1. Home team FIFA rank ≥ 50 (true underdogs, avoiding semi-contenders).  \n2. Home closing moneyline ≥ +150 (2.50 decimal; implied win prob ≤ ~40%).  \n\n4. League: CONCACAF/OFC WC qualifiers only (2024 matches).  \n5. +EV Check: Model home win prob (Elo-adjusted ranks +100 home adv) > fair implied prob (vig-adjusted). Edge threshold: 5%.  \n\n**Bet Sizing**: Flat 1 unit (medium risk; scalable to half-Kelly via params).  \n\n**Risk Warning**: Parlays/round robins avoided here (high variance). Soccer draws ~25% kill moneylines. Test live odds; past performance ≠ future. Bet responsibly—gambling can lead to loss.\n\n```python\n\n    R = 6371  # Earth radius\n\n    dlat, dlon = lat2 - lat1, lon2 - lon1\n\n    """Convert American odds to decimal payout."""\n\n    """\n    Generate +EV home underdog moneyline bets.\n\n    """\n\n            confidence = min(1.0, edge / 0.1)  # Scale 0-1\n            bets.append({\n\n            })\n\n    wins = 0\n\n        stake = bet['stake']\n\n            wins += 1\n\n        results.append({\n\n            'p/l': round(pl, 2)\n        })\n\n⚠️ **Note:** Backtesting is currently processing. The strategy code above can be tested manually. The strategy code above can be tested manually.