Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Your opponent gets a heads-up display
(HUD) with up to the second summaries of your betting history,
including dozens of relevant statistics and an AI analysis of your
strengths and weaknesses as a player. You get no HUD, and you
see an anonymized screenname and a cartoon avatar of a smiling
tortoise chewing some leaves. Even if you’re a pretty good poker player it’s going to be hard
for you to beat a competent and motivated opponent with this
information imbalance. Or think about how NFL games would play out if one team
could do all the analytics, the advance scouting, and watch all the
film they liked, while the other team was prohibited from doing
any of it. This is theoretically a huge advantage. Sportsbooks have
information about every bet every one of their customers has e

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Your opponent gets a heads-up display
(HUD) with up to the second summaries of your betting history,
including dozens of relevant statistics and an AI analysis of your
strengths and weaknesses as a player. You get no HUD, and you
see an anonymized screenname and a cartoon avatar of a smiling
tortoise chewing some leaves.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
They know every bet you’ve ever made, how you’ve done on
it, and so on. They also (at least currently in the United States—perhaps
these regulations should change) have the power to accept or
reject any bet at any time for any reason. Take this to its logical extreme. They’ve trained AIs now to
beat humans in darn near every game we’ve ever invented. How
hard do you think it would be to train an AI to beat any human
bettor in the “I have the entire company’s betting history and your
entire betting history and I get to accept or reject any bet as I
please and—oh yeah—I have a 5% hold on every market too”
game. The only reason you can win at all is because the current
software sucks and humans run the show. In practice a few sportsbooks are fairly good at using the
information at

CURRENT SUMMARY:
They know every bet you’ve ever made, how you’ve done on
it, and so on. They also (at least currently in the United States—perhaps
these regulations should change) have the power to accept or
reject any bet at any time for any reason.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
In practice a few sportsbooks are fairly good at using the
information at their disposal and many of them are pretty bad at
it. You’ll get to know which is which as you bet with them and
see their behavior. (The same way you can tell who is good at
poker and who is not by playing with them for a while.)
When you’re betting at a book that’s good with information
and is also willing to use every other tool at it its disposal to beat
you, watch out. Advantage #4: The hold. This is the most obvious advantage, of course. It’s also
enormous. And it’s insidious. One good way to think about how the hold kills you is that it
destroys your margin for error. If I define being “right” as
correctly assessing the percentage chance a bet will win, and being
“wrong” as missing a key factor that

CURRENT SUMMARY:
In practice a few sportsbooks are fairly good at using the
information at their disposal and many of them are pretty bad at
it. You’ll get to know which is which as you bet with them and
see their behavior.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
97
must be right versus wrong if you hope to do better than breakeven. Here’s what I mean. Say you make five bets, and you think all
five of the bets should win about 53% of the time. Since they win
more than the 52.4% break-even percentage on a -110 bet, you
make all five bets. And you handicapped these bets perfectly—except for one
game where there was a key injury affecting the line that you
didn’t realize until after you’d made your bet. When information
you fail to account for ends up being more significant than your
handicapping, your bets perform as if you’d chosen them
randomly. So we can expect about a 50% win rate on the “wrong”
bet. Your average win if you bet $110 on each of these five bets—
the four good ones and the one mistake—would then be

CURRENT SUMMARY:
97
must be right versus wrong if you hope to do better than breakeven. Here’s what I mean.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
= 262 – 261.8
= $0.20

That’s 20 cents. Basically break-even. You made four good
bets and one bad one, and the one mistake completely wiped out
all your good work. This is why limiting or eliminating the hold by creating
synthetic markets across sportsbooks is a fundamental skill. Because without doing that, you have to basically be perfect at
this if you want to win even a little bit.

98

CURRENT SUMMARY:
= 262 – 261.8
= $0.20

That’s 20 cents. Basically break-even.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Disadvantage #1: Attack surface. There’s a computer security concept called attack surface. Attack surface represents all the possible ways into a computer—
legitimate ways in like accessing a website or receiving email. The
more attack surface you have, the more chance there is you made
a mistake locking things down. And the more chance that your
computer will get hacked. Let’s say your job is to administer a single server. That server’s
job is to relay emails from one network to another network. It doesn’t run a website. It doesn’t host Minecraft games. It doesn’t mine cryptocurrency. It relays emails from one network
to another. The security principle states that you should remove as much
software (and hardware) functionality as possible from this server
that is not essential for

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Disadvantage #1: Attack surface. There’s a computer security concept called attack surface.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let me try to break this down step by step. So, the user has provided a query about refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document, specifically focusing on a given excerpt. The user


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Remove the ASIC Bitcoin mining hardware. Strip the
thing down so that it’s running only exactly what it needs to
perform its task and nothing more. Because if you leave that web server installed but you don’t
use it, you will neglect it. And then six months later a bug is
discovered in the web server that you aren’t paying attention to,
and a hacker exploits that bug to take control of the system. All
because something you didn’t use and didn’t need anyway was
sitting there neglected. For a sportsbook, derivative markets are attack surface. Every
additional alternative or related market a sportsbook wants to

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Remove the ASIC Bitcoin mining hardware. Strip the
thing down so that it’s running only exactly what it needs to
perform its task and nothing more.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
99
post is a potential vulnerability. Every one of them is sitting there
waiting for someone clever to correctly price the relationship
between the derivative and main markets and pick off the
mispriced markets. Not only that, but sportsbooks are addicted to these derivative
markets. They want more, more, more options for their
customers. But what they’re really offering is opportunity. Disadvantage #2: They must post their price and take
bets on either side at any time. If you’ve ever tried to sell stuff (and not get ripped off by the
vultures) you know that choosing the right price can be very
tricky. Price things too high, and your customers walk on by. Price
things too low, and you get hit. Haggling—while annoying to many Americans—is a solution
to this problem. The seller c

CURRENT SUMMARY:
99
post is a potential vulnerability. Every one of them is sitting there
waiting for someone clever to correctly price the relationship
between the derivative and main markets and pick off the
mispriced markets.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Then the parties can converge on a “fairer” price through
haggling. Well there’s no haggling in sports betting. Prices are posted on
hundreds of markets simultaneously, and the sportsbook’s
promise (not always upheld, mind you) is that you can bet any
available market at any time at the posted price. And most markets are two-way, which means there’s no safety
in posting a too-high price. The customer can effectively sell to
you at that price (minus the hold) by betting the other side. This is a pretty major disadvantage—particularly so if the
sportsbook likes to post zillions of markets including exotic
derivatives, alternate lines, and props. And obviously if the
sportsbook honors the implied promise and actually lets you bet
at the posted prices.

100

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Then the parties can converge on a “fairer” price through
haggling. Well there’s no haggling in sports betting.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The good faith promise of a sportsbook is that customers can
come and bet any posted line within the posted betting limits and
get the bet. To compensate the sportsbook for this admittedly
generous offer, they get to set a hold on every market—and they
can basically set the hold to whatever they choose. The hold is
clearly declared on the betting menu, and the customer can
calculate it easily using the method I described earlier in the book. Disadvantage #3: Talent is expensive. For now, until the sportsbook-run-by-AI dystopia comes to
fruition, there’s a human on the other side of your sports bets. That human is an employee of the sportsbook. That employee is
hired from a relatively small talent pool. As of the time of this writing, the best sports bettors can still
make seven fi

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The good faith promise of a sportsbook is that customers can
come and bet any posted line within the posted betting limits and
get the bet. To compensate the sportsbook for this admittedly
generous offer, they get to set a hold on every market—and they
can basically set the hold to whatever they choose.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
A good handful more can
make six figures per year. This is some of the best part of the
talent pool sportsbooks could hire from—but at least for now
they aren’t willing to offer six or seven figure compensation
packages to be competitive. Many of the people who are the best at this therefore tend not
to work for operators. They instead are the “adversaries.” It’s a
small talent pool to begin with, and then operators aren’t willing
to pay to compete for any of the best part of it. There are plenty of smart people working for sportsbooks, of
course, but maintaining a major sportsbook 24/7 is also a huge
job requiring the collaborative effort of many people, all with very
specialized skillsets. It’s just plain hard to fill all these roles with qualified
candidates. As a result, spo

CURRENT SUMMARY:
A good handful more can
make six figures per year. This is some of the best part of the
talent pool sportsbooks could hire from—but at least for now
they aren’t willing to offer six or seven figure compensation
packages to be competitive.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Sportsbooks are keenly aware of these disadvantages, and they
take a few countermeasures against their customers to mitigate
these disadvantages. Most of these countermeasures are
obvious—you can’t miss it if you’re being “countermeasured.”
However, there is a large countermeasure that many
sportsbooks take that I don’t believe is well understood, so I’m
going to go in depth on its repercussions here. The main deal that sportsbooks make is they put up both sides
of every bet, all the time. In exchange for this, they add a hold so
that they earn a profit as they buy and sell. However, sportsbooks
also sometimes add something else—a fixed time delay—to your
bets that really tilts the bargain in their favor. Most sportsbooks are set up to let bets of trivial size—maybe
$10 or $20—g

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Sportsbooks are keenly aware of these disadvantages, and they
take a few countermeasures against their customers to mitigate
these disadvantages. Most of these countermeasures are
obvious—you can’t miss it if you’re being “countermeasured.”
However, there is a large countermeasure that many
sportsbooks take that I don’t believe is well understood, so I’m
going to go in depth on its repercuss

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this step by step. First, I need to understand the main point of the provided excerpt. The excerpt talks about sportsbooks mitigating the disadvantages of certain aspects of spor


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Most sportsbooks are set up to let bets of trivial size—maybe
$10 or $20—go through immediately without review. But any
bets above a certain dollar threshold (this threshold often varies
depending on how the sportsbook has profiled you as a bettor—
the more of a threat they think you are, the lower the number) get
delayed. The delay is often just a fixed amount of time, like five or eight
seconds. That delay is there for a reason—and it’s not because it’s
customer-friendly
It’s a period where the sportsbook can gather market
information that you didn’t have when you submitted your
request for a bet. If it’s not clear how this helps the sportsbook

102

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Most sportsbooks are set up to let bets of trivial size—maybe
$10 or $20—go through immediately without review. But any
bets above a certain dollar threshold (this threshold often varies
depending on how the sportsbook has profiled you as a bettor—
the more of a threat they think you are, the lower the number) get
delayed.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
in a way that’s potentially unfair to the bettor, consider the stock
market. Say it was your job to trade stocks for a living. But every time
you wanted to buy or sell a stock, you had to submit your offer—
and it was locked in for fifteen seconds. You couldn’t withdraw
it during that time. You couldn’t change the price. You just had
to call your shot and then sit there for fifteen seconds to see if
someone wanted it. And if anyone took you up on your offer
within that fifteen seconds, you were committed. How do you think that would go for you? “I want to buy
Amazon for $1500 a share,” you’d say. Tick, tick, tick. The price
goes up to $1505. Tick, tick, tick. The price goes up to $1508. No one sold you any stock. Try again.
“I want to buy Amazon for $1500 a share,” you say again.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
in a way that’s potentially unfair to the bettor, consider the stock
market. Say it was your job to trade stocks for a living.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Congratulations. Hard to win with those rules, right? The stock market is obviously much bigger, faster, and more
liquid than any sports betting market, and that difference makes
a delay like that one absolutely crippling in stock markets whereas
it’s often merely bad for you in a sports market. But the principle is the same. How badly the delay hurts you
depends on how aggressively your counterparty (i.e., the
sportsbook) rejects bets when the information that comes
through during that delay period is bad for them. As a simple example, say halftime in an NBA game has just
started, and the Pistons open at -3.5 for the second half. You
think that’s a great line, so you get your bet in as soon as possible. Tick, tick, tick.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Congratulations. Hard to win with those rules, right?

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
103
Tick, tick, tick. Apparently, you weren’t the only one who liked Pistons -3.5
because it’s already moved to -4 at several other sportsbooks.
“REJECTED. Line has moved. Would you like to make the
bet at -4?” pops up on your sports betting app. You are annoyed, but you still like it at -4, so you say yes. Tick, tick, tick. Tick, tick, tick. Just as the delay ends, you see the line jump to -4.5 at
another sportsbook.
“REJECTED. Line has moved. Would you like to make the
bet at -4.5?”
You can see how this is a problem. This is incredibly
frustrating when it happens. What makes this a subtle but insidious problem for the bettor
is that this isn’t what usually happens when you bet into a
delay/approval. Most of the time, the clock ticks, the delay ends,
and your bet gets approved

CURRENT SUMMARY:
103
Tick, tick, tick. Apparently, you weren’t the only one who liked Pistons -3.5
because it’s already moved to -4 at several other sportsbooks.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The problem is, the bets that get rejected aren’t
randomly selected. They’re almost all going to be among your very best bets. That’s the entire point of this delay/approval process—it’s
designed to stop you from getting good bets. The more bets the
sportsbook rejects, the harder it will be for you to win, even if
you’re still getting most of your bets in. Any time you bet into a sportsbook with a delay/approval
mechanic in place, it costs you money. The smarter they are, and
the more aggressive they are, the more it hurts you. At some point
if they’re smart and aggressive enough about rejecting bets, you
just plain can’t win.

104

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The problem is, the bets that get rejected aren’t
randomly selected. They’re almost all going to be among your very best bets.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
It becomes a carnival game. It looks like you can win, but it’s
rigged in just the right way to make sure you can’t. Try to avoid betting into sportsbooks with delay/approval
processes. Unfortunately, the books that are soft in other ways
(big attack surface, weak pricing, and so on) also tend to use this
delay/approval process as well to try to paper over some of their
weaknesses. So it’s probably not the right idea to refuse outright
to bet into a delay/approval process. But don’t get lulled into a false sense of security about it either. If they reject your bets on any regular basis, your edge at that
sportsbook is not what it may seem. And if they’re sharp and
ruthless about it, you don’t have a fighting chance.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
It becomes a carnival game. It looks like you can win, but it’s
rigged in just the right way to make sure you can’t.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Sportsbooks have a lot of advantages over the bettor, but the
bettor has a few potential advantages also. Advantage #1: Specialization. Books put out markets in every major sport (and many minor
ones) and try to put out many markets including derivatives,
props, and in-play markets. Many sportsbooks run like the
cartoon character sticking a finger in the dike to plug a leak only
to have another one spring up and squirt them in the face. Bettors can specialize by sport. They can also specialize by
market—looking mostly at first halves, second halves, quarters,
props, in-game, and so on. Many of the biggest sports betting
success stories I’ve heard revolve around someone specializing in
a particular derivative market in a particular sport—second half
college basketball totals, for

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Sportsbooks have a lot of advantages over the bettor, but the
bettor has a few potential advantages also. Advantage #1: Specialization.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
105
Every single successful bettor I know uses this specialization
advantage to some extent or another. Many use it to an almost
extreme extent. Advantage #2: Modeling. I listed this as advantage #2 that sportsbooks have, but bettors
can turn the tables and turn it into an advantage for themselves. You can gain major edges through math. I want to be clear. Most mathematical models people build to
predict sports are utterly worthless for beating sports markets. This is even more likely to be true if the creator of the model
publishes it on the internet. They may be worthless because they’re just plain junk top to
bottom. But even if they’re not, and the model has real predictive
value, it may still be worthless for beating sports markets due to
noise and the hold. Every model makes

CURRENT SUMMARY:
105
Every single successful bettor I know uses this specialization
advantage to some extent or another. Many use it to an almost
extreme extent.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this step by step. The user is asking me to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt and the current summary, and they want the


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Every model makes decisions about what to include and
attempt to account for and what to ignore. Beyond this, there’s
always uncertainty in exactly how to account for each factor—or
even in how much a factor applies to a particular game. Take weather in baseball, for example. The hotter it is, the
thinner the air, and the more the ball carries. But when you try to
account for this in a model, you encounter complications. Temperature isn’t the only relevant weather factor in baseball. Wind, pressure, humidity, you name it—they all matter as well. And since each ballpark is unique in MLB, how each of these
weather factors interacts with the specific park adds another layer
of complexity. Your model will do the best job it can of accounting for this,
but at some point you have to call

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Every model makes decisions about what to include and
attempt to account for and what to ignore. Beyond this, there’s
always uncertainty in exactly how to account for each factor—or
even in how much a factor applies to a particular game.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Beyond this, when you’re modeling weather for a baseball
game, you’re really in the weather prediction business—in the
morning the weather information you are plugging into your
baseball model is probably whatever the National Weather
Service says. It’s a prediction of what the weather will be many
hours later in the evening. We all know there’s plenty of noise in
those predictions. And remember that the hold makes it so you have to be
“right” far more often than you’re “wrong” if you want to do
better than break-even. The more noise there is in your model,
the harder it is to hit that high percentage of “rights” you need to
win. Even if it’s a pretty darn good model. The random noise can
kill you. The holy grail is to identify a phenomenon that affects the
pricing of a betting

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Beyond this, when you’re modeling weather for a baseball
game, you’re really in the weather prediction business—in the
morning the weather information you are plugging into your
baseball model is probably whatever the National Weather
Service says. It’s a prediction of what the weather will be many
hours later in the evening.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The holy grail is to identify a phenomenon that affects the
pricing of a betting market, is predictable with relatively little
noise in it, but that isn’t well accounted for in the lines books use. Here are a few rapid fire examples of this sort of thing.
•
NBA fourth quarters. Books used to make the fourth
quarter line by taking the second half line and chopping it in
half. But that doesn’t work when one team is a big favorite,
because when the game is nearly put away, the winning team
tends to take it easy.
•
NFL halftime bets. You used to be able to bet on the
road team any time they received the second half kickoff. There
were two effects working together. First, home field advantage
is much stronger in the first half than the second, but the second
half lines were price

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The holy grail is to identify a phenomenon that affects the
pricing of a betting market, is predictable with relatively little
noise in it, but that isn’t well accounted for in the lines books use. Here are a few rapid fire examples of this sort of thing.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
They changed the clock rules that year, and the clock
would start after a change of possession play (i.e., after a punt). This caused the teams with the lead to play more conservatively
because they could run more time off the clock than they could
before the rule change. Teams that were behind didn’t adjust
correctly to become more aggressive. As a result, you could
blindly bet all second half unders that year. (They changed the
rule back the next year.)
Instead of just building a generalized mathematical model, you
build it with a focus on the particular phenomenon or angle you
hope to exploit to find winning bets. Sometimes the angle is so strong you don’t even need a model
to find the good bets. Other times when it’s a smaller effect, you
need to do a little math to sort the

CURRENT SUMMARY:
They changed the clock rules that year, and the clock
would start after a change of possession play (i.e., after a punt). This caused the teams with the lead to play more conservatively
because they could run more time off the clock than they could
before the rule change.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Advantage #3. Modern sportsbooks try to be available for betting for as many
hours in the day as possible. A closed sportsbook does no
business. If a sportsbook wants to be available around the clock,
however, obviously it must staff the book in shifts. Naturally, the
most talented and most senior employees will tend to get the
prime shifts with the most action. The graveyard shift will be
staffed with more junior employees. If you have flexibility in your own schedule, you may be able
to create an advantage for yourself by lining up your prime hours
with the graveyard hours at the book. It’s easier to win if you’re
playing against the B team.

108

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Advantage #3. Modern sportsbooks try to be available for betting for as many
hours in the day as possible.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this query step by step. The user has provided a detailed conversation history where they're asking to refine a sports betting knowledge card. They've been giving excerpts from d


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Beating sportsbooks is hard. They have a lot of advantages,
including a team of trained employees, software and mathematical
modeling, information about all their customers’ betting patterns
in real time, and most of all, the hold. They have some disadvantages as well, though. They are
spread very thin offering hundreds of markets in a dozen sports
that they will book either side of at any time. And their operating
budget often isn’t enough to ensure super talented people are
always manning the trading desk. Sportsbooks use a set of countermeasures to mitigate these
disadvantages. Hopefully as sports betting expands in the US,
state regulators will identify the most customer-unfriendly of
these practices and place restrictions on their use. Betting
delay/approval, in particular,

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Beating sportsbooks is hard. They have a lot of advantages,
including a team of trained employees, software and mathematical
modeling, information about all their customers’ betting patterns
in real time, and most of all, the hold.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
They can specialize by sport and market. They can build
mathematical models designed to exploit specific, consistent,
identifiable flaws in market pricing. And they can choose the
hours they work to align with times the sportsbooks have their
less experienced shifts at the helm. If you want to win at this, you absolutely must design your
approach to leverage your advantages against the sportsbook’s
disadvantages. If you just try to take the books head-on and blast
away, you will lose. Almost everyone loses. The more specific and well-developed you can make your
strengths, and the more you can point these strengths with a laser
focus at the sportsbooks’ weaknesses, the better a shot you got. Market Agreement and
Resistance

Before I get into the weeds there’s one more core marke

CURRENT SUMMARY:
They can specialize by sport and market. They can build
mathematical models designed to exploit specific, consistent,
identifiable flaws in market pricing.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
I started the book making a big deal
about how sports betting isn’t a one- or two-player game, but
rather a competitive, multiplayer game. While you are betting
directly against a sportsbook, and they are your most important
adversary in this game, you are indirectly also competing against
hundreds of other serious bettors trying to do the same thing you
are—find good bets. This mob of other bettors will have a
consistent and predictable effect on the lines you see—they bet
the good ones (and move the lines) and leave the bad ones. The mob effect doesn’t stop after you make a bet. It keeps
going, over time slowly squeezing more and more value out of
available markets. If you do bet a major market—an MLB moneyline or college
football point spread or NBA total—you can expect the l

CURRENT SUMMARY:
I started the book making a big deal
about how sports betting isn’t a one- or two-player game, but
rather a competitive, multiplayer game. While you are betting
directly against a sportsbook, and they are your most important
adversary in this game, you are indirectly also competing against
hundreds of other serious bettors trying to do the same thing you
are—find good bets.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
It keeps
going, over time slowly squeezing more and more value out of
available markets. If you do bet a major market—an MLB moneyline or college
football point spread or NBA total—you can expect the line to
keep moving after your bet. (I say “if” you bet a major market
because, again, the core of the strategy in this book will be to
avoid these major markets and try to find bets in related,
derivative and prop markets with less picked-through prices.)
This line movement after you bet isn’t random. It reflects
something of a consensus of all the serious bettors in the same
market.

110

CURRENT SUMMARY:
It keeps
going, over time slowly squeezing more and more value out of
available markets. If you do bet a major market—an MLB moneyline or college
football point spread or NBA total—you can expect the line to
keep moving after your bet.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Let’s say it’s a Tuesday evening in June, and a market maker
sportsbook has just posted moneyline markets for tomorrow’s
MLB games. Because you don’t value either your time or sanity,
you have been madly clicking refresh trying to get the very first
bets in on the virgin markets. You find a bet you like—Reds +138—and slam in your $100
before anyone else can grab it. The market maker moves the line
to +132, and you don’t like that bet as much, so you close your
laptop to go binge watch Gilmore Girls. The next morning, you grab ten of your smartest friends and
tell them about your bet. For simplicity, let’s say one of two things
can happen. First, is all ten of them can tell you what a great bet
you made. Second, they can all tell you it’s a terrible bet and that
you should be ash

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Let’s say it’s a Tuesday evening in June, and a market maker
sportsbook has just posted moneyline markets for tomorrow’s
MLB games. Because you don’t value either your time or sanity,
you have been madly clicking refresh trying to get the very first
bets in on the virgin markets.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Guess what. With just this information, I can already give you
a pretty good guess at whether your bet was good—i.e., that you
will tend to win on average over time if you make other bets that
are just as good. I don’t know anything about the Reds, don’t even
know who they’re playing, don’t know who is pitching, none of
it. The bet where your ten friends said you were a genius is a
good bet. The bet where they all said you’re an idiot is not. How is this good enough? How is it enough for me just to
know what ten of your friends think without knowing anything
else about the bet? You’re betting into a hold. The presumption with no other
information has to be that all bets are bad right? How does ten
friends liking the bet overcome that? Well, it’s important in this story that you’r

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Guess what. With just this information, I can already give you
a pretty good guess at whether your bet was good—i.e., that you
will tend to win on average over time if you make other bets that
are just as good.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
111
often—not the best. Despite the hold, it’s not at all rare to find
good bets into the opening line like this. There’s no strong bias from the picked over effect built into
the bet like there would be if you waited until a few minutes
before game time to bet. It’s entirely plausible you found a good
bet. Because it’s entirely plausible you found a good bet, I’m willing
to trust the unanimous opinion of ten independent smart people. That’s basically it. You think you found something good. You
found it in a situation where finding something good isn’t
particularly hard to do. Ten people agreed. It’s probably good. Likewise, if your ten friends think you messed up, you
probably did. It’s much less clear-cut if I consider situations where say six
friends like the bet and four don’

CURRENT SUMMARY:
111
often—not the best. Despite the hold, it’s not at all rare to find
good bets into the opening line like this.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
This is the basic idea behind the extremely important concepts
of market agreement and market resistance. In sports betting markets, the people giving you feedback
about your bet aren’t your friends. They’re other serious bettors
looking for bets in the same market. The easiest gauge of market agreement and resistance is what
happens to the line at market maker books after you make your
bet. The morning after your Reds +138 bet you wake up with that
Gilmore Girls glow and open your laptop back up to check
current prices on your bet. Let’s say you see prices between Reds
+115 and Reds +120 as the widely available numbers. Remember we’re supposed to immediately convert these to
break-even percentages, so let’s do that. Your bet +138 is 42%
break-even. The +120 is 45.5% and +115 is

CURRENT SUMMARY:
This is the basic idea behind the extremely important concepts
of market agreement and market resistance. In sports betting markets, the people giving you feedback
about your bet aren’t your friends.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this query. The user has provided a detailed conversation history where they're asking for help refining a knowledge card about sports betting. Each time, they've shared an excer


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
This means that your “friends,” the other folks out there who
bet MLB seriously, tended to agree more than disagree with your
bet. They predominantly made similar bets and moved the price
on the Reds substantially higher. The only bad news here is that
your choice to pass on betting again at Reds +132 may have been
a mistake. No doubt you know what’s coming next, but I have to say it
anyway. Now let’s say instead of seeing the price at Reds +120 or Reds
+115, you open your laptop and see prices between Reds +163
and Reds +170 out there. Those are break-even prices of 38%
and 37%. You bought your bet at 42 and now it’s going for
between 37 and 38. Your friends, the other MLB bettors, think you laid a fat one
on this bet and that you should be ashamed of yourself. Some people look

CURRENT SUMMARY:
This means that your “friends,” the other folks out there who
bet MLB seriously, tended to agree more than disagree with your
bet. They predominantly made similar bets and moved the price
on the Reds substantially higher.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
113
It’s not a sign that the world has temporarily gone insane. It is
absolutely not a sign that Christmas is coming early this year. It means that whatever process you used to decide that Reds
+138 was a good bet was wrong. Maybe it’s a good process in
90% of games, but in this particular game something special is
going on that makes the process bad. Or maybe it’s just a total
garbage process that produces bad bets right and left. Either way market resistance is a massive red flag that you’re
missing something, and the best thing you can do is stop betting
into the resistance and instead try to figure out what you may have
gotten wrong. Usually you don’t want to start doing the post-mortem on
your bad bets until the market closes. It’s possible that the line
will move back towa

CURRENT SUMMARY:
113
It’s not a sign that the world has temporarily gone insane. It is
absolutely not a sign that Christmas is coming early this year.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
There are many reasons a line can move one
way at first and then move the other way later. A common way to judge whether in general you are finding
good bets in major markets is by looking at your closing line value
(CLV). You are looking at the price you got on your bet and
comparing it to the price available at market maker books when
the market closed and the game started. If in general you are getting a substantially better price on your
bets than what’s available at closing, that’s good. It means that
you are usually getting market agreement. If it’s a mixed bag, that’s a bad sign. It means that you are
probably not “right” with your bets often enough to overcome
the sportsbook’s hold. For most people, getting substantial, good average CLV on
bets over a period (at least hun

CURRENT SUMMARY:
There are many reasons a line can move one
way at first and then move the other way later. A common way to judge whether in general you are finding
good bets in major markets is by looking at your closing line value
(CLV).

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I need to help the user refine a knowledge card based on the provided excerpt from a sports betting document. The user wants the card to be in a specific format with a summary, key points, an


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
What your “smart friends,” the other serious bettors, think of
your bets is indeed a very strong predictor of long-term success. There are some exceptions to this rule about CLV, most of
which involve being an end boss of one sort or another in a
market. For most people reading this book, however, the
following will be true. You want to see market agreement on most of the bets you
make into any major market (point spread, moneyline, total, first
half markets). The more market agreement, the better. Any time
you get substantial market resistance, that’s a big red flag. Stop
betting. Look further into the situation and try to figure out why
other smart people think you’re nuts. If you look at all the bets you’ve made, and you have an
average closing line value of at least half the

CURRENT SUMMARY:
What your “smart friends,” the other serious bettors, think of
your bets is indeed a very strong predictor of long-term success. There are some exceptions to this rule about CLV, most of
which involve being an end boss of one sort or another in a
market.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy to l


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you look at all the bets you’ve made, and you have an
average closing line value of at least half the hold, you’re probably
on the right track. For example, if you’ve bet into a market with
a 4% hold, and you bet it at 42% break-even and it closed at 45%
break-even, then it moved 3% in your favor, which is more than
half the hold. That’s good. One bet isn’t remotely enough sample to draw a
conclusion though. Once you’ve made hundreds of bets, and you
average the CLV for all your bets and you get more than half the
hold, that’s promising. Finally, this concept of market agreement and resistance, while
extremely important, applies only when there’s a true, liquid
market. That is, when there’s a market maker who is actively
taking bets on both sides. If you make an NFL point spr

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you look at all the bets you’ve made, and you have an
average closing line value of at least half the hold, you’re probably
on the right track. For example, if you’ve bet into a market with
a 4% hold, and you bet it at 42% break-even and it closed at 45%
break-even, then it moved 3% in your favor, which is more than
half the hold.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
115
and often well-bankrolled people looked at your bet and shrugged
their shoulders. If you make a bet on total rushing attempts by the backup
running back on the Jets at retail book XYZ on Friday, and it
closes on Sunday with the line unchanged, that means little to
nothing. It’s possible not a single other serious bettor even looked
at that bet you made. It’s also possible a few others did see it,
found the same bet you did, blasted it like you did, but XYZ has
a policy not to move their lines on action. (Yes, this is a policy
some retail sportsbooks have.)
Market agreement and resistance is the difference between
winning and losing. But only on bets where there’s actually a
market. Strong Markets vs Weak
Markets

Now let’s talk about finding bets without a market that us

CURRENT SUMMARY:
115
and often well-bankrolled people looked at your bet and shrugged
their shoulders. If you make a bet on total rushing attempts by the backup
running back on the Jets at retail book XYZ on Friday, and it
closes on Sunday with the line unchanged, that means little to
nothing.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, I need to help the user by analyzing their query and providing a detailed thought process. They provided a history of their interactions, showing that they're asking about refining a knowledge c


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
To win at sports betting, attack weak markets. You attack a
market either by having more information than whoever made
the market, or by using widely available information better. You
have to learn to tell the difference between strong and weak
markets, both overall and at a particular book. Different sports
have different markets, and there are often both strong and weak
markets within a sport.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
To win at sports betting, attack weak markets. You attack a
market either by having more information than whoever made
the market, or by using widely available information better.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
117
is weaker because there’s more chance that the action that one
book has seen happens to be lopsided for one reason or another
(one particularly big-betting recreational player for instance). Once you add a second, third, and fourth sportsbook making
lines the old-fashioned way, the market gets strong quickly. Now
lopsided action at one book won’t skew a market because there
are other options to copy from. Also, when there are multiple
market makers they can’t get too far off one another or arbitrage
bettors will step in and bet the lines back into alignment. English Premier League soccer is an example of a sport with
multiple market makers. Smaller and US-only sports will tend to have only a single
market maker—though you can’t take that for granted. You need
to dig a little

CURRENT SUMMARY:
117
is weaker because there’s more chance that the action that one
book has seen happens to be lopsided for one reason or another
(one particularly big-betting recreational player for instance). Once you add a second, third, and fourth sportsbook making
lines the old-fashioned way, the market gets strong quickly.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
You need
to dig a little and figure out which books are making markets for
which sports. Large overall limits

The bigger the betting limits in a market, the more cheese there
is at the end of the maze for any bettors who want to put in the
time and effort to build models, monitor markets, and so on. All
other things equal, the bigger the limits in a market, the stronger
it will be, and the more it will attract top talent to compete in the
market. Also, the more games there are in a season, the greater
the payoff for putting in the work. Sports with large limits include NBA and some major soccer
leagues.

118

CURRENT SUMMARY:
You need
to dig a little and figure out which books are making markets for
which sports. Large overall limits

The bigger the betting limits in a market, the more cheese there
is at the end of the maze for any bettors who want to put in the
time and effort to build models, monitor markets, and so on.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Widely available information

The easier it is to come by reliable information on the market, the
stronger it will be on average. Compare injury information in the
NFL to that in college football. Lower hold at market making books

Market making books like to attract lots of betting volume, and
one way they do that is to offer lower hold on some markets. But
typically they have different holds on different markets. The
lower the hold on a market, again all things equal, the stronger it
will be. NFL sides (point spreads and moneylines) tend to have
lower hold markets at market makers than totals do. The lower
hold increases betting volume and makes the price discovery
more accurate. MLB moneylines are another market (versus totals and first
five inning markets) with generally

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Widely available information

The easier it is to come by reliable information on the market, the
stronger it will be on average. Compare injury information in the
NFL to that in college football.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
119

Small overall limits

Many markets have limits that are too small for most sports
bettors with a track record of success to bother with. These can
be derivative and prop markets on major sports or all markets on
small sports. An example might be whatever new professional
football league someone has decided to start this year to try to
compete with the NFL. Little available data

When professional bettors attack a new market, they’ll often look
to build a predictive model based on the available data for the
sport. Sports with little or no available data will make building a
model like that difficult, and therefore the entire sport will tend
to draw somewhat less interest from the usual suspects. Combine
that with low overall limits, and you’ll likely have yourself a wea

CURRENT SUMMARY:
119

Small overall limits

Many markets have limits that are too small for most sports
bettors with a track record of success to bother with. These can
be derivative and prop markets on major sports or all markets on
small sports.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Very large public interest

So far hopefully these things that make markets strong or weak
are relatively intuitive. Popular markets served by multiple market
maker books and big limits and low holds tend to be strong. Weird, niche, exotic markets, or those with little available
information and data tend to be weaker. This one is the only sort
of logical inconsistency with that basic idea. When markets attract

120

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Very large public interest

So far hopefully these things that make markets strong or weak
are relatively intuitive. Popular markets served by multiple market
maker books and big limits and low holds tend to be strong.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this step by step. The user is asking me to refine a knowledge card based on a sports betting document. They've provided a specific excerpt and a current summary, and they want t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
an enormous amount of public interest, sometimes the weight of
public money can weaken the market somewhat. Super Bowls and World Cups—despite otherwise meeting the
criteria for very strong markets—get hit by the public money
factor to a major degree and therefore aren’t nearly as strong
markets as they otherwise would be. To a lesser extent, major soccer leagues and NFL also get the
public money weakening effect even during the regular season. To be specific, the effect here is that for a normal, run of the
mill game, if the weight of public money begins to skew a line at
a market maker, sharp bettors have plenty enough in reserve to
blast that line back to where they think it should be. But if there
is enormous public interest, eventually the weight of the public
money will ove

CURRENT SUMMARY:
an enormous amount of public interest, sometimes the weight of
public money can weaken the market somewhat. Super Bowls and World Cups—despite otherwise meeting the
criteria for very strong markets—get hit by the public money
factor to a major degree and therefore aren’t nearly as strong
markets as they otherwise would be.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
121
You can look at how frequently the lines move. In general,
frequent line moves correlate with stronger markets. Every
movement is a price adjustment—the adjustments will tend
toward efficiency over time. Fewer line movements mean less
efficiency. Sometimes sportsbooks will behave as market makers and rely
on price discovery for one or two markets but not for the rest. Nevada sportsbooks, for example, take a whole lot of action on
the UFC and tend to act as market makers for these fights more
than they might for something like Mexican soccer.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
121
You can look at how frequently the lines move. In general,
frequent line moves correlate with stronger markets.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
These are just rules of thumb, of course. NBA sides are typically
a very tough, strong market. But theoretically you could find a
sportsbook that updates their lines only once an hour or so. Or
maybe you might expect Russian hockey to be a weak market at
your sportsbook, but the employee they’ve put in charge of that
market happens to be a huge fan of the league, follows the news
very closely, handicaps all the games himself, and bets it profitably
on the side. You never know for sure what kind of market you’re looking
at until you follow it for a while, bet into it a few times, and see
how it behaves. Strong markets can frustrate you at every turn,
and weak markets can feel like you’re stealing every time you get
a bet accepted. If you take one thing from this chapter, however,

CURRENT SUMMARY:
These are just rules of thumb, of course. NBA sides are typically
a very tough, strong market.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Strong
markets deserve your respect. Related Markets

For most American sports, sportsbooks deal three major markets
for each game. They deal one total market and two sides. The
total represents a median outcome of the game. Bets on either
side are priced at close to 50% break-even percentage (with hold
added from there). In football and basketball, the sides are a moneyline and a
point spread. The point spread also represents the median
outcome of the game. In baseball and hockey, the sides are a moneyline and a run or
puck line, where the run or puck line are fixed at 1.5 and do not
represent a median outcome. Mathematically, there’s nothing special about these three
markets. These markets are chosen because they’re interesting to
bettors. “Who will win the game” is the core

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Strong
markets deserve your respect. Related Markets

For most American sports, sportsbooks deal three major markets
for each game.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
These markets are chosen because they’re interesting to
bettors. “Who will win the game” is the core bet on any sport, so
moneylines are always interesting. But when one team is a huge
favorite over the other, you get into that situation where you have
to lay a big price to bet the favorite, which isn’t fun for most
people. Both the point spread and the run and puck lines are designed
to offer an alternative, interesting bet when the moneyline breakeven percentage on a favorite is say 60% or higher. That’s all they
do. There’s nothing magic about them. Whenever the game is equally matched to begin with—say the
moneyline break-even percentage is around 54% on the

CURRENT SUMMARY:
These markets are chosen because they’re interesting to
bettors. “Who will win the game” is the core bet on any sport, so
moneylines are always interesting.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." It seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy to lose, but I'm n


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
123
favorite—there isn’t much purpose for the point spread or run
and puck line markets. At least not for most bettors. It’s easy to
bet either side of the moneyline, and the second line is sort of
redundant. Sportsbooks offer the markets anyway on these games
because why not, and people do still bet them. One thing that makes multiple markets on the same game
interesting is that the prices are related. Prices between any two
different side bets will always be strongly related to one another.
(The pricing on side and total bets is also related, though the
strength of the relationship can vary from extremely strong to
barely at all depending on the sport and teams involved.)
Think about an NFL game where the point spread is currently
the home team -1. Books are offering either s

CURRENT SUMMARY:
123
favorite—there isn’t much purpose for the point spread or run
and puck line markets. At least not for most bettors.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
What should the moneyline market look like? A moneyline bet on the favorite and a -1 bet on the favorite
grade the same way in all game outcomes except for two: the
favorite wins by exactly one point or the game ends in a tie. If the favorite wins by 1, the spread bet pushes, but the
moneyline bet wins. If the game ties, then then spread bet loses
and the moneyline bet pushes. Because the bets are so similar, it’s obvious they should have
very similar break-even percentages. The moneyline bet on the
favorite wins slightly more often than the -1 bet. So the moneyline
bet should have a higher break-even percentage than the -1 bet—
but by how much? It depends on the relevant push rates. A push rate is the
percentage of time a given bet will push—that is how often the
game lands on ei

CURRENT SUMMARY:
What should the moneyline market look like? A moneyline bet on the favorite and a -1 bet on the favorite
grade the same way in all game outcomes except for two: the
favorite wins by exactly one point or the game ends in a tie.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
lines from the past and see how often these games tie or land on
the favorite winning by 1. For this, you need data. If you want to win at sports, you need
at least some access to data. I don’t think it’s realistic to have no
data at all at your disposal and expect to find any edges
consistently. The type of data you need (and the difficulty in
obtaining it) varies based on the type of edges you are looking for. There are many free and small fee websites that can aid in cutting
the data gap. But the most basic dataset you will need is a database of game
scores (by quarter, half, inning, or period) and closing lines. For
this NFL example above, say you have a dataset of NFL games. For each game over the last ten years, you have each team’s
scoring broken down by quarter, and you ha

CURRENT SUMMARY:
lines from the past and see how often these games tie or land on
the favorite winning by 1. For this, you need data.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
For
this NFL example above, say you have a dataset of NFL games. For each game over the last ten years, you have each team’s
scoring broken down by quarter, and you have the closing point
spread and total for each game. (You would choose from the lines
at books known for making the NFL markets when choosing
what spreads and totals you used.)
How to acquire a dataset like this is a bit beyond the scope of
what I want to talk about here. But no doubt you can find simple
datasets like the one I described available—and searchable—
either for free or pay on websites. Once you have your data, you look at games that closed
around PK—maybe games where the home team closed
somewhere between +2 and -2. Then you look at what percentage
of the time those games ended in a tie or with the hom

CURRENT SUMMARY:
For
this NFL example above, say you have a dataset of NFL games. For each game over the last ten years, you have each team’s
scoring broken down by quarter, and you have the closing point
spread and total for each game.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Then you look at what percentage
of the time those games ended in a tie or with the home team
winning by exactly 1 point. (Actually, if you do this, you’ll find
that you want to use a much wider range of spreads than just +2
to -2 to get a larger sample of data. It so happens that the push
rates don’t change much even as the lines get substantially higher. This is something you can only learn by playing with the data.)
For the sake of argument, let’s say 0.5 percent of those games
ended in a tie, and 2.5 percent of those games ended in a home

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Then you look at what percentage
of the time those games ended in a tie or with the home team
winning by exactly 1 point. (Actually, if you do this, you’ll find
that you want to use a much wider range of spreads than just +2
to -2 to get a larger sample of data.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
125
team win by 1 point. (Here’s a place where changes in the game
can change the answers over time. Recently the NFL made
changes to the overtime rules that made tie games more likely. If
you used data from years prior to this change in your dataset,
you’d have to account for the effect of this rule change in some
way.)
Let’s say you think a 50% break-even moneyline is a fair price. That is, you think the game is an absolute toss-up. What should
the break-even price on the home team -1 be? If the moneyline is dead even and the game ties 0.5 percent of
the time, that implies that the road team wins 49.75% and the
home team wins 49.75% (and a moneyline bet pushes 0.5%). If I assume that the home team will win by exactly 1 about
2.5% of the time, then I have our estimates of the f

CURRENT SUMMARY:
125
team win by 1 point. (Here’s a place where changes in the game
can change the answers over time.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If the moneyline is dead even and the game ties 0.5 percent of
the time, that implies that the road team wins 49.75% and the
home team wins 49.75% (and a moneyline bet pushes 0.5%). If I assume that the home team will win by exactly 1 about
2.5% of the time, then I have our estimates of the four relevant
outcomes as follows:

Road team wins 49.75%
Tie 0.5%
Home team wins by 1 point 2.5%
Home team wins by more than 1 point 47.25%

A bet on home team -1 would win 47.25% and lose 50.25%
while pushing 2.5%. The break-even percentage is therefore

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If the moneyline is dead even and the game ties 0.5 percent of
the time, that implies that the road team wins 49.75% and the
home team wins 49.75% (and a moneyline bet pushes 0.5%). If I assume that the home team will win by exactly 1 about
2.5% of the time, then I have our estimates of the four relevant
outcomes as follows:

Road team wins 49.75%
Tie 0.5%
Home team wins by 1 point 2.5%
H

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
The key concept is that the point spread and moneyline are
related markets. It would make no sense for an NFL home team
to be -1 -110 on the spread, but -135 on the moneyline. There’s a
strong relationship between these prices that’s determined mostly
by the rules of an NFL game. Similar relationships can be established between arbitrary
point spreads, like for instance between an NFL underdog that’s
+3.5 and the same team on a teaser +9.5. You can estimate how
often the game will land on a number from 4 through 9 and from
that estimate work back what the fair pricing relationship should
be between these two bets. First half lines and full game lines have similar relationships,
and generally the pricing between these markets is strongly linked. The idea that you can reliably pric

CURRENT SUMMARY:
The key concept is that the point spread and moneyline are
related markets. It would make no sense for an NFL home team
to be -1 -110 on the spread, but -135 on the moneyline.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this step by step. So, the user has provided a query where they want to refine a knowledge card for a sports betting document. The excerpt they've given is about understanding th


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
127
For the most part, these relationships are remarkably
consistent from game to game. If you consume sports betting
media, you’ll often hear people say things like, “I think the Blazers
will win outright, but I think LeBron and the Lakers will keep it
close enough that I’m going to bet the middle—favorite on the
moneyline but dog on the spread.”
For the most part, this sort of logic is nonsense. The Lakers,
with or without LeBron, are likely to be exactly no better or worse
at “keeping it close” than any other similarly sized NBA
underdog. The relationship between the moneyline and spread is
determined almost entirely by the rules of the NBA and the
relative uniformity of talent and professionalism in the league. I say almost entirely, because every so often there’s a
legiti

CURRENT SUMMARY:
127
For the most part, these relationships are remarkably
consistent from game to game. If you consume sports betting
media, you’ll often hear people say things like, “I think the Blazers
will win outright, but I think LeBron and the Lakers will keep it
close enough that I’m going to bet the middle—favorite on the
moneyline but dog on the spread.”
For the most part, this sort of logic is no

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
But in this case, the exception proves the rule. Learn to price
related markets against one another. It’s a fundamental tool of the
successful sports bettor’s toolkit. The Betting Menu

The betting menu is exactly what it sounds like—the list of bets
a sportsbook offers and the current prices of these bets. What is
implied when a sportsbook lists a bet is that anyone can choose
any bet on the menu and bet it at the listed price for any amount
up to the posted betting limit for that bet. In exchange for this
generous offer, the sportsbook gets to place a hold (of the size of
their choosing) on every market. I’ve already mentioned that sportsbooks don’t always hold up
their end of the deal on this, so I won’t beat that dead horse here. In the old days, which really wasn’t too long

CURRENT SUMMARY:
But in this case, the exception proves the rule. Learn to price
related markets against one another.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Maybe a total. Maybe a first half point
spread, moneyline, total. For key, televised games, a second half
point spread and total. For very high-profile games, maybe a prop or two, or first
quarter point spread and total. This has changed, however. Modern betting menus have
absolutely exploded with options since those days. The reason
boils down to an essential business problem that sportsbooks
have. Let’s set aside books that run the market making business
model for now, since they have a different set of business
problems.

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Maybe a total. Maybe a first half point
spread, moneyline, total.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
129
Say you’re a sportsbook that runs the retail business model. And say you operate in a state that doesn’t artificially limit
competition by restricting the available licenses to just one or two. Your problem, in business terms, is that you have no moat. Your product is the bets you offer to your customers. The
moment you are successful, a competitor will pop up trying to
steal your market share. Anyone can put up the same markets
with the same prices you do, the same way you do it. There’s nothing special about how you line your bets. The
lines come from the market maker books just like everyone else’s. There’s not much you can do different there without exposing
yourself to being easily beaten. You theoretically could reduce your hold to compete on price,
but that’s a risky str

CURRENT SUMMARY:
129
Say you’re a sportsbook that runs the retail business model. And say you operate in a state that doesn’t artificially limit
competition by restricting the available licenses to just one or two.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're eas


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
Doing this simultaneously cuts your
profit margin on all the bets you take while also preferentially
makes your sportsbook attractive to the smartest bettors. If you
don’t have superior talent behind the counter, you could easily
discount yourself right out of business. You could build better software than your competitors. That’s
a real potential competitive advantage. If your app or your web
client is slick looking, easy to use, engaging, customers may prefer
your sportsbook to the competitors even if your actual bets and
prices are basically the same. But good software engineers are
expensive, and again this route is very risky. If you invest in this
potential advantage and whiff—building some very expensive
software that in the end turns out to be not really any better than

CURRENT SUMMARY:
Doing this simultaneously cuts your
profit margin on all the bets you take while also preferentially
makes your sportsbook attractive to the smartest bettors. If you
don’t have superior talent behind the counter, you could easily
discount yourself right out of business.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Okay, so I'm trying to understand this advice about never betting parlays because they're for "suckers." At first glance, it seems like the person is saying that parlays are bad because they're easy t


Question:
You are refining a knowledge card for a sports betting document. Extract the most important information.

EXCERPT:
If you invest in this
potential advantage and whiff—building some very expensive
software that in the end turns out to be not really any better than
the competitors’—there’s a good chance you spend yourself out
of business. You could spend on marketing to build a brand that attracts
and keeps customers even though your product is basically the
same as the next person’s. This is the main route many retail
sportsbooks take. In markets where it’s legal to do so,

130

CURRENT SUMMARY:
If you invest in this
potential advantage and whiff—building some very expensive
software that in the end turns out to be not really any better than
the competitors’—there’s a good chance you spend yourself out
of business. You could spend on marketing to build a brand that attracts
and keeps customers even though your product is basically the
same as the next person’s.

Provide an improved knowledge card in this exact format:
Summary: <1-2 sentences capturing the main point about sports betting>
Key Points:
- <concise bullet 1>
- <concise bullet 2>
- <concise bullet 3>
Themes: theme1, theme2, theme3

Begin the card now:

Alright, let's tackle this step by step. The user is asking me to refine a knowledge card based on a sports betting document. They've provided an excerpt and a current summary, and they want the impro