
177
to price correctly. This is true in far more liquid and efficient
markets than sports like options markets and other major
financial markets. In multiway sports markets, much of the tail is often priced
into one option, The Field. Outright markets are an important part of betting golf. An
outright market means betting who will win this week’s
tournament. PGA tournaments will often have starting fields of over 100
golfers. An outright market will often list only 50 or sometimes
as few as 40 of these runners. The rest of them will get gobbled
up in The Field. There is plenty of volatility in a few rounds of golf. Furthermore, whichever sportsbook employee authored the
outright list this week could easily have overlooked a couple key
golfers who may not have had the best result

CURRENT SUMMARY:
177
to price correctly. This is true in far more liquid and efficient
markets than sports like options markets and other major
financial markets.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Or they may have overlooked a new
golfer or one coming over from a different tour. A few key
omissions from the listed runners can change the value of a Field
bet substantially—and whoever made the market might not have
noticed. If you do make a Field bet, make sure you document in some
way every single listed runner in the market at the time you bet it. Take screenshots. Take the prop sheet. Because your ticket will
probably just say “The Field” and if there’s a dispute about who
is in it you want some documentation.
🏈🏈
Sometimes the distribution tails won’t be listed as “The Field,”
but you will find other options in multiway markets that serve the

178

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Or they may have overlooked a new
golfer or one coming over from a different tour. A few key
omissions from the listed runners can change the value of a Field
bet substantially—and whoever made the market might not have
noticed.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
I remember a prop I saw a few years back about the
MLB home run leader. The prop was “How many home runs will
be hit this season by the player who leads the league?” The market
listed every possible option from 31 to 49 separately. (All of these
bets were horrendous.) Then it listed “30 or less” as an option
(hasn’t happened since World War II). Then it listed “50 or more” as an option. Which happens with
some frequency. The prop sheet listed it at +600 and it was +500
by the time I saw it. I think it’s a strong bet at either price. At the very least it’s a clear example of a mispriced tail, as if
that bet had been priced at the same hold percentage as the rest
of the market, something more like +150 would have been the
offer. The +600 opener was clearly just a mistake. The bet l

CURRENT SUMMARY:
I remember a prop I saw a few years back about the
MLB home run leader. The prop was “How many home runs will
be hit this season by the player who leads the league?” The market
listed every possible option from 31 to 49 separately.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The bet lost that year, and when I looked for it at the same
book the next year, whoever made the prop had fixed it. Oh well.
🏈🏈
A quick method to estimate how much hold there is in a multiway
market is to convert all the odds to break-even percentages and
add them up. A no hold market would add up to 100%. Markets
with hold in them add up to more than 100%. You’ll frequently find multiway markets that add up to 150%
or more. That’s a lot of hold. But, again, such a market can still
be attractive despite the hold if there are many runners, because
it’s very difficult to price all the runners correctly (and maintain
correct pricing after people bet into the market and while the
market is in-progress) with respect to one another.
🏈🏈

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The bet lost that year, and when I looked for it at the same
book the next year, whoever made the prop had fixed it. 🏈🏈
A quick method to estimate how much hold there is in a multiway
market is to convert all the odds to break-even percentages and
add them up.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
179
With the last point in mind, pay special attention to multiway
markets offered in-play. An example of a market like this would
be a prop bet offered during NFL and college football games.
“Will the result of the current drive be a TD, FG, punt, or
turnover/downs/safety?” with individual prices on each option. The correct pricing for this prop changes dramatically based
the game situation—and it can also change substantially based on
the coaching decision tendencies made by the team on offense. Anyone offering a prop like this one in-play will put a very healthy
hold on it, but even so it’s nearly impossible for an algorithm to
price it well enough to prevent a knowledgeable NFL bettor who
is watching the game from finding good bets here and there.
🏈🏈
Futures markets are a g

CURRENT SUMMARY:
179
With the last point in mind, pay special attention to multiway
markets offered in-play. An example of a market like this would
be a prop bet offered during NFL and college football games.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Let’s
say you wanted to attack MLB futures. I would recommend
opening many different sportsbook accounts and then comparing
the futures pricing on each team in each betting market (MLB
Championship, AL/NL Pennant, Division winners, even player
award futures like MVP, Cy Young, ROY) between sportsbooks. Find the best prices for each runner across all the sportsbooks
you have access to. Then start looking for pricing weaknesses. Did one team just
win 10 games in a row? It’s possible one or two sportsbooks on
your list didn’t update their futures markets during that run, and
you’ll find good bets on that team. Same for the player markets. The players who get off to hot April starts get a lot of press, but
say someone goes on a real run after Memorial Day. You might
find that player

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Let’s
say you wanted to attack MLB futures. I would recommend
opening many different sportsbook accounts and then comparing
the futures pricing on each team in each betting market (MLB
Championship, AL/NL Pennant, Division winners, even player
award futures like MVP, Cy Young, ROY) between sportsbooks.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
while due to the hot streak he’s sitting just off the league leaders
in the relevant hitting categories. Follow trade news in July. Teams that are trading for win-now
talent at the trade deadline could be underpriced. The great thing about a sport like baseball is there’s always
something happening, and sometimes hot streaks fly under the
radar, especially after the football hype begins. If you check those
futures markets regularly throughout the season and pick off the
mistakes, by the end of the season you can have a strong portfolio
of futures bets that give you many ways to come out ahead. Angles

The derivative example I introduced earlier of the first inning bet
with the opener pitcher and the Murderers’ Row of lefties at
Yankee Stadium was our first exposure to an angle.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
while due to the hot streak he’s sitting just off the league leaders
in the relevant hitting categories. Follow trade news in July.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Predictable
2. Quantifiable
3. Unaccounted for in the line
You can make a lot of money betting angles, but the angle
must meet all three qualifications. Winning angles are
everywhere—but angles that you can bet month after month, year
after year for profit in big, liquid markets are extremely hard to
find. Most angles work for relatively small bets at retail books with
un-picked-through lines. This book focuses on those easier to find, smaller value angles. Once you build a track record finding and exploiting those, maybe
start digging to find the higher valued ones that work in tougher,
deeper markets. Let’s start with the last qualification and work backward. Your
angle must be unaccounted for in the line. I’ve invested a lot of words in this book explaining where lines
come

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Predictable
2. Quantifiable
3.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
them “strong” (a lot of smart people betting into them) or “weak”
(an unmoved or un-bet line made up by a sportsbook). That’s
because before you can know if any bet you make is good, you
need as good an idea as possible about where the line came from. It’s usually not too hard to figure out whether your angle is
accounted for in a weak line. You watch the market for a while
and reverse engineer how they make the lines. Usually it will be a
very simple system. The key is that the line will represent a league average
prediction for the market in question. And—more importantly—
it will represent a backward-looking league average prediction. That is, the league average will be built (one way or another) by
looking at past years’ data. If something about the game has
changed and that w

CURRENT SUMMARY:
them “strong” (a lot of smart people betting into them) or “weak”
(an unmoved or un-bet line made up by a sportsbook). That’s
because before you can know if any bet you make is good, you
need as good an idea as possible about where the line came from.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Here’s an example. Say you’re looking at a first quarter total
for an NFL game. Let’s say the sportsbook you’re looking at
opens the quarters markets on Saturday, a day before the game
starts. They probably just take the market game total at that time
and plug it into a formula to make the first quarter total. If the market game total moves after they open the first
quarter market, they may or may not adjust the first quarter price. That’s something to look for. Obviously it’s better for you if they
set it and forget it on that first quarter market. If possible, try to
find a book that neglects its derivative markets after opening
them. Let’s say the method they used to make the first quarter totals
was to look at all NFL games from 2005-2014 and group them by
similar game totals

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Here’s an example. Say you’re looking at a first quarter total
for an NFL game.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
for any game with a game total between 40 and 42. And so on,
for every game on the schedule. Of course you can’t know exactly how they built their chart
for making first quarter totals. All you can do is look at the
markets as the sportsbook posts them and make note of what
prices they open. And you can look at the same market at other sportsbooks and
look for pricing discrepancies. It’s always a good sign when
sportsbooks have substantially varying prices on the same market. It means that the market isn’t efficient or well picked-through,
and also that if you find a good angle, you can bet your overs at
the book with the lowest number and your unders at the book
with the highest number, effectively cutting the hold you are
playing into. So let’s go back to the NFL. A trend in re

CURRENT SUMMARY:
for any game with a game total between 40 and 42. And so on,
for every game on the schedule.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A trend in recent years—and here
I mean about 2017 and beyond—is that teams are becoming
better at scoring points in the second half of the game. This
comes from a few things that all work in the same direction. Offenses when down two or more scores are becoming better
at passing quickly and effectively down the field. Coaches are
making more aggressive decisions to go for it on fourth down
than they did in the past. Teams with the lead aren’t playing quite
as conservatively—they open up the field more often and try
more often to ice games with one more touchdown.

184

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A trend in recent years—and here
I mean about 2017 and beyond—is that teams are becoming
better at scoring points in the second half of the game. This
comes from a few things that all work in the same direction.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
There are other smaller changes that affect this trend, but I
don’t want to go too far into the weeds on NFL scoring trends. The main idea is that the sport—any sport—is always evolving. Strategies change over time. What was average ten years ago may
no longer be average. But derivative pricing is almost always based on what was
average ten years ago (metaphorically for sure, and often also
literally). Okay, let’s back up. I have first quarter NFL totals at a
sportsbook that appear un-picked through, and it’s obvious that
the opening price is just tied to the game total when they open
the market. Also we’ve observed that NFL second half scoring is
more efficient than it used to be. So what’s the angle? The angle is to bet under the first quarter totals. Five years ago, before this

CURRENT SUMMARY:
There are other smaller changes that affect this trend, but I
don’t want to go too far into the weeds on NFL scoring trends. The main idea is that the sport—any sport—is always evolving.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Five years ago, before this second half efficiency trend kicked
in, scoring was more evenly distributed between first and second
half. A game total of, say, 53.5 meant X scoring in the first half,
and Y scoring in the second half. Today, the same 53.5 total means more scoring in the second
half, which by definition means less in the first half. Furthermore,
the efficiency trend affected the second quarter more than the
first, so if a sportsbook simply plugs their 53.5 game total into
their chart made from 2005-2014 data, they will get back a total
that reflects too much scoring in the first quarter. This angle is predictable. It applies to essentially every NFL
game. It is quantifiable. You can quantify it by making your own
charts exactly the way I describe the sportsbook making

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Five years ago, before this second half efficiency trend kicked
in, scoring was more evenly distributed between first and second
half. A game total of, say, 53.5 meant X scoring in the first half,
and Y scoring in the second half.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
185
first quarter total moves as you start at the old games and move
to the newest games. Sports data is always a short sample, so you have to read
between the lines a little bit. But if you use the method I describe,
you can estimate how much the relationship between the game
total and the first quarter total has changed over time. And then
you can (very carefully) project this change into the future—being
quick to revise your projection if you begin to watch new games
and see the trend toward more efficiency later in the game stall
out or reverse. And if you watch them put up enough lines, you can determine
whether you think this trend is being accounted for in the line. Again, having several books with the same market can help
here. Let’s say you find two books that post a fi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
185
first quarter total moves as you start at the old games and move
to the newest games. Sports data is always a short sample, so you have to read
between the lines a little bit.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's try to figure out what the user is asking for here. So, the user provided a conversation history where they were getting help refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Ea


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Because it’s common to score exactly 10 points in the first
quarter, these are very different lines. Without an angle, you
would know at least one of these must be a bad line, but you
wouldn’t have a good idea which one. But our angle says that betting under in first quarters is likely
good, so the right idea would be to bet the u10.5 -110 and leave
the market at Book A alone. I want to stress that your takeaway so far should not be,
“Betting NFL first quarter unders is good!” That’s not what I’m

186

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Because it’s common to score exactly 10 points in the first
quarter, these are very different lines. Without an angle, you
would know at least one of these must be a bad line, but you
wouldn’t have a good idea which one.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
saying at all. By the time you read this, the trend could be over. The charts used to make openers will surely be updated. (In fact,
I’ve bet many NFL first quarter overs despite this one angle.)
Blindly betting any angle will lose. That’s really the point. Angles are great. The bread and butter
of winning at sports betting. But if you want to bet the angle
profitably, it has to be predictable, quantifiable, and not
accounted for in the line. You can’t know if it’s accounted for in
the line unless you spend the time to research how the lines get
made, and how (or if) they get moved. And the quantifiable size of the angle has to overcome the
hold. It does you little good to recognize an angle that’s worth
half a percent went the market has 4% hold. Okay, let’s return to our NFL sec

CURRENT SUMMARY:
saying at all. By the time you read this, the trend could be over.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this query. The user is asking me to extract the most important information from a given sports betting excerpt. They've provided a history of similar requests, each time with a


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If the difference is really that NFL teams are more efficient
now in the second half than they used to be, why are we looking
at first quarter bets? Why not just bet under in the first half and
over in the second half? NFL first halves are a major market that’s dealt by market
making books. They take substantial limits from anyone, and they
move the number on action. By the time your retail book posts a first half number, the
Black Friday frenzy over the opening line at the market making
book has already happened. At least someone who participates in
this scrum will tend to know about nearly any NFL angle you
might think of. Let’s say the employees at the market making book have never
watched an NFL game. They don’t know about efficiency trends,
travel schedules, circadian rhyth

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If the difference is really that NFL teams are more efficient
now in the second half than they used to be, why are we looking
at first quarter bets? Why not just bet under in the first half and
over in the second half?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
187
subtracting and adding these ratings. Then they open the first half
by looking the opening spread and total up on a chart they made
ten years ago. These numbers will be okay for some games. For other games,
they’ll be pretty far off. Either way, the vultures will descend
immediately and madly jam in $250 bets. Within minutes, all the
well-known angles that apply to any game will be in the lines. The guy who likes to bet the travel schedule angle will jam in
his travel bets. The guy who likes to bet injury angles will jam in
his injury bets. The guy who likes to bet efficiency trend angles
will jam in his first half bets. From that point on, the angle will be accounted for in the line. This is a very efficient process for the market making book,
because often the people who be

CURRENT SUMMARY:
187
subtracting and adding these ratings. Then they open the first half
by looking the opening spread and total up on a chart they made
ten years ago.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But whether the vultures win over time or not is
barely relevant to you. These folks are moving the lines in the
right direction to account for all these little angles. If three days later you trot out your “efficiency trends” angle
on the first half line, you are very late to the party. The same can be said for the second half line as well. The way
second halves work today is that an opener is posted at a market
making book a few seconds after the first half ends. Immediately,
within seconds, anyone with an applicable angle starts jamming
in bets. The lines jerk back and forth to the bets. Within the first
minute, the lines begin to settle. It is only at that point that retail books open their halftime
markets. Watch next time. Time how long it takes between when
you see the hal

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But whether the vultures win over time or not is
barely relevant to you. These folks are moving the lines in the
right direction to account for all these little angles.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
is watching the market maker and letting the frenzy play out. Once things seem settled, then they post the lines. This doesn’t mean that halftime markets don’t move after
retail books post—they do all the time. But it does mean that you
absolutely will not make money trying to bet cheap, well-known
angles into retail sportsbooks’ second half markets. Your angle is
accounted for in the lines. The do’s and don’ts of angle betting. Do
•
Make sure your angle is predictable, quantifiable, and not
accounted for in the line
•
Target the obscure and exotic markets that the retail
sportsbook makes to fill out their menu
•
Watch your markets over time to reverse engineer the
sportsbook’s process for posting the market and making the
opener
•
Make sure you’re either betting the opener

CURRENT SUMMARY:
is watching the market maker and letting the frenzy play out. Once things seem settled, then they post the lines.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The do’s and don’ts of angle betting. Do
•
Make sure your angle is predictable, quantifiable, and not
accounted for in the line
•
Target the obscure and exotic markets that the retail
sportsbook makes to fill out their menu
•
Watch your markets over time to reverse engineer the
sportsbook’s process for posting the market and making the
opener
•
Make sure you’re either betting the opener or that no one
else is consistently moving your markets before you hit them
•
Compare prices on your markets between sportsbooks
and prefer betting into markets that have bigger price
differences from book to book
•
Keep records and watch out for your angle losing
profitability. All angles fade over time as other bettors discover
the angles and books develop better processes to make the

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The do’s and don’ts of angle betting. Do
•
Make sure your angle is predictable, quantifiable, and not
accounted for in the line
•
Target the obscure and exotic markets that the retail
sportsbook makes to fill out their menu
•
Watch your markets over time to reverse engineer the
sportsbook’s process for posting the market and making the
opener
•
Make sure you’re either betting the opene

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
189
•
Bet angles into major, liquid markets made by a market
maker. Unless you found a unicorn, your angle is almost
certainly at least partially accounted for in these lines.
•
Bet into a large hold (more than about 5%, with each
percent beyond that being considerably worse). Theoretically
you can make money betting into 8% markets, but you need to
have the quantifiable part of your angle absolutely nailed. Alternatively, you can bet into an 8% market at one sportsbook
if you find lines at other books that are off by enough to bring
the combined hold (betting the good price at each place) down
well below 4%.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
189
•
Bet angles into major, liquid markets made by a market
maker. Unless you found a unicorn, your angle is almost
certainly at least partially accounted for in these lines.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
This one is a little nuanced. Angles are real, and finding them is
one of the best ways to make money betting sports. What is an angle? It’s a relevant, quantifiable factor that isn’t
priced into the market. Because finding a great angle can be as good as gold, people
are constantly sifting through the data trying to find one. The things people find when they sift are called “trends.”
You’ve probably heard these before.
“In games coming off a non-conference loss where an SEC
team is a 14-point or greater favorite, they are 22-and-9 against
the spread.”
That’s a trend. Don’t bet that. It has absolutely zero predictive
value. You will lose the hold going forward if you take that trend
at face value and start betting these SEC favorites.

190

CURRENT SUMMARY:
This one is a little nuanced. Angles are real, and finding them is
one of the best ways to make money betting sports.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Here’s another trend.
“In games where the prevailing wind speed is 20 miles-perhour or greater, the under is 37-and-21.”
That’s an angle. Bet that—until it gets priced into the market,
that is. I said this point is a bit nuanced. There’s no bright line
between an observation that’s a garbage, non-predictive trend and
a genuine, potentially valuable angle. As I said, genuine angles are often found when sifting through
all the trends. Unfortunately, I can’t give you a hard-and-fast rule
for telling when a trend is something that might have value. But
here are the two main things to look for. First, look for a realistic reason. Look at the first trend. Nonconference. SEC. 14-point favorite. That’s four constraints. What do any of those have to do with one another? What’s
special abou

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Here’s another trend. “In games where the prevailing wind speed is 20 miles-perhour or greater, the under is 37-and-21.”
That’s an angle.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Why
non-conference? If you have an active imagination, you may be able to tell
yourself a story about what these four things have in common
and what on-the-field effect you’re selecting for when you look at
these teams. But let’s be real. This is a Mad Libs betting theory. The second trend about the wind is so much more realistic. Wind makes it harder to complete passes and kick field goals. That means fewer points. Which means more unders as long as
the effect isn’t already priced into the market. Obviously you have to use your judgment about what’s
realistic or not. Remember that athletes are humans and stuff that
affects human health and performance like travel, sleep, diet,
injury, illness, and so on all tend to matter and have real effects.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Why
non-conference? If you have an active imagination, you may be able to tell
yourself a story about what these four things have in common
and what on-the-field effect you’re selecting for when you look at
these teams.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
191
Weather has real effects. Coaching has real effects. Umpiring and
refereeing have real effects. You get into more dangerous territory when you try to
determine how much effort a team of players will or won’t put
forth in a game. Teams are composed of many players who have
various personalities. It’s an oversimplification to claim that a
53-player NFL football team “won’t be up” for a game—how the
heck would you know that? And even if you’re correct about
some of the players, are they key players? How much is it worth? Good angles (and therefore trends) tend to be realistic, and
they also cut only one direction. No one ever played better
because they flew across the country and got four hours of sleep
the night before the game. No one ever kicked field goals better
in 30 mil

CURRENT SUMMARY:
191
Weather has real effects. Coaching has real effects.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Whereas getting beaten the week before might cause a letdown
for some players but serve as extra motivation for others. In
general, stay away from trends that can cut both ways like this. The other important characteristic of a good trend is that it
glides. If you expect an effect in 30 mile-per-hour wind, then you
should also see it in 15 mile-per-hour wind—just less. If you expect a team that’s a 14-point favorite to behave one
way, you should also see it in 17- and 10-point favorites—perhaps
to a different degree. If you expect a team that’s travelled 3000 miles to suffer, then
you should also expect it of a team that’s travelled 2500 miles—
again, perhaps just to a lesser degree. This is an important test of your trend. If it glides, that is if
you see the effect fall away slow

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Whereas getting beaten the week before might cause a letdown
for some players but serve as extra motivation for others. In
general, stay away from trends that can cut both ways like this.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Otherwise—and this will be true of almost every trend you
find—you’re just looking at pure noise with no predictive value,
and if you bet it, you will lose your money. In-Play Betting

On the industry side, in-play betting gets an enormous amount of
hype. For a sportsbook operator, it offers a tantalizing
proposition. Without in-play betting, customers can maybe make
a point spread bet or a total bet on a game, maybe a prop or two,
and that’s about it. So a max of four bets per game and usually
more like one or two. With in-play betting, customers can potentially make bets all
game long. This timeout betting a moneyline. The next timeout
betting a total. The next betting a couple props. Maybe ten or
more bets through the whole game. In-play betting likely gets the sports league

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Otherwise—and this will be true of almost every trend you
find—you’re just looking at pure noise with no predictive value,
and if you bet it, you will lose your money. In-Play Betting

On the industry side, in-play betting gets an enormous amount of
hype.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
It’s a big one. And it should also be
a familiar one by now. Where do the lines come from? Pregame lines come from price discovery at a market making
book. But in game, there’s no time for price discovery. A timeout
lasts maybe two minutes. In many ways, each timeout is the same
as a brand-new opening line. And as different sportsbooks get
these in-play opening lines from different sources, you will see a
variety of lines. Some scalps, profitable to bet both sides, for sure.

194

CURRENT SUMMARY:
It’s a big one. And it should also be
a familiar one by now.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
And many, many instances of very small hold. You will often be
able to create synthetic markets with less than 1% hold between
two sportsbooks on their in-play lines. These opening lines are difficult to make. It’s hard enough
when the book is just trying to put up a moneyline. Say the
Browns are playing at the Patriots, and three minutes into the
second quarter, the Browns are up 14 to 3. But the Pats were
10.5-point favorites pregame with a 52.5 total. Quick, what percentage of the time will the Pats come back
and win? The sportsbook has two seconds to get a line up. And
it needs to be within about 2% of the “right” answer or else the
line will offer customers a good bet on one side or the other. It’s not an easy problem. Fortunately for you, the bettor, it’s
not your problem.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
And many, many instances of very small hold. You will often be
able to create synthetic markets with less than 1% hold between
two sportsbooks on their in-play lines.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
195
They take as an input the game state. In a football game, for
example, that means the score, the time, who has the ball, the yard
line, down and distance, maybe timeouts. Then they combine that
game state information with information about how good each
team is—likely the pregame spread and total at market close. Perhaps they use other information as well. If they have access to
real-time betting information, for example, they likely fold that in
as well. Then using those inputs, they have some sort of algorithm that
converts those inputs to a betting line. Or in the case of the ones
who offer several dozen markets at once, many betting lines. The betting lines then get transmitted to the sportsbook
operator, who can either post the lines unchanged, or can do
whatever they l

CURRENT SUMMARY:
195
They take as an input the game state. In a football game, for
example, that means the score, the time, who has the ball, the yard
line, down and distance, maybe timeouts.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The betting lines then get transmitted to the sportsbook
operator, who can either post the lines unchanged, or can do
whatever they like to the supplied lines before they post them for
customers to bet. And, again, while I can’t speak to the internal operations at any
of the third-party vendors currently in use at American
sportsbooks, I do know that the industry currently places an
emphasis on automating this process. As much as possible,
operators (and likely the vendors as well) would like to take
humans out of the equation to make the process cheaper, faster,
more seamless.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The betting lines then get transmitted to the sportsbook
operator, who can either post the lines unchanged, or can do
whatever they like to the supplied lines before they post them for
customers to bet. And, again, while I can’t speak to the internal operations at any
of the third-party vendors currently in use at American
sportsbooks, I do know that the industry currently places an
emphasis

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
First, the lines are utterly dependent upon having accurate,
real-time game state information. If the algorithm gets told the
wrong score, it’s gonna make the wrong line. This happens more than you might think. In football, for
example, the model inputs tend to get the score wrong when
something a little weird happens. A team misses an extra point. A
team goes for two instead of kicking. A team kicks a field goal,
but then it comes off the board due to a penalty. There’s a safety. After all, whatever game state information is baked into the
lines ultimately comes from a person watching the game
somewhere and typing it in. People make mistakes. You can put
error checking at points in the chain there—and for sure there is
error checking—but mistakes get through. In football they al

CURRENT SUMMARY:
First, the lines are utterly dependent upon having accurate,
real-time game state information. If the algorithm gets told the
wrong score, it’s gonna make the wrong line.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
In football they also often get the yard lines wrong. It’s
common for the side of the field to get flipped, so they make the
line as if the ball were at a team’s own 20-yard line, but actually
they’re on their opponent’s 20. Or they get the yard line wrong because they make the line as
if the result of the play counted, but instead there was a
(significant) penalty. In basketball, it’s common for them to have the score wrong
when they make a line. These mistakes are all more likely to happen for lower profile
games. You can probably figure out if the game you’re watching
(and betting) is likely to have a modest or high error rate on the
basic game state. Over time I expect these mistakes to become less frequent. Leagues understand that their live, real-time data could be very
val

CURRENT SUMMARY:
In football they also often get the yard lines wrong. It’s
common for the side of the field to get flipped, so they make the
line as if the ball were at a team’s own 20-yard line, but actually
they’re on their opponent’s 20.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
197
The second mistake, failing to account for an important gamespecific factor, however, will be much harder for leagues,
vendors, and operators to purge from their lines. And, ironically,
the more everyone wants to automate in-play betting, the more
of these types of mistakes you are likely to see. In baseball, it matters who is pitching. Here’s an example of how an in-play data feed treated an MLB
game in 2018. On July 11, 2018, the Mets hosted the Phillies. Pregame, the Mets closed at around 58% favorites at major
market makers. Their hitting was not so great, but in this game
they had the eventual Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom starting,
which is why they were the favorite. The game remained 0-0 through the end of the ninth inning,
with deGrom pitching eight stellar innings. At

CURRENT SUMMARY:
197
The second mistake, failing to account for an important gamespecific factor, however, will be much harder for leagues,
vendors, and operators to purge from their lines. And, ironically,
the more everyone wants to automate in-play betting, the more
of these types of mistakes you are likely to see.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Logically, this makes no sense. The Mets were only 58%
favorites pregame because they were expected to get seven or so
great innings out of the likely best pitcher in baseball. Otherwise
they wouldn’t have been favorites at all. Now he’s out of the game, the game is tied and in extras. Obviously the Mets shouldn’t still be 58% favorites. If you
happened to be watching that game and caught the in-play
markets at the right time, you could have easily bagged a Phillies
+130 or +135 bet that was clearly good. A bet which would have
lost, by the way, as the Mets ended up winning 3-0 after Brandon
Nimmo hit a walk-off three-run home run in the tenth. If you know anything about baseball, this example is obvious. And the more you know about baseball, the more of these little
quirks you wi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Logically, this makes no sense. The Mets were only 58%
favorites pregame because they were expected to get seven or so
great innings out of the likely best pitcher in baseball.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The same sort of things pop up in all sports. In-game injuries
present opportunities like these—it’s hard for a model to
incorporate real-time injury information. In-game strategy changes also. The NHL is a notoriously
difficult sport to model in-game. There’s not much data for a
model to chew on—mostly just the score and time remaining—
but there’s so much more about the game that you can see with
your eyes. Leagues like the NHL are trying to bridge this gap by creating
more granular, real-time player data by using wearable
technologies. I think this will be something to watch going
forward. But it’s one thing to have a zillion data points on where
every player has been over the last five minutes. It’s another
entirely to turn that into an estimated game win percentage that
peo

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The same sort of things pop up in all sports. In-game injuries
present opportunities like these—it’s hard for a model to
incorporate real-time injury information.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
It’s far from a sure thing the models will be
able to keep up with a trained human eye in hockey any time soon. The third mistake class is more profound and harder for
sportsbooks to root out of their systems. It’s basically a “the math
deep inside the system is wrong” error. Sportsbooks can compensate for the first two error types. They can do double and triple and quadruple error checking on
their game state information. They can hire people who know
sports and know their models and can estimate how to move lines
based on injuries or pitching changes or freak weather. But if there’s broken math in the algorithm itself, there’s not
much anyone can do about that except to do a deep dive and
figure out what’s wrong. And to do that they’d have to figure out something was wrong
in th

CURRENT SUMMARY:
It’s far from a sure thing the models will be
able to keep up with a trained human eye in hockey any time soon. The third mistake class is more profound and harder for
sportsbooks to root out of their systems.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
In 2019, mistakes of all three types are common in in-play feeds
for the major American sports. If the idea of watching lots of
sports with your sportsbook’s in-play betting menu open appeals
to you, you should probably learn to identify these mistakes so
you can bet them. I have the benefit of having built in-play models for all the
major American sports. Mistakes of all three types just pop out at
you when you have your own model. “Oh, they gave the Eagles
an extra point even though they missed the kick.” “Oh, they’re
pricing this like deGrom Is still pitching.” “The totals ride high at
this point in every game, likely because they’re doing this math
wrong.”
It’s a huge investment of time and resources to build models,
so I’m not suggesting to do that. Instead, I recommend bu

CURRENT SUMMARY:
In 2019, mistakes of all three types are common in in-play feeds
for the major American sports. If the idea of watching lots of
sports with your sportsbook’s in-play betting menu open appeals
to you, you should probably learn to identify these mistakes so
you can bet them.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You want
to compare different models to each other. You want to compare
a model to itself at different points in the game. And you want to
compare different markets (like comparing a model’s moneyline
price to its point spread price). Do that, and the mistake prices
will begin to pop out at you. The easiest thing to do is to find two sportsbooks that are
clearly using two different pricing feeds. (Recall that there are only
a small handful of providers of these lines, so frequently two
sportsbooks will be using the same feed, perhaps with minor
tweaks on the operator’s end.)
Watch when the prices change. Watch when they go off the
board and come back. Watch what direction they move. If they’re

200

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You want
to compare different models to each other. You want to compare
a model to itself at different points in the game.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
mostly synchronized, it’s likely based off the same feed. Otherwise, you may have two different feeds. You’re most interested in timeouts when the feeds have
different prices. If they’re different enough, theoretically you
could scalp them (betting one side at one book and another at the
other to lock in a profit), but given the relatively low limits at most
of the books on their in-play markets, it’s likely not worth the
time if all you’re going to do is bet both sides. Instead, you want to try to figure out which price is “right”
and which is “wrong”—the wrong one often being an out-andout mistake. This is where tracking over time helps. Let’s say you’re
watching a football game, and one team has just kicked a field
goal with 6 minutes left in the first quarter. The in-game total

CURRENT SUMMARY:
mostly synchronized, it’s likely based off the same feed. Otherwise, you may have two different feeds.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
201
But in most scalp situations—and definitely in this one—
usually what’s going on is that one of the bets is a losing one, and
the other is a winning one that wins just a bit more than the losing
one loses. You’re better off if you can identify which bet is which
and only make the winning bet. You can use logic to figure out which of these two bets is likely
the one you want. Both books agreed the total should be 51.5
with 6 minutes to go in the first quarter. From that point on, only
“under” things happened. Three minutes ticked off the clock. And the ball went from a team’s 25-yard line (after the kickoff) to
a team’s 20-yard line (after the punt). We started with 51 minutes remaining in the game, and we
burned 3 of them plus put ourselves in a situation less likely to
gener

CURRENT SUMMARY:
201
But in most scalp situations—and definitely in this one—
usually what’s going on is that one of the bets is a losing one, and
the other is a winning one that wins just a bit more than the losing
one loses. You’re better off if you can identify which bet is which
and only make the winning bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
book with the 50.5 u+102 price says that chain of events costs
considerably less than 1 point (due to the plus price on the
under/minus price on the over). Which one makes more sense logically? It has to be the 2
points cost. There’s simply no way that burning 1/17th of the
remaining game and creating a worse scoring situation to boot
costs less than 1/50th of the total expected remaining scoring. You have to be a little careful with your logic in these
situations, because if you aren’t careful you could do some
oversimplified, bad math and assume betting under 49.5 is also
good. After all I burned 1/17th of the game, but only docked
1/25th of the total expected remaining scoring as a result.

exactly 50 at around 3.5%, so theore

CURRENT SUMMARY:
book with the 50.5 u+102 price says that chain of events costs
considerably less than 1 point (due to the plus price on the
under/minus price on the over). Which one makes more sense logically?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But moving the total by 2 points is actually about right for this
chain events, because football games feature more scoring in the
second and fourth quarters than in the first, so three minutes
burned in the first quarter isn’t as strong to the under as, say,
burning the last three minutes of the second quarter without a
score would be. Anyway, with that warning out of the way, it is safe to look at
that 50.5 +102 price and realize that it can’t possibly be right,
especially when the other book has 49.5 flat. Comparing prices sequentially throughout a game is the
strongest tool most bettors have to find mistakes in the in-play
pricing. The logic that connects the price at the last timeout to the
one at this timeout is mainly “what happened between then and
now, and how much shou

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But moving the total by 2 points is actually about right for this
chain events, because football games feature more scoring in the
second and fourth quarters than in the first, so three minutes
burned in the first quarter isn’t as strong to the under as, say,
burning the last three minutes of the second quarter without a
score would be. Anyway, with that warning out of the way, it is safe to

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The logic that connects the price at the last timeout to the
one at this timeout is mainly “what happened between then and
now, and how much should it affect the price?”
Again, this is a much stronger signal to bet when you can find
two books that disagree on the new price. If both books have a
similar number, but the number doesn’t make logical sense to
you, there’s a good chance you’re just missing something. Maybe
you broke the logic of the situation down incorrectly. Maybe you
missed a relevant factor that is accounted for in the line. Maybe
the entire betting universe is piling on one side, and that’s skewed
the market to one direction. Trying to fade the entire betting
universe (especially the smart folks in that universe) just for the
sake of fading it is a good way to l

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The logic that connects the price at the last timeout to the
one at this timeout is mainly “what happened between then and
now, and how much should it affect the price?”
Again, this is a much stronger signal to bet when you can find
two books that disagree on the new price. If both books have a
similar number, but the number doesn’t make logical sense to
you, there’s a good chance you’re jus

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Trying to fade the entire betting
universe (especially the smart folks in that universe) just for the
sake of fading it is a good way to lose. This isn’t to say you can’t be right, but I would stick primarily
to betting into disagreements until you get the hang of it.
🏈🏈
Basketball is a tough game for the in-play lines to track correctly. The pregame total (determined by the price discovery process at
a market maker) depends heavily on an expectation of how fast

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Trying to fade the entire betting
universe (especially the smart folks in that universe) just for the
sake of fading it is a good way to lose. This isn’t to say you can’t be right, but I would stick primarily
to betting into disagreements until you get the hang of it.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
203
each team will play. Small changes in average time per possession
can add up to a substantial change in the total, since there are so
many possessions in a basketball game. The observed pace of an in-progress basketball game predicts
the pace for the rest of the game—that is, if the pregame total
predicts a pace of X, but so far after the first quarter they are
going 8% faster than X, betting the over on the in-game total will
often be good. To do this right, you really should get some data and do some
math. Look at games by pregame total and then use the data to
pull out the implied pace of each total. (I.e., sort all the games by
total, separate them into similar-total buckets, and count
possessions per game for each bucket). Then you compare that
pace to the actual pace

CURRENT SUMMARY:
203
each team will play. Small changes in average time per possession
can add up to a substantial change in the total, since there are so
many possessions in a basketball game.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
As a sanity check, you’ll want to make sure the in-game line is
based on the pregame total and not an adjusted total. A good way
to do this if you don’t want to build a model is just to watch a lot
of games and write down the pregame total along with the ingame totals at various fixed points in the games. (Scheduled
timeouts are ideal.)
If the in-game totals are substantially different for similar
pregame totals, you’ll want to dig a little to figure out what factor
(including potentially observed game pace) might be added to the
algorithm to produce the totals you are seeing. Key players in early foul trouble also presents an in-play
betting opportunity. Foul trouble looms large in college
basketball. It would be a huge undertaking for an in-play odds
provider to properly evalu

CURRENT SUMMARY:
As a sanity check, you’ll want to make sure the in-game line is
based on the pregame total and not an adjusted total. A good way
to do this if you don’t want to build a model is just to watch a lot
of games and write down the pregame total along with the ingame totals at various fixed points in the games.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas