Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
No, it is not a good bet. Table 1 says you need to win 80.0 percent of the time to break even on bets you make at -400. You need to have
more than 80.0 percent chance of winning to have an edge. Your estimate of winning 75 percent of the time means the book has an edge over
you on that bet. Problem 8
A sportsbook offers a prop with -115 on one side and -115 on the other side. How does this compare with the normal -110 with regards to the
book’s expected win, in percent? At -110 you need 52.4 percent predictive accuracy to break even. At -115, table 1 says you need 53.5 percent predictive accuracy to break
even. At -110 on both teams, a sportsbook with balanced action earns $10 per $220 of action, or 4.5 percent. At -115 for both teams, a sportsbook with balanced action earns $15 per $230 o

CURRENT SUMMARY:
No, it is not a good bet. Table 1 says you need to win 80.0 percent of the time to break even on bets you make at -400.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand th


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
should round off the $295.64 to three digits, getting $296. If your -350 is right, the average $280 you invest in the Braves with Maddux will turn into $296. Dividing 296 by 280 yields 105.7 percent. You
have about a 5.7 percent edge on this bet. Problem 10
If I think the break-even point is a line of -350 on the Braves with Greg Maddux, and I want to invest my money only on bets on which I think
my edge is at least 10 percent, what is the worst line I should take? Table 1 again is the place to start. The win rate associated with a line of -350 is 77.8 percent winners. That 77.8 percent must cover both your wager and the 10 percent of your wager that you expect to gain. Thus that 77.8 percent must cover

CURRENT SUMMARY:
should round off the $295.64 to three digits, getting $296. If your -350 is right, the average $280 you invest in the Braves with Maddux will turn into $296.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Dividing 77.8 percent by 1.10 (which is 110 percent) yields 70.7 percent. That’s the break-even win rate you need in order to have an
expected result of getting your money back plus 10 percent. Table 1 also is the place to finish. For a break-even win rate of 70.7 percent, table 1 says you need bet terms between -239 and -245. Interpolation gives -241. In summary, if you think the line should be -350 and you want to earn 10 percent on your investment, you should hold out for a line of -241 or
better.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Dividing 77.8 percent by 1.10 (which is 110 percent) yields 70.7 percent. That’s the break-even win rate you need in order to have an
expected result of getting your money back plus 10 percent.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand th


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Betting lines on sports events are similar to the prices of common stocks. Both are set by the actions of buyers and sellers in a market. Finding profitable sports bets is similar to outperforming the stock market. (Outperforming means obtaining returns in excess of what the
market generally offers for the level of risk involved.)
To earn excess profits in the stock market, you must either have information that is not available to the general public, or you must have a
superior ability to process the information that is public. If you are trading stocks based on the same information that is available to other investors, and you do not have superior ability to figure out
how that information will cause stock prices to change, you are spinning your wheels. You will have some winners and you

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Betting lines on sports events are similar to the prices of common stocks. Both are set by the actions of buyers and sellers in a market.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The stock market has an upward drift over time. A stock price is more likely to go up than down (though sometimes that is hard to believe). If you stay invested in the stock market long enough, and if you avoid churning your portfolio so much that transaction fees eat up all your
profits, you will make money in the stock market. That is true even if your method of selecting stocks is attaching a copy of the Wall Street Journal
to your wall and throwing darts at it. There is no upward drift in bets on sports events. If you attach a list of all possible sports bets to your wall and throw darts at it to select the
games you will bet, you will lose over time. In order to make money betting on sports, you must either have information that is not being used by the betting public, or you must hav

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The stock market has an upward drift over time. A stock price is more likely to go up than down (though sometimes that is hard to believe).

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Best Simple Strategy
A lively topic of discussion on BJ21.com has been: What is the best simple strategy for betting sports? Suppose a person who knows nothing about sports is given a free bet on a game, and gets to select the team. Which is generally the better
choice, the favorite or the dog? Home team or visiting team? An easy answer is to bet a dog. The historical data show that betting dogs is superior to betting favorites. See for example the chapter in this
book on NFL results against the spread. Most bettors look for reasons to bet on a team, rather than for reasons to bet against a team. Most bettors
seem to back favorites. Bookmaker James Jeffries in his The Book on Bookies describes the betting preferences of his customers. Jeffries says
that his customers are all so solidly in

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Best Simple Strategy
A lively topic of discussion on BJ21.com has been: What is the best simple strategy for betting sports? Suppose a person who knows nothing about sports is given a free bet on a game, and gets to select the team.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A better answer might be to bet a home dog. In the NFL since 1985, all the excess wins enjoyed by dogs have gone to home dogs. Traveling
dogs have not accomplished excess wins, at least not in the NFL between 1985 and 2000. Over that sixteen year period, home dogs have
covered 52.7 percent of the time. Caution: That sample size is too small for the result to have any statistical significance. But if a person must
make a sports bet, my advice is to take a dog playing at home. A better answer yet would be to bet the biggest home dog you can find. (This probably is not a profitable strategy; it simply is a way for
someone who is going to bet no matter what to lose the least expected value.)
Early Lines
Suppose somebody asks: “What is the line on the Packers-Lions game?” What that person means

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A better answer might be to bet a home dog. In the NFL since 1985, all the excess wins enjoyed by dogs have gone to home dogs.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure out how to approach this task. So, I'm supposed to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on an excerpt. The user has provided the current summa


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A better answer yet would be to bet the biggest home dog you can find. (This probably is not a profitable strategy; it simply is a way for
someone who is going to bet no matter what to lose the least expected value.)
Early Lines
Suppose somebody asks: “What is the line on the Packers-Lions game?” What that person means is what are the terms that sportsbooks are
offering for wagers on the game. The answer usually is expressed as a team and a number, for example: “Packers -3.”
The line can be positive or it can be negative. If the Packers are three-point favorites over the Lions, then the line could be expressed as
Packers -3 or Lions +3. If the two teams are so evenly matched that the game looks like a toss-up, the line is said to be even and is written on the boards in
sportsbooks as PK. I

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A better answer yet would be to bet the biggest home dog you can find. (This probably is not a profitable strategy; it simply is a way for
someone who is going to bet no matter what to lose the least expected value.)
Early Lines
Suppose somebody asks: “What is the line on the Packers-Lions game?” What that person means is what are the terms that sportsbooks are
offering for wagers on the game.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If the odds are not given, the default is whatever are the normal odds offered by the sportsbook for that type of bet. The standard default odds
in the sportsbooks of Nevada are -110, meaning the bettor wagers $110 in an attempt to win $100. The -110 is not cut into stone. It is a number that has been used by Nevada sportsbook for years, and has proven to be low enough to attract
bets from customers and yet high enough for the books to make enough money to survive. Various Las Vegas books sometimes offer special
odds to try to attract big bets; if you are making football bets in Las Vegas, ask around and you might learn about places where you can bet NFL
sides for -105 for limited hours on selected days. If the odds on a bet are other than the usual, which in Nevada means other than -110,

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If the odds are not given, the default is whatever are the normal odds offered by the sportsbook for that type of bet. The standard default odds
in the sportsbooks of Nevada are -110, meaning the bettor wagers $110 in an attempt to win $100.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You might for
example find Rams -3 -115, which means you must wager $115 to try to win $100 if you want to bet on the Rams -3. If the Rams are -3 -115 and
they are playing the Saints, the line on the Saints will be +3 -105. This situation means the Rams are slightly stronger than three points better than
the Saints, but not so much stronger as to justify a line of Rams -3.5. Not all lines are the same. A lot of thought goes into the lines that are posted for major events, of which the Super Bowl is the most major of
all. At the other extreme, not much time is spent on constructing lines for exotic bets. Exotic Bets
First look at exotics, which are the same thing as prop bets. Here is an example. Prior to the start of the 2001 baseball season, the Imperial
Palace in Las Vegas offered an ext

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You might for
example find Rams -3 -115, which means you must wager $115 to try to win $100 if you want to bet on the Rams -3. If the Rams are -3 -115 and
they are playing the Saints, the line on the Saints will be +3 -105.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
McGwire held the all-time record for most homers in a season with 70. McGwire and Sosa were co-favorites to hit the most homers in
2001; each was listed at 4:1. But in a head-to-head matchup between the two men, the prop sheet listed McGwire as +110 and Sosa as -140. Sosa was born on 11/12/68, making him 32 at the start of the 2001 season. McGwire was born on 10/01/63, making him 37 at the start of the
season. McGwire had a history of physical ailments that kept him out of the lineup for weeks or months at a time; Sosa had been sturdy, seldom
missing a game. I thought that Sosa was going to get 50 or so homers almost for sure, while McGwire had a small chance of having a huge year
but a large chance of missing a lot of games due to injury. Thus I thought that Sosa to hit more homers than M

CURRENT SUMMARY:
McGwire held the all-time record for most homers in a season with 70. McGwire and Sosa were co-favorites to hit the most homers in
2001; each was listed at 4:1.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The max bet was a payoff of $500. The clerk accepted my max bet of $725,
and then immediately walked over to where the bet was listed on the board and changed the numbers to McGwire +120, Sosa -160. I came back a couple of hours later, and Sosa was still -160. I made another max bet, giving the clerk $800. After accepting my bet, the clerk
walked over to the listing and changed it to McGwire +140, Sosa -180. I came back the next day, and the numbers were unchanged: McGwire +140, Sosa -180. That says something about how much attention that
prop was getting from other bettors. One day it was McGwire +115, Sosa -145; my bets caused it to change to McGwire +140, Sosa -180; and the
next day those numbers were still up on the board. There was no new information that affected the bet in that one

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The max bet was a payoff of $500. The clerk accepted my max bet of $725,
and then immediately walked over to where the bet was listed on the board and changed the numbers to McGwire +120, Sosa -160.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand th


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You would think that raising the payoff on McGwire from +115 to +140 would bring in some money
on McGwire. But if the change attracted any McGwire money, the amount was not enough to cause the odds to change. My bets undoubtedly
were a major part of the total wagered on that prop over those 24 hours. Perhaps my bets were the only bets on either side of the prop during
those 24 hours. How much thought went into the original line of McGwire +110, Sosa -140? Probably not much. The line on Sosa was changed to -160 and
then to -180 purely because of my bets. The line did not move because the people behind the counter rethought the prop and suddenly agreed
with me that Sosa was much more likely than McGwire to stay healthy. Had I made max bets on McGwire instead of Sosa, the line probably
would

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You would think that raising the payoff on McGwire from +115 to +140 would bring in some money
on McGwire. But if the change attracted any McGwire money, the amount was not enough to cause the odds to change.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The Imperial Palace has limited time for thinking up exotic bets, and must do it cheaply in order to make a profit overall. That means the
Imperial Palace can’t justify spending excessive time researching each prop bet. Individual customers undoubtedly devote more time to analyzing some of the Imperial Palace’s exotic offerings than the Imperial Palace
spends creating them. I did not spend any time analyzing McGwire vs. Sosa; I liked that bet as soon as I saw it. But there have been a number of
other Imperial Palace props that I’m sure I spent more time analyzing than the person or people who created them. There are two reasons why the Imperial Palace does not have to worry if the lines on some of its exotic bets are soft. One reason is the max
bet. Even if Imperial Palace makes a big mist

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The Imperial Palace has limited time for thinking up exotic bets, and must do it cheaply in order to make a profit overall. That means the
Imperial Palace can’t justify spending excessive time researching each prop bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should under


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Even if Imperial Palace makes a big mistake on an exotic, a customer who finds the mistake can take advantage of it for only a small number
of dollars, $500 at the time of this writing. After accepting a max bet on a prop, the sportsbook can change the bet to make that side less attractive
and the other side more attractive. I could have continued to bet more and more money on Sosa to outhomer McGwire, but each successive bet
would have been at worse odds. The other reason is the large spread between the two sides of the proposition. The sportsbook occasionally puts
up a prop that ends up costing it money, but any such losses are small compared to what the book makes on the props that get action on both
sides, and props that get an imbalance of action on the losing side. So for props, one

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Even if Imperial Palace makes a big mistake on an exotic, a customer who finds the mistake can take advantage of it for only a small number
of dollars, $500 at the time of this writing. After accepting a max bet on a prop, the sportsbook can change the bet to make that side less attractive
and the other side more attractive.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should un


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
So for props, one reality is that if you examine enough of them, you are going to find some that promise a huge expected return. But another
reality of prop bets is that you won’t be able to make a huge number of dollars on them, due to your not being able to wager a huge number of
dollars without drastically affecting the odds. Thus you will have a large percentage edge but will win a small number of dollars. For example, I
put a few more max bets on Sosa, but each bet was to win only $500. I’d have loved to have won $20,000 betting Sosa to outhomer McGwire
during the 2001 baseball season, but there was no way I could have gotten that much money down. Either the Imperial Palace would have
moved the line against me after each max bet until further bets were no longer worthwhile, or the pro

CURRENT SUMMARY:
So for props, one reality is that if you examine enough of them, you are going to find some that promise a huge expected return. But another
reality of prop bets is that you won’t be able to make a huge number of dollars on them, due to your not being able to wager a huge number of
dollars without drastically affecting the odds.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should un


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Either the Imperial Palace would have
moved the line against me after each max bet until further bets were no longer worthwhile, or the prop would have been removed from the board,
or the welcome mat for further bets would have been yanked from beneath my feet. Super Bowl
Whereas an obscure prop bet might be the brainchild of a single person investing a few minutes of time, the early line for the spread on the
Super Bowl is the product of several people’s investing much thought. The initial spread for the Super Bowl is a much more solid number than the
early odds on a prop. From the time the early line is posted, a huge volume of dollars flows into bets on the Super Bowl. If the initial line on the Super Bowl is not
splitting the early money as evenly as another number would, the line is c

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Either the Imperial Palace would have
moved the line against me after each max bet until further bets were no longer worthwhile, or the prop would have been removed from the board,
or the welcome mat for further bets would have been yanked from beneath my feet. Super Bowl
Whereas an obscure prop bet might be the brainchild of a single person investing a few minutes of time, the early line for the

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A sportsbook does not mind if an obscure prop gets
one-sided action, but the Super Bowl brings in too much money to make one-sided action palatable. Super Bowls are different from other sporting events in that most of the dollars wagered against the spread on the Super Bowl come from
unsophisticated bettors. To sharps, the Super Bowl is just another bet. There is no mathematical justification for a sharp’s betting more money on one team in the
Super Bowl than he or she would bet on any other game. When linesmakers try to balance the action on a Super Bowl, it’s unsophisticated action they are trying to split, half on each team. It’s
logically possible that all the sharps are betting on the same side of a Super Bowl, and the sportsbooks don’t mind if they do. Bettors shop around for Super B

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A sportsbook does not mind if an obscure prop gets
one-sided action, but the Super Bowl brings in too much money to make one-sided action palatable. Super Bowls are different from other sporting events in that most of the dollars wagered against the spread on the Super Bowl come from
unsophisticated bettors.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should un


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Bettors shop around for Super Bowl lines, quickly bringing the various sportsbooks into agreement on their line for that game. Unlike the situation with prop bets at Imperial Palace, the bets of any one individual on the Super Bowl do not cause the line to change. One
person’s bets are simply too small compared to the total being wagered by all bettors. If you want to bet $20,000 on one side to win the Super
Bowl, you can do so easily without moving the line. However, there is a downside to betting on which team will win the Super Bowl. The downside is the line on the Super Bowl is much more
efficient than the lines on prop bets. That means that all the information that you might consider before making your bet has already been
considered by other bettors, and has already been factored int

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Bettors shop around for Super Bowl lines, quickly bringing the various sportsbooks into agreement on their line for that game. Unlike the situation with prop bets at Imperial Palace, the bets of any one individual on the Super Bowl do not cause the line to change.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should un


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Thus betting on the Super Bowl is quite different from betting on exotics. In the Super Bowl you can bet huge, whereas on exotics the amount
you can bet is limited. In the Super Bowl it’s difficult to get an edge, whereas on selected exotics it can be easy to get an edge. Other Games
Exotics and the Super Bowl define the extremes. Bets on other games fall between those extremes. Creating early lines for the first week of a new season requires a considerable investment of time on the part of linesmakers, because there is
much information to consider. Every new season brings new players, new coaches, changes in the rules, etc. Creating the early lines for subsequent games is much faster. The process involves extrapolating each team’s performances in the season to
date, with allowances for in

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Thus betting on the Super Bowl is quite different from betting on exotics. In the Super Bowl you can bet huge, whereas on exotics the amount
you can bet is limited.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should un


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
There is a company whose business is consulting on lines for sportsbooks: Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC). The handicapping
experts employed by LVSC create lines that can be purchased by sportsbooks. An early line is an expert opinion, but it is an expert opinion rendered by a group of people who must create lines on dozens or hundreds of
games in a short period of time. Thus there is opportunity for bettors to find soft spots. Why Lines Change
Sharps Bet Early
Early lines on most games are solid, but a few are soft, meaning sharp bettors can find an edge. Sportsbooks like to find those soft spots
quickly, and move the numbers to remove the softness. The way that is done is to hold early bettors to lower limits. The sportsbook is quicker to
move the lines in response to early bets than

CURRENT SUMMARY:
There is a company whose business is consulting on lines for sportsbooks: Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC). The handicapping
experts employed by LVSC create lines that can be purchased by sportsbooks.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

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Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The sportsbook is quicker to
move the lines in response to early bets than to bets that come in closer to game time. For an interesting account of the process of sharps working the softness out of a line back in the days when Stardust hung the first lines, see
Chad Millman’s The Odds, pages 83-87. How much adjustment will the sharps cause? If an early line is +8 and they think it should be +4, they are going to bet it off of +8 but they are
not going to make the final bet that causes the line to move from +4.5 to +4, because they must wager $110 to try to win $100, and the cost of the
vig is greater than the expected value of the half point. They may not make the bet that would move it from +5 to +4.5 either, because they might
not see that bet as being profitable enough. They will stop ma

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The sportsbook is quicker to
move the lines in response to early bets than to bets that come in closer to game time. For an interesting account of the process of sharps working the softness out of a line back in the days when Stardust hung the first lines, see
Chad Millman’s The Odds, pages 83-87.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should un


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Balanced Action? Ideally, from the viewpoint of the sportsbook, the line should never move up or down, it should attract huge action on both teams, and by the
time the game starts there should be approximately the same number of dollars bet on each team. At least that’s what most people think. It’s not
true. Better than that, from the viewpoint of the sportsbook, is when are a whole lot more dollars bet on one team than on the other, and the team
with all the action on it is the one that loses. While competing in the Stardust football tournament in the fall of 2000, I had the opportunity to ask Robert Walker, race and sportsbook
director at MGM Mirage, whether his company’s action is balanced on football games. I mentioned that it seemed to me that on about half the
games, most people who

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Balanced Action? Ideally, from the viewpoint of the sportsbook, the line should never move up or down, it should attract huge action on both teams, and by the
time the game starts there should be approximately the same number of dollars bet on each team.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
I said it therefore appeared to me that sportsbooks might be taking lopsided
action on about half of all NFL games. Walker answered that what I hypothesized was indeed the case. He said he does not mind lopsided
action as long as his sportsbook makes money overall on those games. Then I asked him why he did not make more line moves to try to balance the action. His answer was that to move the line to try to balance the
action would result in less profit for the sportsbook. Balanced action is seldom achieved. It’s a myth that balancing the action is the purpose of the line, except in the case of the Super Bowl. Games With Less Public Interest
Sharps are willing to bet on any game, and the amount of money they are willing to bet depends on their perceived edge. The amount of
money wagered on

CURRENT SUMMARY:
I said it therefore appeared to me that sportsbooks might be taking lopsided
action on about half of all NFL games. Walker answered that what I hypothesized was indeed the case.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The amount of
money wagered on a game by unsophisticated bettors, sometimes called squares or the public, varies from game to game and sport to sport. Some sports attract lesser amounts of unsophisticated action: NBA regular-season games, hockey, baseball, and regular-season college
basketball games. If there is any big action on such games, it most likely comes from sharps. Lopsided action can mean somebody knows more
about the game than do the linesmakers. Games that are not televised generally attract a lower volume of bets from unsophisticated bettors. If enough sharps agree that a team is good value, the amount of money they are capable of betting is huge. Therefore, on games that attract
less money from unsophisticated bettors, sportsbooks must be quick to move the line in response t

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The amount of
money wagered on a game by unsophisticated bettors, sometimes called squares or the public, varies from game to game and sport to sport. Some sports attract lesser amounts of unsophisticated action: NBA regular-season games, hockey, baseball, and regular-season college
basketball games.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should un


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Therefore, on games that attract
less money from unsophisticated bettors, sportsbooks must be quick to move the line in response to lopsided action. Games with lesser amounts of bets from unsophisticated bettors are the ones on which sportsbooks like to have balanced action, because a
big imbalance of action on such a game might mean the sportsbook does not have an edge. Games With More Public Interest
Games that are televised attract more public money than do games that are not televised. Playoff games attract more public money than do
regular-season games. The Super Bowl attracts the highest percentage of unsophisticated money, of course. The next highest percentage of unsophisticated money
is on other high-profile games, such as the World Series, the NBA playoffs, and regular-season NFL

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Therefore, on games that attract
less money from unsophisticated bettors, sportsbooks must be quick to move the line in response to lopsided action. Games with lesser amounts of bets from unsophisticated bettors are the ones on which sportsbooks like to have balanced action, because a
big imbalance of action on such a game might mean the sportsbook does not have an edge.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should understand


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
College football and the NCAA
basketball playoffs attract the next-highest proportion of unsophisticated money. After that come NBA regular-season games, hockey, baseball,
and regular-season college basketball games. On games on which the bulk of wagers come from unsophisticated bettors, the sportsbook might actually welcome lopsided action, if the
manager of the sportsbook thinks that the side with the most action is the side most likely to lose. Sportsbook managers think like sharps; they are
happy to have their books take risk as long as higher risk is accompanied by enough expected profit. Maximum Profits for Sportsbook
One way the theoretical hold percentage can be achieved is if the line stays constant from the time it is first hung until game time, and both
sides get equal action. A

CURRENT SUMMARY:
College football and the NCAA
basketball playoffs attract the next-highest proportion of unsophisticated money. After that come NBA regular-season games, hockey, baseball,
and regular-season college basketball games.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this query step by step. The user is asking for help refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on a specific excerpt. The excerpt discusses how sportsbooks ha


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Another way the theoretical hold percentage can be achieved is if the opening line handicaps the game perfectly, with each side having an
equal chance of winning the game. When this happens the theoretical hold percentage may not be achieved on any single game, but it has the
expectation of being achieved on average over many games. Sportsbook managers strive to achieve better than the theoretical hold percentage. They try to set lines so that the excess action is on the
side that is less likely to win. It’s easier to do this on games with a higher proportion of money being bet by unsophisticated bettors. Suppose that a sportsbook manager thinks there is a 50 percent chance that Baltimore will win Sunday’s game by more than 7.5 points. And
further suppose that the manager thinks that hangi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Another way the theoretical hold percentage can be achieved is if the opening line handicaps the game perfectly, with each side having an
equal chance of winning the game. When this happens the theoretical hold percentage may not be achieved on any single game, but it has the
expectation of being achieved on average over many games.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should un


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
And
further suppose that the manager thinks that hanging a line of Baltimore -7.5 would attract an imbalance of action on Baltimore, but that a line of
Baltimore -10 would split the action evenly between Baltimore and its opponent. A line of Baltimore -7.5 would allow the sportsbook to achieve its theoretical hold percentage, as would a line of Baltimore -10. At a line of Baltimore -7, most of the action would come in on Baltimore, and Baltimore would be the side that is most likely to cover, so the

sportsbook would not have an edge. At a line of Baltimore -10.5, most of the action would come in on Baltimore’s opponent, and that would be the side most likely to cover, so the
sportsbook would not have an edge. Any line between Baltimore -8 and Baltimore -9.5 will attract more money on the

CURRENT SUMMARY:
And
further suppose that the manager thinks that hanging a line of Baltimore -7.5 would attract an imbalance of action on Baltimore, but that a line of
Baltimore -10 would split the action evenly between Baltimore and its opponent. A line of Baltimore -7.5 would allow the sportsbook to achieve its theoretical hold percentage, as would a line of Baltimore -10.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this step by step. The user is asking me to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document, specifically based on the latest excerpt provided. My goal is to extract the mo


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River
Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Trademarks: Wiley, For Dummies, the Dummies Man logo, Dummies.com, Making Everything Easier, and related
trade dress are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley & Sons, Inc., and may not be used without written
permission. Instant Pot is a registered trademark of Instant Brands, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of
their respective owners. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. LIMIT OF LIABILITY/DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY: THE CONTENTS OF THIS WORK ARE INTENDED TO FURTHER
GENERAL SCIENTIFIC

CURRENT SUMMARY:
the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River
Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Trademarks: Wiley, For Dummies, the Dummies Man logo, Dummies.com, Making Everything Easier, and related
trade dress are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me break down what I need to do step by step.

First, I should un


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. LIMIT OF LIABILITY/DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY: THE CONTENTS OF THIS WORK ARE INTENDED TO FURTHER
GENERAL SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, UNDERSTANDING, AND DISCUSSION ONLY AND ARE NOT INTENDED AND
SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS RECOMMENDING OR PROMOTING A SPECIFIC METHOD, DIAGNOSIS, OR
TREATMENT BY PHYSICIANS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PATIENT. THE PUBLISHER AND THE AUTHOR MAKE NO
REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENTS
OF THIS WORK AND SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION ANY
IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN VIEW OF ONGOING RESEARCH, EQUIPMENT
MODIFICATIONS, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL REGULATIONS, AND THE CONSTA

CURRENT SUMMARY:
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. LIMIT OF LIABILITY/DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY: THE CONTENTS OF THIS WORK ARE INTENDED TO FURTHER
GENERAL SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, UNDERSTANDING, AND DISCUSSION ONLY AND ARE NOT INTENDED AND
SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS RECOMMENDING OR PROMOTING A SPECIFIC METHOD, DIAGNOSIS, OR
TREATMENT BY PHYSICIANS FOR ANY P

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I need to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me start by understanding what exactly is being asked. The user wants me to extr


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
THE PUBLISHER AND THE AUTHOR MAKE NO
REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENTS
OF THIS WORK AND SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION ANY
IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN VIEW OF ONGOING RESEARCH, EQUIPMENT
MODIFICATIONS, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL REGULATIONS, AND THE CONSTANT FLOW OF INFORMATION,
THE READER IS URGED TO REVIEW AND EVALUATE THE INFORMATION PROVIDED IN THE PACKAGE INSERT OR
INSTRUCTIONS FOR EACH MEDICINE, EQUIPMENT, OR DEVICE FOR, AMONG OTHER THINGS, ANY CHANGES IN
THE INSTRUCTIONS OR INDICATION OF USAGE AND FOR ADDED WARNINGS AND PRECAUTIONS. READERS
SHOULD CONSULT WITH A SPECIALIST WHERE APPROPRIATE. NEITHER THE PUBLISHER NOR THE AUTHOR

CURRENT SUMMARY:
THE PUBLISHER AND THE AUTHOR MAKE NO
REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENTS
OF THIS WORK AND SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION ANY
IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN VIEW OF ONGOING RESEARCH, EQUIPMENT
MODIFICATIONS, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL REGULATIONS, AND THE CONSTANT FLOW OF INFORMAT

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me start by understanding what exactly is being asked. The user w


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
For general information on our other products and services, please contact our Customer Care Department within
the U.S. at 877-762-2974, outside the U.S. at 317-572-3993, or fax 317-572-4002. For technical support, please visit
https://hub.wiley.com/community/support/dummies. Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand. Some material included with
standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand. If this book refers to
media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at
http://booksupport.wiley.com. For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com. Library of Congress Control Number: 2020904219
ISBN 978-1-119-65438-4 (pbk); ISBN 978-

CURRENT SUMMARY:
For general information on our other products and services, please contact our Customer Care Department within
the U.S. at 877-762-2974, outside the U.S.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me start by understanding what exactly is being asked. The user w


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Contents at a Glance
Foreword. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . xv
Introduction. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 1
Part 1: Sports Betting Basics. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 7
CHAPTER 1: Betting Sports for Fun and Profit. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 9
CHAPTER 2:	 The Basic Bets. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Contents at a Glance
Foreword. xv
Introduction.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt provided. Let me start by understanding what exactly is being asked. The user wants me to


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River
Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Trademarks: Wiley, For Dummies, the Dummies Man logo, Dummies.com, Making Everything Easier, and related
trade dress are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley & Sons, Inc., and may not be used without written
permission. Instant Pot is a registered trademark of Instant Brands, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of
their respective owners. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. LIMIT OF LIABILITY/DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY: THE CONTENTS OF THIS WORK ARE INTENDED TO FURTHER
GENERAL SCIENTIFIC

CURRENT SUMMARY:
the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River
Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Trademarks: Wiley, For Dummies, the Dummies Man logo, Dummies.com, Making Everything Easier, and related
trade dress are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this. So, I'm supposed to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on a provided excerpt. The user has given me a specific format to follow, including a s


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. LIMIT OF LIABILITY/DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY: THE CONTENTS OF THIS WORK ARE INTENDED TO FURTHER
GENERAL SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, UNDERSTANDING, AND DISCUSSION ONLY AND ARE NOT INTENDED AND
SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS RECOMMENDING OR PROMOTING A SPECIFIC METHOD, DIAGNOSIS, OR
TREATMENT BY PHYSICIANS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PATIENT. THE PUBLISHER AND THE AUTHOR MAKE NO
REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENTS
OF THIS WORK AND SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION ANY
IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN VIEW OF ONGOING RESEARCH, EQUIPMENT
MODIFICATIONS, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL REGULATIONS, AND THE CONSTA

CURRENT SUMMARY:
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. LIMIT OF LIABILITY/DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY: THE CONTENTS OF THIS WORK ARE INTENDED TO FURTHER
GENERAL SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, UNDERSTANDING, AND DISCUSSION ONLY AND ARE NOT INTENDED AND
SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS RECOMMENDING OR PROMOTING A SPECIFIC METHOD, DIAGNOSIS, OR
TREATMENT BY PHYSICIANS FOR ANY P

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to work through this problem. So, I need to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several versions of the


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
THE PUBLISHER AND THE AUTHOR MAKE NO
REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENTS
OF THIS WORK AND SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION ANY
IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN VIEW OF ONGOING RESEARCH, EQUIPMENT
MODIFICATIONS, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL REGULATIONS, AND THE CONSTANT FLOW OF INFORMATION,
THE READER IS URGED TO REVIEW AND EVALUATE THE INFORMATION PROVIDED IN THE PACKAGE INSERT OR
INSTRUCTIONS FOR EACH MEDICINE, EQUIPMENT, OR DEVICE FOR, AMONG OTHER THINGS, ANY CHANGES IN
THE INSTRUCTIONS OR INDICATION OF USAGE AND FOR ADDED WARNINGS AND PRECAUTIONS. READERS
SHOULD CONSULT WITH A SPECIALIST WHERE APPROPRIATE. NEITHER THE PUBLISHER NOR THE AUTHOR

CURRENT SUMMARY:
THE PUBLISHER AND THE AUTHOR MAKE NO
REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENTS
OF THIS WORK AND SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION ANY
IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. IN VIEW OF ONGOING RESEARCH, EQUIPMENT
MODIFICATIONS, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL REGULATIONS, AND THE CONSTANT FLOW OF INFORMAT

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I need to help the user by refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They provided a specific excerpt, and I have to extract the most important information and present it in a


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
For general information on our other products and services, please contact our Customer Care Department within
the U.S. at 877-762-2974, outside the U.S. at 317-572-3993, or fax 317-572-4002. For technical support, please visit
https://hub.wiley.com/community/support/dummies. Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand. Some material included with
standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand. If this book refers to
media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at
http://booksupport.wiley.com. For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com. Library of Congress Control Number: 2020904219
ISBN 978-1-119-65438-4 (pbk); ISBN 978-

CURRENT SUMMARY:
For general information on our other products and services, please contact our Customer Care Department within
the U.S. at 877-762-2974, outside the U.S.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, let me try to work through this step by step. The user has given me a query about refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They provided a specific excerpt and the current summar


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Contents at a Glance
Foreword. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . xv
Introduction. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 1
Part 1: Sports Betting Basics. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 7
CHAPTER 1: Betting Sports for Fun and Profit. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 9
CHAPTER 2:	 The Basic Bets. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Contents at a Glance
Foreword. xv
Introduction.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They’ve provided a bunch of excerpts and summaries, and they want me to extract the most important informatio


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Contents at a Glance
Foreword. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . xv
Introduction. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 1
Part 1: Sports Betting Basics. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 7
CHAPTER 1: Betting Sports for Fun and Profit. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 9
CHAPTER 2:	 The Basic Bets. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Contents at a Glance
Foreword. xv
Introduction.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I've been given a task to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The user has provided an excerpt from the document, which includes sections like "Contents at a Glance," "Fore


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Contents at a Glance
Foreword. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . xv
Introduction. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 1
Part 1: Sports Betting Basics. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 7
CHAPTER 1: Betting Sports for Fun and Profit. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 9
CHAPTER 2:	 The Basic Bets. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Contents at a Glance
Foreword. xv
Introduction.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's break this down. The user is asking me to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided several excerpts and a history of how I've responded to similar request


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
What’s the Difference?. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  208
Totally rated. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  208
Power rating strengths. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  210
Power rating weaknesses. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  210
Developing a Power Rating of Your Own. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  211
Plagiarism is the sincerest form of flattery. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  212
Your first power rating. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .

CURRENT SUMMARY:
What’s the Difference?. 208
Totally rated.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, let me try to figure out how to approach this. The user has provided a detailed conversation history where they've been refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Each time, they'v


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Other common baseball bets . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  341
Baseball Scoring Patterns. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Runs per game. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Runs per inning. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Assessing hot and cold streaks. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  345
Starting Pitching and MLB Odds. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  346
BET on

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Other common baseball bets . 341
Baseball Scoring Patterns.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. The user has been giving me excerpts and asking for summaries and key points. Let me


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Other common baseball bets . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  341
Baseball Scoring Patterns. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Runs per game. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Runs per inning. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Assessing hot and cold streaks. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  345
Starting Pitching and MLB Odds. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  346
BET on

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Other common baseball bets . 341
Baseball Scoring Patterns.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so the user is asking me to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt and a current summary. My task is to extract the most important informat


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Other common baseball bets . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  341
Baseball Scoring Patterns. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Runs per game. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Runs per inning. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Assessing hot and cold streaks. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  345
Starting Pitching and MLB Odds. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  346
BET on

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Other common baseball bets . 341
Baseball Scoring Patterns.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure out how to approach this. So, the user is asking me to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt from the document, which


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Tetlock and Dan Gardner. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Confidence by Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Superbookie by Art Manteris . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Failure by Stuart Firestein. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
Scorecasting by Tobias Moskowitz. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
How to Lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
Sharper by Poker Joe. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 402
Confidence by Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic .

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I need to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. Let me start by carefully reading the query and the context.

The user has prov


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Tetlock and Dan Gardner. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Confidence by Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Superbookie by Art Manteris . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Failure by Stuart Firestein. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
Scorecasting by Tobias Moskowitz. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
How to Lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
Sharper by Poker Joe. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 402
Confidence by Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic .

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to figure out how to help the user refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt. Let me start by understanding what's being asked.

The user provided a new excerpt from


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But good bettors
also spend time looking backward, trying to figure out what clues they
missed in yesterday’s lost bet. When you spot those missed clues, your brain will
whisper, “You’re a dummy!” Try not to listen to that pesky brain. If you’re about to step tentatively into the sometime mystifying world of sports
wagering, you must first understand one truism: No matter how long you work at
it, sports betting will always provide moments where you’ll feel like a dummy. Being wrong — sometimes badly, terribly, even embarrassingly wrong — is part of
the deal. And sometimes your luck will be so bad, you won’t even be granted the dignity of
merely being wrong! Often the bettor is done in by factors he or she has no control
over, like injuries, weather, or — in the case of football — y

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But good bettors
also spend time looking backward, trying to figure out what clues they
missed in yesterday’s lost bet. When you spot those missed clues, your brain will
whisper, “You’re a dummy!” Try not to listen to that pesky brain.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt, and I need to extract the most important information. Let me break down


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Often the bettor is done in by factors he or she has no control
over, like injuries, weather, or — in the case of football — yellow handkerchiefs
thrown by your fellow human beings at the worst possible times. Suffering bad
beats (when the team you bet on gets an unlucky break, or somehow snatches
defeat from the jaws of victory) is also a part of this hobby. You must accept them
and move on as quickly as possible hoping that it all “evens out in the end.” (That
sentiment, while true, has never made anyone feel one bit better.)
Sports betting also involves work. Are you ready for it? Anybody can make a bet on
a “hunch” and win a few bucks and have some laughs, but this isn’t something
you can dabble at if you expect to be consistently good at it. You’ll need to study
the sports be

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Often the bettor is done in by factors he or she has no control
over, like injuries, weather, or — in the case of football — yellow handkerchiefs
thrown by your fellow human beings at the worst possible times. Suffering bad
beats (when the team you bet on gets an unlucky break, or somehow snatches
defeat from the jaws of victory) is also a part of this hobby.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I need to figure out how to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. Let me start by carefully reading the query and the context.


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Other common baseball bets . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  341
Baseball Scoring Patterns. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Runs per game. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Runs per inning. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  344
Assessing hot and cold streaks. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  345
Starting Pitching and MLB Odds. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  346
BET on

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Other common baseball bets . 341
Baseball Scoring Patterns.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. Let me start by understanding what they're asking for. They've given me a s


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Tetlock and Dan Gardner. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Confidence by Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Superbookie by Art Manteris . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Failure by Stuart Firestein. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
Scorecasting by Tobias Moskowitz. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
How to Lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
Sharper by Poker Joe. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 402
Confidence by Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic .

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I need to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. Let me start by carefully reading the query and the context.

The user has provide


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Tetlock and Dan Gardner. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Confidence by Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Superbookie by Art Manteris . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  402
Failure by Stuart Firestein. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
Scorecasting by Tobias Moskowitz. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
How to Lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  403
Sharper by Poker Joe. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 402
Confidence by Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic .

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided an excerpt that lists several books with page numbers. The user also shared a previous inte


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But good bettors
also spend time looking backward, trying to figure out what clues they
missed in yesterday’s lost bet. When you spot those missed clues, your brain will
whisper, “You’re a dummy!” Try not to listen to that pesky brain. If you’re about to step tentatively into the sometime mystifying world of sports
wagering, you must first understand one truism: No matter how long you work at
it, sports betting will always provide moments where you’ll feel like a dummy. Being wrong — sometimes badly, terribly, even embarrassingly wrong — is part of
the deal. And sometimes your luck will be so bad, you won’t even be granted the dignity of
merely being wrong! Often the bettor is done in by factors he or she has no control
over, like injuries, weather, or — in the case of football — y

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But good bettors
also spend time looking backward, trying to figure out what clues they
missed in yesterday’s lost bet. When you spot those missed clues, your brain will
whisper, “You’re a dummy!” Try not to listen to that pesky brain.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to figure out how to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided an excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most imp


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Often the bettor is done in by factors he or she has no control
over, like injuries, weather, or — in the case of football — yellow handkerchiefs
thrown by your fellow human beings at the worst possible times. Suffering bad
beats (when the team you bet on gets an unlucky break, or somehow snatches
defeat from the jaws of victory) is also a part of this hobby. You must accept them
and move on as quickly as possible hoping that it all “evens out in the end.” (That
sentiment, while true, has never made anyone feel one bit better.)
Sports betting also involves work. Are you ready for it? Anybody can make a bet on
a “hunch” and win a few bucks and have some laughs, but this isn’t something
you can dabble at if you expect to be consistently good at it. You’ll need to study
the sports be

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Often the bettor is done in by factors he or she has no control
over, like injuries, weather, or — in the case of football — yellow handkerchiefs
thrown by your fellow human beings at the worst possible times. Suffering bad
beats (when the team you bet on gets an unlucky break, or somehow snatches
defeat from the jaws of victory) is also a part of this hobby.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a new excerpt and want me to extract the most important information and format it into a


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You’ll need to study
the sports betting marketplace, get comfortable with betting strategies and odds,
find ways to research teams and players, and learn to keep good records. It takes
time, patience, and no small amount of courage. (Did I mention those bad beats?)
So why do so many of us participate? Sports betting is fun. Not just game-of-
Parcheesi-fun or go-to-the-movies fun. I’m talking about genuine exhilaration. Betting takes what you already love about sports to the next level. When you pick
a winner, it can feel like you’ve solved a seemingly impossible riddle or uncovered
a secret that nobody else knows. When you win a bet that all of your friends said
you were crazy to make, it’s a flavor of elation you won’t soon forget.

xvi      Sports Betting For Dummies
So put aside

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You’ll need to study
the sports betting marketplace, get comfortable with betting strategies and odds,
find ways to research teams and players, and learn to keep good records. It takes
time, patience, and no small amount of courage.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt and want me to extract the most important information and format it into a


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Good luck, and I’ll see
you at the betting window. . . . Norm Hitzges is a Texas Radio Hall of Fame member in his 45th straight year on the air in the
Dallas/Fort Worth area. Norm is a veteran horse and sports handicapper and industry insider
whose picks are offered every Friday as his acclaimed “Picks of the Pole” segment on KTCK (1310
AM / 96.7 FM, “SportsRadio 1310 The Ticket”). Norm also donates considerable time and energy
to charitable work for many organizations, including the Austin Street Center and Texans Can
Academy. Introduction      1
Introduction
L
et’s get one thing straight: Sports betting is an intellectual challenge with a
tangible life-affirming, pocket-book-enhancing result at the end of each
event (if all goes well). It’s a test of your puzzle-solving skills. C

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Good luck, and I’ll see
you at the betting window. Norm Hitzges is a Texas Radio Hall of Fame member in his 45th straight year on the air in the
Dallas/Fort Worth area.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The user has provided an excerpt, and they want me to extract the most important information and format it into a str


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Can you find
the hidden angle or discover some insight about the two teams on the field that
the rest of the world missed? In the old days, you’d have to travel to Nevada or have “a guy” if you wanted to
bet on a sporting event. As the internet evolved, those with enough patience and
tolerance for risk could pursue bets through offshore casinos. Thankfully, in this
modern age, there are now a handful of states and Canadian provinces that permit
sports betting. So if you’re traveling to one of those regions, or if you’re like me
and you maintain an account with an online bookmaker, this is the book for you. About This Book
If you’ve ever placed a friendly wager on a sporting event, then you understand
the potential for fun. This book is going to explain the how the gambling market

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Can you find
the hidden angle or discover some insight about the two teams on the field that
the rest of the world missed? In the old days, you’d have to travel to Nevada or have “a guy” if you wanted to
bet on a sporting event.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt and want me to extract the most important information and format it into


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
I’ll talk about the most common bets, the point spreads, the
over/unders, the moneylines, the props, and the futures. I’ll discuss how the
sports betting market is constituted, and how you can participate. In addition to the structure of the bet, I’ll show you the step-by-step process for
opening an account with an online bookmaker, and I’ll show you how to read the
menu of bets available at a casino or online bookmaker. I’ll then show you how to
recognize good bets and walk you through the process of placing a wager. My goal
is to help you understand what you’re up against, how you lose, and hopefully,
how you win. Then I’ll go sport by sport and talk about what it means to handicap
a game, pick a winner, and bring home the bacon over the long run. Las Vegas sports books have had

CURRENT SUMMARY:
I’ll talk about the most common bets, the point spreads, the
over/unders, the moneylines, the props, and the futures. I’ll discuss how the
sports betting market is constituted, and how you can participate.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I need to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. Let me first read through the excerpt carefully to understand the key points.

The excer


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But most of all, in Sports Betting For Dummies, I’m interested in putting you in a
position to have fun. This is a hobby that can make you sing a song of joy and weep
uncontrollably in the same day. Does that happen in your book club? Does stamp
collecting invoke such highs and lows? Does golf? (Okay, maybe golf does.)
Many gambling books are built on assertions and platitudes, with little backing
data. The point of this book is to not only provide you actionable strategies but to
also build a foundation for you to find your own. I will help you learn how to interpret the betting market and how to assess betting propositions logically and
quantitatively. I’ll help you recognize when a tout is giving you a line of b.s. (can’t
curse in Dummies books), of which there is far too much of

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But most of all, in Sports Betting For Dummies, I’m interested in putting you in a
position to have fun. This is a hobby that can make you sing a song of joy and weep
uncontrollably in the same day.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt and want the most important information extracted and formatted into a


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Sure, this book has “principles” and “rules of thumb” in spades. You’ll learn lots
of lessons and can be proud of yourself for that. But I also want to provide you
with actionable intelligence. I’m holding nothing back: If I know a profitable
approach to betting (like betting the home favorite the day after a double-header),
I’m going to tell you about it. If I’ve learned bets to avoid, I’m going to tell you
about them. I’m not only going to teach you to fish; I’m going to serve you some
delicious sushi. Gambling has its own private language, and sports betting has a sub-species of
gamble-speak. This, more than the underlying concepts, can often be the biggest
barrier to transitioning from a fan to a financially interested fan. So first and
foremost, I’m going to demystify the la

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Sure, this book has “principles” and “rules of thumb” in spades. You’ll learn lots
of lessons and can be proud of yourself for that.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest query. They’ve provided an excerpt and want the most important information extracted and f


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
So first and
foremost, I’m going to demystify the language and basic concepts around sports
betting. Just so you know in advance, I’ll set certain things apart in this book in specific
ways so you know just what to do with the content:
»
» When there’s a new word, important phrase, or a term of art you should
remember, I’ll italicize it and define it.
»
» There will be a chapter devoted to statistics and probability, and where a
stand-alone equation is necessary, I’ll explain each part to you.
»
» Although it’s not a requirement, there will also be references to Microsoft
Excel functions and Excel VBA code. Most of it is in Chapter 16.
»
» Different parts of the world have different ways of presenting odds to
gamblers. I plan on using American odds notation. Introduction      3
Bef

CURRENT SUMMARY:
So first and
foremost, I’m going to demystify the language and basic concepts around sports
betting. Just so you know in advance, I’ll set certain things apart in this book in specific
ways so you know just what to do with the content:
»
» When there’s a new word, important phrase, or a term of art you should
remember, I’ll italicize it and define it.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's break this down. The user is asking for help refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on a specific excerpt. They want the most important information extracted and


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Introduction      3
Before You Go Any Further
The goal of the book is to instill you with the most useful 400 (or so) pages of
information on sports betting. I’m going to promote beginners into functional
sports betting dabblers. And I’m going to make knowledgeable gamblers out of
dabblers. And if you think you’re already more than just a dabbler, the book
will  introduce you to the full variety of popular sports and handicapping
methodologies. Having said that, it’s not possible to cover every single opportunity to risk money
on the outcome of a sporting event. There are so many sports and so many
different kinds of bets out there. My goal is to focus on the sports you love, on the
most accessible analysis methods, and on topics that I believe are the most
underserved in librari

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Introduction      3
Before You Go Any Further
The goal of the book is to instill you with the most useful 400 (or so) pages of
information on sports betting. I’m going to promote beginners into functional
sports betting dabblers.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I need to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest query. The user has provided an excerpt and wants the most important information extracted and form