Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
When the difference between your two numbers is 2.1, you have a 6535 situation, or maybe 66-34. Duke has about a 65 percent chance of winning, and Maryland has about a 35 percent chance of winning. Betting $110 on Duke gives you a 65 percent chance of winning $100 and a 35 percent chance of losing $110. That’s an expected win of
$26.50 on an investment of $110, an expected return of 24 percent. Problem 11
Several sportsbooks have a prop on free throws made: Duke -1.5 or Maryland +1.5. The line on Duke -1.5 is -120. Duke has been allowing

CURRENT SUMMARY:
When the difference between your two numbers is 2.1, you have a 6535 situation, or maybe 66-34. Duke has about a 65 percent chance of winning, and Maryland has about a 35 percent chance of winning.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. It's a bit confusing with all the numbers and terms, but I'll try to break it down.

First, I see that the user provided several excerpt


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Saturday’s game, Duke’s expectation is to make 15.4 free throws and Maryland’s is to make 12.4 free throws. Is Duke -1.5 free throws a good bet at -120? You have to make the adjustment of 1.5, and it does not matter whether you do it to Duke or to Maryland. You can look at 13.9 versus 12.4 in
appendix C, or you can look at 15.4 versus 13.9. Either of those requires interpolation. Or you can look at 15.5 and 14.0, which yields 36-57-7. You need to split the ties between the two sides, since there cannot be a tie on the final result. Splitting the ties gives you 39-61. That’s the same
thing you would have gotten had you used table 7 instead of appendix C. The 39-61 means Maryland has a 39 percent chance of having most free throws with the 1.5 it is given, and Duke has a 61 percent chance of

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Saturday’s game, Duke’s expectation is to make 15.4 free throws and Maryland’s is to make 12.4 free throws. Is Duke -1.5 free throws a good bet at -120?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. It's a bit confusing with all the numbers and terms, but I'll try to break it down.

First, I see that the user provided several excerpt


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
One popular prop is total wins that a team will accumulate during the coming season. The sportsbook posts numbers for totals wins, and the
customers can bet over or under. This chapter will not teach you how to figure out the number of games any team will win. But this chapter will enable you to evaluate any
season-win prop that you think looks attractive. Time Value of Money
When you bet totals, you must consider the time value of money. You will be making your bets before the season starts, and if you have
winning tickets you will be cashing them in after the season ends. Your NFL season bets will tie up your money for four months. Bets on season totals in baseball, basketball, and hockey will mean holding
tickets for six months before being able to cash winners. You won’t be able to cas

CURRENT SUMMARY:
One popular prop is total wins that a team will accumulate during the coming season. The sportsbook posts numbers for totals wins, and the
customers can bet over or under.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. It's a bit confusing with all the numbers and terms, but I'll try to break it down.

First, I see that the user provided several excerpt


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Suppose, for example, you bet on an NFL team to have more than 5.5 wins, and your team
starts off the season with six straight wins. You have a certain winner, but you will have to wait until the season ends before cashing your ticket. The reason is if anything happens that results in the season not being completed, all tickets, including yours, will be refunded. Thus your team
winning its sixth game has not really given you a certain winner, just an almost-certain winner. Suppose you buy an NFL season-wins ticket in August and it wins. You finally get to cash it in early January. The sportsbook has had the
use of your money for more than four months. Baseball is even worse; you buy your ticket in March, cash it in October, and in the process give the
sportsbook use of your money for more

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Suppose, for example, you bet on an NFL team to have more than 5.5 wins, and your team
starts off the season with six straight wins. You have a certain winner, but you will have to wait until the season ends before cashing your ticket.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. It's a bit confusing with all the numbers and terms, but I'll try to break it down.

First, I see that the user provided several excerpt


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The way to handle that is to expect a higher win rate from tickets that must be held for extended time periods. Ten percent return is great for
letting a sportsbook hold your money for a day; but a ten percent return may not be generous enough if your money will be tied up for many
months. Expect the same return for the use of your money from long-term bets as you would expect from other long-term uses of your money. You
expect compensation for three things. You expect compensation for the time value of your money. You expect compensation for the loss of
liquidity waiting for the investment to mature. You expect compensation for the risk you are taking. A CD is a use of your money that involves loss of liquidity for the term of the CD, but zero risk. What return would be sufficient to enti

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The way to handle that is to expect a higher win rate from tickets that must be held for extended time periods. Ten percent return is great for
letting a sportsbook hold your money for a day; but a ten percent return may not be generous enough if your money will be tied up for many
months.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure this out step by step. So, the user has provided several excerpts from sports betting documents, and they want me to extract the most important information to create a st


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
What return would be sufficient to entice you to
invest funds in a CD? Expect the same from a sports bet as far as compensation for the time value of your money and the loss of liquidity, and
expect more expected return on a sports bet to compensate you for the risk involved because you may lose the bet. Theoretically you should not expect too much return for the risk involved in futures bets because that risk is diversifiable. If you get heavily
involved in sports futures, making bets on a variety of teams, your overall risk will be considerably lower than if you were to bet that total amount
of money on only one team. Would you make a long-term investment that promises a certain 10 percent per year but must be held at least six months before you can cash
it in? Perhaps you would. If not,

CURRENT SUMMARY:
What return would be sufficient to entice you to
invest funds in a CD? Expect the same from a sports bet as far as compensation for the time value of your money and the loss of liquidity, and
expect more expected return on a sports bet to compensate you for the risk involved because you may lose the bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. It's a bit confusing with all the numbers and terms, but I'll try to break it down.

First, I see that the user provided several excerpt


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
There must be some number that
would entice you to make a riskless investment that you could not cash for six months. Decide for yourself what that number is. Then add in an
amount of your choosing to compensate you for the risk involved in futures bets. The result will be an expected return per year that you can use to
evaluate all long-term bets. Make only those bets that meet your own personal requirement for expected return. Suppose you require 30 percent per year, just to pick a number out of the air. That means a bet that could be cashed in six months at the
earliest would need to have an expected return of at least 15 percent. A bet that could be cashed in four months at the earliest would need to have
an expected return of at least 10 percent. If you find a season-win bet that prom

CURRENT SUMMARY:
There must be some number that
would entice you to make a riskless investment that you could not cash for six months. Decide for yourself what that number is.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. It's a bit confusing with all the numbers and terms, but I'll try to break it down.

First, I see that the user provided several excerpts f


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Requirements by Sport
The NFL regular season lasts four months. Thus NFL season-win bets are four-month investments. Other major bettable sports have six-month seasons. When you bet season totals for baseball, basketball, or ice hockey, you are making sixmonth investments. An Example: Math Boy
Math Boy says on BJ21.com:
I think this is the major deterrent for gamblers who are building their bankroll. I had found a large, solid book that was offering -400 that
the electoral college would not be abolished by 1/1/2002. Since this takes a constitutional amendment and it was early March of 2001, I
figured this was about as sure a thing as it gets. But I passed it up because right now I want to double my current capital by the end of the
year. In a few years, I would probably jump on that bet. I

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Requirements by Sport
The NFL regular season lasts four months. Thus NFL season-win bets are four-month investments.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. It's a bit confusing with all the numbers and terms, but I'll try to break it down.

First, I see that the user provided several excerpt


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Probably it was not quite a sure thing, so the
actual expectation probably was less than 25 percent. But Math Boy thought it was a sure thing, and made the investment decision as if the
expected return were 25 percent. Making the investment would have meant tying up his money for ten months. For him, 25 percent was not
sufficient for ten months use of his money; he decided to pass up the opportunity to bet against the electoral college’s being abolished by 1
January 2002. Likely you would have made that bet, but of course for only a small part of your bankroll. Middles on Season Wins

Before the start of the 2001 baseball season, this question was posted on BJ21.com: “There are a number of two- and three-game middles. How much are they worth?” That’s the question addressed in this section.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Probably it was not quite a sure thing, so the
actual expectation probably was less than 25 percent. But Math Boy thought it was a sure thing, and made the investment decision as if the
expected return were 25 percent.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. It's a bit confusing with all the numbers and terms, but I'll try to break it down.

First, I see that the user provided several excerpts f


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Average Teams
Table 8 gives the values of middles for various number of wins for seasons of various lengths. The row is a season length. Currently seasons consist of 16 games in NFL football, 162 in major-league baseball, and 82 in the NBA and the
NHL. There also are rows for other possible season lengths. Interpolating between rows is fine. All the tables in this chapter are based on the binomial distribution. I used Excel to develop them. You can reproduce any number in any of
these tables yourself by using Excel or any similar program that will calculate binomial probabilities for you. Table 8 assumes that a team has a 50 percent chance of winning each game. Of course no team has exactly 50 percent chance of winning
every single game of the year. Each game individually will be associate

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Average Teams
Table 8 gives the values of middles for various number of wins for seasons of various lengths. The row is a season length.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. It's a bit confusing with all the numbers and terms, but I'll try to break it down.

First, I see that the user provided several excerpt


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Some
games will be 60-40, some will be 53-47, and so on. But if over the course of a season a team is expected to win around half of its games, table 8
does a good job of describing the likelihood of middles winning. The first column is number of games in the season. Skip the second column for a minute. The third column is the probability of winning a
middle of exactly one game. Here is an example of the application of table 8 to baseball. Look at table 8 to find the probability that an average major-league baseball team will achieve a one-game middle over the course of 162
games. You should find 6.3. That number is in percent, 6.3 percent. If you have found two bets on season wins, and those two bets give you a
middle of one game, you have a 6.3 percent chance of hitting that middle. For

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Some
games will be 60-40, some will be 53-47, and so on. But if over the course of a season a team is expected to win around half of its games, table 8
does a good job of describing the likelihood of middles winning.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. It's a bit confusing with all the numbers and terms, but I'll try to break it down.

First, I see that the user provided several excerpt


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you have found two bets on season wins, and those two bets give you a
middle of one game, you have a 6.3 percent chance of hitting that middle. For example, if you have a bet on a team to win fewer than 81.5 games
and also a bet on that same team to win more than 80.5 games, the probability that the team will win exactly 81 games out of 162 is 6.3 percent. Those percentages also apply to a baseball team that is expected to win something slightly different from 81 games. For example, if you
have a bet on a team to win fewer than 85.5 games and also a bet on that same team to win more than 84.5 games, the probably that the team will
win exactly 85 games is about 6.3 percent. The second column in table 8, the column you skipped temporarily, has values equal to half the numbers in the third

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you have found two bets on season wins, and those two bets give you a
middle of one game, you have a 6.3 percent chance of hitting that middle. For example, if you have a bet on a team to win fewer than 81.5 games
and also a bet on that same team to win more than 80.5 games, the probability that the team will win exactly 81 games out of 162 is 6.3 percent.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. It's a bit confusing with all the numbers and terms, but I'll try to break it down.

First, I see that the user provided several excerpt


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That’s the same as half a win, and half of 6.3 rounds off to 3.1 or 3.2. The 1.0 column applies to any one-game middle; it does not have to be a middle that contains an integer. For example, a baseball middle
composed of over 80 and under 81 would yield a win if the final win total is either 80 or 81. Each of those is half of 6.3 percent, so the two halves
total 6.3 percent. The final four columns of table 8 show the probability of achieving a middle when you are lucky enough to construct one containing 1.5 to 3
wins. Take for example a combination of over 80.5 wins and under 83.5 wins out of 162 played. The chance of hitting that middle is 18.4 percent
according to table 8. Extra-Strong or Extra-Weak Teams
Middles are more valuable when they involve extra-strong or extra-weak teams than w

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That’s the same as half a win, and half of 6.3 rounds off to 3.1 or 3.2. The 1.0 column applies to any one-game middle; it does not have to be a middle that contains an integer.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. It's a bit confusing with all the numbers and terms, but I'll try to break it down.

First, I see that the user provided several excerpt


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Table 9 assumes a team has a 60 percent chance of winning each game, and table 10 assumes a team has a 75 percent chance of winning
each game. A baseball team that is expected to win 75 percent of its games, or 121.5 wins out of 162, would be a truly great baseball team indeed! If you
ever encounter a baseball team that is expected to win say 120 games, and you can construct a one-game middle on season wins, you can look
at table 10 to find that the probability of winning both your bets is 7.2 percent. Compare that to the 6.3 percent number from table 8. The
comparable number of table 9 is 6.4 percent. The numbers that apply to bad teams are the same as the numbers shown in tables 9 and 10. On a one-game middle on a baseball team that
is so bad that it is expected to win only 40 games, you

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Table 9 assumes a team has a 60 percent chance of winning each game, and table 10 assumes a team has a 75 percent chance of winning
each game. A baseball team that is expected to win 75 percent of its games, or 121.5 wins out of 162, would be a truly great baseball team indeed!

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff. It's a bit confusing with all the numbers and terms, but I'll try to break it down.

First, I see that the user provided several excerpt


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
P is the number you get from table 8, 9, or 10. The probability of not winning the middle is 100 - P. Let Vig1 and Vig2 be the vig on the two bets. Examples: If the terms are -110, the vig is 10; if the terms are -130, the vig is 30; if the terms are
+110, the vig is -10. Your expected profit EP is the possible win times the probability of that win plus the expected loss times the probability of that loss, or, for
$100 bets:
EP = 200P - (Vig1 + Vig2)*(100 - P)/2
To find the return on investment (ROI), divide the expected profit above by the investment 200 + Vig1 + Vig2. ROI = EP/(200 + Vig1 + Vig2)

ROI = [200P - (Vig1 + Vig2)*(100 - P)/2]/
(200 + Vig1 + Vig2)
Example: One-Point NFL Middle
The NFL season is sixteen games. According to table 8, if you can construct a one-game middle, you ha

CURRENT SUMMARY:
P is the number you get from table 8, 9, or 10. The probability of not winning the middle is 100 - P.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to make sense of this sports betting document. It seems to be about using statistical methods to predict game outcomes and make profitable bets. Let me break it down step by step.


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Is 19.6 percent chance of a middle enough return for you to tie up your money for four months? Unfortunately, it’s more complicated than simply deciding whether 19.6 percent is sufficient return on a four-month investment. You also have
to consider the terms on which the bets are offered. Suppose that the over requires you to put up $110 to try to win $100, and the under requires you to put up $115 to try to win $100. Thus to
construct the middle, you will invest $225 for each $200 you are hoping to win if the middle hits. (You do not have to buy the two bets in the ratio
of $115 to $110; the final percentage answer will be approximately the same even if you buy a slightly different ratio of the two bets.)
You have a 19.6 percent chance of winning both bets, and if you win both bets you wi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Is 19.6 percent chance of a middle enough return for you to tie up your money for four months? Unfortunately, it’s more complicated than simply deciding whether 19.6 percent is sufficient return on a four-month investment.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff, and honestly, it's a bit confusing with all the numbers and terms. I guess I need to break it down step by step to get a better grasp.

Fir


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You have 100 - 19.6 = 80.4 percent chance of winning one bet and losing the other. That’s 40.2 percent for winning the over and losing the
under, and 40.2 percent for losing the over and winning the under. (Again the split does not have to be exactly 40.2 to 40.2; the final percentage
answer will be about the same as long as the total is 80.4 percent.)
You have 40.2 percent chance of losing the $15 vig on one bet (115 lost on one bet minus 100 won on the other bet), 40.2 percent chance of
losing the $10 vig on the other bet (110 lost on one bet minus 100 won on the other bet), and 19.6 chance of winning both bets for $200. That’s
$39.20 minus $6.03 minus $4.02 for a net expected gain of $29.15, on an investment of $225. Laying out $225 to earn $29.15 is 13 percent return
on investment. Tha

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You have 100 - 19.6 = 80.4 percent chance of winning one bet and losing the other. That’s 40.2 percent for winning the over and losing the
under, and 40.2 percent for losing the over and winning the under.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this sports betting stuff, and honestly, it's a bit confusing with all the numbers and terms. I guess I need to break it down step by step to get a better grasp.


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
I can tell you that if you make bets at -110 and -115 to lock up a one-game NFL middle, you will be earning an
average of 13 percent on a four-month investment. You have to decide for yourself whether 13 percent is sufficient return for tying your money up
on a risky bet for four months. Single Bets on Season Wins
This section presents an analysis of single bets on season wins. Again, I cannot teach you how to figure out how many games any team will
win. But I can help you put numbers on any good season-win bets that you find. Table 11 is for use in the situation where you think a team is going to win a different number of wins than specified in a proposition. The
columns are labeled “excess or shortfall of predicted wins.” If your prediction is for a team to win more than the number of wi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
I can tell you that if you make bets at -110 and -115 to lock up a one-game NFL middle, you will be earning an
average of 13 percent on a four-month investment. You have to decide for yourself whether 13 percent is sufficient return for tying your money up
on a risky bet for four months.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to make sense of this sports betting document. It seems to be about using statistical methods to predict game outcomes and make profitable bets. Let me break it down step by ste


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The
columns are labeled “excess or shortfall of predicted wins.” If your prediction is for a team to win more than the number of wins stated in the prop,
choose the column corresponding to the number of excess wins. If your prediction is for a team to fall short of the number of wins stated in the
prop, choose the column corresponding to the shortfall of wins. Each row of table 11 is for a different number of games to be played in a season. Included are rows for the NFL (16 games), major-league
baseball (162 games) NBA and NHL (82 games), and other rows in case you want to analyze a bet involving a different number of games in a
season. In order to use table 11, you must have your own estimate of how many games a team is likely to win in excess of or less than the number
specified in the p

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The
columns are labeled “excess or shortfall of predicted wins.” If your prediction is for a team to win more than the number of wins stated in the prop,
choose the column corresponding to the number of excess wins. If your prediction is for a team to fall short of the number of wins stated in the
prop, choose the column corresponding to the shortfall of wins.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's see. The user is asking me to refine a knowledge card based on a sports betting document. They provided several excerpts, and I need to extract the most important information from each.


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That is, you must start with an expectation that a team is going to win a certain number of games, and that expectation must
be different from the number specified in the prop. The columns of table 11 cover excess bets from half a game to three games. If your expectation
is that a team is going to win a number of games differing by more than three from the prop, you do not need me to tell you that you have found a
wonderful bet. Example: MLB, One Game Over
Here’s a sample use of table 11. Suppose you think a particular baseball team should be expected to win 82 games, and you have found a

prop allowing you to bet that the team will win more than 80.5 games. Table 11 enables you to find your expected win, and then you can decide
for yourself whether that expected win is high enough for you

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That is, you must start with an expectation that a team is going to win a certain number of games, and that expectation must
be different from the number specified in the prop. The columns of table 11 cover excess bets from half a game to three games.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's try to make sense of this sports betting document. It seems like it's about using statistical methods to predict game outcomes and make profitable bets. Okay, so first, the document men


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Find the row of table 11 that corresponds to a 162-game season. Then find the column headed by 1.5, for the excess wins you are predicting. You should see 59.3. That number means 59.3 percent, and is the probability that your bet will win. Now you need to know the terms of the bet. Is it -110 or -120 or what? Let’s assume -115 just to have a number for working out the arithmetic. If the terms are -115, you wager $115 to try to win $100. There is a 59.3 percent chance you will win your bet, and a 40.7 percent chance you will
lose. 59.3 percent times $100 minus 40.7 percent times $115 yields $12.495 of expected win on the $115 investment. That’s 10.9 percent return,
which ought to be rounded off, so call it 11 percent return. Now the question you must ask yourself: “Is 11 percent return suff

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Find the row of table 11 that corresponds to a 162-game season. Then find the column headed by 1.5, for the excess wins you are predicting.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to make sense of this sports betting document. It seems like it's about using statistical methods to predict game outcomes and make profitable bets. Let me try to break it down


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That’s 10.9 percent return,
which ought to be rounded off, so call it 11 percent return. Now the question you must ask yourself: “Is 11 percent return sufficient for me to tie up my money for six months?” If you say yes, and if you
are confident about the accuracy of your prediction, and if you trust the sportsbook to still be in business six months hence when it comes time to
cash your ticket, then make the bet. Another Use of Table 11
You also can use table 11 to figure out what is the minimum number of games the prop must differ from your prediction to make the bet
worthwhile. For example, suppose your minimum requirement is 10 percent return on bets on NFL total wins, and 15 percent on other sports. (The
difference in requirements is due to the different season lengths.)
For bets at ev

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That’s 10.9 percent return,
which ought to be rounded off, so call it 11 percent return. Now the question you must ask yourself: “Is 11 percent return sufficient for me to tie up my money for six months?” If you say yes, and if you
are confident about the accuracy of your prediction, and if you trust the sportsbook to still be in business six months hence when it comes time to
cash your ticket, th

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to make sense of this sports betting document. It seems like it's about using statistical methods to predict game outcomes and make profitable bets. Let me try to break it down


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
For example, suppose your minimum requirement is 10 percent return on bets on NFL total wins, and 15 percent on other sports. (The
difference in requirements is due to the different season lengths.)
For bets at even money, you earn 10 percent at a win probability of 55.0 percent, and you earn 15 percent at a win probability of 57.5 percent. That tells you that half a game is enough to justify an NFL bet, but at other sports you need a full game in your favor. For bets at -110, you earn 10 percent at a win probability of 57.6 percent, and you earn 15 percent at a win probability of 60.2 percent. Half a
game is still enough for an NFL bet, but now the NBA and NHL require 1.5 games and baseball requires two games. For bets at -120, you earn 10 percent at a win probability of 60.0 percent, and

CURRENT SUMMARY:
For example, suppose your minimum requirement is 10 percent return on bets on NFL total wins, and 15 percent on other sports. (The
difference in requirements is due to the different season lengths.)
For bets at even money, you earn 10 percent at a win probability of 55.0 percent, and you earn 15 percent at a win probability of 57.5 percent.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to make sense of this sports betting document. It seems like it's about using statistical methods to predict game outcomes and make profitable bets. Let me try to break it down


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
At
those terms half a game is barely enough for an NFL bet, and the NBA and NHL require 1.5 games, but baseball requires two games. Another Place to Find the Math
Season-wins math is also available on the Sports: Prop Tool on the Links page of BJ21.com. Sample Problems
Problem 1
There are a number of two- and three-game middles available on major-league baseball season wins. How much are they worth? Assume
that all bets are offered at -110. Problem 2
What are the middles for other sports that are about equally attractive as a three-game middle at baseball? Solutions to Sample Problems
Problem 1
There are a number of two- and three-game middles available on major-league baseball season wins. How much are they worth? Assume
that all bets are offered at-110. The major-league baseball season i

CURRENT SUMMARY:
At
those terms half a game is barely enough for an NFL bet, and the NBA and NHL require 1.5 games, but baseball requires two games. Another Place to Find the Math
Season-wins math is also available on the Sports: Prop Tool on the Links page of BJ21.com.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this step by step. The user has provided a query where they want to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've shared an excerpt that discusses the use of bin


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Table 8 yields probability of middles hitting as 6.3 percent for one game, 12.4 percent for
two games, and 18.4 percent for three games. Constructing a middle involves making two bets at $110 each, for a total investment of $220. If the middle won, the amount won would be
$200. Other bet sizes could be used, providing the ratio of wins to investment is 200/220. A $220 middle containing one game would win $200 6.3 percent of the time and would lose $10 the other 93.7 percent of the time. That’s an
average win of $3.23 on a $220 investment, a return of 1.6 percent. A $220 middle containing two games would win $200 12.4 percent of the time and would lose $10 the other 87.6 percent of the time. That’s
an average win of $16.04 on a $220 investment, a return of 7.3 percent. A $220 middle contain

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Table 8 yields probability of middles hitting as 6.3 percent for one game, 12.4 percent for
two games, and 18.4 percent for three games. Constructing a middle involves making two bets at $110 each, for a total investment of $220.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to work through this step by step. So, the user has provided a query where they are asking to extract the most important information from a given excerpt of a sports betting docume


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That’s
an average win of $28.64 on a $220 investment, a return of 13.0 percent. The method used to get those numbers is approximate, and thus the answers should be rounded off. I suggest using 2 percent, 7 percent,
and 13 percent as the values of baseball middles of one, two, and three games if all bets are made at -110. The problem is you have to tie up your money until October. You have to decide for yourself if you are willing to do that, for an investment of
this risk. Earning 13 percent in six months is fine if it is risk-free, but a three-game middle gives you roughly 18.4 percent chance of winning both
bets and a 81.6 percent chance of winning one bet and losing the other. For me personally, I’d say buying a three-game middle would be worthwhile as long as I am confident that all th

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That’s
an average win of $28.64 on a $220 investment, a return of 13.0 percent. The method used to get those numbers is approximate, and thus the answers should be rounded off.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to work through this step by step. So, the user has provided a query where they are asking to extract the most important information from a given excerpt of a sports betting docume


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
For me personally, I’d say buying a three-game middle would be worthwhile as long as I am confident that all the sportsbooks involved are
going to survive to buy back any winning tickets. I would not invest in baseball season-total middles of less than three games; the expected return
is too small to warrant investing my money for six months. What your minimum requirements are is up to you. Problem 2

What are the middles for other sports that are about equally attractive as a three-game middle at baseball? NFL
The NFL season is 16 games, and lasts for four months. Table 8 says that a one-game middle on NFL games wins about 19.6 percent of the
time. That makes a one-game NFL middle slightly more profitable than a three-game baseball middle. A half-game NFL middle is about as attractive as

CURRENT SUMMARY:
For me personally, I’d say buying a three-game middle would be worthwhile as long as I am confident that all the sportsbooks involved are
going to survive to buy back any winning tickets. I would not invest in baseball season-total middles of less than three games; the expected return
is too small to warrant investing my money for six months.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card based on a sports betting document. They've provided an excerpt and a current summary, and they want it in a specific format with a summary


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A two-game NBA middle is almost as attractive as a three-game baseball middle. The twogame middle will hit 17.4 percent of the time. The math shows that to be a 12 percent return on a six-month investment. NHL
The NHL plays the same length season as the NBA: 82 games in six months. Thus the middle requirements for a worthwhile NHL middle are
the same as for the NBA: a two-game middle will return about 12 percent on a six-month investment.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A two-game NBA middle is almost as attractive as a three-game baseball middle. The twogame middle will hit 17.4 percent of the time.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this query step by step. The user is asking me to refine a knowledge card based on a sports betting document excerpt. They've provided a specific format, so I need to ensure the


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
While visiting the Imperial Palace prior to the start of the 2001 NCAA Basketball Tournament, also known as March Madness, I discovered a
prop bet with over/under numbers for each of six athletic conferences. This sort of problem intrigues me. The analysis is fairly complicated. Each conference was represented by five to seven teams of various
seedings. Take the PAC 10, for example: The prop was whether the total wins of Arizona, California, UCLA, USC, and Stanford would be over or
under 10.5. Stanford was rated #1 in the west, Arizona was #2 in the midwest, UCLA was #4 in the east, USC was #6 in the east, and California
was #8 in the south. So the question I asked myself was: How many wins should typical teams rated #1, #2, #4, #6, and #8 achieve? Tournament Structure
The answer depends o

CURRENT SUMMARY:
While visiting the Imperial Palace prior to the start of the 2001 NCAA Basketball Tournament, also known as March Madness, I discovered a
prop bet with over/under numbers for each of six athletic conferences. This sort of problem intrigues me.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's break down what the user is asking for here. They provided a query where they want to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The excerpt they've given is about a prop be


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The NCAA Basketball Tournament has had the same well-defined structure since
1985, and that structure is the subject of this chapter. As long as the NCAA Basketball Tournament continues to have that structure, the material
in this chapter will continue to apply. This chapter also applies to any other tournament that has the same structure; the sport does not have to be
basketball. There are 64 teams in the tournament, organized into four regional competitions of 16 teams each. The schedule is organized in such a
manner that if all games are won by favorites, the top half of the field will advance in each round, with #1 and #2 in each region meeting to decide
which of them will go to the Final Four. The games also are organized to encourage the advancement of the strongest teams. In the fir

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The NCAA Basketball Tournament has had the same well-defined structure since
1985, and that structure is the subject of this chapter. As long as the NCAA Basketball Tournament continues to have that structure, the material
in this chapter will continue to apply.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. Let me break down what I've got here.

First, the user has provided a query


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
In the first round, the #1 (strongest) seed plays the #16
(weakest) seed, the #2 seed plays the #15 seed, and so on down to the #8 seed playing the #9 seed. In the second round, the winner of #1 vs. #16 plays the winner of #8 vs. #9. The winner of #2 vs. #15 plays the winner of #7 vs. #10. The
winner of #3 vs. #14 plays the winner of #6 vs. #11. And the winner of #4 vs. #13 plays the winner of #5 vs. #12. The third round matches the winner among #1-16-8-9 with the winner among #4-13-5-12. The winner among #6-11-3-14 plays the winner
among #2-15-7-10. The fourth round matches the two winners of the third round. The national finals consist of two games the first night to narrow the field to two teams, and then a final game for the national championship. That’s a total of 63 games played by 6

CURRENT SUMMARY:
In the first round, the #1 (strongest) seed plays the #16
(weakest) seed, the #2 seed plays the #15 seed, and so on down to the #8 seed playing the #9 seed. In the second round, the winner of #1 vs.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. Let me break down the process step by step.

First, I need to understand the u


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The best teams of course would be expected to
win more than one game, and the lowest seeds would be expected to win close to zero games. The team that wins the national championship will have six wins. The runner-up will have five wins. The other two teams in the Final Four
will have four wins. Method
Again, how many wins should typical teams rated #1, #2, #4, #6, and #8 achieve? I sat in the Imperial Palace race book and worked out an approximation of expected wins for each seed in the tournament. My effort was
rewarded with the discovery of a fabulous bet. Since then I have refined the analysis. I assigned arbitrary strength ratings to each of the 16 positions, and then used Excel to translate those strength ratings into probabilities of
winning. The only judgment I used was in the assig

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The best teams of course would be expected to
win more than one game, and the lowest seeds would be expected to win close to zero games. The team that wins the national championship will have six wins.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt from a sports betting document. The goal is to create a concise and informative card that captures the main points


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The only judgment I used was in the assigning of strength ratings; once they were assigned, the numbers of wins for each seed is a matter of
mathematics. The interesting phenomenon, and the reason this chapter exists, is that when I used different sets of strength ratings, I got approximately the
same numbers of wins for each seed. Numbers of expected wins is not terribly sensitive to the particular strength ratings assigned. That means
the same table of expected wins applies to all 64-team tournaments that have this structure. Here is an example of the way the strength ratings are used to generate the probability of winning one game. One first-round game pits seed
#5 against seed #12. Suppose I have assigned strength ratings of 20 to seed #5 and 11 to seed #12. The probabilities of winnin

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The only judgment I used was in the assigning of strength ratings; once they were assigned, the numbers of wins for each seed is a matter of
mathematics. The interesting phenomenon, and the reason this chapter exists, is that when I used different sets of strength ratings, I got approximately the
same numbers of wins for each seed.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I need to help refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt from a sports betting document. The goal is to create a concise and informative card that captures the main points from


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The probabilities of winning subsequent games are more complicated mathematically, but use the same strength ratings. For each team and
each game, the probabilities take into account the strength rating of that team, the probability of the team’s being alive in the tournament to play
that game, the various possible opponents for that game, and the strength ratings of each of those possible opponents. When assigning strength ratings, I assign higher ratings to higher seeds. I assign small differences between the lowest seeds, and I assign
larger differences the higher the seed. I assume the biggest imbalance in strength is between the #1 and #2 seeds. The results are shown in table 12

Different sets of strength ratings yield numbers of expected wins that differ only slightly from those sho

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The probabilities of winning subsequent games are more complicated mathematically, but use the same strength ratings. For each team and
each game, the probabilities take into account the strength rating of that team, the probability of the team’s being alive in the tournament to play
that game, the various possible opponents for that game, and the strength ratings of each of those possible opponen

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt from a sports betting document. The goal is to create a concise and informative card that captures the main points fro


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The only number that
varies very much when the strength ratings are changed is the number of wins for the #1 seed. For the rest of the seeds, starting with a different
set of strength ratings can result in numbers different from those shown in table 12, but there would be only a few differences and all of those
differences would be 0.1 wins. So consider the numbers in table 12 to be estimates that might be off by 0.1 wins for any particular team. The main thing that causes different numbers of wins is how strong the #1 seed is compared to the #2 seed. That’s why table 12 shows a
range of wins for the #1 seed. Use 4.2 for the strongest #1 seed, and less than that, down to as low as 3.7, for weaker #1 seeds. To make the number of wins for all 64 teams come out to exactly 63, the total of win

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The only number that
varies very much when the strength ratings are changed is the number of wins for the #1 seed. For the rest of the seeds, starting with a different
set of strength ratings can result in numbers different from those shown in table 12, but there would be only a few differences and all of those
differences would be 0.1 wins.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this step by step. I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt from a sports betting document. The goal is to create a concise and informative card t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You might be surprised to learn that the expected wins of most of the seeds are not sensitive to the exact strength ratings used. The reason
for the phenomenon is the way the tournament format matches high seeds against low seeds. For example, consider the fate of the eighth seed
and the ninth seed. Those teams are about equally likely to win the game they play against each other in the first round, and then the winner of
that game is likely to lose to the #1 seed. Any reasonable set of strength ratings is going to result in approximately 0.5 of a win for the ninth seed,
and only slightly more than that for the eighth seed. The numbers of expected wins shown in table 12 assume you know nothing about basketball except the seedings of the various teams. If
you know of teams that are stronger

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You might be surprised to learn that the expected wins of most of the seeds are not sensitive to the exact strength ratings used. The reason
for the phenomenon is the way the tournament format matches high seeds against low seeds.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt from a sports betting document. The goal is to create a concise and informative card that captures the main points


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If
you know of teams that are stronger or weaker than indicated by their seedings, you can modify the expected wins to reflect your knowledge. The methodology of this chapter could be used to find expected wins for tournaments with different structures. For example, it could be used
to generate a table of expected wins for tournaments with other than 64 teams. If there is a need to find expected wins for tournaments with other
than the particular 64-team format currently used by the NCAA Basketball Tournament, the best place to look for the table of expected wins is
BJ21.com. Example: PAC 10
Here are the expected-win numbers for the PAC 10 for the 2001 tourney:
For #1 Stanford I assigned 3.9 wins. For #2 Arizona it’s 2.7 wins. #4 UCLA gets 1.3. #6 USC gets 0.8. #8 California gets 0.6. That

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If
you know of teams that are stronger or weaker than indicated by their seedings, you can modify the expected wins to reflect your knowledge. The methodology of this chapter could be used to find expected wins for tournaments with different structures.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt from a sports betting document. The goal is to create a concise and informative card that captures the main points fro


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The next step is to estimate the expected value of PAC 10 under 10.5 wins at -115. For this you can use appendix B. The Poisson
distribution is an approximation that is close enough for this analysis. For 9.3 expected wins, appendix B (with interpolation) says that there is a 67 percent chance that the actual number of wins will be ten or
less. Thus $115 will turn into $215 about 67 percent of the time. 67 percent of $215 is $144. Thus the expectation of under 10.5 wins is to turn
$115 into $144. That’s an expected profit of 25 percent. Overview
One thing you can do is look at the other props to see whether there is any reason to favor an over or under. There have been instances
where race books offered props on total wins where the totals posted have overstated the actual number of games

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The next step is to estimate the expected value of PAC 10 under 10.5 wins at -115. For this you can use appendix B.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt from a sports betting document. The goal is to create a concise and informative card that captures the main points fro


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
In 2001, the Imperial Palace listed prop bets for six conferences comprising a total of 35 teams. There were 64 teams in the tournament, so
there were 29 tournament teams not in any of the six listed conferences. Total wins listed in the props for those six conferences in the 2001 NCAA Basketball Tournament was 57. That leaves 6 wins for the 29
tournament teams not in any of the six listed conferences. The highest-seeded team not in a listed conference was Cincinnati, a #5 seed. Also not listed were three #9 seeds, two #10 seeds, three #11
seeds, and all teams seeded #12 through #16. According to table 12, those unlisted teams were expected to accumulate 10.2 wins. The Imperial Palace totals left 6 wins for the unlisted teams, but the calculations of this chapter say to expect those teams

CURRENT SUMMARY:
In 2001, the Imperial Palace listed prop bets for six conferences comprising a total of 35 teams. There were 64 teams in the tournament, so
there were 29 tournament teams not in any of the six listed conferences.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this step by step. I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt from a sports betting document. The goal is to create a concise and informative card t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Actual total wins by unlisted teams during the 2001 NCAA Basketball Tournament: 16. Back to the PAC 10
Under 10.5 wins for the PAC 10 looks like a good bet, but is not the one I described as “fabulous.”
The final result was the PAC 10 achieved thirteen wins. Arizona accomplished five wins before losing in the final to Duke, Stanford and USC
had three wins apiece, and UCLA had two. So a bet on PAC 10 under 10.5 wins was a loser. Sample Problems
Problem 1
The total for the ACC for the 2001 Tournament was 13.5 wins. You could bet the over at even money and the under at -130. The ACC was
represented by six teams: Duke #1 and a heavy favorite to win the national title, North Carolina #2, Maryland #3, Virginia #5, Wake Forest #7, and
Georgia Tech #8. Is there a good bet involving the ACC’s total

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Actual total wins by unlisted teams during the 2001 NCAA Basketball Tournament: 16. Back to the PAC 10
Under 10.5 wins for the PAC 10 looks like a good bet, but is not the one I described as “fabulous.”
The final result was the PAC 10 achieved thirteen wins.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I need to help refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt from a sports betting document. The goal is to create a concise and informative card that captures the main points from


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You could bet the over at -150 and the under at +120. The SEC was represented
by six teams: Kentucky #2, Mississippi #3, Florida #3, Virginia #5, Arkansas #7, Tennessee #8, and Georgia #8. Is there a good bet involving the
SEC’s total wins? Problem 3
The total for the Big 10 for the 2001 Tournament was 11 wins. You could bet the over at -110 and the under at -120. The Big 10 was
represented by seven teams: Michigan State #1, Illinois #1, Indiana #4, Ohio State #5, Wisconsin #6, Iowa #7, and Penn State #7. Is there a good
bet involving the Big 10’s total wins? Problem 4
The total for the Big 12 for the 2001 Tournament was 7.5 wins. You could bet the over at -115 and the under at -115. The Big 12 was
represented by six teams: Iowa State #2, Kansas #4, Oklahoma #4, Texas #6, Missouri #9, and

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You could bet the over at -150 and the under at +120. The SEC was represented
by six teams: Kentucky #2, Mississippi #3, Florida #3, Virginia #5, Arkansas #7, Tennessee #8, and Georgia #8.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me tackle this step by step. I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt from a sports betting document. The goal is to create a concise and informative card


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Problem 5
The total for the Big East for the 2001 Tournament was 7.5 wins. You could bet the over at -125 and the under at -105. The Big East was
represented by five teams: Boston College #3, Syracuse #5, Notre Dame #6, Georgetown #10, and Providence #10. Is there a good bet involving
the Big East’s total wins? Solutions to Sample Problems
Problem 1
The total for the ACC for the 2001 Tournament was 13.5 wins. You could bet the over at even money and the under at -130. The ACC was
represented by six teams: Duke #1 and a heavy favorite to win the national title, North Carolina #2, Maryland #3, Virginia #5, Wake Forest #7, and
Georgia Tech #8. Is there a good bet involving the ACC’s total wins? Duke was the favorite to win the national championship, so I assigned it a win total of 4.2. The ot

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Problem 5
The total for the Big East for the 2001 Tournament was 7.5 wins. You could bet the over at -125 and the under at -105.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The user has provided a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important informa


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The other SEC teams had expected wins of 2.7,
1.9, 1.0, 0.7, and 0.6 according to table 12, for a conference total of 11.1. When the expected number of wins is 11.1, appendix B says the probability of 13 or fewer wins is .77. Thus under 13.5 wins for the ACC
conference looked like a great bet. This is the bet I described as “fabulous” in the beginning of the chapter. The result: The ACC ended up with two teams in the final four, but not much help from the other four teams. Duke was the national champion
with six wins, Maryland had four wins, and North Carolina had one win, for a total of eleven wins. Thus the under was a winner. Problem 2
The total for the SEC for the 2001 Tournament was 9 wins. You could bet the over at -150 and the under at +120. The SEC was represented
by six teams: Ken

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The other SEC teams had expected wins of 2.7,
1.9, 1.0, 0.7, and 0.6 according to table 12, for a conference total of 11.1. When the expected number of wins is 11.1, appendix B says the probability of 13 or fewer wins is .77.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help create a knowledge card based on a sports betting document. The user has provided an excerpt and a current summary, and they want me to refine it further. Let me see what t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Is there a good bet involving the SEC’s total
wins? Expected wins from table 12 are 2.7, 1.9, 1.9, 0.7, 0.6, and 0.6, for a total of 8.4. Appendix B says to expect 8 or fewer wins 54 percent of the time, and 9 or fewer wins 67 percent of the time. Subtraction from 100 percent
gives the chance of 10 or more wins as 33 percent. 8 wins is a push, so the probability of exactly 8 wins is needed. You can get it either by
subtracting the probability of other than 8 from 100 percent, or you can look in appendix A. Depending on the method you use, you get 13 or 14
percent chance of a tie. The difference is due to rounding error. A wager of $100 on the under will result in a win of $120 with probability .54, and a loss of $100 with probability .33. That’s a 32 percent edge
for betting the under. The

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Is there a good bet involving the SEC’s total
wins? Expected wins from table 12 are 2.7, 1.9, 1.9, 0.7, 0.6, and 0.6, for a total of 8.4.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card about sports betting based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples of how to structure the card, and now they've provided


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The result: Kentucky and Mississippi won two games each, and Florida won one game, so the conference had five wins and the under won. Problem 3
The total for the Big 10 for the 2001 Tournament was 11 wins. You could bet the over at -110 and the under at -120. The Big 10 was
represented by seven teams: Michigan State #1, Illinois #1, Indiana #4, Ohio State #5, Wisconsin #6, Iowa #7, and Penn State #7. Is there a good
bet involving the Big 10’s total wins? For the two #1 teams I used 3.9 and 3.8 expected wins. For the other five teams, table 12 says 1.3, 1.0, 0.8, 0.7, and 0.7. That’s a total of 12.2
expected wins for the Big 10. Appendixes A and B say that for 12.2 expected wins there is a 33 percent chance of 10 or fewer wins, a 44 percent chance of 11 or fewer
wins meaning a 56 percent ch

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The result: Kentucky and Mississippi won two games each, and Florida won one game, so the conference had five wins and the under won. Problem 3
The total for the Big 10 for the 2001 Tournament was 11 wins.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I need to help refine a knowledge card about sports betting based on the provided excerpt. Let me start by understanding the content of the excerpt to extract the most important informatio


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A wager of $110 on the over had a 56 percent chance of winning $100 and a 33 percent chance of losing $110. That’s a net expected profit
of $20 on $110 of bets, or 18 percent return on investment for betting the over. The result: Michigan State won four games, Illinois won three, Penn State won two, and Iowa won one for a total of ten wins for the Big 10. So the over lost. Problem 4
The total for the Big 12 for the 2001 Tournament was 7.5 wins. You could bet the over at -115 and the under at -115. The Big 12 was
represented by six teams: Iowa State #2, Kansas #4, Oklahoma #4, Texas #6, Missouri #9, and Oklahoma State #11. Is there a good bet involving
the Big 12’s total wins? Table 12 gives expected wins of 2.7, 1.3, 1.3, 0.8, 0.5, and 0.5. That’s a total of 7.1 expected wins. Appendixes A

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A wager of $110 on the over had a 56 percent chance of winning $100 and a 33 percent chance of losing $110. That’s a net expected profit
of $20 on $110 of bets, or 18 percent return on investment for betting the over.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card about sports betting based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples of how to structure the card, and now they've provided


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That’s a total of 7.1 expected wins. Appendixes A and B say that when 7.1 wins are expected, there is a 43 percent chance of 6 or fewer wins, a 58 percent chance of 7 or fewer
wins meaning a 42 percent chance of 8 or more wins, and a 15 percent chance of exactly 7 wins. A bet of $115 on the under had a 43 percent chance of winning $100 and a 42 percent chance of losing $115. That’s a net loss of $5 betting
on the under. A bet on the over has an even worse expected result. There was no good bet on total wins for the Big 12. The result: Kansas won two games and Missouri won one, for a total of three for the conference. Problem 5
The total for the Big East for the 2001 Tournament was 5.5 wins. You could bet the over at -125 and the under at -105. The Big East was
represented by five teams: Bo

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That’s a total of 7.1 expected wins. Appendixes A and B say that when 7.1 wins are expected, there is a 43 percent chance of 6 or fewer wins, a 58 percent chance of 7 or fewer
wins meaning a 42 percent chance of 8 or more wins, and a 15 percent chance of exactly 7 wins.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, let's tackle this problem step by step. First, I need to understand the user's request. They want me to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on a given excerpt. The user h


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Table 12 gives expected wins of 1.9, 1.0, 0.8, 0.5, and 0.5. The total is 4.7. Appendix B says five or fewer wins has 67 percent chance of happening, meaning six or more wins has 33 percent chance of happening. An investment of $125 on under has a 67 percent chance of winning $100 and a 33 percent chance of losing $125 That’s a net expected win
of $26 on an investment of $125, or 21 percent return on investment for betting under. The result: Georgetown had two wins, and Boston College, Syracuse, and Notre Dame had one win apiece, for a total of five wins for the
conference. So the under won.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Table 12 gives expected wins of 1.9, 1.0, 0.8, 0.5, and 0.5. The total is 4.7.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card about sports betting based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples of how to structure the card, and now they've provided a


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A term frequently used by sports bettors is home-field advantage. The home team in the NFL has an advantage that averages three points
per game. Linesmakers know about the three-point home-field advantage in the NFL. They build it into the lines. So knowing that the home team has an
average of three points of natural advantage will not help you to win money betting on NFL games. The average might be three points, but the home-field advantage seems to vary from game to game. If you can do a better job of estimating
the home-field advantage in particular games than is built into the lines, you can get an edge over the sportsbooks. Notes:
Edge means home-team edge. Regular season, excluding games on neutral sites
Points Scored
By looking at games played in recent seasons, you can see that the

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A term frequently used by sports bettors is home-field advantage. The home team in the NFL has an advantage that averages three points
per game.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card about sports betting based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples of how to structure the card, and now they've provided


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Take a look at table 13. This table shows the points scored in regular-season games in the National Football League in recent years. Games
at neutral sites are not included. Since there is no bias in scheduling regular-season games that results in playing more games at the homes of better teams, home teams
overall are not stronger than visiting teams. Yet table 13 shows that year after year, in the NFL regular season, home teams score hundreds more points than visiting teams. It’s a
certainty that next season, home teams will once again score hundreds of points more than visiting teams. By looking at the far-right column of table 13, you can see that over the years, the average home-field advantage in the NFL has hovered
around three points per game. For games played in neutral sites, such

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Take a look at table 13. This table shows the points scored in regular-season games in the National Football League in recent years.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card about sports betting based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples of how to structure the card, and now they've provided a


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
For games played in neutral sites, such as those Super Bowls in which both competitors are from out of town and the home team is not
involved, neither team has a home-field advantage. One visiting team might be assigned the home team’s locker room and have its score appear
on the home-team side of the scoreboard, but that does not give it a home-field advantage. Games Won
Table 14 shows how much of a difference those three points per game make in terms of wins and losses. This table lists the number of
victories by NFL home teams and by visitors during the regular season. These are straight-up results, and not results against a point spread. Games at neutral sites are not included. Regular season, excluding games on neutral sites
Whatever the reason for it, the home-field advantage is clea

CURRENT SUMMARY:
For games played in neutral sites, such as those Super Bowls in which both competitors are from out of town and the home team is not
involved, neither team has a home-field advantage. One visiting team might be assigned the home team’s locker room and have its score appear
on the home-team side of the scoreboard, but that does not give it a home-field advantage.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card about sports betting based on the provided excerpt. The user has given me several examples of how to structure the card, and now they've provided a


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Home NFL teams have won dozens
more games per year than have visiting teams. NFL home teams have won 58 or 59 percent of regular-season games in recent years, to 41or 42
percent for the visiting teams. In NFL playoffs, the home teams have won over 70 percent of games straight up. But in playoff games, the team with the better record is
rewarded by having the game played at its home field. Thus you would expect home teams to win more than half of playoff games even if there
were no such thing as a home-field advantage. Playoff games and Super Bowls are not included in table 14. Year after year, home teams win more games than visiting teams. Being the home team makes quite a difference! Three Points
To get another estimate for the magnitude of the NFL home field advantage, I used Excel to aw

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Home NFL teams have won dozens
more games per year than have visiting teams. NFL home teams have won 58 or 59 percent of regular-season games in recent years, to 41or 42
percent for the visiting teams.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help the user refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They provided a specific excerpt from the document, and I need to extract the most important information.


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
I wanted to see how many points I would have to add to bring visiting-team victories in line with home-team victories. The answer is three points. Adding three points to the score of each visiting team of each NFL regular-season game played since 1990
eliminates the disparity between home and visiting NFL teams. Giving each visiting team 2.5 points is not enough; there still is an imbalance of
wins for the home teams; and giving each visiting team 3.5 points swings the pendulum too far, giving too many victories to visiting teams. Table 15 shows what the year-by-year results would have been had all visiting teams been given three points in each regular-season game. Excess wins in the “home” column means the home-field advantage averaged more than three points that year, and excess wins in

CURRENT SUMMARY:
I wanted to see how many points I would have to add to bring visiting-team victories in line with home-team victories. The answer is three points.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure out how to approach this. The user provided a query where they're refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given a specific excerpt from the docum


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The average home-field advantage in the NFL has been three
points for a long time. Regular season, excluding games on neutral sites

Getting an Edge
The average NFL home-field advantage is three points, but that does not mean that the home field favors the home team by three points in
every single game. There might be games for which the home-field advantage is more than three points, balanced out by games in which the
home-field advantage is less than three points. If, for example, the home-field advantage is two points on half the games and four points on the other half of the games, the overall home-field
advantage still would average three points. You might be able to find an occasional good bet by developing an understanding of how the home-field advantage works. This is one of the
ar

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The average home-field advantage in the NFL has been three
points for a long time. Regular season, excluding games on neutral sites

Getting an Edge
The average NFL home-field advantage is three points, but that does not mean that the home field favors the home team by three points in
every single game.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure out how to approach this. The user has provided a query where they're asking for help refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given a specific ex


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
I do not claim to understand how home-field advantage works. Even if I understood it, I would not explain it in this book, because this book
will be read by linesmakers and whatever I write here might be reflected in lines of future games. One important factor in estimating the strength of the home-field seems to be the importance of the game. The more important the game to the
home team’s players, the larger the home-field advantage. Robert Ross shares this idea on page 166 of his 1996 book Betting to Win at Football. Advice From “The Renegade”
You might look at the home field advantage for teams out of playoff contention late in the season. In some cases, these teams should not
be given any points for home field. As always, when handicapping sports you need to look at the particular situ

CURRENT SUMMARY:
I do not claim to understand how home-field advantage works. Even if I understood it, I would not explain it in this book, because this book
will be read by linesmakers and whatever I write here might be reflected in lines of future games.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure out how to approach this. The user has provided a query where they're asking for help refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given a specific ex


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Are the players still playing
hard? Are the fans still coming to the games — a half empty stadium with fans wearing bags over their heads is not inspiring to the home
boys. Is the coach about to be fired and getting his resume ready for the next job? In the second half of the season, I always look at each team’s particular situation before I assign a home field value. I may give extra
points to good teams, average points to mediocre teams, and few or none to the really bad teams. By the way, I didn’t come up with this idea myself. I got it from reading Lem Banker’s Book on Sports Betting back in the mid-1980s. This
guy is a legend and one of my heroes. Anybody who can make money betting sports for 40 years obviously knows a few things. Advice From “Big Player”
Home-field advantage can best

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Are the players still playing
hard? Are the fans still coming to the games — a half empty stadium with fans wearing bags over their heads is not inspiring to the home
boys.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt. Let me start by understanding what the user is asking for.

They've provided a specifi


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Advice From “Big Player”
Home-field advantage can best be judged by comparing other factors when applied to specific teams. For example comparing:
Turf teams/grass teams
Start of season/end of season
Winning teams/losing teams
Strong playoff hopes/playing out the string
Young, excitable players/unemotional overpaid veterans
Loud, emotional fans/quiet, corporate fans
Usually great weather/usually horrible weather
High-scoring teams/low-scoring teams
I think that many of these factors applied to various point totals would yield some interesting data. I’m sure there are more factors that
haven’t just popped into my head. Kansas City, for example, over the years has had a typically strong home-field advantage. What factors are the reason? How does offense/defense play design match this? Stadiu

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Advice From “Big Player”
Home-field advantage can best be judged by comparing other factors when applied to specific teams. For example comparing:
Turf teams/grass teams
Start of season/end of season
Winning teams/losing teams
Strong playoff hopes/playing out the string
Young, excitable players/unemotional overpaid veterans
Loud, emotional fans/quiet, corporate fans
Usually great weather/usually h

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The user has provided a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important in


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Food for thought. Advice From Frank Polo
Have you ever listened to an oddsmaker? They know the subsurfaces at the various fields. They know what time the tide comes in in
San Francisco because it softens the playing surface. They know the average wind speeds and temperatures in Buffalo by the day. They
factor in their knowledge into the sides and totals numbers. When you say that if you figured it out you wouldn’t put it in the book because the
oddsmaker would adjust you are shortchanging their skills — they have already been to where you want to be! I have had the good fortune to
listen to Ken White carefully explain how sharp the oddsmaker is in understanding home-field advantage. They look at it from every angle
and have all the data and statisticians they need to do their thing. Conclu

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Food for thought. Advice From Frank Polo
Have you ever listened to an oddsmaker?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to figure out how to help the user refine their knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've been providing different excerpts, and each time, they want it in a specifi


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Conclusion
I think the home-field advantage is an area ripe for finding good bets. My advice if you look for an edge in this area is to keep in mind that the
average home-field advantage in the NFL has been three points over the years, and likely will stay around three points in the future. If you can
find a category of team for which the home-field advantage is less than three points, then there must be a counterbalancing category of team for
which the home-field advantage is more than three points. I can give you a hint to narrow your search for factors that help explain home-field advantage: I live near the ocean, and high tides do not
water my lawn.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Conclusion
I think the home-field advantage is an area ripe for finding good bets. My advice if you look for an edge in this area is to keep in mind that the
average home-field advantage in the NFL has been three points over the years, and likely will stay around three points in the future.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's break this down. The user is asking me to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt and a previous summary, and they want the same struc


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Table 16 contains won-lost records against the spread for NFL games. It includes both regular season and playoff games, but not games
played on neutral fields, such as Super Bowls. For the 2005 season it includes New Orleans home games played at Baton Rouge but not New
Orleans “home” games played farther from New Orleans. Each row is one year of games. Each set of columns is the spread of the game from the viewpoint of the home team. Where a tie against the spread is possible, the spread has three columns: home team covers, visiting team covers, and ties against the
spread. Where a tie against the spread is not possible, meaning when the spread includes a half point, there are columns for home team covers and
visiting team covers, but no column for ties. An example: Find the part of table

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Table 16 contains won-lost records against the spread for NFL games. It includes both regular season and playoff games, but not games
played on neutral fields, such as Super Bowls.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You should find 2-4-0. Those numbers mean there were two games in which the home
team was a 7-point dog and covered the spread, four games in which the home team was a 7-point dog but failed to cover, and no games in
which the home team was a 7-point dog and lost by exactly seven. Another example: Find the part of table 16 that gives the record against the spread of home teams that were 6.5-point favorites during the
year 2003. Look for the row labeled 2003 and the column labeled -6.5. You should find 7-3. Those numbers mean there were seven games in
which the home team was a 6.5-point favorite and covered the spread, and there were three games in which the home team was a 6.5-point
favorite but failed to cover. There is no third number because there are no half points in football, and thu

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You should find 2-4-0. Those numbers mean there were two games in which the home
team was a 7-point dog and covered the spread, four games in which the home team was a 7-point dog but failed to cover, and no games in
which the home team was a 7-point dog and lost by exactly seven.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important informa


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The totals in the last column of the fifth page are the totals over all five pages. Have fun examining this table. You can use it to verify or refute some common beliefs about betting NFL games. For example, some sharp bettors believe that it is smarter to take the points than to bet the favorite. You can examine table 16 to see how
betting the dogs has done. Another example: Some sharp bettors think that double-digit dogs are better bets than double-digit favorites. The data in table 16 can be
used to examine that idea.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The totals in the last column of the fifth page are the totals over all five pages. Have fun examining this table.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info