Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
There are two common ways of betting on NFL games: against the spread and money line. Against the spread means one team receives points for the purpose of settling the bet. With the money line, winning the game means winning the bet. Think of the money line as meaning zero points are assigned to either team. In a world of efficient betting lines, the relationship between the spread and the money line should reflect exactly the chances the two bets
have of winning. However, the world of sports bets is not that efficient. Oftentimes one bet is superior to the other in terms of expected win. If you have spent any time in sportsbooks, you probably have seen the numbers on the board change. Your own bets may well have caused
books to change numbers. When you have seen a change in the spread, di

CURRENT SUMMARY:
There are two common ways of betting on NFL games: against the spread and money line. Against the spread means one team receives points for the purpose of settling the bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
When you have seen a change in the spread, did the money line also change simultaneously? If your experience
parallels my own, the answer is “no.” What appears to happen is when a book moves a point spread in response to betting action, it does not also
simultaneously move the money line. It’s a wise shopper who, when presented with two ways to purchase the same item, chooses the lower price. This applies to football bets too, but only if the two teams are fairly evenly matched, neither being favored by more than three points or so. Then the amount risked is of the same order of magnitude as the amount you are trying to win, so the risk for betting the money line is comparable
to the risk betting against the spread. For games predicted to be more lopsided, risk becomes a bigger considerati

CURRENT SUMMARY:
When you have seen a change in the spread, did the money line also change simultaneously? If your experience
parallels my own, the answer is “no.” What appears to happen is when a book moves a point spread in response to betting action, it does not also
simultaneously move the money line.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important informa


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A money-line bet on a big dog means winning a lot when you win, but not winning very often. To relate the money line to the spread, you need to examine how frequently games are won by particular numbers. Frequencies of Pushes: Raw Data
One of the pieces of information needed is how frequently a game will end up a push against the spread. An example of game that was a
push against the spread is Super Bowl XXXIV: St. Louis was favored by seven over Tennessee, and the final score was St. Louis 23, Tennessee
16. Table 19 shows the frequencies with which bets on NFL teams have ended in pushes against the spread in recent years. All regular-season
and playoff games are included in table 19, including Super Bowls. The frequencies are expressed as fractions. Each denominator in each fraction in ta

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A money-line bet on a big dog means winning a lot when you win, but not winning very often. To relate the money line to the spread, you need to examine how frequently games are won by particular numbers.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Each denominator in each fraction in table 19 is the number of games in which one team was favored by the number at the head of the
column, plus or minus two points. The numerator is the number of games (looking at only the games represented in the denominator) in which the
favorite won by exactly the number at the top of the column. For example, in the column of table 19 headed “3,” each table entry is the fraction of
teams favored by 1 to 5 (inclusive) that won by exactly 3. All games

The reason for the plus or minus one or two points is to broaden the sample size. There are too few games with one team favored by exactly
a given number points to achieve any precision in estimation of frequency of pushes. The printed version of this book also has tables 17 and 18, which are similar to ta

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Each denominator in each fraction in table 19 is the number of games in which one team was favored by the number at the head of the
column, plus or minus two points. The numerator is the number of games (looking at only the games represented in the denominator) in which the
favorite won by exactly the number at the top of the column.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important informa


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Table 17
includes only those games in which one team was favored by exactly the number at the head of the column. Table 18 includes only those games
in which one team is favored by that number plus or minus one point. I have omitted tables 17 and 18 from this book because they add no extra
information to what is covered in table 19. The column of table 19 headed “2” includes teams favored by 0 to 4. In pick ’em games, both teams are favored by 0. Thus each pick ’em
game is included twice for the column of table 18 headed “1” and the column of table 19 headed “2,” once for the home team and once for the
visiting team. The same logic applies to the column headed “1” in table 19. That column in table 19 includes teams going off at -1 to +3. That means all
pick ’em games and all games in which

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Table 17
includes only those games in which one team was favored by exactly the number at the head of the column. Table 18 includes only those games
in which one team is favored by that number plus or minus one point.

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Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

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Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That means all
pick ’em games and all games in which one team is favored by 1 are included twice for the column of table 19 headed “1,” once for the home
team and once for the visiting team. Frequencies of Pushes: Indexes
The data of table 19 are summarized in table 20. Some subjectiveness is involved here. My intention in creating table 20 was to select the
integers that I think best represent the frequency of pushes in this year’s NFL season. You are welcome to combine more or fewer years of past
data from table 19, and to weight one table more than the other two, to come up with your own version of table 20. Table 20 shows that shopping for a better line has the most value for spreads of 3, 7, 10, 14, and 17. Pushing on 3 has been happening about ten percent of the time when one team is

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That means all
pick ’em games and all games in which one team is favored by 1 are included twice for the column of table 19 headed “1,” once for the home
team and once for the visiting team. Frequencies of Pushes: Indexes
The data of table 19 are summarized in table 20.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If the dog wins by 3, the bet is not a push. Some football handicapping
publications quote a sixteen percent chance of a game’s ending in a difference of 3, but they get that sixteen percent by also including games on
which dogs win by 3. Buying a Half Point
One use of table 20 is to decide whether to buy a half point. Some sportsbooks allow you to move the spread a half point in exchange for
making the bet at -120 instead of -110. For example, if a team is -7, you have the option of betting it at -6.5 -120. The break-even point for buying a half point for ten cents is five percent chance of occurrence. Buying a half point is worthwhile for those
numbers that table 20 lists as occurring more frequently than five percent of the time. Buying a 3
If you can pay ten or fifteen cents to buy a h

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If the dog wins by 3, the bet is not a push. Some football handicapping
publications quote a sixteen percent chance of a game’s ending in a difference of 3, but they get that sixteen percent by also including games on
which dogs win by 3.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important informa


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The
break-even point for buying a push or win on a 3 is twenty cents. There are four situations for which it’s worthwhile paying fifteen cents or less to
buy a half point: to go from -3.5 to -3, to go from -3 to -2.5, to go from +2.5 to +3, and to go from +3 to +3.5. Buying Other Numbers
Buying a half point for ten cents when the spread is 7, 10, 14, or 17 is approximately break-even. It’s not worth paying ten cents for a half point on any numbers except 3, 7, 10, 14, and 17. NFL Only
The above advice on buying half points depends on the probability that a game will end in a push against the spread. The game-results data
describe only the National Football League. Thus the half-point advice applies only to NFL games and not to any other professional football
games and not to college games.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The
break-even point for buying a push or win on a 3 is twenty cents. There are four situations for which it’s worthwhile paying fifteen cents or less to
buy a half point: to go from -3.5 to -3, to go from -3 to -2.5, to go from +2.5 to +3, and to go from +3 to +3.5.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Using Table 20
You can use table 20 to evaluate maverick lines and for putting win rates on picks for which you have your own line; the same analysis
applies in both cases. How much of a difference is required for you to overcome the vig inherent in risking $110 to win $100? Answer: You must overcome 4.55
percent to break even. How does this relate to table 20? Answer: You have an edge on a bet if table 20 says you are gaining 5 percent or more. For example: Suppose your handicapping tells you that an NFL team should be -6, but you find a sportsbook offering -4. If you really believe
your -6 number is accurate, do you have an edge backing your team at -4? Analysis: By getting a team at -4 instead of -6, you pick up a push on 4, a win instead of a push on 6, and a win instead of a loss on 5

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Using Table 20
You can use table 20 to evaluate maverick lines and for putting win rates on picks for which you have your own line; the same analysis
applies in both cases. How much of a difference is required for you to overcome the vig inherent in risking $110 to win $100?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important informa


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You pick up one 4, two 5s, and one 6, for a total of ten percent. That ten percent handily overcomes the 4.55 percent vig you face in
betting at -110. If your handicapping is accurate, you have an edge of about 5.5 percent on that bet. The reason the 5 counts double in the above analysis: By betting your team at -4 instead of -6, you win on a 5 instead of losing on it. You
gain 2 percent on the win and also gain a 2 percent reduction in losses. By contrast, consider the 6: By making the bet at -4, you have brought in a win on a 6, gaining you three percent. But there is no second three
percent. You did not reduce your losses by three percent because a bet at -6 would not have lost if the final score showed a win by 6. You also can use table 20 to evaluate middles and sides, which involve b

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You pick up one 4, two 5s, and one 6, for a total of ten percent. That ten percent handily overcomes the 4.55 percent vig you face in
betting at -110.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You also can use table 20 to evaluate middles and sides, which involve betting both sides of one game at different spreads. If you have
found two different lines for the same game, and that gets you to thinking about betting equal amounts on both sides to lock in a win, be aware
that to overcome the vig you need 4.55 percent for each bet, which is the same thing as 9.10 percent of one bet. Key Number: 3
Example: Suppose the line on the Steelers is -3 at one book and -2.5 at another. The difference between Steelers -3 and Steelers -2.5 is the
latter is a win instead of a push if the Steelers win by exactly three points. Table 20 says that has a 10 percent chance of happening, and 10
percent is the minimum you need to have the expectation of breaking even betting equal amounts on both teams

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You also can use table 20 to evaluate middles and sides, which involve betting both sides of one game at different spreads. If you have
found two different lines for the same game, and that gets you to thinking about betting equal amounts on both sides to lock in a win, be aware
that to overcome the vig you need 4.55 percent for each bet, which is the same thing as 9.10 percent of one bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
vig on one bet. The arithmetic shows that on average you will gain about 0.5 percent on that bet combo. (I got 0.455 percent and rounded.) That’s
half a percent, or $1 of profit per $200 of bets. When you find a combination of bets that gives you an edge, I suggest figuring out which of the bets is the better one and making only that
bet, instead of betting both sides. For example, suppose you know the Steelers should be -3 because they are -3 everywhere you look. The
money line on -3 NFL teams generally is -155, so checking the money line can tell you how solid is the -3 in question. Maybe the money line will
say Steelers -150, which means they are closer to -2.5 than they are to -3.5. If you think Steelers at -2.5 is the good bet, then bet only the Steelers
at -2.5 and do not also bet th

CURRENT SUMMARY:
vig on one bet. The arithmetic shows that on average you will gain about 0.5 percent on that bet combo.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you think Steelers at -2.5 is the good bet, then bet only the Steelers
at -2.5 and do not also bet their opponents at +3. If the chance of a push is 10 percent and otherwise the Steelers have an equal chance of
covering or not covering the spread, for every $110 on the Steelers -2.5 you have 55 percent chance of winning $100 and 45 percent chance of
losing $110. That works out to 5 percent return on your investment, which is considerably higher than the half percent you would earn by betting
both teams. If the Steelers are -150 on the money line, then your edge betting them at -2.5 will be less than 5 percent but still greater than the half
percent you would have from betting both teams. As table 21 shows, the approximate equivalent to Steelers -3 is Steelers -2.5 -130. The break-even p

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you think Steelers at -2.5 is the good bet, then bet only the Steelers
at -2.5 and do not also bet their opponents at +3. If the chance of a push is 10 percent and otherwise the Steelers have an equal chance of
covering or not covering the spread, for every $110 on the Steelers -2.5 you have 55 percent chance of winning $100 and 45 percent chance of
losing $110.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The break-even point for a single bet (not for the two bets
involved in creating a middle) when the true line is Steelers -3 is to find Steelers -2.5 -120; and the break-even point on the opponent is +3.5 -120. Thus combining one team at -2.5 -120 and its opponent at +3.5 -120 yields a break-even middle. If you can bet one team at -2.5 and its opponent at +3.5, with both bets at the standard -110, the two-bet combo gives you a 5 percent edge
over the sportsbook, which is about the same as the 4.55 percent edge that the sportsbook enjoys when it books bets at -110. Suppose the spread on a game is 3 all over town, except at one sportsbook. Suppose that either you have no handicapping opinion on the
game, or you agree that the spread should be 3. The value of gaining a push or a win on 3 by b

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The break-even point for a single bet (not for the two bets
involved in creating a middle) when the true line is Steelers -3 is to find Steelers -2.5 -120; and the break-even point on the opponent is +3.5 -120. Thus combining one team at -2.5 -120 and its opponent at +3.5 -120 yields a break-even middle.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The line should be 3 and you can bet one of the teams at +3.5
2. The line should be 3 and you can bet one of the teams at -2.5
3. The line should be -3.5 and you can bet the team at -3, and
4. The line should be +2.5 and you can bet the team at +3. In each of those cases you are gaining about five percent of a bet. You are gaining slightly more in cases 1 and 2 above because the value
applies to your bet (say $110), whereas in cases 3 and 4 the value applies to the amount (say $100) that you are trying to win. In summary, when the line on an NFL game should be around 3, being able to bet a line that is a half point off is to turn the tables if you can
gain a win or a push on the 3; you will have an edge of the same magnitude as the book normally enjoys when it books bets at -110. Key Numbe

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The line should be 3 and you can bet one of the teams at +3.5
2. The line should be 3 and you can bet one of the teams at -2.5
3.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important informa


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Key Numbers Other Than 3
The spreads at which you can approximately break even by betting one team when you find a half-point in your favor are 7, 10, 14, and 17. For example, if a team should be -7 and you can find it for -6.5, the -6.5 is a break-even bet. You do not have a break-even two-bet combination with a half-point side involving 7, 10, 14, or 17 because you need to pick up 5 percent for
each bet you make. If you bet one team at -6.5 and the other at +7, on average you lose because the 7 occurs often enough to balance the vig on
just one of your bets. Middles around the 7, 10, 14, and 17 are approximately break-even. For example, betting one team at -6.5 and its opponent at +7.5 is
approximately break-even. In summary, when the line on an NFL game should be around 7, 10, 14, and 1

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Key Numbers Other Than 3
The spreads at which you can approximately break even by betting one team when you find a half-point in your favor are 7, 10, 14, and 17. For example, if a team should be -7 and you can find it for -6.5, the -6.5 is a break-even bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
In summary, when the line on an NFL game should be around 7, 10, 14, and 17, finding a line that is a half point off is to find a break-even bet
if the half point gives you a win or a push on the 7, 10, 14, and 17. Other Numbers
You need a larger difference to break even on bets (or middles) involving numbers other than 3, 7, 10, 14, and 17. Table 20 can help you to
determine whether a bet or a middle is profitable. Example: Suppose the Chargers are playing the Chiefs, and you find Chargers -4.5 at one sportsbook and Chiefs +6 at another. Is this a
profitable middle? From table 20 you can see that 4.5 to 5 gives you 2 percent for gaining a push on 5. From 5 to 5.5 gains you another 2 percent
for turning a push on 5 into a winner. From 5.5 to 6 gains you 3 percent for picking up a push on 6

CURRENT SUMMARY:
In summary, when the line on an NFL game should be around 7, 10, 14, and 17, finding a line that is a half point off is to find a break-even bet
if the half point gives you a win or a push on the 7, 10, 14, and 17. Other Numbers
You need a larger difference to break even on bets (or middles) involving numbers other than 3, 7, 10, 14, and 17.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure out how to approach this task. The user has given me a series of excerpts from sports betting documents and wants me to refine a knowledge card based on each of these exc


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But for
a two-bet combo you need 10 percent of a bet (meaning five percent average per bet) to have an edge. Combining a bet on one team at -4.5 with
a bet on the other at +6 will cost you money in the long run because final spreads of 5 and 6 happen too infrequently to offset the vig. Perhaps your handicapping can help you identify one team as being a good bet. Or perhaps you have found a maverick line. If the line
should be Chargers -4.5 or -5 then a bet on Chiefs +6 should have a positive EV. If the line should be Chargers -6 then a bet on Chargers -4.5
should have a positive EV. But if the line should be Chargers -5.5, then neither Chargers -4.5 nor Chiefs +6 is a good bet. If you estimate the amount of your edge with the help of table 20, remember to subtract the vig, which is 4.55 pe

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But for
a two-bet combo you need 10 percent of a bet (meaning five percent average per bet) to have an edge. Combining a bet on one team at -4.5 with
a bet on the other at +6 will cost you money in the long run because final spreads of 5 and 6 happen too infrequently to offset the vig.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important informa


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
In general, for numbers other than 3, 7, 10, 14, and 17, finding a maverick line that is a full point off what it should be is to find a break-even
bet. There are some exceptions. The numbers 0, 2, 8, 9, 12, and 13 occur too seldom to make a worthwhile bet out of a maverick line that is only
one point off what it should be. The zero is worthless; if the line should be Jets -1 and you find Jets +1, you have not found a rogue line that is strong enough to overcome
the sportsbook’s vig. Games Predicted to be Close
Suppose your handicapping skills identify an NFL game worthy of betting. When you visit a sportsbook to make your bet, you probably will
have more than one option. For example, you might see your team with a spread of +3, and also as +140 on the money line. If you take the +3, you w

CURRENT SUMMARY:
In general, for numbers other than 3, 7, 10, 14, and 17, finding a maverick line that is a full point off what it should be is to find a break-even
bet. There are some exceptions.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you take the +3, you will wager $110 in the attempt to win $100, and your bet will be decided by adding three points to the final score
achieved by your team. If you take them on the money line, you will wager $100 in the attempt to win $140, and your bet will be decided by who wins the game
outright, no points added in. ($100 is used to simplify the arithmetic. You could bet $110 on the money line, to try to win $154.)
There are two differences between taking the points and betting the money line: 1. The amount of money you stand to win is different. 2. If the
favorite wins the game but fails to cover the spread, favorite bettors collect on their money line bets while dog bettors collect on bets against the
spread. Suppose you like an NFL team that is +3. What is the money-line equival

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you take the +3, you will wager $110 in the attempt to win $100, and your bet will be decided by adding three points to the final score
achieved by your team. If you take them on the money line, you will wager $100 in the attempt to win $140, and your bet will be decided by who wins the game
outright, no points added in.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They provided an excerpt and a current summary, and now they want me to create an improved version. I need to


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The only difference between betting against the spread and betting the money line is what happens when the favorite wins but does not
cover the spread. If you can put frequencies on that, then you can find the theoretical relationship between spread and money line. Relating Spread to Money Lines
Table 21 relates spreads and money lines for NFL games with spreads of +3.5 to -3.5. Only three pieces of information are used to construct table 21, and all three come from table 20: For NFL games predicted to be close, the
chance of the favorite’s winning by one point has been about 2 percent, the chance of the favorite’s winning by two points has been about 2
percent, and the chance of the favorite’s winning by three points has been about 10 percent. As long as those three numbers continue to ap

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The only difference between betting against the spread and betting the money line is what happens when the favorite wins but does not
cover the spread. If you can put frequencies on that, then you can find the theoretical relationship between spread and money line.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure out how to approach this task. The user has provided a series of excerpts from sports betting documents and wants me to refine a knowledge card based on each of these exc


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The first column of table 21 is percentage of wins. The second column of table 21 is money lines. Each percentage of wins is associated with a particular money line. The third column of table 21 is spreads. Each spread is associated with a particular percentage of wins, and hence a particular money line. Think of the first column as being the minimum chance of winning required for the associated bets on the money line and against the spread
to break even. For example, consider a team that you can bet at a spread of -1.5. A bet at -1.5 will win if the team wins by two points or more. A bet at -1.5
will lose if the team loses or ties or wins by a single point. Suppose you think a team should be favored by precisely 2.5 points. That means you think there is a 50 percent chance that the team w

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The first column of table 21 is percentage of wins. The second column of table 21 is money lines.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That means you think there is a 50 percent chance that the team will
win by three or more points. The historical record indicates that there is a 2 percent chance that the team will win by exactly two points, and a 2
percent chance that the team will win by exactly one point. Thus the team you handicap as being a 2.5-point NFL favorite should have a 54
percent chance of winning the game straight up. That’s an example of the logic used to construct table 21. Predicting an NFL team to be a 2.5 favorite is equivalent to predicting that the team
has a 54 percent chance of winning the game outright. If you look at the row of table 21 with 54.0 percent in column 1, you will see “-2.5 EV.”
To break even when you must risk $110 to win $100, you need an extra 2.5 percent wins. This fact is incorpor

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That means you think there is a 50 percent chance that the team will
win by three or more points. The historical record indicates that there is a 2 percent chance that the team will win by exactly two points, and a 2
percent chance that the team will win by exactly one point.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
For example,
-2.5 -110 requires 56.5 percent wins, which is 2.5 percentage points more than the 54.0 percent wins associated with -2.5 EV. Each probability of winning is associated with a particular money line. For example, 54 percent probability of winning means 46 percent
probability of losing, and the ratio of 54 to 46 is 1.17. For a bet on the favorite, that means a money line of -117. For a bet on the dog, that means a
money line of +117. Higher is Better
Table 21 can be used for guidance in choosing between multiple ways to bet the same team. Higher in the table is better. For example, table 21 can aid in choosing between a team at +3 -110 or the money line at +140. You have to interpolate to find the win

percentage for +140. Table 21 says the +140 is the better bet, 41.7 percent to

CURRENT SUMMARY:
For example,
-2.5 -110 requires 56.5 percent wins, which is 2.5 percentage points more than the 54.0 percent wins associated with -2.5 EV. Each probability of winning is associated with a particular money line.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to work through this problem step by step. So, the user has provided a series of excerpts from sports betting documents and wants me to refine a knowledge card based on each of the


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Another example: One weekend there was a choice of Miami +2.5 or Miami+115 on the money line. The +115 needs 46.5 percent wins to
break even; +2.5 -110 needs 48.5 percent wins to break even. Thus Miami +115 was the better bet, by about 2.0 percent of a win. Gaining 2.0 percent of wins means also having 2.0 percent less in the way of losses, a total swing of 4.0 percent. That offsets a good portion
of the 4.55 percent vig that sportsbooks earn for accepting bets at -110. NFL Only
Table 21 applies only to the NFL. The money-line equivalent of a +3 spread depends on the frequency with which the favorite wins by
exactly 1, exactly 2, or exactly 3. It also depends on the frequency of a tie game. In the NFL, those frequencies are 2 percent, 2 percent, 10
percent, and close to zero chance of a ti

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Another example: One weekend there was a choice of Miami +2.5 or Miami+115 on the money line. The +115 needs 46.5 percent wins to
break even; +2.5 -110 needs 48.5 percent wins to break even.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
All games except those on neutral sites

Data From NFL Games
Table 22 presents detailed historical data linking spreads to money lines for NFL regular season and playoff games. Super Bowls are not

included, because they are played on neutral fields. Other games played on neutral fields are also excluded. The data are wins and losses straight up, and not results against the spread. The spread is used only to put each game into the correct
column. The column headings are the spread from the viewpoint of the home team. My original purpose for gathering the data in table 22 was to create a table of trade-offs between spreads and money lines. But the sample
sizes in table 22 are so small that I decided against creating such a table from these data, and instead used a different methodology to c

CURRENT SUMMARY:
All games except those on neutral sites

Data From NFL Games
Table 22 presents detailed historical data linking spreads to money lines for NFL regular season and playoff games. Super Bowls are not

included, because they are played on neutral fields.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, I need to create a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the provided excerpt. Let me start by understanding what the user is asking for. They want me to extract the most importa


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
I do think the data in table 22 are interesting, and thus have included them in this book though I make no use of them myself. If you use
table 22 to create your own table of tradeoffs of money line and spread, keep in mind that the numbers in your table will contain a lot of sampling
error. In general, the frequencies of wins and losses as shown in table 22 are in agreement with the money lines offered by sportsbooks. There are
point spreads for which the recent historical record shows excess wins for the favorite or for the dog, but the differences between actual results
and money lines offered by sportsbooks are in line with what one would expect if the results were generated randomly. Sample Problems
Problem 1
Primm Valley has the Vikings PK +110. Most other sportsbooks show the Viking

CURRENT SUMMARY:
I do think the data in table 22 are interesting, and thus have included them in this book though I make no use of them myself. If you use
table 22 to create your own table of tradeoffs of money line and spread, keep in mind that the numbers in your table will contain a lot of sampling
error.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt from the document, and they want me to extract the most important info


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Which is better, +3 or +135? Problem 3
Most of the time when an NFL team is -3, the money line is -155. Which is better, -3 or -155? Problem 4
Some sportsbooks allow you to buy a half point for a dime. Is it worthwhile to pay a dime for a half point involving a 3, assuming you can find a
book that will sell it? Problem 5
Ohio State is favored to beat Wisconsin by three points at almost every sportsbook in Las Vegas. One book offers Wisconsin +4. Do you have an
edge on that bet, and if so, how much? Problem 6
One sportsbook allows you to bet at -105 instead of -110, but another sportsbook shows the game at a half-point better line. Is it better to bet at 105, or take the half point? Solutions to Sample Problems
Problem 1
Primm Valley has the Vikings PK +110. Most other sportsbooks show the

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Which is better, +3 or +135? Problem 3
Most of the time when an NFL team is -3, the money line is -155.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a series of excerpts from the document and a current summary, and they want me to create


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
to taking three points at -110. Problem 3
Most of the time when an NFL team is -3, the money line is -155. Which is better, -3 or-155? Table 21 shows that -3 -110 is the equivalent of a money line of about -160. Thus a money line of -155 is slightly better than giving up three
points. Interpolation in table 21 yields the break-even point for -155 on the money line as about 60.8 percent wins. The breakeven point for a spread
of -3 is 61.5 percent wins. That’s 0.7 percent more wins and 0.7 percent fewer losses, so your expectation is to win about 1.4 percent more betting
the money line at -155 compared to giving three points at -110. Problem 4
Some sportsbooks allow you to buy a half point for a dime. Is it worthwhile to pay a dime for a half point involving a 3, assuming you can find
a book

CURRENT SUMMARY:
to taking three points at -110. Problem 3
Most of the time when an NFL team is -3, the money line is -155.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt from the document and want me to extract the most important informatio


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
And you would much rather have +3 -120 than +2.5 110. And you would much rather have -2.5 -120 than -3 -110. And you would much rather have -3 -120 than -3.5 -110. In each case the difference
is 2.5 percent more wins and 2.5 percent less losses, for a total swing of 5.0 percent. Problem 5
Ohio State is favored to beat Wisconsin by three points at almost every sportsbook in Las Vegas. One book offers Wisconsin +4. Do you
have an edge on that bet, and if so, how much? The data presented in this chapter apply only to NFL games. Problem 6
One sportsbook allows you to bet at -105 instead of -110, but another sportsbook shows the game at a half-point better line. Is it better to bet
at -105, or take the half point? Depending on which half point is involved, sometimes the -105 is better, and some

CURRENT SUMMARY:
And you would much rather have +3 -120 than +2.5 110. And you would much rather have -2.5 -120 than -3 -110.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided me with a specific excerpt and want me to extract the most important information. The use


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
For a half point involving a number with frequency 3 percent or greater, the half point is more valuable. For a half point involving a number with
frequency 2 percent or lower, the -105 is more valuable. Take the half point if it means picking up a tie or win on 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 14, 16, or 17. Do not take the half point if it involves any other integer. Example: -5.5 -110 is more valuable than -6 -105. Example: +1 -105 is more valuable than +1.5 -110.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
For a half point involving a number with frequency 3 percent or greater, the half point is more valuable. For a half point involving a number with
frequency 2 percent or lower, the -105 is more valuable.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt and want me to extract the most important information. The user has be


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
On NFL games, you can bet on more than just which team will win; you also can bet on how many points the two teams will score. The
sportsbook posts an estimate of how many points it thinks will be scored; that number is called the total. You can bet that the sum of the points of
both teams will be greater than the total; that bet is called the over. And you can bet that the points scored by both teams will be less than the total;
that bet is called the under. Generally there is a minimum number of minutes that must be played for totals to have action; if the game is called early for whatever reason,
all money wagered on totals is returned to the bettors. Points scored in overtime count for deciding over and under bets. If the sum of the final scores falls right on the total, there is no mo

CURRENT SUMMARY:
On NFL games, you can bet on more than just which team will win; you also can bet on how many points the two teams will score. The
sportsbook posts an estimate of how many points it thinks will be scored; that number is called the total.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided me with a specific excerpt and want me to extract the most important information. The use


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you are capable of making or finding a good line on a game, you might be able to find a good bet on a total. Totals have the reputation of
being easier to beat than sides. Totals of Totals
Table 23 is a compilation of the frequency of totals for NFL games played in recent years. The table includes all regular-season and playoff
games except for Super Bowls, which were left out because they have tended to be higher scoring than the average game. All games except Super Bowls

Some totals are more common than others. 37 is the most common total; about 5% of NFL games end with a total of 37. The next most
common total is 41. The ranking of the other totals depends on how many years of recent data you decide to use. Some totals are rarer than others. The rarest totals in the range 30-59 are

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you are capable of making or finding a good line on a game, you might be able to find a good bet on a total. Totals have the reputation of
being easier to beat than sides.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure out how to approach this. So, the user is asking me to extract the most important information from a sports betting excerpt and create a knowledge card. They've provided


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
One percent of game totals land on exactly 32, and a
total of 56 is rarer yet. Pushes on Totals
Table 24 presents the fraction of games for which the total points actually scored in a game lands on a particular betting number, looking only
at games in which the total was predicted to be on or close to that number. “Close” was arbitrarily selected to mean two points. For example, the
denominators of the fractions in the 37 column are numbers of games in which the betting number was 35 to 39 inclusive, and the numerators are
the numbers of those games that ended with 37 points being scored. All games

Table 24 includes all regular season and playoff games, including Super Bowls. The data of table 24 are summarized in table 25. You are welcome to drop older years of past data from table 24 to

CURRENT SUMMARY:
One percent of game totals land on exactly 32, and a
total of 56 is rarer yet. Pushes on Totals
Table 24 presents the fraction of games for which the total points actually scored in a game lands on a particular betting number, looking only
at games in which the total was predicted to be on or close to that number.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided me with a specific excerpt and want me to extract the most important information. The use


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
So how big a deviation between your prediction and the posted O/U number do you need to overcome the book’s vig, assuming your
prediction is accurate? You need to gain 4.55 percent, the same as if you were picking a side, because you pay the same $110 to try to win $100. You can estimate the point at which you have an edge with the aid of table 25; you must pick up at least five percentage points to overcome the
book’s vig. As an example, if the true line on the total is 37, you can break even by betting under 37.5 or over 36.5. For other numbers, you generally
need one full point to break even or get a small edge. For example, if the true line on the total is 44.5, you can overcome the book’s vig betting
under 45.5. The only important exception is 39; if the 39 is involved, you need 1.5 p

CURRENT SUMMARY:
So how big a deviation between your prediction and the posted O/U number do you need to overcome the book’s vig, assuming your
prediction is accurate? You need to gain 4.55 percent, the same as if you were picking a side, because you pay the same $110 to try to win $100.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided me with a specific excerpt and want me to extract the most important information. The use


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A teaser is a parlay in which each team is given extra points against the spread. In bets involving NFL sides, six-point teasers are common
but you also can buy teasers for 6.5 points and seven points. Here is a example of how teasing works. Suppose the line is Cowboys +2. If you bet that team as part of a six-point teaser, you would be
betting on Cowboys +8. Cowboys +8 is more likely to cover than Cowboys +2, but the payoffs for teasers are lower than the payoffs for bets that
do not involve receiving extra points. I have never seen one-team teasers being offered, though any sportsbook could offer a one-team teaser if it wished. The only teasers of
which I am aware require the bettor to tease at least two teams. Some sportsbooks require you to tease at least three teams in the NFL. Payoff

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A teaser is a parlay in which each team is given extra points against the spread. In bets involving NFL sides, six-point teasers are common
but you also can buy teasers for 6.5 points and seven points.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt and want me to extract the most important information. The user has been


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Teasers are available on more than just NFL games. Six-point to seven-point teasers are also available on college football games,
sometimes for different payoffs than are used for NFL games. Teasers of four to five points are available on basketball games. Table 26 shows typical payoffs for teasers on NFL games. For example, you pick two teams for a six-point teaser. You risk $110 in an attempt to win $100. Each of your teams is given an additional six
points in addition to the spread off the board. Both teased teams must cover for you to win your bet. If one ties, you get your money back
regardless of what happens in the other game. This chapter examines what would have happened had you bet selected NFL teasers during 1999-2010. There is no guarantee that future
teams going off at those s

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Teasers are available on more than just NFL games. Six-point to seven-point teasers are also available on college football games,
sometimes for different payoffs than are used for NFL games.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided me with a specific excerpt and want me to extract the most important information. The use


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Teasers that would have been profitable had you bet them in the past may or may not
be profitable in the future. This chapter assumes you know only the lines on the games, and have done no handicapping. With handicapping you can do better, of
course. Frequency of Covers With More Points
To evaluate teasers, it’s helpful to know the frequency of actual game results coming close to the predicted results. See for example table 20
in chapter 14. Table 27 summarizes all the NFL regular-season games played over many seasons. It shows what your cover-lose-tie results would have
been had you been able to bet on both sides of every regular-season game with various numbers of extra points. The total of win, lose, and push
may not sum to 100% on some rows due to rounding. For example, had you bet bot

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Teasers that would have been profitable had you bet them in the past may or may not
be profitable in the future. This chapter assumes you know only the lines on the games, and have done no handicapping.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided me with a specific excerpt and want me to extract the most important information. The use


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
For example, had you bet both teams of every game at one more point away from the spread, table 27 says you would have won 53.0
percent of your bets, lost 45.4 percent of them, and tied on 1.6 percent of them. The first few points you get are the most valuable. Each additional point tends to add less value. For example, the value to you of the fifteenth
point is considerably less than the value of the first point. For seven points or less, each extra half point increases your chance of winning by approximately 1.4 percent. That’s consistent with the
average frequency of pushes with various spreads presented in table 20. Had you been given a half-point bonus on every team but been required to bet both teams of every game, you would have almost broken
even. (Breaking even requires winning 52

CURRENT SUMMARY:
For example, had you bet both teams of every game at one more point away from the spread, table 27 says you would have won 53.0
percent of your bets, lost 45.4 percent of them, and tied on 1.6 percent of them. The first few points you get are the most valuable.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided me with a specific excerpt and want me to extract the most important information. The use


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Had you been given a half-point bonus on every team but been required to bet both teams of every game, you would have almost broken
even. (Breaking even requires winning 52.4 percent of non-ties. You would have won 51.2 percent, lost 47.0 percent, and tied 1.8 percent, which
is 52.1 percent winners after removing ties.)
Another way of looking at that result: If you are a good enough handicapper to identify spreads that, on average, are off by more than a half
point, you are good enough to have an edge while risking $110 to try to win $100. Caution: Not all spreads are equally likely. In the NFL, by far the most common margin of victory is 3 points. Teasing into a Tie
Suppose you tease a +2 team up to +8. Suppose the final score is your team loses the game 21-13. After adding in your eight

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Had you been given a half-point bonus on every team but been required to bet both teams of every game, you would have almost broken
even. (Breaking even requires winning 52.4 percent of non-ties.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I need to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt, and I have to extract the most important information. The user has been cons


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
What happens to your teaser? If your teaser was for more than two teams, the pushing team is ignored and the teaser is treated as if it were made without that team’s being
a part of it. Thus a push would convert a three-team teaser into a two-team teaser. Two-team teasers in which one team is teased into a push become no action; your money is returned to you. So if you have teased two
teams and your first team loses, you still have a chance to get something back for your ticket: Root for the teased points to give your second team
a push. If your first team loses and your second team ties, you get your money back. If your first team loses and your second team covers, you
lose. That sounds irrational, but that’s the way it is. (Read the fine print before betting a two-team teaser; some Inter

CURRENT SUMMARY:
What happens to your teaser? If your teaser was for more than two teams, the pushing team is ignored and the teaser is treated as if it were made without that team’s being
a part of it.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt, and I have to extract the most important information. The user has been


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
That sounds irrational, but that’s the way it is. (Read the fine print before betting a two-team teaser; some Internet sportsbooks treat a tie and
a loser as a loser.)
Six-Point Teaser
Requirements for a Good Bet
Some sportsbooks pay 11:10 on six-point teasers, some pay even money, and some are 10:11 or -110. Table 28 presents the minimum required win rates for teasers, and is based on mathematics, not empirical data. As table 28 shows, the most
generous six-point teaser pay schedules require each team to cover 69.0 percent of the time for the bet to be break-even. For those sportsbooks
that pay even money or -110 on two-team teasers, you need teams that cover 70.7 percent or 72.4 percent. Sportsbooks offer six-point teasers of three teams at terms that range from +140 to +180. If you can

CURRENT SUMMARY:
That sounds irrational, but that’s the way it is. (Read the fine print before betting a two-team teaser; some Internet sportsbooks treat a tie and
a loser as a loser.)
Six-Point Teaser
Requirements for a Good Bet
Some sportsbooks pay 11:10 on six-point teasers, some pay even money, and some are 10:11 or -110.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I need to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided me with a specific excerpt and want me to extract the most important information. The user ha


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you can find +180 for a three-teamer, table 28
shows that you need to find teams that each have 70.9 percent or more chance of covering. If you tease your three teams at a sportsbook that
pays less than +180, you will need teams that cover with higher frequency to justify making the bet. You don’t want to merely meet those minimums; you want teams that cover more often than that so that your bets have positive EV. Tease All for 6 Points
On average during 1999-2010, when you were given six points, you had a 66.8 percent chance of covering, a 31.0 percent chance of losing,
and a 2.2 percent chance of pushing, as shown in table 27. That is not good enough to get an edge. Does that mean never betting on six-point teasers? It means you can’t select random teams for teasing, because teams on

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you can find +180 for a three-teamer, table 28
shows that you need to find teams that each have 70.9 percent or more chance of covering. If you tease your three teams at a sportsbook that
pays less than +180, you will need teams that cover with higher frequency to justify making the bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided me with a specific excerpt, and I have to extract the most important information. The use


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
It means you can’t select random teams for teasing, because teams on average
cover only 66.8 percent of the time if given six points. But just because the average is 66.8 percent does not mean that every team given six
points will have a 66.8 percent chance of covering. Eliminating Big Favs and Big Dogs
As is noted elsewhere in this book, the most common outcome of an NFL game is the favorite’s winning by three points. That happens in
about 10% of NFL games. Might you enhance your teaser chances if you consider only teams that will pick up fav-by-3 when teased? That is,
consider teams that would fail to cover the spread if the game resulted in the favorite’s winning the game by exactly three points, but would cover
the teased spread. An example is a two-point dog. If you bet a dog at +2 an

CURRENT SUMMARY:
It means you can’t select random teams for teasing, because teams on average
cover only 66.8 percent of the time if given six points. But just because the average is 66.8 percent does not mean that every team given six
points will have a 66.8 percent chance of covering.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided me with a specific excerpt, and I have to extract the most important information. The use


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But if you
tease that dog to +8 and the favorite wins the game by three points, your team covers the teased spread. To answer that question, 1999-2010 NFL game results are partitioned into three categories: big favorites, big dogs, and teams in the middle. The first category is teams favored by so many points that a six-point tease won’t capture the 3. The second category is dogs by enough points
that they already have the 3 and don’t need six points to capture it. The third category is all the teams that are left after the big favorites and big
dogs are removed. Teams favored by 9.5 or more, if given six points, would not cover the teased spread if winning the game by only three points. Dogs of 3.5 or more do not need any teased points to cover if the result of the game is the favorite wi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But if you
tease that dog to +8 and the favorite wins the game by three points, your team covers the teased spread. To answer that question, 1999-2010 NFL game results are partitioned into three categories: big favorites, big dogs, and teams in the middle.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided me with a specific excerpt, and I have to extract the most important information. The use


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Dogs of 3.5 or more do not need any teased points to cover if the result of the game is the favorite winning by three points. Teasing all the remaining teams, meaning teams going off at -9 to +3, over the years 1999-2010 would have resulted in covering a six-point
teased spread 68.0 percent of time, failing to cover 29.3 percent of the time, and pushing 2.7 percent of the time. Ignoring pushes, six-point teased
teams covered 69.9 percent of the time. Teasing only teams going off at -9 to +3 is an improvement over teasing all teams, and is good enough to get an edge over any sportsbook
that offers two-teamers at -110, which is why sportsbooks nowadays charge more than -110 for that teaser. Teasing to Gain the 3 and 7
Suppose the teaser candidates are reduced further. Suppose teasers are con

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Dogs of 3.5 or more do not need any teased points to cover if the result of the game is the favorite winning by three points. Teasing all the remaining teams, meaning teams going off at -9 to +3, over the years 1999-2010 would have resulted in covering a six-point
teased spread 68.0 percent of time, failing to cover 29.3 percent of the time, and pushing 2.7 percent of the time.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided me with a specific excerpt, and I have to extract the most important information. The use


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Suppose teasers are constructed using only teams that, when teased, will pick up both
the 3 and the 7. If you consider teasing teams that will pick up all of the 3 and all of the 7 if given six more points, you will be looking at teams that
are listed on the board as favorites of -7.5 to -8.5, and also dogs of +1.5 to +2.5. Table 20 indicates that picking up favorites by 3 to 7 points gains
about (10 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 5) or 23 percentage points. You pick up a sixth number also, either the 2 or the 8, for another 2 percentage points. Here are the data for the years 1999-2010. Pushes are excluded in the calculation of percent covers. NFL home favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 covered a six-point teased spread 128-42-3 for 75 percent covers. NFL home dogs of +1.5 to +2.5 covered a six-point teased spread

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Suppose teasers are constructed using only teams that, when teased, will pick up both
the 3 and the 7. If you consider teasing teams that will pick up all of the 3 and all of the 7 if given six more points, you will be looking at teams that
are listed on the board as favorites of -7.5 to -8.5, and also dogs of +1.5 to +2.5.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided me with a specific excerpt, and I need to extract the most important information. The user h


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
NFL visiting dogs of +1.5 to +2.5 covered a six-point teased spread 170-60-0 for 74 percent covers. NFL visiting favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 covered a six-point teased spread 43-25-0 for 63 percent covers. The total of the above four categories is 461-169-5 for 73.2 percent covers. Summary of Six-Point Teasers
Six-point teasers appear to be worthwhile bets only if two conditions hold. One necessary condition is you must select teams going off at spreads that allow the teased points to capture 3s and 7s. Another important condition is you must get good enough terms.

6.5-Point Teaser
Requirements for a Good Bet
It’s not difficult to find sportsbooks that charge -120 on 6.5-point teasers. As table 28 shows, two-team teasers at -120 require 73.9 percent
accuracy to be break-even. At a sportsboo

CURRENT SUMMARY:
NFL visiting dogs of +1.5 to +2.5 covered a six-point teased spread 170-60-0 for 74 percent covers. NFL visiting favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 covered a six-point teased spread 43-25-0 for 63 percent covers.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt, and I have to extract the most important information. The user has be


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
At a sportsbook that pays +160 on three-team teasers, you need 72.7 percent accuracy to break even. Tease All for 6.5
Table 27 says that for the games played in 1999-2010, giving each team 6.5 points resulted in a 69.0 percent chance of covering, a 29.9
percent chance of losing, and a 1.1 chance of pushing. Throwing out the ties meant covering a 6.5-point tease 69.8 percent of the time. That’s
consistent with the numbers in table 20, and is not good enough to get an edge. So you can’t profitably select random teams for 6.5-point teasing. Teasing to Gain the 3 and 7
Use the same rules to find teams to tease for 6.5 points as were worthwhile using to tease for six points. You want the teased points to capture the 3 and the 7. That means favorites of -7.5 to -9 and dogs of +1 to +2.5. The per

CURRENT SUMMARY:
At a sportsbook that pays +160 on three-team teasers, you need 72.7 percent accuracy to break even. Tease All for 6.5
Table 27 says that for the games played in 1999-2010, giving each team 6.5 points resulted in a 69.0 percent chance of covering, a 29.9
percent chance of losing, and a 1.1 chance of pushing.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt, and I have to extract the most important information. The user has been


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The percentage of covering ought to be higher than the rate at which six-pointers cover by the value of half of a 1, 2, 8, or 9, which according
to table 20 means you pick up an extra percentage point. Thus 6.5-pointers ought to cover at about one percent higher rate than six-pointers. Teasing Selected Spreads for 6.5 Points
Here are the data for the years 1999-2010. The percentages ignore pushes. NFL home favorites of -7.5 to -9 covered a 6.5-point teased spread 176-51-1 for 77.5 percent covers. NFL home dogs of +1 to +2.5 covered a 6.5-point teased spread 166-54-0 for 75 percent covers. NFL visiting dogs of +1 to +2.5 covered a 6.5-point teased spread 217-79-1 for 73 percent covers. NFL visiting favorites of -7.5 to -9 covered a 6.5-point teased spread 57-32-0 for 64 percent covers. The

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The percentage of covering ought to be higher than the rate at which six-pointers cover by the value of half of a 1, 2, 8, or 9, which according
to table 20 means you pick up an extra percentage point. Thus 6.5-pointers ought to cover at about one percent higher rate than six-pointers.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt, and I have to extract the most important information. The user has be


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Summary of 6.5-Point Teasers
6.5-point NFL teasers look almost as worthwhile as six-point teasers. Be sure that the extra points you pick up by teasing include the 3 and
the 7, and find a sportsbook that offers excellent terms. As a practical matter, the only time to tease for 6.5 points instead of six is when you want to tease a -9 favorite. Seven-Point Teaser
Requirements for a Good Bet
On seven-point NFL teasers, you may find sportsbooks that charge -130 or -140. As table 28 shows, two-team teasers at -130 require 75.2
percent accuracy to be break-even, and -140 requires 76.4 percent accuracy. If the sportsbook pays +150 on three-team teasers, you need 73.7
percent accuracy to break even. Tease All
Table 27 says that giving each team seven points resulted in a 70.0 percent chance of cov

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Summary of 6.5-Point Teasers
6.5-point NFL teasers look almost as worthwhile as six-point teasers. Be sure that the extra points you pick up by teasing include the 3 and
the 7, and find a sportsbook that offers excellent terms.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt, and I have to extract the most important information. The user has be


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Throwing out the ties meant covering a seven-point tease 71.0 percent of the time. That is not good enough to get an edge. You can’t select random teams for seven-point teasing. Teasing to Gain the 3 and 7
Use the same rules to find teams to tease for seven points as were worthwhile using to tease for six or 6.5 points. You want the teased points to capture the 3 and the 7. That means favorites of -7.5 to -9.5 and dogs of +1 to +2.5. (No NFL teams are ever
listed at +0.5 due to the rarity of a tie.)
The percentage of covering with seven points ought to be higher than the rate at which 6.5-pointers cover by the value of half of a 1, 2, 8, or 9,
which according to table 20 means you pick up an extra percentage point compared to 6.5-pointers. Teasing Selected Spreads for Seven Points
Here are

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Throwing out the ties meant covering a seven-point tease 71.0 percent of the time. That is not good enough to get an edge.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt, and I have to extract the most important information. The user has been


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
NFL home favorites of -7.5 to -9.5 covered a seven-point teased spread 229-68-3 for 77 percent covers. NFL home dogs of +1 to +2.5 covered a seven-point teased spread 166-53-1 for 76 percent covers. NFL visiting dogs of +1 to +2.5 covered a seven-point teased spread 218-78-1 for 76 percent covers. NFL visiting favorites of -7.5 to -9.5 covered a seven-point teased spread 66-37-0 for 64 percent covers. The total of the above four categories is 679-236-5 for 74.2 percent covers. Summary of Seven-Point Teasers

Seven-point NFL teasers to pick up both the 3 and the 7 are almost as worthwhile as six-point teasers, if you can get excellent terms. As a practical matter, the only time to tease for seven points instead of six is when you want to tease a -9.5 favorite. Choosing Teams to Tease
Select

CURRENT SUMMARY:
NFL home favorites of -7.5 to -9.5 covered a seven-point teased spread 229-68-3 for 77 percent covers. NFL home dogs of +1 to +2.5 covered a seven-point teased spread 166-53-1 for 76 percent covers.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt, and I have to extract the most important information. The user has be


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
To analyze the payoff schedule, use table 28. Choosing the Number of Teams
The most important step is finding a sportsbook with at least one good teaser price. Use table 28 to figure which teasers have the lowest
break-even cover rates, with lower being better. If you have identified a sportsbook at which teasers are worth betting, then see if there are any NFL teams worth teasing. You need at least
two; you cannot bet a one-team teaser. Select teams that will lose against the spread if the favorite wins the game by 3 or 7, but receiving the
teased points would change those two results into covers. That might affect your preference for number of points teased. Example: Suppose you have found two teams you would like to tease for six points, and the best odds you can find on two-team six-po

CURRENT SUMMARY:
To analyze the payoff schedule, use table 28. Choosing the Number of Teams
The most important step is finding a sportsbook with at least one good teaser price.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt, and I have to extract the most important information. The user has be


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The two-teamer at -120 requires 73.9
percent accuracy to break even. The three-teamer at +140 requires 74.7 percent accuracy to break even. Use of the rule of thumb that you pick up
an extra 1.0 percent by teasing for another half point would lead you to prefer to tease three teams for seven points for +140. You could split your money among multiple bets; you could combine your two great teaser prospects into a two-team six-pointer at -120, and
look for another team to combine with them for a three-team seven-pointer at +140. Additional Teams to Tease
When you are looking for another team to tease and have only choices that do not pick up both the 3 and the 7, look first at teams that need
the teased points to pick up the whole 3 and half the 7. Examples are any tease of a -7 favorite, or

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The two-teamer at -120 requires 73.9
percent accuracy to break even. The three-teamer at +140 requires 74.7 percent accuracy to break even.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt, and I have to extract the most important information. The user has be


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Home teams have performed better than visiting teams, though the sample size is not large enough for statistical significance. If you want to
tease a pick ’em team for seven points, you might prefer to tease the home team. The raw data that were used to assign cover rates to teasers are shown in table 29. You don’t really need table 29; I am including it in case
you want to delve further into the mysteries of teasers. The Win column means cover the spread if given an extra 5.5 points. The “by 6” column
means tie if given an extra six points. The “by 6.5” column means tie if given an extra 6.5 points. The “by 7” column means tie if given an extra
seven points. Lose means fail to cover even if given an extra 7.5 points. Low Scoring Versus High Scoring
Teams in games predicted to be low scori

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Home teams have performed better than visiting teams, though the sample size is not large enough for statistical significance. If you want to
tease a pick ’em team for seven points, you might prefer to tease the home team.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure out how to approach this. The user has provided a specific excerpt from a sports betting document and wants me to extract the most important information. They also want t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Preseason games are better for teasing than are regular-season games. Tease Teams In Different Games
Is there any inherent advantage or disadvantage involved in teasing two teams that are playing against each other? For example, should you

tease both teams in a pick ’em game? The answer is yes, it does make a difference. Teasing opponents in the same game is inferior to teasing teams not playing against each
other. Here is an easy way to understand why. Suppose you have identified two NFL teams that you think will benefit greatly from the added points
of a teaser. In order for your teaser to win, both of your teams must cover the teased spread. If one or both of your teams fail to beat the teased
spread, you lose your bet. What you would like to maximize is the probability that your secon

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Preseason games are better for teasing than are regular-season games. Tease Teams In Different Games
Is there any inherent advantage or disadvantage involved in teasing two teams that are playing against each other?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to figure out how to help the user with their query. They want me to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt they provided. The user has b


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
It does you no good for your second team to cover when your first team has already lost. Maximizing the probability of both of your
teams covering means minimizing the probability of one team covering while the other is losing, which means taking a chance on both teams
losing at the same time. Put some numbers on it. Suppose each of your teams covers the teased spread 80% of the time. Do you want one team to lose 20% of the
time, the other team to lose a different 20% of the time, and both of them to cover only 60% of the time? That’s what you get when you tease two
teams playing against each other. If you had teased two teams not involved in the same game and each beat the teased spread 80% of the time, they would both lose 4% of the
time and they would both cover 64% of the time. The pro

CURRENT SUMMARY:
It does you no good for your second team to cover when your first team has already lost. Maximizing the probability of both of your
teams covering means minimizing the probability of one team covering while the other is losing, which means taking a chance on both teams
losing at the same time.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt to work with, and I need to extract the most important information from i


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The probability of their both losing is equal to the increase in the probability of their both
covering. When you tease teams playing each other, such that at least one must cover, that “must cover” comes at the expense of a lower probability
that both cover. Conclusion: Tease teams not playing against each other. Internet Teaser Caution
Dunbar says: “Some books with ostensibly good teaser odds make those odds worthless by posting ‘off’ lines for teaser plays. Example:
5Dimes offers +100 2-teamers but forces you to take -9.5 or -10 on a team that is listed at -7.5 -110 for a straight bet.” Taking the 3 out of the
teased spread eliminates the value of the teaser.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The probability of their both losing is equal to the increase in the probability of their both
covering. When you tease teams playing each other, such that at least one must cover, that “must cover” comes at the expense of a lower probability
that both cover.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document based on the latest excerpt they've provided. Let me start by understanding the task. They want me to extract


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
This chapter looks at how Super Bowl champions have fared at the beginning of the following season. Table 30 lists the Super Bowl results. The reason for this chapter is that prior to publication of the first edition of this book in 2001, betting against the Super Bowl champion in the
first games of the new season was considered a smart move. If you know of an early publication of that advice, please tell me about it so that I can
cite it in a future edition. Betting against the defending champion has two items of logic favoring it. One is that bettors are likely to overestimate the strength of the
team that won the most recent Super Bowl. The other is that the champ’s opponent will be more motivated, resulting in a higher-than-normal level
of performance. Playing against the champion make

CURRENT SUMMARY:
This chapter looks at how Super Bowl champions have fared at the beginning of the following season. Table 30 lists the Super Bowl results.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt to work with, and I need to extract the most important information fro


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Playing against the champion makes the game special; but to the champion, the first game of the season is just another regularseason game. The factors that suggest betting against the Super Bowl champion in week 1 might carry over to subsequent games. This chapter looks at
what would have been the result of betting against the defending champion every week for the first six weeks of the season. Totals are presented also, though I am not aware that anyone has suggested betting on them. Some people suggest betting against a team that is looking ahead to its next game. This chapter gathers some data to test that notion. One
example of that is: If a team takes on the defending champion next week, it might underperform this week. The chapter presents results of games
played immediately before t

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Playing against the champion makes the game special; but to the champion, the first game of the season is just another regularseason game. The factors that suggest betting against the Super Bowl champion in week 1 might carry over to subsequent games.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to help someone refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've given me a specific excerpt to work with, and I need to extract the most important information fro